新疆头屯河流域水沙特性与减沙治理

本文通过对头屯河流域山区各水文实测水文，泥沙资料的分析比较，揭示了头屯河水沙运移规律，指出了头屯河上游产水，中游产沙，水沙异源的特点，进而地实才考察测量的基础上，结合流域自然特点，提出了工程，生物措施相结合的减沙治理方案和在流域不同地段的具本治理措施。     

非平衡热力学在短期灾害性天气预报中的应用

综述了非平衡热力学应用于天气预报的若干进程以及在短期灾害性天气预报应用中的明显效果。     

“数字地球”科学工程

“数字地球”是集科学、技术和工程于一体的一项宏伟的科学体系。“数字地球”由基础研究、技术支撑和科学工程三部分组成,其中科学工程是“数字地球”的核心和目标。文章在我国“数字地球”科学工程现状分析的基础上,结合国情,对我国“数字地球”科学工程的发展提出了建议。     

未来的天气气候预测体系

天气气候预测中的不确定性是不可避免的。它一方面给用户或有关决策者带来很大的困难，同时也给科学工作者提出了新的研究课题。文章较为系统地评述了近几年出现的关于如何发展未来气象预测体系的若干观点，根据风险经济学和决策理论，构建了一个未来天气气候预测体系的概念模型。其主要思想是将气象预测过程同用户决策过程有机地结合起来，充分利用来自用户的知识和风险管理经验，形成一个相互作用协同发展的预测体系。     

全球观测资料质量监视评估

全球观测资料质量监视评估系统是为监视评估国家气象中心所接收的全球气象观测资料的质量而设计开发的。该系统以资料同化的6小时预报场为背景场，计算观测资料与背景场的偏差；运用质量控制技术排除观测资料中的可能是错误的资料；实时和非实时地统计分析各类观测报告的状况和观测资料的质量。采用的质量控制技术和统计分析方法都尽量和国际上发达气象中心相一致。所有产品都以图表形式在气象系统内部web网页上发布。该系统应用于日常观测资料质量监视评估及中国区域探空资料问题的详细分析、探空站综合评分、探空观测资料归档、探空观测资料偏差订正效果检验、L波段探空资料质量分析等，取得了显著效果。对加强观测业务管理、保证观测资料质量、改进观测技术发挥了积极的作用。     

Interannual Thermocline Signals and El Nio-La Nia Turnabout in the Tropical Pacific Ocean

One of the fundamental questions concerning the nature and prediction of the oceanic states in the equatorial eastern Pacific is how the turnabout from a cold water state (La Nina) to a warm water state (El Nino) takes place, and vice versa. Recent studies show that this turnabout is directly linked to the interannual thermocline variations in the tropical Pacific Ocean basin. An index, as an indicator and precursor to describe interannual thermocline variations and the turnabout of oceanic states in our previous paper (Qian and Hu, 2005), is also used in this study. The index, which shows the maximum subsurface temperature anomaly (MSTA), is derived from the monthly 21-year (1980-2000) expendable XBT dataset in the present study. Results show that the MSTA can be used as a precursor for the occurrences of El Nino (or La Nina) events. The subsequent analyses of the MSTA propagations in the tropical Pacific suggest a one-year potential predictability for El Nino and La Nina events by identifying ocean temperature anomalies in the thermocline of the western Pacific Ocean. It also suggests that a closed route cycle with the strongest signal propagation is identified only in the tropical North Pacific Ocean. A positive (or negative) MSTA signal may travel from the western equatorial Pacific to the eastern equatorial Pacific with the strongest signal along the equator. This signal turns northward along the tropical eastern boundary of the basin and then moves westward along the north side of off-equator around 16°N. Finally, the signal returns toward the equator along the western boundary of the basin. The turnabout time from an El Nino event to a La Nina event in the eastern equatorial Pacific depends critically on the speed of the signal traveling along the closed route, and it usually needs about 4 years. This finding may help to predict the occurrence of the El Nino or La Nina event at least one year in advance.     

局地雹暴环境气流的演变特征

通过甘肃永登、岷县防雹试验基地1979~1987年获取的1 d 4次无线电探空资料,对照地面实况,对强冰雹、弱冰雹、雷雨、阵雨、阴天、晴天6类天气的高空风进行分析研究,发现强雹暴在降雹前期低空风向切变、中空风速切变、高空急流等与其它类型天气比较具有显著的差异,这对于预报雹暴天气和雹暴形成机制的研究具有指示意义。     

松辽盆地中央坳陷南部下白垩统泉头组四段沉积相

松辽盆地中央坳陷南部下白垩统泉头组四段沉积时期，松辽盆地地形平缓，基底沉降缓慢，在湖平面整体扩张及浅水背景下河流入湖成三角洲沉积。通过岩心观察、相标志与测井相研究，该区储层主要为岩屑长石砂岩和长石岩屑砂岩，识别出三角洲平原、三角洲前缘、前角洲3种亚相，以及分支河道、天然堤、决口扇、分支河道间湾、水下分支河道、水下决口扇、河口坝、远沙坝、水下分支河道间湾9种微相三角洲平原、三角洲前缘广泛发育，前三角洲不发育。三角洲平原分支河道通过填积和频繁的分叉改道，向湖盆中心方向长距离推进，在三角前缘的浅水区域发育了大量水下分支河道，分支河道与水下分支河道砂体相互切割、叠加，形成了平均宽度200~600 m、平均厚度3~8 m的道单砂体，（水下）分支河道砂体构成了油气富集的主要储集体。该区沉积相的精细研究，为进一步调整开发井网奠定了基础。     

基于Ward聚类法的中国业务集合预报系统的产品开发

为开发中国新一代业务集合预报系统的聚类产品,系统地介绍了集合预报技术先进国家的集合预报聚类分析方法,并采用Ward聚类法开发了中国集合预报系统的聚类产品。针对重大天气过程初步分析了中国集合预报系统的聚类产品的业务预报能力。结果表明,Ward聚类法以凝练预报信息和给出发生概率的形式,有效地划分出最有可能出现的环流形势类型,为预报员提供了有价值的预报参考信息,也为科学合理地使用集合预报产品提供方便。     

Climatic regime shift and decadal anomalous events in China

Climatic time series from historical documents and instrumental records from China showed temporal and regional patterns in the last two to three centuries, including two multidecadal oscillations at quasi-20-year and quasi-70-year timescales revealed by signal analysis from wavelet transform. Climatic anomalous events on the decadal timescale were identified based on the two oscillations when their positive (or negative) phases coincide with each other to amplify amplitude. The coldest event occurred in the decade of 1965–1975 in eastern China, while the periods of 1920–1930, 1940–1950, and 1988–2000 appeared to be warmer in most parts of China. For the precipitation series in northern China, the dry anomalous event was found in the late 1920s, while the wet anomalous event occurred in the 1950s. A severe drought in 1927–1929 in northern China coincided with the anomalous warm and dry decade, caused large-scale famine in nine provinces over northern China. Climatic anomalous events with a warm-dry or cold-wet association in the physical climate system would potentially cause severe negative impacts on natural ecosystem in the key vulnerable region over northern China. The spatial pattern of summer rainfall anomalies in the eastern China monsoon region showed an opposite variations in phase between the Yellow River Valley (North China) and the mid-low Yangtze River Valley as well as accompanied the shift of the northernmost monsoon boundary. Climatic regime shifts for different time points in the last 200 years were identified. In North China, transitions from dry to wet periods occurred around 1800, 1875, and 1940 while the transitions from wet to dry periods appeared around 1840, 1910, and the late 1970s. The reversal transition in these time points can also be found in the lower Yangtze River. Climatic regime shifts in China were linked to the interaction of mid- and low latitude atmospheric circulations (the westerly flow and the monsoon flow) when they cross the Tibetan Plateau in East Asia.