The Southwest Pacific GPS Project: Geodetic results from Burst 1 of the 1990 Field Campaign

The Southwest Pacific GPS Project (SWP) is using the Global Positioning System (GPS) to monitor crustal motion across and within a plate boundary complex between the Australian and Pacific plates. GPS field campaigns were conducted in 1988, 1989 and 1990, to observe networks of increasing size and complexity. The 1990 campaign consisted of two periods, or Bursts, and this paper focuses on the analysis of data collected during the nine day Burst 1 in July, 1990, a period in which GPS Selective Availability was activated. During Burst 1, baselines that spanned the Tonga Trench and the Lau Basin were observed, and only one station (Espiritu Santo, Vanuatu) was located west of Fiji in the network. The lengths of the baselines observed fall mainly between 300 km and 1600 km, but some lines are as long as 3500 km. A total of 78 station-days of field site data and approximately 150 station-days of global fiducial data were processed from predominantly codeless receivers. A global fiducial network of 20 sites was used to provide orbit control and accuracy assessment for the 13 available satellites. The daily solutions for 45 baselines between 10 SWP sites have an RMS scatter in the length of 24 mm plus 6 parts per billion. This scatter provides an estimate of baseline precision for the Burst 1 nominal solution. Experiments were conducted to investigate a variety of possible effects on the SWP Network baseline estimates, including the influence of a reduced global fiducial network for the purpose of assessing the quality of results obtained in 1988 and 1989 in which the fiducial network was smaller than in 1990. These experiments produced results that agreed with the nominal solution at the level of the precision estimate. Furthermore, estimates for selected baselines in Australia, the Central Pacific, North America and Europe, also measured by VLBI and SLR, were used for an external accuracy evaluation. The GPS and VLBI or SLR determinations of length agreed at a level consistent with the nominal solution precision estimate.     

Temperatures and thermophysical properties of the lunar outermost layer

Comparisons of calculated diurnal and eclipse temperatures of the lunar outermost layer are made with Earth-based infrared and millimeter data. The thermophysical model upon which the calculations are based incorporates variable physical properties. The thermal conductivity is a function of both density (depth) and temperature; the specific heat is a function of temperature; the density is a function of depth; and the dielectric constant and loss tangent are functions of density (depth). Laboratory measurements and Apollo sample results are incorporated in the property data. Calculational cases are based largely upon different density profiles. The model is consistent with the data, and the comparisons of theoretical and observational temperatures are very favorable. For such comparisons, further sophistication of the thermophysical model of the outermost layer is probably not justified.     

The velocity structure of the lunar crust

Seismic refraction data, obtained at the Apollo 14 and 16 sites, when combined with other lunar seismic data, allow a compressional wave velocity profile of the lunar near-surface and crust to be derived. The regolith, although variable in thickness over the lunar surface, possesses surprisingly similar seismic properties. Underlying the regolith at both the Apollo 14 Fra Mauro site and the Apollo 16 Descartes site is low-velocity brecciated material or impact derived debris. Key features of the lunar seismic velocity profile are: (i) velocity increases from 100–300 m s^–1 in the upper 100 m to 4 km s^–1 at 5 km depth, (ii) a more gradual increase from 4 km s^–1 to 6 km s^–1 at 25 km depth, (iii) a discontinuity at a depth of 25 km and (iv) a constant value of 7 km s^–1 at depths from 25 km to about 60 km. The exact details of the velocity variation in the upper 5 to 10 km of the Moon cannot yet be resolved but self-compression of rock powders cannot duplicate the observed magnitude of the velocity change and the steep velocity-depth gradient. Other textural or compositional changes must be important in the upper 5 km of the Moon. The only serious candidates for the lower lunar crust are anorthositic or gabbroic rocks.Paper dedicated to Professor Harold C. Urey on the occasion of his 80th birthday on 29 April, 1973.     

Large-scale Vertical Momentum,Kinetic Energy and Moisture Fluxes in the Antarctic Sea-ice Region

There are very strong thermal gradients between the Antarctic continent and the sea-ice zone, and between that zone and the ocean to the north. As a result of these contrasts the sea-ice domain is one of strong cyclogenesis and high cyclone frequency. In this study we explore many aspects of that cyclonic behaviour and investigate the manner in which these systems influence, and are influenced by, the sea ice. Using the NCEP-DOE re-analyses (1979–2002) we have determined variables that are proportional to the mean of the wind stress and the mean rate at which mechanical energy is imparted to the surface. Using two decompositions of the wind field we have obtained estimates of how much of these fluxes are contributed to by the transient eddies. We find these to be significant over the sea ice and the ocean to the north, particularly when a new decomposition is used. The presence of frequent and vigorous cyclones is a central factor that determines the positive mean freshwater flux over the sea-ice zone in all seasons. This transfer to the ocean is smallest in summer (0.49 mm day⁻¹) and assumes a maximum of 1.27 mm day⁻¹ in winter.     

Regional regression models for hydro‐climate change impact assessment

Hydro‐climatic impacts in water resources systems are typically assessed by forcing a hydrologic model with outputs from general circulation models (GCMs) or regional climate models. The challenges of this approach include maintaining a consistent energy budget between climate and hydrologic models and also properly calibrating and verifying the hydrologic models. Subjective choices of loss, flow routing, snowmelt and evapotranspiration computation methods also increase watershed modelling uncertainty and thus complicate impact assessment. An alternative approach, particularly appealing for ungauged basins or locations where record lengths are short, is to predict selected streamflow quantiles directly from meteorological variable output from climate models using regional regression models that also include physical basin characteristics. In this study, regional regression models are developed for the western Great Lakes states using ordinary least squares and weighted least squares techniques applied to selected Great Lakes watersheds. Model inputs include readily available downscaled GCM outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3. The model results provide insights to potential model weaknesses, including comparatively low runoff predictions from continuous simulation models that estimate potential evapotranspiration using temperature proxy information and comparatively high runoff projections from regression models that do not include temperature as an explanatory variable. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.