Uncertainty analysis in bed load transport prediction of gravel bed rivers by ANN and ANFIS

River flow is a complex dynamic system of hydraulic and sediment transport. Bed load transport have a dynamic nature in gravel bed rivers and because of the complexity of the phenomenon include uncertainties in predictions. In the present paper, two methods based on the Artificial neural networks (ANN) and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) are developed by using 360 data points. Totally, 21 different combination of input parameters are used for predicting bed load transport in gravel bed rivers. In order to acquire reliable data subsets of training and testing, subset selection of maximum dissimilarity (SSMD) method, rather than classical trial and error method, is used in finding randomly manipulation of these subsets. Furthermore, uncertainty analysis of ANN and ANFIS models are determined using Monte Carlo simulation. Two uncertainty indices of d factor and 95% prediction uncertainty and uncertainty bounds in comparison with observed values show that these models have relatively large uncertainties in bed load predictions and using of them in practical problems requires considerable effort on training and developing processes. Results indicated that ANFIS and ANN are suitable models for predicting bed load transport; but there are many uncertainties in determination of bed load transport by ANFIS and ANN, especially for high sediment loads. Based on the predictions and confidence intervals, the superiority of ANFIS to those of ANN is proved.     

Erosion potential assessment of watersheds through GIS<Emphasis Type="Bold">-</Emphasis>based hypsometric analysis: a case study of Kurram Tangi Dam

Sediment discharge due to soil and rock erosion within the watersheds is the major cause of siltation in water reservoirs. Siltation in reservoirs reduces the capacity for power production, irrigation water supply, and other domestic purposes. Hypsometric analysis has widely been used to identifying the geomorphic development stages (stabilized, equilibrium, and un-stable) to assess the erosion proneness of watersheds. In this study, watershed of Kurram Tangi Dam and its four sub-watersheds (SWs) were considered to determine their sediment discharge capacity through hypsometric analysis. The boundaries of watershed and sub-watersheds were delineated from Digital Elevation Model (DEM). The hypsometric parameters i.e., hypsometric integral (HI) and curves were generated using Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques. The HI values of SW-1 (0.41) and SW-2 (0.36) indicated that these two SWs were relatively more prone to erosion and contributed higher sediment discharge in Dam siltation. The results were validated through sampling the main drainage channel (Kurram River) to determine the sediment concentration at 12 sites during summer, winter, and spring seasons. Comparison of HI and sediment concentration of SWs presented high correlation (R²?=?0.87). The results emphasized the effective watershed management, extensive afforestation, and construction of silt-control structures at appropriate locations in sub-watersheds. This will ultimately maintain the water and power generation capacity as well as extending the life span of the Dam.     

Assessment of aquifer vulnerability to contamination in Khanyounis Governorate, Gaza Strip—Palestine, using the DRASTIC model within GIS environment

Groundwater is a very important natural resource in Khanyounis Governorate (the study area) for water supply and development. Historically, the exploitation of aquifers in Khanyounis Governorate has been undertaken without proper concern for environmental impact. In view of the importance of quality groundwater, it might be expected that aquifer protection to prevent groundwater quality deterioration would have received due attention. In the long term, however, protection of groundwater resources is of direct practical importance because, once pollution of groundwater has been allowed to occur, the scale and persistence of such pollution makes restoration technically difficult and costly. In order to maintain basin aquifer as a source of water for the area, it is necessary to find out, whether certain locations in this groundwater basin are susceptible to receive and transmit contamination. This study aims to: (1) assess the vulnerability of the aquifer to contamination in Khanyounis governorate, (2) find out the groundwater vulnerable zones to contamination in the aquifer of the study area, and (3) provide a spatial analysis of the parameters and conditions under which groundwater may become contaminate. To achieve that, DRASTIC model within geographic information system (GIS) environment was applied. The model uses seven environmental parameters: depth of water table, net recharge, aquifer media, soil media, topography, impact of vadose zone, and hydraulic conductivity to evaluate aquifer vulnerability. Based on this model and by using ArcGIS 9.3 software, an attempt was made to create vulnerability maps for the study area. According to the DRASTIC model index, the study has shown that in the western part of the study area the vulnerability to contamination ranges between high and very high due to the relatively shallow water table with moderate to high recharge potential, and permeable soils. To the east of the previous part and in the south-eastern part, vulnerability to contamination is moderate. In the central and the eastern part, vulnerability to contamination is low due to depth of water table. Vulnerability analysis of the DRASTIC Model indicates that the highest risk of contamination of groundwater in the study area originates from the soil media. The impact of vadose zone, depth to water level, and hydraulic conductivity imply moderate risks of contamination, while net recharge, aquifer media, and topography impose a low risk of aquifer contamination. The coefficient of variation indicates that a high contribution to the variation of vulnerability index is made by the topography. Moderate contribution is made by the depth to water level, and net recharge, while impact of vadose zone, hydraulic conductivity, soil media, and Aquifer media are the least variable parameters. The low variability of the parameters implies a smaller contribution to the variation of the vulnerability index across the study area. Moreover, the “effective” weights of the DRASTIC parameters obtained in this study exhibited some deviation from that of the “theoretical” weights. Soil media and the impact of vadose zone were the most effective parameters in the vulnerability assessment because their mean “effective” weights were higher than their respective “theoretical” weights. The depth of water table showed that both “effective” and “theoretical” weights were equal. The rest of the parameters exhibit lower “effective” weights compared with the “theoretical” weights. This explains the importance of soil media and vadose layers in the DRASTIC model. Therefore, it is important to get the accurate and detailed information of these two specific parameters. The GIS technique has provided an efficient environment for analysis and high capabilities of handling large spatial data. Considering these results, DRASTIC model highlights as a useful tool that can be used by national authorities and decision makers especially in the agricultural areas applying chemicals and pesticides which are most likely to contaminate groundwater resources.     

Discovery of an ancient pharaoh’s temple on the Horus military road, Northern Sinai, Egypt

Detailed geophysical measurements have been carried out in the northwestern part of the Sinai Peninsula. This area was mainly used by the ancient Egyptian army forces to support the trading and mining trips to Sinai and Asia. The geophysical field work aimed to discover new buried archeological remains using the efficient archeogeophysical detailed and nondestructive methods including total magnetic field, vertical magnetic gradient, and very-low-frequency electromagnetic measurements. Results of the field geophysical measurements have led to a discovery of a temple which is located on the Horus military road. This discovery has been verified by an excavation program, under the supervision of the Supreme Council of Egyptian Antiquities, where buried remains of a pharaoh’s temple were detected and photographed. Some other sites were recommended for further excavation in the future.     

洋中脊扩张速率对洋壳速度结构的约束

洋中脊速度结构是揭示大洋岩石圈演化过程的重要约束.为探讨不同扩张速率下洋中脊的洋壳速度结构特征,挑选了全球152处快速(全扩张速率 90mm·a-1)、慢速(全扩张速率20～50mm·a-1)和超慢速(全扩张速率20mm·a-1)扩张洋中脊和非洋中脊的洋壳1-D地震波速度结构剖面,通过筛选统计、求取平均值等方法对分类的洋壳1-D速度结构进行对比研究,获得了不同扩张速率下洋中脊洋壳速度结构差异以及洋中脊与非洋中脊洋壳速度结构差异的新认识:(1)快速、慢速和超慢速扩张洋中脊的平均正常洋壳厚度分别为6.4km、7.2km和5.3km,其中洋壳层2的厚度基本相似,洋壳厚度差异主要源自洋壳层3;其洋壳厚度变化范围分别为4.9～8.1km、4.6～8.7km和4.2～10.2km,随着洋中脊扩张速率减小,洋壳厚度的变化范围逐渐增大;(2)快速扩张洋中脊的洋壳速度大于慢速和超慢速,可能与快速扩张脊洋壳生成过程中深部高密度岩浆上涌比较充足有关;(3)非洋中脊(10Ma)的洋壳比洋中脊(10Ma)的洋壳厚～0.3km,表明洋壳厚度与洋壳年龄有一定的正相关性.     

Terrain mapping unit-based approach for sustainable agricultural development in India—an example from plains ecosystem at semi-arid interface

‘Green Revolution’ was adopted as National Agricultural Policy by the Government of India to meet the requirements for food grain self-sufficiency. Improved seeds, fertilizers and irrigation were provided as science and technology (S&T) inputs to the soil resource base of the country. Land use changes in order to increase the area of land under cultivation have resulted in sectoral imbalances. The introduction of irrigation, fertilizers and new seed varieties using the district as a unit of agricultural input and management, without consideration of moisture and pedogenetic requirements at the micro-level, have resulted in ecological imbalances and environmental degradation in some parts of the district. Intensive irrigation has resulted in water mining in some blocks, and over a period of years the upper aquifer has been lost and in parts of the Aligarh district water-logging and salinity development has taken place.This paper presents the concept of spatial information systems for sustainable agriculture to eliminate the overdose effect of S&T inputs in a land system such as the fragile ecosystem at the semi-arid border in India.The present study has attempted to integrate the natural resource endowments of lithology, soil, ground-water and geomorphology into terrain mapping units (TMUs). The geological, geomorphological and soil maps were generated using remotely sensed data. For ground-water, well logging was carried out and secondary data regarding depth to water-table were collated. The spatial modelling for depth to water-table was carried out using SURFER software. The files on geology, geomorphology, soil and depth to water-table were digitized and integrated to generate an illuminated model characterized by areas of homogeneity in terms of geology, geomorphology, soil and ground-water conditions to map the TMUs. Intergraph's Modular GIS Environment (MGE) software was used to integrate the multiple data base.For sustainable agriculture the natural boundaries represented by TMUs will be more appropriate as spatial units for the application of agricultural inputs and management practices for the land system, rather than villages, blocks and districts which have cultural boundaries. The methodology proposed will be useful for all ecosystems in semi-arid and arid regions.     

西南印度洋中脊49.5°E离轴地壳结构

超慢速扩张西南印度洋中脊岩浆的集中供给在空间维度上表现为岩浆扩张段（NVR）与相邻的非转换断层不连续带（NTD）地壳结构的差异,而在时间维度上表现为离轴与沿轴地壳结构的差异.为了进一步揭示岩浆集中供给的时空分布特征,本文选取西南印度洋中脊热液区2010年海底地震仪深部探测中平行于洋中脊距轴部偏北约10 km的离轴测线d0d10,使用射线追踪正演和反演的方法,得到了NVR和NTD北侧离轴区域的地壳及上地幔P波速度结构,并与轴部速度结构进行了对比分析.研究结果表明：（1）NTD北侧离轴区域的地壳厚度约5.2 km,其厚度明显大于轴部NTD下方地壳厚度（~3.2 km）,由此推测洋脊轴部NTD区域形成的地壳在不断减薄;（2）NVR北侧离轴区域的地壳厚度约7.0 km,其厚度亦大于轴部NVR地壳厚度（~5.8 km）,表明在洋中脊演化过程中洋脊轴区域的岩浆供给在不断减少,其活动性在不断减弱.     

A hybrid time frequency domain formulation for non-linear soil–structure interaction

Methods that combine frequency and time domain techniques offer an attractive alternative for solving Soil–Structure-interaction problems where the structure exhibits non-linear behaviour. In the hybrid-frequency-time-domain procedure a reference linear system is solved in the frequency domain and the difference between the actual restoring forces and those in the linear model are treated as pseudo-forces. In the solution scheme explored in this paper, designated as the hybrid-time-frequency-domain (HTFD) procedure, the equations of motion are solved in the time domain with due consideration for non-linearities and with the unbounded medium represented by frequency-independent springs and dampers. The frequency dependency of the impedance coefficients is introduced by means of pseudo-forces evaluated in the frequency domain at the end of each iteration. A criterion of stability for the HTFD approach is derived analytically and its validity is sustained numerically. As is often the case, the criterion takes the form of a limit of unity on the spectral radius of an appropriately defined matrix. Inspection of the terms in this matrix shows that convergence can be guaranteed by suitable selection of the reference impedance. The CPU times required to obtain converged solutions with the HTFD are found, in a number of numerical simulations, to be up to one order of magnitude less than those required by the alternative hybrid-frequency-time-domain approach. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Nexus between natural and technical disaster shocks,resource depletion and growth-specific factors: evidence from quantile regression

Natural Hazards - Debris flows are a hazardous natural calamity in mountainous regions of Nepal. Torrential rainfall within a very short period of the year is the main triggering factor for...