Meso-gamma scale forecasts using the nonhydrostatic model LM

Summary ?The nonhydrostatic model LM was developed for small scale operational predictions. Advances in computer development will give the possibility of operational models of a rather fine scale, which will cover the meso-gamma scale. The LM is currently applied at a scale of 7 km and an increase of the operational resolution to 2.5 km is planned for the next few years. Predictions of such high resolution require to abandon the hydrostatic assumption, which is used with most current operational weather prediction models. The LM was designed to cover all resolutions from 50 m to 50 km with an efficiency making it suitable for operational use. It is a fully elastic model, using second order centred finite differences. The time integration is done using the Klemp–Wilhelmson method, treating the slow modes by a larger time step than the fast modes. The vertical propagation of the fast waves is done implicitly. After describing the design of the LM, this paper gives examples of model predictions at the meso-γ scale. Some results of the current operational application at the resolution 7 km are presented. Deficiencies in the localisation of model generated precipitation are investigated using an idealised bell shaped mountain and applying different resolutions. In this way the convergence to the correct solution can be investigated. From these results it is concluded, that orographic filtering is necessary and the effect of such filtering on precipitation forecasts is investigated. Finally, the prediction of a squall line over northern Germany is shown in order to demonstrate the potential of the model in forecasting the meso-γ scale. Received May 15, 2001; revised September 21, 2001     

Long-term investigations on the water budget quantities predicted by the hydro-thermodynamic soil vegetation scheme (HTSVS) – Part II: Evaluation, sensitivity, and uncertainty

Summary ¶Various water budget elements (water supply to the atmosphere, ground water recharge, change in storage) are predicted by HTSVS for a period of 2050 days. The predicted water budget elements are evaluated by routine lysimeter data. The results show that land surface models need parameterizations for soil frost, snow effects and water uptake to catch the broad cycle of soil water budget elements. In principle, HTSVS is able to simulate the general characteristics of the seasonal changes in these water budget elements and their long-term accumulated sums. Compared to lysimeter data, there is a discrepancy in the predicted water supply to the atmosphere for summer and winter which may be attributed to the hardly observed plant physiological parameters like root depth, LAI, shielding factor, etc., the lack of measured downward long-wave radiation, and some simplifications made in the parameterizations of soil frost and snow effects. The fact that high resolution data for the evaluation of model results are missing and evaluation is made on the basis of the data from routine stations of a network is typical for the results of long-term studies on climate. Taking into account the coarse resolution of climate models, the coarse vertical resolution that is used in their LSMs, and the lack of suitable parameters needed, it seems that discrepancies in the order of magnitude found in this study are a general uncertainty in the results of land surface modeling on typical spatial and temporal scales of the climate system.Received October 8, 2001; revised February 15, 2002; accepted September 20, 2002 Published online: April 10, 2003     

Simulation of the influence of solar radiation variations on the global climate with an ocean-atmosphere general circulation model

 Two simulations with a global coupled ocean-atmosphere circulation model have been carried out to study the potential impact of solar variability on climate. The Hoyt and Schatten estimate of solar variability from 1700 to 1992 has been used to force the model. Results indicate that the near-surface temperature simulated by the model is dominated by the long periodic solar fluctuations (Gleissberg cycle), with global mean temperatures varying by about 0.5 K. Further results indicate that solar variability and an increase in greenhouse gases both induce to a first approximation a comparable pattern of surface temperature change, i.e., an increase of the land-sea contrast. However, the solar-induced warming pattern in annual means and summer is more centered over the subtropics, compared to a more uniform warming associated with the increase in greenhouse gases. The observed temperature rise over the most recent 30 and 100 years is larger than the trend in the solar forcing simulation during the same period, indicating a strong likelihood that, if the model forcing and response is realistic, other factors have contributed to the observed warming. Since the pattern of the recent observed warming agrees better with the greenhouse warming pattern than with the solar variability response, it is likely that one of these factors is the increase of the atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration. Received: 14 October 1996 / Accepted: 9 May 1997     

Factors useful for predicting future mineral-commodity supply trends

The analysis of various factors influencing mineral availability documents future short-and long-term mineral-commodity supply trends. The lifetime of reserves, the development of the relative importance of production centres and the forecasting of the depletion of a resource base are mainly geological factors, although the category “reserves”, in contrast to “resources”, is determined by technical and economical aspects. These three factors govern the short-and long-term supply of mineral commodities. The intensity-of-use factors and the growth rate of consumption are variables related to the demand of mineral commodities. They influence the decision of companies for certain commodities as targets for exploration and investment in production centres. Both factors control the short-to medium-term mineral supply. Finally, the lead time to production is a technical variable, although influenced by ore deposit type, and controls short-term mineral availability.     

Seismic anisotropy within the uppermost mantle of southern Germany

This paper presents an updated interpretation of seismic anisotropy within the uppermost mantle of southern Germany. The dense network of reversed and crossing refraction profiles in this area made it possible to observe almost 900 traveltimes of the P_n phase that could be effectively used in a time-term analysis to determine horizontal velocity distribution immediately below the Moho. For 12 crossing profiles, amplitude ratios of the P_n phase compared to the dominant crustal phase were utilized to resolve azimuthally dependent velocity gradients with depth. A P -wave anisotropy of 3–4 per cent in a horizontal plane immediately below the Moho at a depth of 30 km, increasing to 11 per cent at a depth of 40 km, was determined. For the axis of the highest velocity of about 8.03 km s⁻¹ at a depth of 30 km a direction of N31°F was obtained. The azimuthal dependence of the observed P_n amplitude is explained by an azimuth-dependent sub-Moho velocity gradient decreasing from 0.06 s⁻¹ in the fast direction to 0 s⁻¹ in the slow direction of horizontal P -wave velocity. From the seismic results in this study a petrological model suggesting a change of modal composition and percentage of oriented olivine with depth was derived.     

The Uplift of the Longmenshan Thrust Belt and Subsidence of the West Sichuan Foreland Basin

Based on fission track dating of apatite, and measurement of vitrinite reflectance of rock samples from the Longmenshan (Longmen Mountain)area and the West Sichuan foreland basin and computer modelling it is concluded that (l)the Songpan-Garze fold belt has uplifted at least by 3-4 km with an uplift rate of no less than 0.3-0.4 mm/a since 10 Ma B.P.; (2) the Longmenshan thrust nappe belt has uplifted at least by 5-6 km with an uplift rate of more than 0.5- 0.6 mm /a since 10 Ma B.P.; (3) the Longmenshan detachment belt has uplifted by 1 - 2 km at a rate of 0.016-0.032 mm/a since 60 Ma B.P.; (4) the West Sichuan foreland basin has uplifted by 1.7-3 km at a rate of 0.028-0.05 mm/a since 60 Ma B.P.; (5) the uplift rate of the area on the west side of the Beichuan-Yingxiu-Xiaoguanzi fault for the last 10 Ma is 40 times as much as that on its east side; (6) the uplifting of the the Songpan - Garze fold belt and the subsidence of the West Sichuan foreland basin 60 Ma ago exhibit a mirro-image correlation, i.e     

The Best Natural Boundary:a New Concept Developed by Combining the Sequence Boundary with the GSSP

Through a detailed study of sequence boundaries, it is concluded that sequence stratigraphy is an independent regional and transitional stratigraphic system between local lithostratigraphy and global chronostratigraphy. Therefore, a new tripartite stratigraphic classification scheme has been proposed. By combining organically the concept of sequence boundaries with the GSSP, it is suggested that the GSSP should be chosen in a conformale portion of a related sequence boundary, and the boundary established in light of this concept is defined as the Best Natural Boundary (BNB). The definition of the BNB points out the working area and stratigraphic level for the GSSP. By referring to a case study of the Permian Guadalupian/Lopingian boundary, the concept of the BNB has been elaborated in detail, and it is proposed that the BNB of the Guadalupian and the Lopingian lies between the Mesogondolella granti Zone and the Ctarkina postbitteri Zone, which is also the sequence chronostratigraphic boundary between th     

Generating fracture networks using iterated function systems

In order to model flow and transport in fractured rocks it is important to know the geometry of the fracture network. A stochastic approach is commonly used to generate a synthetic fracture network from the statistics measured at a natural fracture network. The approach presented herein is able to incorporate the structures found in a natural fracture network into the synthetic fracture network. These synthetic fracture networks are the images generated by Iterated Function Systems (IFS) as introduced by Barnsley (1988). The conditions these IFS have to fulfil to determine images resembling fracture networks and the effects of their parameters on the images are discussed. It is possible to define the parameters of the IFS in order to generate some properties of a fracture network. The image of an IFS consists of many single points and has to be suitably processed for further use.     

Hydrous pyrolysis of a Type III source: fractionation effects during primary migration in natural and artificially matured samples

A core from the Cambay Shale Formation of the Cambay Basin, containing immature Type III organic matter, was pyrolysed at 300°C for different durations of time to different maturation levels. Fractionation effects were studied employing a three-step extraction technique after removal of the expelled pyrolysate. The extractable organic matter (EOM) obtained on extraction of the whole core is assumed to be that present in open pores, while that obtained on finely crushing the sample is assumed to be that present in closed pores. The EOM obtained from 1 cm chips is termed EOM from semi-open pores. The gross composition of the pyrolysates expelled during pyrolysis is not similar to the oils reservoired in the area, and there is no significant fractionation observed between expelled pyrolysates and unexpelled EOM. Our study indicates movement of fluids between closed, semi-open and open pores. In both systems, there is a higher concentration of EOM in open pores than in semi-open and closed pores, and the fraction of EOM in open pores is much greater in the artificial system than in the natural system. Fractionation effects on n-alkane and isoprenoid hydrocarbon-based parameters were also studied. n-Alkenes are present in semi-open and closed pores of the immature core and in the core after it was pyrolysed to 300°C for 6 and 48 h, but are absent in the open pores. n-Alkenes are present in closed pores in the naturally matured core. Presence of n-alkenes in the pyrolysates expelled during the 6 and 48 h experiments, but their absence in the open pores of the core, indicates that expulsion also occurs through temporary microfractures during laboratory pyrolysis, whereas in the natural system expulsion from closed pores seems to be only via semi-open and open pores.     

ASPI experiment: measurements of fields and waves on board the INTERBALL-1 spacecraft

The plasma-wave experiment ASPI (analysis of spectra of plasma waves and instabilities) on board the INTERBALL spacecraft is a combined wave diagnostics experiment. It performs measurements of the DC and AC magnetic field vector by flux-gate and searchcoil sensors, the DC and AC electric field vector by Langmuir double probes and the plasma current by Langmuir split probe. Preliminary data analysis shows the low noise levels of the sensors and the compatibility of new data with the results of previous missions. During several months of in-orbit operation a rich collection of data was acquired, examples of which at the magnetopause and plasma sheet are presented in second part of the paper.