Financial risk management for energy service project under the Tokyo emission trading system

Recently, energy service providers (ESP) have increased due to deregulation in the power market. They install energy supply equipment at their own cost and supply the necessary energy to the client. The Tokyo Metropolitan Government started Asia’s first cap-and-trade program in April 2010. This program caps energy-related carbon dioxide emissions from some 1,330 offices and factories in Tokyo. Then, ESPs have to manage the many risks of energy service project directly linked to the profits. In this paper, we describes the risk analysis and investment optimization for energy service projects using financial engineering.     

Sequentially sampled gas hydrate water,coupled with pore water and bottom water isotopic and ionic signatures at the Kukuy mud volcano,Lake Baikal: ambiguous deep-rooted source of hydrate-forming water

The isotopic and ionic composition of pure gas hydrate (GH) water was examined for GHs recovered in three gravity cores (165–193 cm length) from the Kukuy K-9 mud volcano (MV) in Lake Baikal. A massive GH sample from core St6GC4 (143–165 cm core depth interval) was dissociated progressively over 6 h in a closed glass chamber, and 11 sequentially collected fractions of dissociated GH water analyzed. Their hydrogen and oxygen isotopic compositions, and the concentrations of Cl^– and HCO₃ ^– remained essentially constant over time, except that the fraction collected during the first 50 minutes deviated partly from this pattern. Fraction #1 had a substantially higher Cl^– concentration, similar to that of pore water sampled immediately above (135–142 cm core depth) the main GH-bearing interval in that core. Like the subsequent fractions, however, the HCO₃ ^– concentration was markedly lower than that of pore water. For the GH water fractions #2 to #11, an essentially constant HCO₃ ^–/Cl^– ratio of 305 differed markedly from downcore pore water HCO₃ ^–/Cl^– ratios of 63–99. Evidently, contamination of the extracted GH water by ambient pore water probably adhered to the massive GH sample was satisfactorily restricted to the initial phase of GH dissociation. The hydrogen and oxygen isotopic composition of hydrate-forming water was estimated using the measured isotopic composition of extracted GH water combined with known isotopic fractionation factors between GH and GH-forming water. Estimated δD of ?126 to ?133‰ and δ¹⁸O of ?15.7 to ?16.7‰ differed partly from the corresponding signatures of ambient pore water (δD of ?123‰, δ¹⁸O of ?15.6‰) and of lake bottom water (δD of ?121‰, δ¹⁸O of ?15.8‰) at the St6GC4 coring site, suggesting that the GH was not formed from those waters. Observations of breccias in that core point to a possible deep-rooted water source, consistent with published thermal measurements for the neighboring Kukuy K-2 MV. By contrast, the pore waters of core St6GC4 and also of the neighboring cores GC2 and GC3 from the Kukuy K-9 MV show neither isotopic nor ionic evidence of such a source (e.g., elevated sulfate concentration). These findings constrain GH formation to earlier times, but a deep-rooted source of hydrate-forming water remains ambiguous. A possible long-term dampening of key deep-water source signatures deserves further attention, notably in terms of diffusion and/or advection, as well as anaerobic oxidation of methane.     

High-Resolution Analysis of Debris Flow–Induced Channel Changes in a Headwater Stream,Ashio Mountains,Japan∗

Coupled hillslope and channel processes in headwater streams (HWS) lead to rapid changes in channel dimensions. Changes in channel size and shape caused by a debris flow event along the length of a headwater stream in the Ashio Mountains, Japan, were captured with the aid of repeat high-definition surveys using terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) techniques. The HWS was classified into three distinct reaches below the debris flow initiation zone. A large knickpoint separated an upper bedrock reach from a colluvial reach along the midsection of the drainage. The colluvial reach transitioned to a lower bedrock reach that terminated at the master stream. Cross-sectional and morphometric analyses revealed no statistically significant changes in channel size or shape along the upper bedrock reach. Debris flow erosion generated significant differences in channel size and shape along a colluvial reach. Sediment bulking associated with erosion along the colluvial reach led to increases in channel size along the lower bedrock reach, but no statistical differences in channel shape. Morphometric analyses from the TLS point cloud revealed that debris flow erosion produced a distinct nonlinear change in channel dimensions in the downstream direction within the HWS. Variations in channel substrate along the length of HWS contributed directly to this nonlinear response. The episodic nature and nonlinearity of erosion associated with the current debris flow event highlights the importance of debris flows in general in understanding the transport of sediment, coarse to fine particulate organic material, and large woody debris, which are critical to the long-term management of riverine environments. TLS sampling methods show promise as one component of a multianalytical approach needed to continuously monitor and manage the dynamics of HWS.     

Four-dimensional variational ocean reanalysis: a 30-year high-resolution dataset in the western North Pacific (FORA-WNP30)

We produced a four-dimensional variational ocean re-analysis for the Western North Pacific over 30 years (FORA-WNP30). It is the first-ever dataset covering the western North Pacific over 3 decades at eddy-resolving resolution. The four-dimensional variational analysis scheme version of the Meteorological Research Institute Multivariate Ocean Variational Estimation system (MOVE-4DVAR) is employed to conduct a long-term reanalysis experiment during 1982–2012. After evaluating the basic performance of FORA-WNP30, the interannual to decadal variability is analyzed. Overall, FORA-WNP30 reproduces basic features in the western North Pacific well. One of outstanding features in FORA-WNP30 is that anomalous events such as the Kuroshio large meander and anomalous intrusion of the Oyashio in the 1980s, when there were no altimeter data, are successfully reproduced. FORA-WNP30 is therefore a valuable dataset for a variety of oceanographic research topics and potentially for related fields such as climate study, meteorology and fisheries.     

冻结作用下考虑补水层影响的水分迁移试验

冻融协同淋洗修复污染土壤的过程中,为了提高淋洗效率,须使土体在冻结过程中吸收更多的水分或淋洗液。因此,通过室内大尺寸单向冻结水分迁移试验,开展了开放系统下温度梯度、冻结速率及补水方式对水分迁移的影响研究。试验结果表明：冻结过程中土中水分迁移与温度梯度的变化速率有关,变化速率越大水分迁移量越大;可以通过边界温度控制冻结锋面推移速度进而影响土中水分的迁移,当冻结锋面推移速度为0.5 cm·d^-1左右时,补水速率最大;距离冻结锋面越近水分迁移量越大,当距离冻结锋面10 cm左右时,水分迁移量开始增大,可通过在土体中添加多层补水层的方式让土体吸收更多的水分;有外界水源的补给下土体含水量整体增加,但上层土体含水量增加较多,下层土体含水量增加较少。     

Sequential Chemical Separation of Cr and Ti from a Single Digest for High‐Precision Isotope Measurements of Planetary Materials

Combined determination of Cr and Ti isotopes of planetary materials offers a means with which to investigate their genetic relationship and the evolution of the protoplanetary disk. Here, we report the new sequential chemical separation procedure for combined Cr and Ti isotope ratio measurements. It comprises three steps: (a) Fe removal using AG1‐X8 anion exchange resin, (b) Ti separation using TODGA resin and (c) Cr separation using AG50W‐X8 cation exchange resin (with one additional step of Ti purification using AG1‐X8 anion exchange resin for samples having high Cr/Ti and Ca/Ti ratios). We applied the proposed procedure to terrestrial and meteorite samples with various compositions. Typical recovery rates of 90–100% were achieved with total procedural Cr and Ti blanks of 3–5 and 2–3 ng, respectively. We measured the Cr and Ti isotope compositions of the separated samples using thermal ionisation mass spectrometry and multiple collector‐inductively coupled plasma‐mass spectrometry, respectively. Our Cr and Ti isotope data were found to be consistent with those of previous studies of individual Cr and Ti isotopic compositions of the meteorites. These results demonstrate the capability of our separation method when applied to combined high‐precision Cr and Ti isotope analyses for single digests of planetary materials.     

Potassium diffusion in melilite: Experimental studies and constraints on the thermal history and size of planetesimals hosting CAIs

Abstract— Among the calcium‐aluminum‐rich inclusions (CAIs), excess ⁴¹K (⁴¹K*), which was produced by the decay of the short‐lived radionuclide ⁴¹Ca (t_1/2 = 0.1 Myr), has so far been detected in fassaite and in two grains of melilites. These observations could be used to provide important constraints on the thermal history and size of the planetesimals into which the CAIs were incorporated, provided the diffusion kinetic properties of K in these minerals are known. Thus, we have experimentally determined K diffusion kinetics in the melilite end‐members, åkermanite and gehlenite, as a function of temperature (900–1200 °C) and crystallographic orientation at 1 bar pressure. The closure temperature of K diffusion in melilite, T_c(K:mel), for the observed grain size of melilite in the CAIs and cooling rate of 10–100 °C/Myr, as calculated from our diffusion data, is much higher than that of Mg in anorthite. The latter was calculated from the available Mg diffusion data in anorthite. Assuming that the planetesimals were heated by the decay of ²⁶Al and ⁶⁰Fe, we have calculated the size of a planetesimal as a function of the accretion time t_f such that the peak temperature at a specified radial distance r_c equals T_c(K:mel). The ratio (r_c/R)³ defines the planetesimal volume fraction within which ⁴¹K* in melilite grains would be at least partly disturbed, if these were randomly distributed within a planetesimal. A similar calculation was also carried out to define R versus t_f relation such that ²⁶Mg* was lost from ?50% of randomly distributed anorthite grains, as seems to be suggested by the observational data. These calculations suggest that ?60% of melilite grains should retain ⁴¹K* if ?50% of anorthite grains had retained ²⁶Mg*. Assuming that t_f was not smaller than the time of chondrule formation, our calculations yield minimum planetesimal radius of ?20–30 km, depending on the choice of planetesimal surface temperature and initial abundance of the heat producing isotope ⁶⁰Fe.     

The Antarctic achondrite ALHA 76005: a polymict eucrite

ALHA 76005 is a basaltic achondrite containing few. if any, orthopyroxenes. Its bulk major and trace element composition is like that of a non-cumulate eucrite, and unlike that of a howardite. It contains a variety of igneous clasts which differ in their textures, pyroxene/plagioclase ratios and pyroxene and plagioclase compositions. One clast, No. 4, was found to have the REE pattern of a cumulate eucrite and an oxygen isotopic composition different from that of the bulk meteorite. Both the chemical and oxygen isotopic composition of clast No. 4 suggest that it was derived from a source different from its host. These observations lead to the conclusion that ALHA 76005 is a polymict eucrite.     

Compressibility of the calcium aluminosilicate, CAS, phase to 44 GPa

In situ X-ray diffraction measurements on a calcium aluminosilicate (CAS) phase have been carried out using a laser-heated diamond anvil cell up to a pressure of 44 GPa, employing a synchrotron radiation source. CAS is the major mineral formed from sediments subducted into the Earth's mantle. The sample was heated using a YAG laser after each pressure increment to relax the deviatoric stress in the sample. X-ray diffraction measurements were carried out at T = 300 K using an angle-dispersive technique. The pressure was calculated using an internal platinum metal pressure calibrant. The Birch–Murnaghan equation of state for the CAS phase obtained from the experimental unit cell parameters showed a density of ρ₀ = 3.888 g/cm³ and a bulk modulus of K₀ = 229 ± 9 GPa for K^′₀ = 4.7 ± 0.7. When the first pressure derivative of the bulk modulus was fixed at K^′₀ = 4, then the value of K₀ = 239 ± 2 GPa. From the experimental compressibility, the density of the CAS phase was observed to be lower than the density of co-existing Al-bearing stishovite, calcium perovskite, calcium ferrite-type phases, and (Fe,Al)-bearing Mg-perovskite in subducted sediments in the lower mantle. Therefore, the density of subducted sediments in the lower mantle decreases with increasing mineral proportion of the CAS phase.     

Resource depletion calculated by the ratio of the reserve plus cumulative consumption to the crustal abundance for gold

The magnitude of the world's mineral consumption has increased sharply, and there is no sign that growth is likely to stop in the near future. Currently, new discoveries and technology add to the reserves of varous mineral commodities at a rate that has exceeded depletion. As a result, life expectancies have remained nearly constant. However, it is questionable whether this condition is sustainable in the future. Therefore, most of our attention to the future has been focused on potentially recoverable resources. The potentially recoverable resources for 35 minerals in the Earth's crust were estimated based on the relationship between crustal abundance and the reserve of currently recoverable gold. The ratio of the reserve plus cumulative consumption to the abundance of gold is appropriate for calculating reserves of other mineral resources because gold has the highest profit margin for exploration of reserves. From an economic perspective, the price of gold is 350 times the mean value of 33 other resources for calculating production versus price. New mining technologies and new processing methods have been developed during the last 20 years as a response to high prices. As a result, five times the reserves available in 1970 have now been discovered, and two times the reserves available in 1970 were consumed during the past two decades. It is questionable whether other mineral commodities can reach the ratio of reserve plus cumulative consumption to abundance that gold does. Using this concept, the limit of the Earth's resources under present technology was calculated for 35 mineral resources, based on the ratio of the reserve plus cumulative consumption to abundance for gold. Even though recoverable tonnage of lead, silver, tin, boron, copper, and mercury from ore deposits in the Earth's crust is relatively low, the abundance of these metals is apparently sufficient for future supplies. However, considering the special situation of gold created by its very high price compared to world production, there is anxiety concerning steep increases in the price or depletion of these metals, which have a shorter lifetime from a geochemical point of view.