Data-Worth Assessment for a Three-Dimensional Optimal Design in Nonlinear Groundwater Systems

Groundwater model predictions are often uncertain due to inherent uncertainties in model input data. Monitored field data are commonly used to assess the performance of a model and reduce its prediction uncertainty. Given the high cost of data collection, it is imperative to identify the minimum number of required observation wells and to define the optimal locations of sampling points in space and depth. This study proposes a design methodology to optimize the number and location of additional observation wells that will effectively measure multiple hydrogeological parameters at different depths. For this purpose, we incorporated Bayesian model averaging and genetic algorithms into a linear data-worth analysis in order to conduct a three-dimensional location search for new sampling locations. We evaluated the methodology by applying it along a heterogeneous coastal aquifer with limited hydrogeological data that is experiencing salt water intrusion (SWI). The aim of the model was to identify the best locations for sampling head and salinity data, while reducing uncertainty when predicting multiple variables of SWI. The resulting optimal locations for new observation wells varied with the defined design constraints. The optimal design (OD) depended on the ratio of the start-up cost of the monitoring program and the installation cost of the first observation well. The proposed methodology can contribute toward reducing the uncertainties associated with predicting multiple variables in a groundwater system.     

Parental magma of the Skaergaard intrusion: constraints from melt inclusions in primitive troctolite blocks and FG-1 dykes

Troctolite blocks with compositions akin to the Hidden Zone are exposed in a tholeiitic dyke cutting across the Skaergaard intrusion, East Greenland. Plagioclase in these blocks contains finely crystallised melt inclusions that we have homogenised to constrain the parental magma to 47.4–49.0 wt.% SiO₂, 13.4–14.9 wt.% Al₂O₃ and 10.7–14.1 wt.% FeO^T. These compositions are lower in FeO^T and higher in SiO₂ than previous estimates and have distinct La/Sm_N and Dy/Yb_N ratios that link them to the lowermost volcanic succession (Milne Land Formation) of the regional East Greenland flood basalt province. New major- and trace element compositions for the FG-1 dyke swarm, previously taken to represent Skaergaard magmas, overlap with the entire range of the regional flood basalt succession and do not form a coherent suite of Skaergaard like melts. These dykes are therefore re-interpreted as feeder dykes throughout the main phase of flood basalt volcanism.     

Effect of sub‐core scale heterogeneities on acoustic and electrical properties of a reservoir rock: a CO2 flooding experiment of brine saturated sandstone in a computed tomography scanner

The effect of sub‐core scale heterogeneity on fluid distribution pattern, and the electrical and acoustic properties of a typical reservoir rock was studied by performing drainage and imbibition flooding tests with CO₂ and brine in a laboratory. Moderately layered Rothbach sandstone was used as a test specimen. Two core samples were drilled; one perpendicular and the other parallel to the layering to allow injection of fluids along and normal to the bedding plane. During the test 3D images of fluid distribution and saturation levels were mapped by an industrial X‐ray CT‐scanner together with simultaneous measurement of electrical resistivity, ultrasonic velocities as well as amplitudes. The results showed how the layering and the flooding direction influenced the fluid distribution pattern and the saturation level of the fluids. For a given fluid saturation level, the measured changes in the acoustic and electrical parameters were affected by both the fluid distribution pattern and the layering orientation relative to the measurement direction. The P‐wave amplitude and the electrical resistivity were more sensitive to small changes in the fluid distribution patterns than the P‐wave velocity. The change in amplitude was the most affected by the orientation of the layering and the resulting fluid distribution patterns. In some instances the change due to the fluid distribution pattern was higher than the variation caused by the change in CO₂ saturation. As a result the Gassmann relation based on ‘uniform' or ‘patchy' saturation pattern was not suitable to predict the P‐wave velocity variation. Overall, the results demonstrate the importance of core‐imaging to improve our understanding of fluid distribution patterns and the associated effects on measured rock‐physics properties.     

Total sediment budget of a transgressive barrier-spit,Skallingen, SW Denmark: A review

Average sea-level rise in the northern part of the Danish Wadden Sea has been 1.3 mm a^?1 during the last 100 years but during the last 25 years a rise of 4.2 mm a^?1 was observed. Concurrent with the recent sea-level rise the Skallingen barrier spit has migrated landward by 3–5 m a^?1. Long term sediment budgets for each of the morphological units involved in the migration are reviewed (e.g. onshore in the shore face +90.000 m³ a^?1, longshore -641.000 m³ a^?1, foredunes +65,000 m³ a^?1, overwash fan including shorenormal dunes +11,000 m³ a^?1, spit terminus -96,000 m³ a^?1, tidal flat + 10,000 m³ a^?1 and backbarrier salt marsh +33,000 m³ a^?1) and used to establish the relative importance of sediment transport processes involved in barrier migration. Strong interannual variations exist in the long term budget making evaluation of barrier behaviour based on short term measurements doubtful. In a cross shore sense the barrier spit is accreting in spite of the sea level rise. This is specially pronounced at an active overwash fan. However, due to substantial sediment losses to longshore transport the barrier, gets narrower and shorter during its transgressive behaviour. This may indicate that preservation of barriers in the geological record during rapid sea level rise is promoted when sediment loss to longshore transport is insignificant.     

Delineation of groundwater provenance in a coastal aquifer using statistical and isotopic methods,Southeast Tanzania

Rapid population growth and urbanization has placed a high demand on freshwater resources in southeast costal Tanzania. In this paper, we identify the various sources of groundwater and the major factors affecting the groundwater quality by means of multivariate statistical analyses, using chemical tracers and stable isotope signatures. The results from hierarchical cluster analyses show that the groundwater in the study area may be classified into four groups. A factor analysis indicates that groundwater composition is mainly affected by three processes, accounting for 80.6% of the total data variance: seawater intrusion, dilution of groundwater by recharge, and sewage infiltration. The hydrochemical facies of shallow groundwater was mostly of the Na–Ca–Cl type, although other water types were also observed. The deep groundwater samples were slightly to moderately mineralized and they were of the NaHCO₃ type. This water type is induced mainly by dissolution of carbonate minerals and modified by ion exchange reactions. The signal from the stable isotope composition of the groundwater samples corresponded well with the major chemical characteristics. In the shallow groundwater, both high-nitrate and high-chloride concentrations were associated with localized stable isotope enrichments which offset the meteoric isotopic signature. This is inferred to be due to the contamination by influx of sewage, as well as intrusion by seawater. The depleted stable isotope values, which coincides with a chemical signature for the deep aquifer indicates that this deep groundwater is derived from infiltration in the recharge zone followed by slow lateral percolation. This study shows that a conceptual hydrogeochemical interpretation of the results from multivariate statistical analysis (using HCA and FA) on water chemistry, including isotopic data, provides a powerful tool for classifying the sources of groundwater and identifying the significant factors governing the groundwater quality. The derived knowledge generated by this study constitutes a conceptual framework for investigating groundwater characteristics. This is a prerequisite for developing a sound management plan, which is a requirement for ensuring a sustainable exploitation of the deep aquifer water resource in the coastal area of Tanzania.     

On the potential for CO2 mineral storage in continental flood basalts - PHREEQC batch- and 1D diffusion-reaction simulations

ABSTRACT: Continental flood basalts (CFB) are considered as potential CO2 storage sites because of their high reactivity and abundant divalent metal ions that can potentially trap carbon for geological timescales. Moreover, laterally extensive CFB are found in many place in the world within reasonable distances from major CO2 point emission sources.Based on the mineral and glass composition of the Columbia River Basalt (CRB) we estimated the potential of CFB to store CO2 in secondary carbonates. We simulated the system using kinetic dependent dissolution of primary basalt-minerals (pyroxene, feldspar and glass) and the local equilibrium assumption for secondary phases (weathering products). The simulations were divided into closed-system batch simulations at a constant CO2 pressure of 100?bar with sensitivity studies of temperature and reactive surface area, an evaluation of the reactivity of H2O in scCO2, and finally 1D reactive diffusion simulations giving reactivity at CO2 pressures varying from 0 to 100?bar.Although the uncertainty in reactive surface area and corresponding reaction rates are large, we have estimated the potential for CO2 mineral storage and identified factors that control the maximum extent of carbonation. The simulations showed that formation of carbonates from basalt at 40?C may be limited to the formation of siderite and possibly FeMg carbonates. Calcium was largely consumed by zeolite and oxide instead of forming carbonates. At higher temperatures (60 - 100?C), magnesite is suggested to form together with siderite and ankerite. The maximum potential of CO2 stored as solid carbonates, if CO2 is supplied to the reactions unlimited, is shown to depend on the availability of pore space as the hydration and carbonation reactions increase the solid volume and clog the pore space. For systems such as in the scCO2 phase with limited amount of water, the total carbonation potential is limited by the amount of water present for hydration of basalt.     

Field measurements of shear stress and friction in the surf zone

Measurements of near-bed shear stress were undertaken in the shallow subtidal zone at Durras Beach, NSW, Australia using a sideways-looking acoustic velocity meter installed within the wave boundary layer. The wave climate was swell-dominated and wave conditions comprised shoaling and breaking waves as well as surf bores. The sediment at the field site was medium-grained sand, and observations of bedform geometry were conducted using a pencilbeam-sonar system. Using frequency-filtering techniques, the measured stresses were partitioned into terms representing turbulent (Reynolds) stress, stresses due to gravity and infragravity-scale oscillatory motions, and wave-turbulence-mean current cross-terms. Gravity wave-orbital scale motions contributed the largest fraction of the stresses, comprising 24% on average, followed by long-wave advection of vertical orbital motion (16%). The presence of wave orbital-scale motions near or at the water/sediment interface was likely due to the porous nature of the seabed, facilitating interfacial flow. Shear stresses did not scale with bed roughness but exhibited a linear relationship with the relative wave height. This indicates that for the experimental conditions, surf zone processes overwhelmed bed roughness effects on shear stress and friction. Calculations of the wave friction factor, f_w, showed that in a natural surf zone, this was a factor 3–4 larger than conventional predictions. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Formation and diagenesis of bedding cycles in uppermost Cretaceous chalks of the Dan Field, Danish North Sea

Metre-scale lithologic cycles, visible in core and on logs from Maastrichtian chalks of the Dan Field, were examined to determine their mechanisms of deposition and relation to hydrocarbon production. The lower parts of cycles consist of porous, cream-coloured, largely non-stylolitic, commonly laminated chalk with limited bioturbation (mainly escape burrows). Cycles are capped by thinner intervals of white to grey, hard, stylolitic chalk with concentrations of bioclastic material, intense burrowing and few preserved primary sedimentary structures. The cycle caps contain nearly twice as much Mg as compared to the more porous parts of cycles and also have slightly larger δ¹⁸O values (?4·1‰ for the caps; ?4·4‰ for porous zones). There is a significant reduction of average cycle thickness, as well as total thickness of the Maastrichtian chalk section, from SW to NE across the Dan Field. The cycle thinning largely results from a reduced thickness of porous chalks from the lower parts of cycles and thus is reflected in lower average porosity and permeability on the NE side of the field. These data indicate that episodic winnowing removed fine-grained constituents from highstanding northeastern areas. Porous cycle bases were deposited at relatively high rates that precluded complete bioturbation; preserved laminae, coupled with escape burrows, reflect episodic sediment influx in areas that flank the seafloor highs. Cycle tops apparently accumulated more slowly (throughout the region, but especially on seafloor highs), perhaps because of reduced productivity of planktic organisms. Slower sedimentation allowed more complete bioturbation and destruction of sedimentary structures, and also led to incipient high-magnesium calcite seafloor cementation (sufficient to yield firmer sediment and enhanced burrow preservation, but not to form true hardgrounds). Thus, the elevated magnesium contents and reduced porosity of the cycle caps reflect very early diagenetic processes that were only partially modified by burial diagenesis. Rates of chalk deposition, as inferred from physical and geochemical evidence, appear to be a significant control on reservoir characteristics in North Sea chalks. The highest average porosities and permeabilities are found in areas with the highest sediment accumulation rates where seafloor diagenesis is minimized. Topographic depressions at the time of sedimentation can thus be expected to have the best production characteristics, and synsedimentary topographic highs should have the thinnest sections and the poorest petrophysical properties.