Forecast of the key parameters of the 24-th solar cycle

To predict the key parameters of the solar cycle,a new method is proposed based on the empirical law describing the correlation between the maximum height of the preceding solar cycle and the entropy of the forthcoming one.The entropy of the forthcoming cycle may be estimated using this empirical law,if the maximum height of the current cycle is known.The cycle entropy is shown to correlate well with the cycle's maximum height and,as a consequence,the height of the forthcoming maximum can be estimated.In turn,the correlation found between the height of the maximum and the duration of the ascending branch(the Waldmeier rule)allows the epoch of the maximum,Tmax,to be estimated,if the date of the minimum is known.Moreover,using the law discovered,one can find out the analogous cycles which are similar to the cycle being forecasted,and hence,obtain the synoptic forecast of all main features of the forthcoming cycle.The estimates have shown the accuracy level of this technique to be 86%.The new regularities discovered are also interesting because they are fundamental in the theory of solar cycles and may provide new empirical data.The main parameters of the future solar cycle 24 are as follows: the height of the maximum is Wmax = 95±20,the duration of the ascending branch is Ta = 4.5±0.5 yr,the total cycle duration according to the synoptic forecast is 11.3 yr.     

The influence of halo assembly on galaxies and galaxy groups

In this paper, we study the variations of group galaxy properties according to the assembly history in Sloan Digital Sky Survey Data Release 6 (SDSS-DR6) selected groups. Using mock SDSS group catalogues, we find two suitable indicators of group formation time: (i) the isolation of the group, defined as the distance to the nearest neighbour in terms of its virial radius and (ii) the concentration, measured as the group inner density calculated using the fifth nearest bright galaxy to the group centre. Groups within narrow ranges of mass in the mock catalogue show increasing group age with isolation and concentration. However, in the observational data the stellar age, as indicated by the spectral type, only shows a correlation with concentration.
We study groups of similar mass and different assembly history, finding important differences in their galaxy population. Particularly, in high-mass SDSS groups, the number of members, mass-to-light ratios, red galaxy fractions and the magnitude difference between the brightest and second-brightest group galaxies, show different trends as a function of isolation and concentration, even when it is expected that the latter two quantities correlate with group age. Conversely, low-mass SDSS groups appear to be less sensitive to their assembly history.
The correlations detected in the SDSS are not consistent with the trends measured in the mock catalogues. However, discrepancies can be explained in terms of the disagreement found in the age-isolation trends, suggesting that the model might be overestimating the effects of environment. We discuss how the modelling of the cold gas in satellite galaxies could be responsible for this problem. These results can be used to improve our understanding of the evolution of galaxies in high-density environments.     

The distribution of late-Quaternary woody taxa in northern Eurasia: evidence from a new macrofossil database

We present a database of late-Quaternary plant macrofossil records for northern Eurasia (from 23° to 180°E and 46° to 76°N) comprising 281 localities, over 2300 samples and over 13,000 individual records. Samples are individually radiocarbon dated or are assigned ages via age models fitted to sequences of calibrated radiocarbon dates within a section. Tree species characteristic of modern northern forests (e.g. Picea, Larix, tree-Betula) are recorded at least intermittently from prior to the last glacial maximum (LGM), through the LGM and Lateglacial, to the Holocene, and some records locate trees close to the limits of the Scandinavian ice sheet, supporting the hypothesis that some taxa persisted in northern refugia during the last glacial cycle. Northern trees show differing spatio-temporal patterns across Siberia: deciduous trees were widespread in the Lateglacial, with individuals occurring across much of their contemporary ranges, while evergreen conifers expanded northwards to their range limits in the Holocene.     

The precession phase of hydrological variability in the Western Pacific Warm Pool during the past 400 ka

The low-latitude hydrological cycle is a key climate parameter on different timescales, as it contributes to various feedback processes. Modelling studies suggest that the interhemispheric insolation contrast is the major factor controlling the cycle, although the influence of glacial conditions and the phase relationships relative to insolation forcing remain undetermined. In this work, we studied precipitation variability over Papua New Guinea (PNG, 3°S) for the past 400 ka using terrigenous fractions transported by the Sepik River to the Western Pacific Warm Pool (WPWP). A multi-decadal to centennial resolution of the elemental content was obtained using X-ray fluorescence scanning of a marine sediment core using an age model based on ¹⁴C dates and benthic foraminiferal δ¹⁸O. Indicators of the coarse river particulate fraction (bulk and CaCO₃-free basis Ti concentrations, the log intensity ratios of Ti/K and Ti/Ca) displayed a dominant 23 ka periodicity without a clear glacial–interglacial trend. Our precipitation records showed a tight relationship with local summer insolation (3°S, January) with time-dependent lag of 0 to 4 ka. They were generally in anti-phase for U–Th dated Chinese speleothem δ¹⁸O records. Based on an analogy to modern climate, we propose that precipitation over PNG was primarily determined by interhemispheric insolation contrast, and the contribution of austral fall/winter precipitation added second-order variability that formed the lags. For the last four climate cycles, the WPWP hydrological cycle was closely associated with the eastern Asian monsoon, and the influence of glacial conditions on the low-latitude hydrological cycle was estimated to be limited.     

Slow glitches in the pulsar B1822-09

The pulsar B1822-09 (J1825-0935) experienced a series of five unusual, slow glitches over the 1995–2004 interval. The results of further study of this unusual glitch phenomenon are presented. It is also reported the detection a new glitch of typical signature that occurred in the pulsar period in 2006 January.      

晚震旦世至早寒武世扬子地台北缘碳同位素研究

震旦-寒武交变期是地史上一个重大转折期,亦是一个具有特殊意义的过渡时期。运用碳同位素地球化学方法,探讨扬子地台北缘四川南江地区晚震旦世-早寒武世交变期,碳同位素地球化学异常与环境变化和生物演化的相互联系。南江剖面沉积岩有机碳同位素组成在-35．8‰～-30．1‰间变化;碳酸盐碳同位素组成从-3．5‰～ 0．5‰。在灯影组顶部、牛蹄塘组下部和上部,变化的碳、硫同位素组成和不同的黄铁矿与有机碳含量反映了有机碳埋藏量和环境的变化。下寒武统富有机碳和黄铁矿的黑色页岩沉积,暗示了早寒武世早期缺氧环境的存在。     

Early Cretaceous flora from coal-bearing strata of Markovsky Peninsula in South Primorye，Russia

The Early Cretaceous flora from the coal-bearing strata(Ussuri and Lipovtsy formations)in the Markovsky peninsula of South Primorye,Far East Russia,is reported in some detail in this paper.The flora containing over 80 species of about 50 genera can be divided into two assemblages.The paleofloristic characteristics and the comparisons of this flora with its coeval floras from the adjacent region of the eastern Heilongjiang of Northeast China,indicate the flora and its coal-bearing strata of the Markovsky peninsula can be compared to those of the Chengzihe and Muling formations of the Jixi area of Heilongjiang,representing probably the late Barremian and Aptian age,respectively.     

Faunal communities at sites of gas- and oil-bearing fluids in Lake Baikal

Macro- and meiofaunal communities were examined at four geomorphologically distinct sites with different gas- and oil-bearing fluid characteristics in the northern, central and southern basins of Lake Baikal. All sites had elevated concentrations of bicarbonate, nitrate, sulphate and chloride ions in pore fluids, with highest values at the Frolikha vent. Elevated levels of iron ions were found in pore waters of the St. Petersburg methane seep and the Gorevoy Utes oil seep. The chemical composition of pore waters at the Malenky mud volcano was similar to that reported in earlier work. Consistent with published data, the Frolikha vent (northern basin) and the St. Petersburg methane seep (central basin) were characterised by methane of mixed genesis (thermogenic + biogenic), whereas the methane source was mainly thermogenic at the Gorevoy Utes oil seep (central basin) and biogenic at the Malenky mud volcano (southern basin). In contrast to marine seep ecosystems, the macrofauna was dominated only by amphipods, giant planarians and oligochaetes, whereas bivalves were absent; the meiofauna was similar to its marine counterpart, being dominated by nematodes, cyclops, harpacticoids and ostracods. A statistically significant positive relationship was revealed between faunal abundance and the availability of bacterial mats on seep sediments. Moreover, ANOVA tests showed significant increases in both meiozoobenthic and macrozoobenthic densities at “hot spot” vent/seep sites relative to discharge-free reference sites. The isotopic composition of carbon and nitrogen at various trophic levels of these benthic vent/seep communities was found to differ markedly from that reported by earlier studies for the pelagic and other benthic food webs in Lake Baikal. As in marine seeps, the macrofauna had variable isotopic signatures. Light δ¹³C and δ¹⁵N values suggest the utilization of chemosynthetically fixed and/or methane-derived organic matter. By contrast, the heavy δ¹³C signatures of some mobile amphipods likely reflect consumption of photosynthetically derived carbon. These findings would at least partly explain why Lake Baikal is a notable outlier in global temperature–biodiversity patterns, exhibiting the highest biodiversity of any lake worldwide but at an extremely cold average temperature.     

Euler homogeneity equation along ridges for a rapid estimation of potential field source properties

The Euler deconvolution is the most popular technique used to interpret potential field data in terms of simple sources characterized by the value of the degree of homogeneity. A more recent technique, the continuous wavelet transform, allows the same kind of interpretation. The Euler deconvolution is usually applied to data at a constant level while the continuous wavelet transform is usually applied to the points belonging to lines (ridges) connecting the m -order partial derivative modulus maxima of the upward-continued field at different altitudes in the harmonic region. In this paper a new method is proposed that unifies the two techniques. The method consists of the application of Euler's equation to the ridges so that the equation assumes a reduced form. Along each ridge the ratio among the m -order partial derivative of the field and its vertical partial derivative, for isolated source model, is a straight line whose slope and intercept allows the estimation of the source depth and degree of homogeneity. The method, strictly valid for single source model, has also been applied to the multisource case, where the presence of the interference among the field generated by each single source causes the path of the ratio to be no longer straight. The method in this case gives approximate solutions that are good estimations of the source depth and its degree of homogeneity only for a restricted range of altitudes, where the ratio is approximately linear and the source behaves as if it were isolated.