An analytical approach to ascertain saturation‐excess versus infiltration‐excess overland flow in urban and reference landscapes

Uncontrolled overland flow drives flooding, erosion, and contaminant transport, with the severity of these outcomes often amplified in urban areas. In pervious media such as urban soils, overland flow is initiated via either infiltration‐excess (where precipitation rate exceeds infiltration capacity) or saturation‐excess (when precipitation volume exceeds soil profile storage) mechanisms. These processes call for different management strategies, making it important for municipalities to discern between them. In this study, we derived a generalized one‐dimensional model that distinguishes between infiltration‐excess overland flow (IEOF) and saturation‐excess overland flow (SEOF) using Green–Ampt infiltration concepts. Next, we applied this model to estimate overland flow generation from pervious areas in 11 U.S. cities. We used rainfall forcing that represented low‐ and high‐intensity events and compared responses among measured urban versus predevelopment reference soil hydraulic properties. The derivation showed that the propensity for IEOF versus SEOF is related to the equivalence between two nondimensional ratios: (a) precipitation rate to depth‐weighted hydraulic conductivity and (b) depth of soil profile restrictive layer to soil capillary potential. Across all cities, reference soil profiles were associated with greater IEOF for the high‐intensity set of storms, and urbanized soil profiles tended towards production of SEOF during the lower intensity set of storms. Urban soils produced more cumulative overland flow as a fraction of cumulative precipitation than did reference soils, particularly under conditions associated with SEOF. These results will assist cities in identifying the type and extent of interventions needed to manage storm water produced from pervious areas.     

Aspects of wave behaviour in the mid‐ and upper troposphere of the southern Hemisphere

Abstract

The zonal wavenumber spectra of the geopotential heights of the 300‐ and 500‐mb surfaces in the Southern Hemisphere were determined for each month between May 1972 and November 1979 using daily operational analyses produced by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. During over one‐quarter of the “summer” months (November through March) there are very prominent peaks at zonal wavenumber five in the region of the mid‐latitude jet (～35–60°S). Frequently wavenumber five totally dominates the eddy fields in individual daily maps so that height contours in mid‐latitudes take on virtually pentagonal shapes. During periods when wavenumber 5 is prominent, it is observed to propagate eastward in a very regular manner with a period of about eleven days. All these findings are consistent with Salby's (1982) earlier results concerning the Southern Hemisphere height fields during the first few months of the FGGE experiment.

There is little evidence for a similar phenomenon in the winter circulation of the Southern Hemisphere.     

Climate change and future flows of Rocky Mountain rivers: converging forecasts from empirical trend projection and down‐scaled global circulation modelling

To predict future river flows, empirical trend projection (ETP) analyses and extends historic trends, while hydroclimatic modelling (HCM) incorporates regional downscaling from global circulation model (GCM) outputs. We applied both approaches to the extensively allocated Oldman River Basin that drains the North American Rocky Mountains and provides an international focus for water sharing. For ETP, we analysed monthly discharges from 1912 to 2008 with non‐parametric regression, and extrapolated changes to 2055. For modelling, we refined the physical models MTCLIM and SNOPAC to provide water inputs into RIVRQ (river discharge), a model that assesses the streamflow regime as involving dynamic peaks superimposed on stable baseflow. After parameterization with 1960–1989 data, we assessed climate forecasts from six GCMs: CGCM1‐A, HadCM3, NCAR‐CCM3, ECHAM4 and 5 and GCM2. Modelling reasonably reconstructed monthly hydrographs (R² about 0·7), and averaging over three decades closely reconstructed the monthly pattern (R² = 0·94). When applied to the GCM forecasts, the model predicted that summer flows would decline considerably, while winter and early spring flows would increase, producing a slight decline in the annual discharge (?3%, 2005–2055). The ETP predicted similarly decreased summer flows but slight change in winter flows and greater annual flow reduction (?9%). The partial convergence of the seasonal flow projections increases confidence in a composite analysis and we thus predict further declines in summer (about ? 15%) and annual flows (about ? 5%). This composite projection indicates a more modest change than had been anticipated based on earlier GCM analyses or trend projections that considered only three or four decades. For other river basins, we recommend the utilization of ETP based on the longest available streamflow records, and HCM with multiple GCMs. The degree of correspondence from these two independent approaches would provide a basis for assessing the confidence in projections for future river flows and surface water supplies. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Local Spatiotemporal Modeling of House Prices: A Mixed Model Approach

The real estate market has long provided an active application area for spatial–temporal modeling and analysis and it is well known that house prices tend to be not only spatially but also temporally correlated. In the spatial dimension, nearby properties tend to have similar values because they share similar characteristics, but house prices tend to vary over space due to differences in these characteristics. In the temporal dimension, current house prices tend to be based on property values from previous years and in the spatial–temporal dimension, the properties on which current prices are based tend to be in close spatial proximity. To date, however, most research on house prices has adopted either a spatial perspective or a temporal one; relatively little effort has been devoted to situations where both spatial and temporal effects coexist. Using ten years of house price data in Fife, Scotland (2003–2012), this research applies a mixed model approach, semiparametric geographically weighted regression (GWR), to explore, model, and analyze the spatiotemporal variations in the relationships between house prices and associated determinants. The study demonstrates that the mixed modeling technique provides better results than standard approaches to predicting house prices by accounting for spatiotemporal relationships at both global and local scales.     

Characteristics of drift pumice from New Caledonia beaches

Siliceous drift pumice was collected from a total of 40 beaches around the main island of New Caledonia, Southwest Pacific, in order to determine its provenance. New Caledonia is enclosed by a barrier reef lagoon whose 2008 designation as a UNESCO World Heritage Site brought attention to the environmental degradation caused by a century of open cast nickel mining. The frequent, voluminous pumice eruptions in the Southwest Pacific provide ample source material that is somewhat durable, highly transportable in water, and easy to collect and analyze. Geochemical and mineralogical analyses were used to identify the source of the pumice in order to map the transport vector across the open ocean and into the lagoon. Drift pumice was sampled during 2008 and 2010. The mineral assemblage of the pumice was consistently calcic plagioclase, clinopyroxene, orthopyroxene, and opaque minerals. All of the pumice was of fairly uniform geochemistry: low in mafic elements, low in alkalis, with LILE enriched compared to HFSE, and negative Eu, Ti, and Zr anomalies. The pumice is predominately dacitic and tholeiitic. This geochemical signature was consistent with published data from the Tonga arc, which is further supported by the mineralogy. With the exception of two samples (which probably came from either the Kermadec arc or Vanuatu) all of the pumice comes from the Tonga arc. The samples from 2008 are consistent with pumice erupted from Metis Shoal in 2006, and the majority of 2010 samples are consistent with pumice erupted from an unnamed volcano (0403-091) that erupted in 2001.     

Warm frontal structure in association with a rapidly deepening extratropical cyclone

Abstract

The detailed characteristics of a CASPII warm frontal passage are presented in this article. This storm, Intensive Operating Period (IOP) 13 (February 26–27, 1992), was observed in detail with an array of diverse instruments. It has the advantage over earlier freezing precipitation studies of having simultaneous, in situ and remote sensing measurements by aircraft and ground‐based Doppler radar.

The associated precipitation was in the form of banded structures parallel to the front. Within these bands were embedded precipitation cores, some parallel to the band, some perpendicular. The warm front itself was characterized by major perturbations in its kinematic and thermodynamic features. The cores oriented parallel to the front were the result of embedded convection generated, at least in part, by the irregularities in the frontal surface.

The cores oriented perpendicular to the front were closely associated with the 0°C isotherm on the underside of the frontal inversion. Precipitation phase changes played a significant role in the occurrence of wide near 0°C regions, both vertically and horizontally. These regions had a profound influence on the observed precipitation types and led to complex precipitation‐thermodynamic‐dynamic interactions. Instabilities produced by these interactions are seen in wave‐like features observed by the Doppler radar in these regions, both parallel and perpendicular to the frontal zone.     

The Arunta Inlier: a complex ensialic mobile belt in central Australia. Part 1: Stratigraphy,correlations and origin

The Arunta Inlier is a 200 000 km² region of mainly Precambrian metamorphosed sedimentary and igneous rock in central Australia. To the N it merges with similar rocks of lower metamorphic grade in the Tennant Creek Inlier, and to the NW it merges with schist and gneiss of The Granites‐Tanami Province. It is characterized by mafic and felsic meta‐igneous rocks, abundant silicic and aluminous metasediments and carbonate, and low‐ to medium‐pressure metamorphism. Hence, the Arunta Inlier is interpreted as a Proterozoic ensialic mobile belt floored by continental crust. The belt evolved over about 1500 Ma, and began with mafic and felsic volcanism and mafic intrusion in a latitudinal rift, followed by shale and limestone deposition, deformation, metamorphism and emergence. Flysch sedimentation and volcanism then continued in geosynclinal troughs flanking the ridge of meta‐igneous rocks, and were followed by platform deposition of thin shallow‐marine sediments, further deformation, and episodes of metamorphism and granite intrusion.     

Dynamics of the Tropical Middle Atmosphere: A Tutorial Review*

Abstract

The general circulation of the tropical stratosphere, mesosphere and lowermost thermosphere is discussed at a tutorial level. Observations of the quasi‐biennial and semiannual oscillations by both in situ and satellite techniques are first reviewed. The basic dynamics controlling the zonal‐mean component of the circulation are then discussed. The role of radiative diabatic cooling in constraining the zonal‐mean circulation in the middle atmosphere is emphasized. It is shown that the effectiveness of this radiative constraint is reduced at low latitudes, allowing for the sustained mean flow accelerations over long periods of time characteristic of the quasi‐biennial and semiannual oscillations in the tropics.

The current view is that the dominant driving for the equatorial mean flow accelerations seen in the middle atmosphere derives from vertically‐propagating waves. This process is illustrated here in its simplest context, i.e. the Plumb (1977) model of the interaction of monochromatic internal gravity waves with the mean flow (based on earlier work of Lindzen and Holton, 1968; Holton and Lindzen, 1972). It is shown that the dynamics illustrated by this simple model can serve as the basis for an explanation of the quasi‐biennial oscillation.

The paper then describes some of recent developments in the theory of the quasi‐biennial and semiannual oscillations, including aspects related to the interaction between tropics and midlatitudes in the middle atmosphere. The paper concludes with a discussion of the effects of the long period dynamical variations in the tropical circulation on the chemical composition of the stratosphere.     

On the role of soil moisture in daytime evolution of temperatures

This paper explores the relationship between temperature, evaporation and soil moisture using a planetary boundary layer (PBL) model. It focuses on illustrating and quantifying the effect of soil moisture on the evolution of daytime temperatures. A simple convective PBL model coupled with the Penman–Monteith (PM) equation is used to estimate evapotranspiration. Following calibration and sensitivity analysis, the model was used to simulate the relative impact of dry and wet soil moisture conditions on daytime temperatures by changing the surface resistance parameter in the PM equation. It was found that the maximum temperature that can be reached during a day is constrained by the amount of soil moisture and the available net radiation, confirming previously published results. Higher temperatures can be reached with greater net radiation and dry soil moisture conditions. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.