Will climate change exacerbate water stress in Central Asia?

Millions of people in the geopolitically important region of Central Asia depend on water from snow- and glacier-melt driven international rivers, most of all the Syr Darya and Amu Darya. The riparian countries of these rivers have experienced recurring water allocation conflicts ever since the Soviet Union collapsed. Will climate change exacerbate water stress and thus conflicts? We have developed a coupled climate, land-ice and rainfall-runoff model for the Syr Darya to quantify impacts and show that climatic changes are likely to have consequences on runoff seasonality due to earlier snow-melt. This will increase water stress in unregulated catchments because less water will be available for irrigation in the summer months. Threats from geohazards, above all glacier lake outbursts, are likely to increase as well. The area at highest risk is the densely populated, agriculturally productive, and politically unstable Fergana Valley. Targeted infrastructural developments will be required in the region. If the current mismanagement of water and energy resources can be replaced with more effective resource allocation mechanisms through the strengthening of transboundary institutions, Central Asia will be able to successfully address these future climate-related challenges.     

Footprints in Homogeneously and Heterogeneously Driven Boundary Layers Derived from a Lagrangian Stochastic Particle Model Embedded into Large-Eddy Simulation

A Lagrangian stochastic (LS) model, which is embedded into a parallelised large-eddy simulation (LES) model, is used for dispersion and footprint evaluations. For the first time an online coupling between LES and LS models is applied. The new model reproduces concentration patterns, which were obtained in prior studies, provided that subgrid-scale turbulence is included in the LS model. Comparisons with prior studies show that the model evaluates footprints successfully. Streamwise dispersion leads to footprint maxima that are situated less far upstream than previously reported. Negative flux footprints are detected in the convective boundary layer (CBL). The wide range of applicability of the model is shown by applying it under neutral and stable stratification. It is pointed out that the turning of the wind direction with height leads to a considerable dependency of source areas on height. First results of an application to a heterogeneously heated CBL are presented, which emphasize that footprints are severely affected by the inhomogeneity.     

Noble gas adsorption with and without mechanical stress: Not Martian signatures but fractionated air

Abstract– Sample preparation, involving physical and chemical methods, is an unavoidable step in geochemical analysis. From a noble gas perspective, the two important effects are loss of sample gas and/or incorporation of air, which are significant sources of analytical artifacts. This article reports on the effects of sample exposure to laboratory air without mechanical influence and during sample grinding. The experiments include pure adsorption on terrestrial analog materials (gibbsite and olivine) and grinding of Martian meteorites. A consistent observation is the presence of an elementally fractionated air component in the samples studied. This is a critical form of terrestrial contamination in meteorites as it often mimics the heavy noble gas signatures of known extra‐terrestrial end‐members that are the basis of important conclusions about the origin and evolution of a meteorite. Although the effects of such contamination can be minimized by avoiding elaborate sample preparation protocols, caution should be exercised in interpreting the elemental ratios (Ar/Xe, Kr/Xe), especially in the low‐temperature step extractions. The experiments can also be transferred to the investigation of Martian meteorites with long terrestrial residence times, and to Mars, where the Mars Science Laboratory mission will be able to measure noble gas signatures in the current atmosphere and in rocks and soils collected on the surface in Gale crater.     

Mercury: Internal structure and thermal evolution

Astronomical observations and cosmochemical calculations suggest that the planet Mercury may be composed of materials which condensed at relatively high temperatures in the primitive solar nebula and may have a basaltic crust similar to parts of the moon. These findings, plus the long standing inference that Mercury is much richer in metallic iron than the other terrestrial planets, provide important constraints which we apply to models of the thermal evolution and density structure of the planet. The thermal history calculations include explicitly the differing thermal properties of iron and silicates and account for core segregation, melting and differentiation of heat sources, and simulated convection during melting. If the U and Th abundances of Mercury are taken from the cosmochemical model of Lewis, then the planet would have fully differentiated a metal core from the silicate mantle for all likely initial temperature distributions and heat transfer properties. Density distributions for the planet are calculated from the mean density and estimates of the present-day temperature. For the fully differentiated model, the moment of inertia C/MR² is 0.325 (J₂=0.302×10^?6). For models with lower heat source abundances, the planet may not yet have differentiated. The density profiles for such models give C/MR²=0.394 (J₂=0.487×10^?6). These results should be useful for preliminary interpretation of the Mariner 10 measurements of Mercury's gravitational field.     

Catch Crop Known to Decrease N-leaching also Counteracts Soil CO2 Emissions

CO₂ emissions to the atmosphere were studied in a fertilized sandy agricultural soil with and without a catch crop sown into the main crop. The catch crop was grown primarily with the purpose to decrease N-leaching but this study also wanted to find out if the catch crop could have an effect in a climate change perspective. Plots with catch crop showed decreased CO₂ emissions from the soil. Since previous results have shown that catch crops effectively decrease N-leaching we recommend growing catch crops as an effective measure for helping both the climate and the eutrophication issue. Seasonal variations in CO₂ emissions were pronounced with maximum emissions from the fertilized agricultural soil in June and from an adjacent unmanaged grassland in August. From the plot with catch crop emissions decreased in July and August but somewhat increased later in the autumn. Fertilized agricultural soil showed a within-soil CO₂ sink after harvest, i.e. within-soil CO₂ uptake. Availability of NH₄⁺ or NO₃^- in the soil seems to influence the within-soil CO₂ sink, with NH₄⁺ enforcing the sink while the same amount of NO₃^- instead increased CO₂ emissions.     

土壤中氮碳间相互作用对全球碳循环的影响(英文)

氮循环中的能量产生过程构成与全球碳循环间的重要关联。例如,氮投入土壤,一开始导致CO2排放降低。这一众所周知的效应被理解为土壤呼吸作用受到阻碍或延缓。然而,当把冗余考虑在内便知,氮投入并不使最初得到的CO2最低排放量保持不变,而是逐渐导致排放增加。土壤中硝化作用对CO2消耗过程的特异性抑制,加上铵冗余投入或乙炔作用,往往导致额外的CO2排放量。这种总自养性呼吸(GHR)与CO2净排放(NHR)之间的差就是土壤内CO2汇。土壤呼吸作用单纯由NHR产生的CO2排放量(通常情况)来决定会导致对土壤系统的曲解,特别是在氮沉降量高的地区。因此,必须重新考虑温暖区域土壤呼吸作用的"适应环境"问题。可能也需要质疑氮投入带来的"呼吸抑制"概念。无视这些过程,包括上述氮驱动下的土壤内CO2汇过程,也许会有碍于采取足够的措施来对抗气候变化。     

Paleo- and Neoproterozoic magmatic and tectonometamorphic evolution of the Isla Cristalina de Rivera (Nico Pérez Terrane, Uruguay)

The Isla Cristalina de Rivera crystalline complex in northeastern Uruguay underwent a multistage magmatic and metamorphic evolution. Based on SHRIMP U–Pb zircon, Th–U–Pb monazite (CHIME-EPMA method) and K–Ar age data from key units several events can be recognized: (1) multistage magmatism at 2,171–2,114?Ma, recorded on zircon of the granulitic orthogneisses and their 2,093–2,077?Ma overgrowths; (2) a distinct amphibolite facies metamorphism at ~1,980?Ma, recorded by monazite; (3) greenschist facies reworking and shearing at ca. 606?Ma (monazite and K–Ar on muscovite) along the Rivera Shear Zone, and finally (4) intrusion of the post-tectonic Sobresaliente and Las Flores granites at around 585?Ma. Lithological similarities, geographic proximity and coeval magmatic and metamorphic events indicate a similar tectonometamorphic evolution for the Isla Cristalina de Rivera, the Valentines Block in Uruguay and the Santa María Chico Granulitic Complex in southern Brazil, since at least 2.1?Ga.     

High-resolution subtropical summer precipitation derived from dynamical downscaling of the NCEP/DOE reanalysis: how much small-scale information is added by a regional model?

This study assesses the regional-scale summer precipitation produced by the dynamical downscaling of analyzed large-scale fields. The main goal of this study is to investigate how much the regional model adds smaller scale precipitation information that the large-scale fields do not resolve. The modeling region for this study covers the southeastern United States (Florida, Georgia, Alabama, South Carolina, and North Carolina) where the summer climate is subtropical in nature, with a heavy influence of regional-scale convection. The coarse resolution (2.5° latitude/longitude) large-scale atmospheric variables from the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/DOE reanalysis (R2) are downscaled using the NCEP/Environmental Climate Prediction Center regional spectral model (RSM) to produce precipitation at 20?km resolution for 16 summer seasons (1990?C2005). The RSM produces realistic details in the regional summer precipitation at 20?km resolution. Compared to R2, the RSM-produced monthly precipitation shows better agreement with observations. There is a reduced wet bias and a more realistic spatial pattern of the precipitation climatology compared with the interpolated R2 values. The root mean square errors of the monthly R2 precipitation are reduced over 93% (1,697) of all the grid points in the five states (1,821). The temporal correlation also improves over 92% (1,675) of all grid points such that the domain-averaged correlation increases from 0.38 (R2) to 0.55 (RSM). The RSM accurately reproduces the first two observed eigenmodes, compared with the R2 product for which the second mode is not properly reproduced. The spatial patterns for wet versus dry summer years are also successfully simulated in RSM. For shorter time scales, the RSM resolves heavy rainfall events and their frequency better than R2. Correlation and categorical classification (above/near/below average) for the monthly frequency of heavy precipitation days is also significantly improved by the RSM.     

Representation of tropical storms in the northwestern pacific by the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for research and applications

This study examines the tropical storms simulated in the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) global atmospheric reanalysis for the recent 12 years (1998–2009), focusing on the tropical storm activity over the Northwestern Pacific. For validation, the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) dataset is used as an observational counterpart. Climatological-mean features of the tropical storm genesis, tracks and their maximum intensity are the primary interests in this study. Regarding the genesis location of tropical storms, MERRA is reasonable in resolving major development regions over the South China Sea and the Northwestern Pacific close to the Philippines. The seasonal variation of the number of storms is also reproduced in a realistic way in MERRA, with peak values occurring from July to September. In addition, MERRA tends to reproduce the observed interannual variation of the number of tropical storms during the 12-years, though with a limited accuracy. The simulated paths toward higher latitudes are also reasonable in MERRA, where the reanalysis corresponds well with the observations in resolving frequent paths of westward moving storms and recurving storms toward the northeast. Regarding the intensity, MERRA captures the linear relationship between the minimum center pressure and the maximum wind speed near the surface at the maximum development. Some discrepancies from the observed features are found in the reanalysis, such as less frequent development of storms over the South China Sea and less frequent paths over this region. The reanalysis also does not attain the observed maximum intensity for the resolved tropical storms, particularly underestimating the center pressure. These deficiencies are likely related to limitations in the horizontal resolution and the parameterized physics of the data assimilation system.