Simulation of high-impact tropical weather events: comparative analysis of three heavy rainfall events

Episodes of heavy rainfall, although relatively rare, significantly contribute to the hydrological cycle due to the large quantum of rainfall in a short span of time. Accurate simulation of such heavy or extreme rainfall events therefore is an important benchmark for a model. Here, we consider the simulation of three heavy rainfall events (Mumbai, Bangalore and Chennai) that occurred over the Indian monsoon region in different geographical locations and seasons during 2005, using a mesoscale meteorological model, namely MM5V3. Simulations have been carried out at high resolution (2 km) to resolve orographic features and land–ocean gradients over the event locations with a 3-nest, 2-way configuration. The primary objective of this study is to carry out a multi-event, multi-location evaluation of the model configuration for simulating a class of heavy rainfall events and to compare some important meteorological features of the events. Our results have shown that a very high relative humidity, low-level convergence, convective instability in terms of equivalent potential temperature, high vertical velocity, smaller mixing ratio at low level and higher mixing ratio at upper level essentially dominated and sustained the convective dynamics in all the three events. It was also found that the latent heat flux (LHF) dominated coastal events (Mumbai and Chennai) with relatively much higher values compared to sensible heat flux (SHF) throughout the event life cycle. In the case of the Bangalore event, both LHF and SHF are comparable during the event life cycle.     

Nowcasting Bordoichila with a composite stability index

In operational forecast, the stability indices either individually or in combination are utilized to assess the predictability of local severe storms over a region. The objective of the present study is to identify such stability indices to assess the predictability of Bordoichila of Guwahati, India, during the pre-monsoon season (April–May) aiming to formulate a composite stability index using the most pertinent indices for nowcasting Bordoichila with considerable precision. Bordoichila, meaning the angry daughter of Assam, represents local severe storms of Guwahati during the pre-monsoon season. Precise forecast of Bordoichila is essential to mitigate the associated catastrophe over Guwahati. The forecast quality detection parameters are computed with the available indices during the period from 1997 to 2006 to select the most relevant stability indices for the prevalence of Bordoichila. The method of normal probability distribution is implemented to identify the threshold ranges of the selected indices. The stability indices that are selected with appropriate ranges are lifted index, Showalter index (SI), cross total index (CTI), vertical total index, totals total, convective available potential energy, convective inhibition energy, SWEAT and bulk Richardson number. The forecast skill scores are estimated with the selected indices. The best predictor indices identified for the prevalence of Bordoichila are the cross total index (CTI) and Showalter index (SI). A composite stability index, Bordoichila prediction index, is formulated with CTI and SI with proper weightages. The forecast with BPI is validated with the observations of India Meteorological Department for the year 2007 and is implemented for real-time forecast for the years 2009 and 2011.     

Metamorphism of Proterozoic agpaitic nepheline syenite gneiss from North Singhbhum Mobile Belt, eastern India

Sushina nepheline syenite gneisses of Early Proterozoic North Singhbhum Mobile Belt (NSMB), eastern India suffered regional metamorphism under greenschist-amphibolite transitional facies condition. The Agpaitic Sushina nepheline syenite gneisses consist of albite, K-feldspar, nepheline (close to Morozewicz-Buerger composition), aegirine, biotite, epidote, piemontite, sodalite, cancrinite, natrolite and local alkali amphibole. Accessory phases include zircon, hematite, magnetite, rare pyrochlore and occasional eudialyte and manganoan calcic zirconosilicates. Mineral chemistry of albite, K-feldspar, nepheline, aegirine, alkali amphibole, natrolite and zirconium silicate minerals are described. The detailed textural features together with chemical data of some minerals indicate metamorphic overprint of these rocks. A new reaction is given for the genesis of metamorphic epidote. Metamorphic piemontite suggests greenschist facies metamorphism under high fO₂ (Hematite-Magnetite buffer). Up to 15.34 mol% of jadeite component in aegirine suggests that the metamorphic grade of the nepheline syenite gneiss reached at least to greenschist-amphibolite transitional facies or higher. Nepheline geothermometry suggests temperature of metamorphism <500 °C, which is consistent with greenschist facies metamorphism of surrounding chlorite-biotite-garnet phyllite country rock.     

Holocene climate forcings and lacustrine regime shifts in the Indian summer monsoon realm

Extreme climate events have been identified both in meteorological and long-term proxy records from the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) realm. However, the potential of palaeoclimate data for understanding mechanisms triggering climate extremes over long time scales has not been fully exploited. A distinction between proxies indicating climate change, environment, and ecosystem shift is crucial for enabling a comparison with forcing mechanisms (e.g. El-Niño Southern Oscillation). In this study we decouple these factors using data analysis techniques [multiplex recurrence network (MRN) and principal component analyses (PCA)] on multiproxy data from two lakes located in different climate regions – Lonar Lake (ISM dominated) and the high-altitude Tso Moriri Lake (ISM and westerlies influenced). Our results indicate that (i) MRN analysis, an indicator of changing environmental conditions, is associated with droughts in regions with a single climate driver but provides ambiguous results in regions with multiple climate/environmental drivers; (ii) the lacustrine ecosystem was ‘less sensitive’ to forcings during the early Holocene wetter periods; (iii) archives in climate zones with a single climate driver were most sensitive to regime shifts; (iv) data analyses are successful in identifying the timing of onset of climate change, and distinguishing between extrinsic and intrinsic (lacustrine) regime shifts by comparison with forcing mechanisms. Our results enable development of conceptual models to explain links between forcings and regional climate change that can be tested in climate models to provide an improved understanding of the ISM dynamics and their impact on ecosystems. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Chemical Procedures for Rhenium Extraction from Geological Samples: Optimising the Anion Resin Bead Clean‐up Step

Rhenium–osmium geochronometry for samples with low Re and complex matrices requires improved Re extraction methods. Here, we investigate plausible controls on efficiency and efficacy of Re extraction during our anion resin bead purification. Four different protocols are compared, each isolating a single variable to test. Rhenium concentrations for solutions at each step of each protocol document differences in chemical recovery/yield. The negative‐thermal ionisation mass spectrometry (N‐TIMS) signal intensity serves as a proxy for Re yield and purity. These data document correlations between the N‐TIMS signal intensity and (a) the duration of anion resin bead conditioning prior to loading with Re‐bearing solution, and (b) both duration and strength of nitric acid used during rinsing of the Re‐loaded anion resin bead. The optimal protocol improved Re signal intensity around fourteen times compared with our current Re extraction protocol, an aggregate of 2.4 times improvement in chemical recovery (yield) and 5.8 times improvement in emission efficiency (purity). Repeated N‐TIMS isotopic measurements on our in‐house Re standard solution (1407) verify that our optimal protocol‐3 does not fractionate Re isotopes. The improved anion resin bead method considerably lowers the Re detection limit and allows Re‐Os isotopic analysis of picogram‐level Re hosted in geological samples with complex matrices.     

A study of solar modulation of medium energy primary cosmic ray nuclei

The energy spectra of primary cosmic rays were studied in the energy interval 150 to 450 MeV/nucl by using balloon-borne cellulose-nitrate solid-state plastic detector. Effects of solar modulation were studied using the theoretical spectrum ofH ₁ nuclei near the solar minimum in 1964 as the demodulated spectrum. The ‘force-field’ potential which fit the experimental results was estimated to be 270 MeV/nucl.     

Abundance analysis of the long period southern cepheid RZ Vel

The long period classical cepheid RZ Vel (HD 73502) is known to be a member of an OB association, Vel OB1 in Vela, and a high metallicity is ascribed to it by the photometric work of Eggen (1982). We have done an abundance analysis for this long period (P = 20.4 days) and hence young (age ≈ 1.80×10⁷ yr) classical cepheid using high resolution CCD spectra with good S/N ratio. We have used a detailed model atmosphere method to derive the abundances of the light elements C, O, A1, S and of many Fe-peak elements and a few s-process elements. Our present work indicates near solar abundance for most of the elements for RZ Vel and hence we do not confirm the high metallicity derived photometrically by Eggen (1982) for this star     

Feedback between convective heating and dynamics and movements of tropical cyclones

Summary It is shown that there exists a mechanism that can cause north-northwest movement of tropical cyclones in addition to already recognised mechanisms such as steering current and beta drift. This mechanism depends on the interaction between organised convection and dynamics. In the initial stages of formation of a cyclone, it is assumed that the hydrodynamic instabilities result in an incipient disturbance that organises some convection giving rise to a heat source. The atmospheric response to a localized heat source located off the equator in the northern hemisphere produces a low level vorticity field with a maximum in the northwest sector of the original heat source. If the Ekman-CISK which depends on the low level vorticity, was the dominating mechanism for moisture convergence, the location of the heat source would move to the new location of vorticity maximum. A repetition of this process would result in a northwest movement of the heat source and hence that of the cyclone. The movement of a tropical vortex under the influence of this mechanism which depends on asymmetries created by linear dispersion of Rossby waves is first illustrated using a linear model. It is then demonstrated that this process also enhances the motion of a tropical vortex in a nonlinear model. Importance of this feedback and the resulting movements of a tropical vortex in determining the actual track of a cyclone and in bogusing an initial vortex for prediction models are illustrated.With 6 Figures     

Seminal role of stratiform clouds in large-scale aggregation of tropical rain in boreal summer monsoon intraseasonal oscillations

Climate Dynamics - Modification of the vertical structure of non-adiabatic heating by significant abundance of the stratiform rain in the tropics has been known to influence the large-scale...