Ecosystem modelling in the southern Benguela: comparisons of Atlantis,Ecopath with Ecosim,and OSMOSE under fishing scenarios

Ecosystem-based management of marine fisheries requires the use of simulation modelling to investigate the system-level impact of candidate fisheries management strategies. However, testing of fundamental assumptions such as system structure or process formulations is rarely done. In this study, we compare the output of three different ecosystem models (Atlantis, Ecopath with Ecosim, and OSMOSE) applied to the same ecosystem (the southern Benguela), to explore which ecosystem effects of fishing are most sensitive to model uncertainty. We subjected the models to two contrasting fishing pressure scenarios, applying high fishing pressure to either small pelagic fish or to adult hake. We compared the resulting model behaviour at a system level, and also at the level of model groups. We analysed the outputs in terms of various commonly used ecosystem indicators, and found some similarities in the overall behaviour of the models, despite major differences in model formulation and assumptions. Direction of change in system-level indicators was consistent for all models under the hake pressure scenario, although discrepancies emerged under the small-pelagic-fish scenario. Studying biomass response of individual model groups was key to understanding more integrated system-level metrics. All three models are based on existing knowledge of the system, and the convergence of model results increases confidence in the robustness of the model outputs. Points of divergence in the model results suggest important areas of future study. The use of feeding guilds to provide indicators for fish species at an aggregated level was explored, and proved to be an interesting alternative to aggregation by trophic level.     

The retrieval of the Asian dust depolarization ratio in Korea with the correction of the polarization-dependent transmission

The linear particle depolarization ratios were retrieved from the observation with a multiwavelength Raman lidar at the Gwangju Institute of Science and Technology (GIST), Korea (35.11°N, 126.54°E). The measurements were carried out in spring (March to May) 2011. The transmission ratio measurements were performed to solve problems of the depolarization-dependent transmission at a receiver of the lidar and applied to correct the retrieved depolarization ratio of Asian dust at first time in Korea. The analyzed data from the GIST multiwavelength Raman lidar were classified into three categories according to the linear particle depolarization ratios, which are pure Asian dust on 21 March, the intermediate case which means Asian dust mixed with urban pollution on 13 May, and haze case on 10 April. The measured transmission ratios were applied to these cases respectively. We found that the transmission ratio is needed to be used to retrieve the accurate depolarization ratio of Asian dust and also would be useful to distinguish the mixed dust particles between intermediate case and haze. The particle depolarization ratios of pure Asian dust were approximately 0.25 at 532 nm and 0.14 at 532 nm for the intermediate case. The linear particle depolarization ratios of pure Asian dust observed with the GIST multiwavelength Raman lidar were compared to the linear particle depolarization ratios of Saharan dust observed in Morocco and Asian dust observed both in Japan and China.     

Effect of rainfall characteristics on removal efficiency evaluation in vegetative filter strips

The efficiency of a facility to remove non-point source pollution is likely to fluctuate according to conditions such as facility type and rainfall events; therefore, it is required to use a proper method to estimate removal efficiency. This study was conducted to estimate the efficiency of a facility with vegetative filter strips to remove pollutants by using methods previously used for the estimation of removal efficiency and compensate for weaknesses of the known methods. Other ways were presented to estimate an efficiency by which rainfall events were classified according to meteorological condition and amount of rainfall. Rainfall of frequency and summation of load as rainfall of frequency, where the frequencies per rainfall class were considered in efficiency ratio and summation of loads, respectively, seemed to have higher removal efficiencies than those estimated with the previous methods. Although it rained at the basin site, often in small quantity (below 10 mm), the rainfall events of below 10 mm were less frequent, during the monitored rainfall events, which accordingly resulted in low removal efficiencies. However, if the frequencies per rainfall class were considered, overall removal efficiencies of VFS might be increased because the removal efficiencies of the rainfall class under 10?mm was higher than other rainfall classes. Therefore, it is desirable to take into account such factors as effects of rainfall when it comes to measuring the removal efficiency of a non-point source pollutant of a factor, because those facilities are likely to be influenced by meteorological conditions including rainfall characteristics.     

Biosorption characteristics of heavy metals (Ni2+, Zn2+, Cd2+, Pb2+) from aqueous solution by Hizikia fusiformis

Heavy metal ions (Pb²⁺, Cd²⁺, Ni²⁺, and Zn²⁺) were biosorbed by brown seaweed (Hizikia fusiformis), which was collected from Jeju Island of South Korea. The metal adsorption capacity of H. fusiformis improved significantly by washing with water or by base or acid treatments. The maximum sorption by NaOH-pretreated biomass was observed near a slightly acidic pH (pH 4?6) for Pb²⁺, Cd²⁺, Ni²⁺, and Zn²⁺. This result suggests that the treatment of H. fusiformis biomass with NaOH helped increase the functional forms of carboxylate ester units. Kinetic data showed that the biosorption occurred rapidly during the first 60 min, and most of the heavy metals were bound to the seaweed within 180 min. The maximum metal adsorption capacities assumed by a Langmuir model were on the order of Pb²⁺ > Cd²⁺ > Ni²⁺ > Zn²⁺. Equilibrium adsorption data for the heavy metal ions could fit well in the Langmuir model with regression coefficients R ² > 0.97.     

Morphological identification of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Alexandrium</Emphasis> species (Dinophyceae) from Jinhae-Masan Bay,Korea

Outbreaks of paralytic shellfish poisoning (PSP) and dense blooms caused by Alexandrium species in Jinhae-Masan Bay, Korea have been nearly annual events for many years. However, excluding some Alexandrium species responsible for PSP, there are no critical reports on the morphology of Alexandrium species in this bay. To identify the Alexandrium species based on detailed morphological features, vegetative cells collected water samples and established by the incubation of resting cysts isolated from sediment trap samples were analyzed. Four species of Alexandrium were identified: Alexandrium affine, A. fundyense, A. catenella, and A. insuetum. Morphological features of these species were basically consistent with those outlined in previous studies. However, the ventral pore and the connecting pore on the sulcal plate, which have been accepted as diagnostic characteristics for the identification of A. fundyense and A. catenella, need to be reevaluated, indicating that useful morphological features for identifying these two species should be recommended to avoid confusion in the classification of species in genus Alexandrium.     

Improving Precipitation Forecasts over the Global Tropical Belt

Summary  This study explores the nowcasting and short-range forecasting (up to 3 days) skills of rainfall over the tropics using a high resolution global model. Since the model-predicted rainfall is very sensitive to model parameters, four key model parameters were first selected. They are the Asselin filter coefficient, the fourth order horizontal diffusion coefficient, the surface moisture flux coefficient, and the vertical diffusion coefficient. The optimal values were defined as those which contributed to the best one day rainfall forecasts in the present study. In order to demonstrate and improve the precipitation forecast skill, several numerical experiments were designed using the 14-level Florida State University Global Spectral Model (FSUGSM) at a resolution of T106. Comparisons were also made of the short-range forecasts obtained from a control experiment subjected to normal mode initialization (NMI) versus experiments based on physical initialization (PI). The latter experiments were integrated using the original FSUGSM and a modified version. This modified FSUGSM was developed here by applying a reverse cumulus parameterization alorithm to the regular forecast model, which restructures the vertical humidity distribution and constrains the large-scale model’s moisture error growth during the model integration. An improved short-range rainfall prediction skill was achieved from the modified FSUGSM in this study. The results showed a better agreement between model-based and observed rainfall intensity and pattern. Received January 18, 1999     

Development of a new operational system for monitoring and forecasting coastal and open-ocean states around Japan

We developed a new system to monitor and forecast coastal and open-ocean states around Japan for operational use by the Japan Meteorological Agency. The system consists of an eddy-resolving analysis model based on four-dimensional variational assimilation and a high (2-km) resolution forecast model covering Japanese coastal areas that incorporates an initialization scheme with temporal and spatial filtering. Assimilation and forecast experiments were performed for 2008 to 2017, and the results were validated against various observation datasets. The assimilation results captured well the observed variability in sea surface temperature, coastal sea level, volume transport, and sea ice. Furthermore, the volume budget for the Japan Sea was significantly improved by the use of the 2-km resolution forecast model compared with the 10-km resolution analysis model. The forecast results indicate that this system has a predictive limit longer than 1 month in many areas, including in the Kuroshio current area south of Japan and the southern Japan Sea. In the forecast results of case studies, the 2017 Kuroshio large meander was well predicted, and warm water intrusions accompanying Kuroshio path variations south of Japan were also successfully reproduced. Sea ice forecasts for the Sea of Okhotsk largely captured the evolution of sea ice in late winter, but sea ice in early winter included relatively large errors. This system has high potential to meet operational requirements for monitoring and forecasting ocean phenomena at both meso- and coastal scales.

     

Assessing spatially dependent errors in radar rainfall estimates for rainfall-runoff simulation

Weather radar been widely employed to measure precipitation and to predict flood risks. However, it is still not considered accurate enough because of radar errors. Most previous studies have focused primarily on removing errors from the radar data. Therefore, in the current study, we examined the effects of radar rainfall errors on rainfall-runoff simulation using the spatial error model (SEM). SEM was used to synthetically generate random or cross-correlated errors. A number of events were generated to investigate the effect of spatially dependent errors in radar rainfall estimates on runoff simulation. For runoff simulation, the Nam River basin in South Korea was used with the distributed rainfall-runoff model, Vflo?. The results indicated that spatially dependent errors caused much higher variations in peak discharge than independent random errors. To further investigate the effect of the magnitude of cross-correlation among radar errors, different magnitudes of spatial cross-correlations were employed during the rainfall-runoff simulation. The results demonstrated that a stronger correlation led to a higher variation in peak discharge up to the observed correlation structure while a correlation stronger than the observed case resulted in lower variability in peak discharge. We concluded that the error structure in radar rainfall estimates significantly affects predictions of the runoff peak. Therefore, efforts to not only remove the radar rainfall errors, but to also weaken the cross-correlation structure of the errors need to be taken to forecast flood events accurately.     

Evaluating the performance of climate models in reproducing the hydrological characteristics of rainfall events

ABSTRACT

Rainfall events largely control hydrological processes occurring on and in the ground, but the performance of climate models in reproducing rainfall events has not been investigated enough to guide selection among the models when making hydrological projections. We proposed to compare the durations, intensities, and pause periods, as well as depths of rainfall events when assessing the accuracy of general circulation models (GCMs) in reproducing the hydrological characteristics of observed rainfall. We also compared the sizes of design storm events and the frequency and severity of drought to demonstrate the consequences of GCM selection. The results show that rainfall and extreme hydrological event projections could significantly vary depending on climate model selection and weather stations, suggesting the need for a careful and comprehensive evaluation of GCM in the hydrological analysis of climate change. The proposed methods are expected to help to improve the accuracy of future hydrological projections for water resources planning.