Modeling the risk of spread and establishment for Asian longhorned beetle (Anoplophora glabripennis) in Massachusetts from 2008-2009

Land managers responsible for invasive species removal in the USA require tools to prevent the Asian longhorned beetle (Anoplophora glabripennis) (ALB) from decimating the maple-dominant hardwood forests of Massachusetts and New England. Species distribution models (SDMs) and spread models have been applied individually to predict the invasion distribution and rate of spread, but the combination of both models can increase the accuracy of predictions of species spread over time when habitat suitability is heterogeneous across landscapes. First, a SDM was fit to 2008 ALB presence-only locations. Then, a stratified spread model was generated to measure the probability of spread due to natural and human causes. Finally, the SDM and spread models were combined to evaluate the risk of ALB spread in Central Massachusetts in 2008–2009. The SDM predicted many urban locations in Central Massachusetts as having suitable environments for species establishment. The combined model shows the greatest risk of spread and establishment in suitable locations immediately surrounding the epicentre of the ALB outbreak in Northern Worcester with lower risk areas in suitable locations only accessible through long-range dispersal from access to human transportation networks. The risk map achieved an accuracy of 67% using 2009 ALB locations for model validation. This model framework can effectively provide risk managers with valuable information concerning the timing and spatial extent of spread/establishment risk of ALB and potential strategies needed for effective future risk management efforts.     

<Emphasis Type="Italic">Deepwater Horizon</Emphasis> Oil Spill Impacts on Salt Marsh Fiddler Crabs (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Uca</Emphasis> spp.)

The Deepwater Horizon oil spill was the largest marine oil spill in US waters to date and one of the largest worldwide. Impacts of this spill on salt marsh vegetation have been well documented, although impacts on marsh macroinvertebrates have received less attention. To examine impacts of the oil spill on an important marsh invertebrate and ecosystem engineer, we conducted a meta-analysis on fiddler crabs (Uca spp.) using published sources and newly available Natural Resources Damage Assessment (NRDA) and Gulf of Mexico Research Initiative (GoMRI) data. Fiddler crabs influence marsh ecosystem structure and function through their burrowing and feeding activities and are key prey for a number of marsh and estuarine predators. We tested the hypothesis that the spill affected fiddler crab burrow density (crab abundance), burrow diameter (crab size), and crab species composition. Averaged across multiple studies, sites, and years, our synthesis revealed a negative effect of oiling on all three metrics. Burrow densities were reduced by 39 % in oiled sites, with impacts and incomplete recovery observed over 2010–2014. Burrow diameters were reduced from 2010 to 2011, but appeared to have recovered by 2012. Fiddler crab species composition was altered through at least 2013 and only returned to reference conditions where marsh vegetation recovered, via restoration planting in one case. Given the spatial and temporal extent of data analyzed, this synthesis provides compelling evidence that the Deepwater Horizon spill suppressed populations of fiddler crabs in oiled marshes, likely affecting other ecosystem attributes, including marsh productivity, marsh soil characteristics, and associated predators.     

Exploring seven hundred years of transhumance,climate dynamic,fire and human activity through a historical mountain pass in central Spain

A high-altitude peat sequence from the heart of the Spanish Central System (Gredos range) was analysed through a multi-proxy approach to determine the sensitivity of high-mountain habitats to climate, fire and land use changes during the last seven hundred years, providing valuable insight into our understanding of the vegetation history and environmental changes in a mountain pass close to a traditional route of transhumance. The pollen data indicate that the vegetation was dominated by shrublands and grasslands with scattered pines in high-mountain areas, while in the valleys cereals, chestnut and olive trees were cultivated. Strong declines of high-mountain pines percentages are recorded at 1540, 1675, 1765, 1835 and 1925 cal AD, which may be related to increasing grazing activities and/or the occurrence of anthropogenic fires. The practice of mountain summer farming and transhumance deeply changed and redesigned the landscape of the high altitudes in central Spain (Gredos range) since the Middle Ages, although its dynamics was influenced in some way by climate variability of the past seven centuries.     

Variable complexity of the US Continental Divide trace

Abstract

Map-view complexity of 65 contiguous segments of the conterminous US Continental Divide trace was evaluated by the divider method, with each segment’s geometry approximated by a fractal dimension (D) value, or two D values applying to fine and coarse scales of inspection. Results support a generalization that D values in the range 1.05–1.12 are typical for drainage divides viewed at regional to national scales. However about 20% of cases reviewed in this study are smoother (D = 1.01–1.04) or more complex (D = 1.13–1.18) traces. Complexities of these watershed boundary segments show no significant correlation with physiographic province or local relief. The primary influence of bedrock lithology and surface process is seen in zones of Quaternary volcanism, where uncommonly smooth and highly complex divide trace segments are more the rule than exception. Uncommonly smooth divide traces are also found descending mountain pediments in areas of parallel drainage, and some of the most tortuous traces are associated with drainage patterns disrupted by non-fluvial processes. Divide trace segments crossing terrain with uniform lithology show decreased complexity, but traces with the broadest range of complexity, including highest D values, occur in areas with moderate, not extreme, degrees of bedrock diversity.     

Evaluating Tidal Wetland Restoration Performance Using National Estuarine Research Reserve System Reference Sites and the Restoration Performance Index (RPI)

Evaluations of tidal wetland restoration efforts suffer from a lack of appropriate reference sites and standardized methods among projects. To help address these issues, the National Estuarine Research Reserve System (NERRS) and the NOAA Restoration Center engaged in a partnership to monitor ecological responses and evaluate 17 tidal wetland restoration projects associated with five reserves. The goals of this study were to (1) determine the level of restoration achieved at each project using the restoration performance index (RPI), which compares change in parameters over time between reference and restoration sites, (2) compare hydrologic and excavation restoration projects using the RPI, (3) identify key indicator parameters for assessing restoration effectiveness, and (4) evaluate the value of the NERRS as reference sites for local restoration projects. We found that the RPI, modified for this study, was an effective tool for evaluating relative differences in restoration performance; most projects achieved an intermediate level of restoration from 2008 to 2010, and two sites became very similar to their paired reference sites, indicating that the restoration efforts were highly effective. There were no differences in RPI scores between hydrologic and excavation restoration project types. Two abiotic parameters (marsh platform elevation and groundwater level) were significantly correlated with vegetation community structure and thus can potentially influence restoration performance. Our results highlight the value of the NERRS as reference sites for assessing tidal wetland restoration projects and provide improved guidance for scientists and restoration practitioners by highlighting the RPI as a trajectory analysis tool and identifying key monitoring parameters.     

A non-hydrostatic model for the numerical study of landslide-generated waves

This paper proposes and demonstrates a two-layer depth-averaged model with non-hydrostatic pressure correction to simulate landslide-generated waves. Landslide (lower layer) and water (upper layer) motions are governed by the general shallow water equations derived from mass and momentum conservation laws. The landslide motion and wave generation/propagation are separately formulated, but they form a coupled system. Our model combines some features of the landslide analysis model DAN3D and the tsunami analysis model COMCOT and adds a non-hydrostatic pressure correction. We use the new model to simulate a 2007 rock avalanche-generated wave event at Chehalis Lake, British Columbia, Canada. The model results match both the observed distribution of the rock avalanche deposit in the lake and the wave run-up trimline along the shoreline. Sensitivity analyses demonstrate the importance of accounting for the non-hydrostatic dynamic pressure at the landslide-water interface, as well as the influence of the internal strength of the landslide on the size of the generated waves. Finally, we compare the numerical results of landslide-generated waves simulated with frictional and Voellmy rheologies. Similar maximum wave run-ups can be obtained using the two different rheologies, but the frictional model better reproduces the known limit of the rock avalanche deposit and is thus considered to yield the best overall results in this particular case.     

Use of photo-based 3D photogrammetry in analysing the results of laboratory pressure grouting tests

This paper presents a non-destructive, low-cost, photo-based, 3D reconstruction technique for characterizing geo-materials with irregular shapes of a relatively large size. After being validated against two traditional volume measurement methods, namely the vernier caliper method and the fluid displacement method for regular and irregular shapes, respectively, 3D photogrammetry was used to analyse the grout bulbs formed in laboratory pressure grouting tests. The reconstructed 3D mesh model of the sample provides accurate and detailed 3D vertex data, which allowed the volume, densification efficiency and bleeding behaviour of the grout bulbs to be analysed. Comparing the bulb section views at different grouting pressures also offers an intuitive observation of the grout development and propagation process. Moreover, the 3D vertex data and surface area included in the model are of great importance in validating numerical predictions of the pressure grouting process and analysing the interface shear resistance of grouted soil nails or anchors. Compared to existing approaches, the new 3D photogrammetry method possesses several key advantages: (a) it does not require expensive, specialized equipment; (b) samples are not destroyed or modified during testing; (c) it allows to reconstruct objects of various scales and (d) the software is public domain. Therefore, the adoption of this 3D photogrammetry method will facilitate research in the pressure grouting process and can be extended to other problems in geotechnical engineering.     

Do sedentary behavior and physical activity spatially cluster? Analysis of a population-based sample of Boston adolescents

Sedentary behavior and lack of physical activity are key modifiable behavioral risk factors for chronic health problems, such as obesity and diabetes. Little is known about how sedentary behavior and physical activity among adolescents spatially cluster. The objective was to detect spatial clustering of sedentary behavior and physical activity among Boston adolescents. Data were used from the 2008 Boston Youth Survey Geospatial Dataset, a sample of public high school students who responded to a sedentary behavior and physical activity questionnaire. Four binary variables were created: (1) TV watching (>2 h/day), (2) video games (>2 h/day), (3) total screen time (>2 h/day); and (4) 20 min/day of physical activity (≥5 days/week). A spatial scan statistic was utilized to detect clustering of sedentary behavior and physical activity. One statistically significant cluster of TV watching emerged among Boston adolescents in the unadjusted model. Students inside the cluster were more than twice as likely to report >2 h/day of TV watching compared to respondents outside the cluster. No significant clusters of sedentary behavior and physical activity emerged. Findings suggest that TV watching is spatially clustered among Boston adolescents. Such findings may serve to inform public health policy-makers by identifying specific locations in Boston that could provide opportunities for policy intervention. Future research should examine what is linked to the clusters, such as neighborhood environments and network effects.     

A GIS based planning support system for assessing financial feasibility of urban redevelopment

Urban densification trends combined with redevelopment increasingly moving away from large former industrial and transport sites toward existing town centres and corridors indicate redevelopment is becoming increasingly complex, difficult to plan for and undertake. The interplay between land and property markets and planning frameworks suggest city planners and urban researchers need new tools and methodologies to gain insights into ways to deliver effective responses. Despite the need, there is a limited availability of comprehensive models to fulfil the task. This paper describes a GIS-based tool to assess parcel-level financial feasibility and housing supply associated with urban redevelopment within a precinct. The tool incorporates existing and potential built form and parameters associated with the planning framework and land and property markets. Using a real case study in a workshop, tool performance was evaluated by professional urban planners in terms of its capacity to produce metrics and visualisations of potential scenarios of redevelopment. Results indicate the usefulness of the tool for emulating land market conditions and testing scenarios of planning regulation and market changes for strategic planning purposes.     

SensePlace3: a geovisual framework to analyze place–time–attribute information in social media

SensePlace3 (SP3) is a geovisual analytics framework and web application that supports overview + detail analysis of social media, focusing on extracting meaningful information from the Twitterverse. SP3 leverages social media related to crisis events. It differs from most existing systems by enabling an analyst to obtain place-relevant information from tweets that have implicit as well as explicit geography. Specifically, SP3 includes not just the ability to utilize the explicit geography of geolocated tweets but also analyze implicit geography by recognizing and geolocating references in both tweet text, which indicates locations tweeted about, and in Twitter profiles, which indicates locations affiliated with users. Key features of SP3 reported here include flexible search and filtering capabilities to support information foraging; an ingest, processing, and indexing pipeline that produces near real-time access for big streaming data; and a novel strategy for implementing a web-based multi-view visual interface with dynamic linking of entities across views. The SP3 system architecture was designed to support crisis management applications, but its design flexibility makes it easily adaptable to other domains. We also report on a user study that provided input to SP3 interface design and suggests next steps for effective spatiotemporal analytics using social media sources.