A GIS based planning support system for assessing financial feasibility of urban redevelopment

Urban densification trends combined with redevelopment increasingly moving away from large former industrial and transport sites toward existing town centres and corridors indicate redevelopment is becoming increasingly complex, difficult to plan for and undertake. The interplay between land and property markets and planning frameworks suggest city planners and urban researchers need new tools and methodologies to gain insights into ways to deliver effective responses. Despite the need, there is a limited availability of comprehensive models to fulfil the task. This paper describes a GIS-based tool to assess parcel-level financial feasibility and housing supply associated with urban redevelopment within a precinct. The tool incorporates existing and potential built form and parameters associated with the planning framework and land and property markets. Using a real case study in a workshop, tool performance was evaluated by professional urban planners in terms of its capacity to produce metrics and visualisations of potential scenarios of redevelopment. Results indicate the usefulness of the tool for emulating land market conditions and testing scenarios of planning regulation and market changes for strategic planning purposes.     

SensePlace3: a geovisual framework to analyze place–time–attribute information in social media

SensePlace3 (SP3) is a geovisual analytics framework and web application that supports overview + detail analysis of social media, focusing on extracting meaningful information from the Twitterverse. SP3 leverages social media related to crisis events. It differs from most existing systems by enabling an analyst to obtain place-relevant information from tweets that have implicit as well as explicit geography. Specifically, SP3 includes not just the ability to utilize the explicit geography of geolocated tweets but also analyze implicit geography by recognizing and geolocating references in both tweet text, which indicates locations tweeted about, and in Twitter profiles, which indicates locations affiliated with users. Key features of SP3 reported here include flexible search and filtering capabilities to support information foraging; an ingest, processing, and indexing pipeline that produces near real-time access for big streaming data; and a novel strategy for implementing a web-based multi-view visual interface with dynamic linking of entities across views. The SP3 system architecture was designed to support crisis management applications, but its design flexibility makes it easily adaptable to other domains. We also report on a user study that provided input to SP3 interface design and suggests next steps for effective spatiotemporal analytics using social media sources.     

The role of hydrothermal fluids in sedimentation in saline alkaline lakes: Evidence from Nasikie Engida,Kenya Rift Valley

Saline alkaline lakes that precipitate sodium carbonate evaporites are most common in volcanic terrains in semi‐arid environments. Processes that lead to trona precipitation are poorly understood compared to those in sulphate‐dominated and chloride‐dominated lake brines. Nasikie Engida (Little Magadi) in the southern Kenya Rift shows the initial stages of soda evaporite formation. This small shallow (<2 m deep; 7 km long) lake is recharged by alkaline hot springs and seasonal runoff but unlike neighbouring Lake Magadi is perennial. This study aims to understand modern sedimentary and geochemical processes in Nasikie Engida and to assess the importance of geothermal fluids in evaporite formation. Perennial hot‐spring inflow waters along the northern shoreline evaporate and become saturated with respect to nahcolite and trona, which precipitate in the southern part of the lake, up to 6 km from the hot springs. Nahcolite (NaHCO₃) forms bladed crystals that nucleate on the lake floor. Trona (Na₂CO₃·NaHCO₃·2H₂O) precipitates from more concentrated brines as rafts and as bottom‐nucleated shrubs of acicular crystals that coalesce laterally to form bedded trona. Many processes modify the fluid composition as it evolves. Silica is removed as gels and by early diagenetic reactions and diatoms. Sulphate is depleted by bacterial reduction. Potassium and chloride, of moderate concentration, remain conservative in the brine. Clastic sedimentation is relatively minor because of the predominant hydrothermal inflow. Nahcolite precipitates when and where pCO₂ is high, notably near sublacustrine spring discharge. Results from Nasikie Engida show that hot spring discharge has maintained the lake for at least 2 kyr, and that the evaporite formation is strongly influenced by local discharge of carbon dioxide. Brine evolution and evaporite deposition at Nasikie Engida help to explain conditions under which ancient sodium carbonate evaporites formed, including those in other East African rift basins, the Eocene Green River Formation (western USA), and elsewhere.     

Targeting carbon dioxide removal in the European Union

In principle, many climate policymakers have accepted that large-scale carbon dioxide removal (CDR) is necessary to meet the Paris Agreement’s mitigation targets, but they have avoided proposing by whom CDR might be delivered. Given its role in international climate policy, the European Union (EU) might be expected to lead the way. But among EU climate policymakers so far there is little talk on CDR, let alone action. Here we assess how best to ‘target’ CDR to motivate EU policymakers exploring which CDR target strategy may work best to start dealing with CDR on a meaningful scale. A comprehensive CDR approach would focus on delivering the CDR volumes required from the EU by 2100, approximately at least 50 Gigatonnes (Gt) CO₂, according to global model simulations aiming to keep warming below 2°C. A limited CDR approach would focus on an intermediate target to deliver the CDR needed to reach ‘net zero emissions’ (i.e. the gross negative emissions needed to offset residual positive emissions that are too expensive or even impossible to mitigate). We argue that a comprehensive CDR approach may be too intimidating for EU policymakers. A limited CDR approach that only addresses the necessary steps to reach the (intermediate) target of ‘net zero emissions’ is arguably more achievable, since it is a better match to the existing policy paradigm and would allow for a pragmatic phase-in of CDR while avoiding outright resistance by environmental NGOs and the broader public.

Key policy insights

• Making CDR an integral part of EU climate policy has the potential to significantly reshape the policy landscape.

• Burden sharing considerations would probably play a major role, with comprehensive CDR prolonging the disparity and tensions between progressives and laggards.

• Introducing limited CDR in the context of ‘net zero’ pathways would retain a visible primary focus on decarbonization but acknowledge the need for a significant enhancement of removals via ‘natural’ and/or ‘engineered’ sinks.

• A decarbonization approach that intends to lead to a low level of ‘residual emissions’ (to be tackled by a pragmatic phase-in of CDR) should be the priority of EU climate policy.

     

High‐ to ultrahigh‐temperature metamorphism in the lower crust: An example resulting from Hikurangi Plateau collision and slab rollback in New Zealand

Lower crustal xenoliths erupted from an intraplate diatreme reveal that a portion of the New Zealand Gondwana margin experienced high‐temperature (HT) to ultrahigh‐temperature (UHT) granulite facies metamorphism just after flat slab subduction ceased at c. 110–105 Ma. P–T calculations for garnet–orthopyroxene‐bearing felsic granulite xenoliths indicate equilibration at ~815 to 910°C and 0.7 to 0.8 GPa, with garnet‐bearing mafic granulite xenoliths yielding at least 900°C. Supporting evidence for the attainment of HT and UHT conditions in felsic granulite comes from re‐integration of exsolution in feldspar (~900–950°C at 0.8 GPa), Ti‐in‐zircon thermometry on Y‐depleted overgrowths on detrital zircon grains (932°C ± 24°C at aTiO₂ = 0.8 ± 0.2), and correlation of observed assemblages and mineral compositions with thermodynamic modelling results (≥850°C at 0.7 to 0.8 GPa). The thin zircon overgrowths, which were mainly targeted by drilling through the cores of grains, yield a U–Pb pooled age of 91.7 ± 2.0 Ma. The cause of Late Cretaceous HT‐UHT metamorphism on the Zealandia Gondwana margin is attributed to collision and partial subduction of the buoyant oceanic Hikurangi Plateau in the Early Cretaceous. The halt of subduction caused the fore‐running shallowly dipping slab to rollback towards the trench position and permitted the upper mantle to rapidly increase the geothermal gradient through the base of the extending (former) accretionary prism. This sequence of events provides a mechanism for achieving regional HT–UHT conditions in the lower crust with little or no sign of this event at the surface.     

On the interannual variability of arctic sea‐level pressure and sea ice

Abstract

Monthly mean sea‐level pressure (SLP) data from the Northern Hemisphere for the period January 1952‐December 1987 are analysed. Fluctuations in this field over the Arctic on interannual time‐scales and their statistical association with fluctuations farther south are determined. The standard deviation of the interannual variability is largest compared with that of the annual cycle along the seaboards of the major land masses. The SLP anomalies are generally in phase over the entire Arctic Basin and extend south over the northern Russia and Canada, but tend to be out of phase with fluctuations at mid‐latitudes. The anomalies are most closely associated with fluctuations over the North Atlantic and Europe except near the Chukchi Sea to the north of Bering Strait. The associations with the North Pacific fluctuations become increasingly more prominent at most Arctic sites (e.g. the Canadian Arctic Archipelago) as the time‐scale increases.

Associations between the SLP fluctuations and atmospheric indices that represent processes affecting sea‐ice drift (wind stress and wind stress curl) are determined. In every case local associations dominate, but some remote ones are also evident. For example, changes in the magnitude of the wind stress curl over the Beaufort Sea are increased if the atmospheric circulation over the North Pacific is intensified; wind stress over the region where sea ice is exchanged between the Beaufort Gyre and the Transpolar Drift Stream is modulated by both the Southern and North Atlantic Oscillations.

Severe sea‐ice conditions in the Greenland Sea (as measured by the Koch Ice Index) coincide with a weakened atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic.     

Changing trust relations within the Dutch fishing industry: The case of National Study Groups

This paper focuses on changing trust relationships among fishermen following new governance arrangements. The previous ‘thick’ trust relationships that characterized the Dutch fisheries industry under a neo-corporatist arrangement had resulted in an isolation of local fishermen groups vis-à-vis outsiders. However, under new governance arrangements, in particular the so-called Study Groups, these trust relationships are changing. The establishment of Study Groups, where fishermen from different localities have to cooperate on sustainability innovations in order to receive subsidies, lead to more diversity within the industry, more collaborations across localities and new forms of ‘thin’ trust. As such, these Study Groups can be understood as successful experiments in further opening up of the fisheries community.     

Salinity stratification in a river-dominated estuary

Analysis of salinity data from Mobile Bay indicates that stratification-destratification events within this broad, shallow estuary are not uncommon. These events are related to the strength of the winds, through their influence on wave generation and subsequent bottom drag coefficient increases, and to the strength of river discharge. They do not appear to be due to the strength of tidal currents, as has been observed elsewhere. Furthermore, river flow appears to be the dominant control, the winds being important only in the absence of large freshwater discharges. The annual spring freshet can flush most of the salt from the bay. During other times of the year the relative strengths of river discharge and wind stress change the bay from highly stratified to nearly homogeneous and back on a variety of time scales ranging from daily to seasonal.     

Fractal analysis of long-range paleoclimatic data: Oxygen isotope record of pacific core V28-239

R/S analysis of the oxygen isotope curve of Pacific core V28-239 yields a fractal dimension of 1.22. This value is considered to characterize global climatic change over the last 2 million years as expressed by changing O¹⁸ ratios and confirms that climatic variations are characterized by long-term persistence. The fractal dimension of 1.22 compares favorably with the approximate fractal dimension of 1.26 for annual precipitation records for nine major cities in the United States. Although the precipitation and oxygen isotope data are measured in different physical units and recorded at different time scales, fractal analysis allows for a mathematical comparison of the two phenomena. Additionally, since the fractal dimensions of the oxygen isotope and precipitation records are similar, it is implied that such fractal dimensions are characteristic of climate change over the spectral range of 10 to 10⁶ years. Given this temperature curves based on fractal parameters of long-term O¹⁸ data could be constructed which would allow examination of characteristics of temperature variation over tens and hundreds of years. Such studies may allow the establishment of limits on natural temperature variation and document the persistence of temperature trends through time. If these trends and limits can be resolved, long-range climatic prediction is feasible.     

A review of numerical experiments on seismic wave scattering

This paper reviews applications of the finite-difference and finite-element methods to the study of seismic wave scattering in both simple and complex velocity models. These numerical simulations have improved our understanding of seismic scattering in portions of the earth where there is significant lateral heterogeneity, such as the crust. The methods propagate complete seismic wavefields through highly complex media and include multiply scattered waves and converted phases (e.g.,P toSV, SV toP, body wave to surface wave). The numerical methods have been especially useful in cases of moderate and strong scattering in complex media where multiple scattering becomes important. Progress has been made with numerical methods in understanding how near-surface, low-velocity basin structures scatter surface waves and vertically-incident body waves. The numerical methods have proven useful in evaluating scattering of surface waves and body waves from topography of both the free surface and interfaces buried at depth. Numerical studies have demonstrated the importance of conversions from body waves to surface waves (andvice versa) when lateral heterogeneities and topographic relief are present in the uppermost crust. Recently, several investigations have applied numerical methods to study seismic wave propagation in velocity models which vary randomly in space. This stochastic approach seeks to understand the effects of small-scale complexity in the earth which cannot be resolved deterministically. These experiments have quantified the relationships between the statistical properties of the random heterogeneity and the measurable properties of high-frequency (1 Hz) seismograms. These simulations have been applied to the study of many features observed in actual high-frequency seismic waves, including: the amplitude and time decay of seismic coda, the apparent attenuation from scattering, the dispersion of waveforms, and the travel time and waveform variations across arrays of receivers.