A Bayesian method for missing rainfall estimation using a conceptual rainfall–runoff model

The estimation of missing rainfall data is an important problem for data analysis and modelling studies in hydrology. This paper develops a Bayesian method to address missing rainfall estimation from runoff measurements based on a pre-calibrated conceptual rainfall–runoff model. The Bayesian method assigns posterior probability of rainfall estimates proportional to the likelihood function of measured runoff flows and prior rainfall information, which is presented by uniform distributions in the absence of rainfall data. The likelihood function of measured runoff can be determined via the test of different residual error models in the calibration phase. The application of this method to a French urban catchment indicates that the proposed Bayesian method is able to assess missing rainfall and its uncertainty based only on runoff measurements, which provides an alternative to the reverse model for missing rainfall estimates.     

Augmented reality and photogrammetry: A synergy to visualize physical and virtual city environments

Close-range photogrammetry is based on the acquisition of imagery to make accurate measurements and, eventually, three-dimensional (3D) photo-realistic models. These models are a photogrammetric product per se. They are usually integrated into virtual reality scenarios where additional data such as sound, text or video can be introduced, leading to multimedia virtual environments. These environments allow users both to navigate and interact on different platforms such as desktop PCs, laptops and small hand-held devices (mobile phones or PDAs). In very recent years, a new technology derived from virtual reality has emerged: Augmented Reality (AR), which is based on mixing real and virtual environments to boost human interactions and real-life navigations. The synergy of AR and photogrammetry opens up new possibilities in the field of 3D data visualization, navigation and interaction far beyond the traditional static navigation and interaction in front of a computer screen.In this paper we introduce a low-cost outdoor mobile AR application to integrate buildings of different urban spaces. High-accuracy 3D photo-models derived from close-range photogrammetry are integrated in real (physical) urban worlds. The augmented environment that is presented herein requires for visualization a see-through video head mounted display (HMD), whereas user’s movement navigation is achieved in the real world with the help of an inertial navigation sensor. After introducing the basics of AR technology, the paper will deal with real-time orientation and tracking in combined physical and virtual city environments, merging close-range photogrammetry and AR. There are, however, some software and complex issues, which are discussed in the paper.     

End member and Bayesian mixing models consistently indicate near-surface flowpath dominance in a pristine humid tropical rainforest

The impacts of forest conversion on runoff generation in the tropics have received much interest, but scientific progress is still hampered by challenging fieldwork conditions and limited knowledge about runoff mechanisms. Here, we assessed the runoff generation, flow paths and water source dynamics of a pristine rainforest catchment in Costa Rica using end member mixing analysis (EMMA) and a Bayesian mixing model (MixSIAR). Geochemical tracer data collected over a 4-week field campaign were combined with tritium data used to assess potential deeper groundwater flow pathways to the perennial stream. The streamflow composition was best captured using three end-members, namely throughfall, shallow (5–15 cm) and deeper (15–50 cm) soil water. We estimated the end-member contributions to the main stream and two tributaries using the two mixing approaches and found good agreement between results obtained from EMMA and MixSIAR. The system was overwhelmingly dominated by near-surface sources, with little evidence for deeper and older groundwater as tritium-derived baseflow mean transit time was between 2.0 and 4.4 years. The shallow soil flow pathway dominated streamflow contributions in the main stream (median 39% and 49% based on EMMA and MixSIAR, respectively), followed by the deeper soil (32% and 31%) and throughfall (25% and 19%). The two tributaries had even greater shallow soil water contributions relative to the main stream (83% and 74% for tributary A and 42% and 63% for tributary B). Tributary B had no detectable deep soil water contribution, reflecting the morphology of the hillslope (steeper slopes, shallower soils and lower vegetation density compared to hillslope A). Despite the short sampling campaign and associated uncertainties, this study allowed to thoroughly assess runoff generation mechanisms in a humid tropical catchment. Our results also provide a first comparison of two increasingly used mixing models and suggest that EMMA and MixSIAR yield comparable estimates of water source partitioning in this tropical, volcanic rainforest environment.     

Relationship between hydrogeological parameters for data-scarce regions: the case of the Araripe sedimentary basin, Brazil

This paper applies and validates a method for generating spatially distributed hydraulic conductivity (k) based on the specific capacity (Q _s) for data-scarce regions. This method has been applied to the Araripe sedimentary basin, Brazil, and consists of four steps: (1) selection of (32) wells for which both k and Q _s data are available; (2) estimation of k as a function of Q _s for the (128) wells for which only specific capacity data are available; (3) spatial distribution of k using the kriging geostatistical tool; (4) validation of the method, using (17) representative wells with k measured data. The equation relating k and Q _s showed a statistically significant linear relationship (R = 0.93), from which a database has been generated using kriging with the spherical model. The results showed a calibration coefficient of Nash and Sutcliffe (NS) of 0.54 and moderate spatial dependence ratio of 69 %. The validation process provided only a moderate efficiency (NS = 0.22), possibly due to the geological complexity of the focus system. Despite its limitations, the method indicates the possibility of application of ordinary kriging to generate reliable data from auxiliary variables, especially for the water management of data-scarce areas.     

New dates and palaeoenvironmental evidence for the Middle to Upper Palaeolithic occupation of Higueral de Valleja Cave,southern Spain

A research programme has been set up at Higueral de Valleja Cave in southern Spain to investigate the late survival and eventual extinction of the southern Iberian Neanderthals and the arrival of modern humans. Of key interest in the first phase of research was to understand the depositional environment in the entrance chamber of the cave and to establish whether palaeoenvironmental and dating samples could be retrieved from the Middle and Upper Palaeolithic sequences. The outcome is a series of OSL, TL and radiocarbon dates showing that the cave was occupied by Neanderthal populations in Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 3, if not earlier, and by modern human Solutrean populations during the last glacial maximum. Cave sediments provisionally indicate that the lower Middle Palaeolithic sequence (X–VIII) formed in warm and humid environments and the upper sequence (VIII–V) formed when the climate was cooler and drier. The presence of long grass phytoliths and of the small mammals Microtus duodecimcostatus, Microtus brecciensis and Apodemus sylvaticus in the upper sequence indicates that a range of habitat types persisted near the cave including grassland, scrubby vegetation, patchy tree cover and ponds. This raises the possibility that environmental factors were key factors in the late survival of Neanderthal populations at the cave.     

Can Jupiters be found by monitoring Galactic bulge microlensing events from northern sites?

In 1998 the EXPORT team monitored microlensing event light curves using a charge-coupled device (CCD) camera on the IAC 0.8-m telescope on Tenerife to evaluate the prospect of using northern telescopes to find microlens anomalies that reveal planets orbiting the lens stars. The high airmass and more limited time available for observations of Galactic bulge sources make a northern site less favourable for microlensing planet searches. However, there are potentially a large number of northern 1-m class telescopes that could devote a few hours per night to monitor ongoing microlensing events. Our IAC observations indicate that accuracies sufficient to detect planets can be achieved despite the higher airmass.     

The impact of a merger episode in the galactic disc white dwarf population

In this paper we analyse the consequences in the white dwarf population of a hypothetical merger episode in our Galactic disc. We have studied several different merging scenarios with our Monte Carlo simulator. For each one of these scenarios we have derived the main characteristics of the resulting white dwarf population and we have compared them with the available observational data, namely the white dwarf luminosity function and the kinematic properties of the white dwarf population. Our results indicate that very recent (less than ∼6 Gyr ago) and massive (∼16 per cent of the mass of our Galaxy) merger episodes are quite unlikely in view of the available kinematical properties of the disc white dwarf population. Smaller merger episodes (of the order of ∼4 per cent of the mass of our Galaxy) are, however, compatible with our current knowledge of those kinematical properties. Finally, we prove that the white dwarf luminosity function is quite insensitive to such a merger episode.     

The Kwakshua Watersheds Observatory,central coast of British Columbia,Canada

The Kwakshua Watersheds Observatory (KWO) is an integrative watersheds observatory on the coastal margin of a rain-dominated bog-forest landscape in British Columbia (BC), Canada. Established in 2013, the goal of the KWO is to understand and model the flux of terrestrial materials from land to sea – the origins, pathways, processes and ecosystem consequences – in the context of long-term environmental change. The KWO consists of seven gauged watersheds and a network of observation sites spanning from land to sea and along drainage gradients within catchments. Time-series datasets include year-round measurements of weather, soil hydrology, streamflow, aquatic biogeochemistry, microbial ecology and nearshore oceanographic conditions. Sensor measurements are recorded every 5 min and water samples are collected approximately monthly. Additional observations are made during high-flow conditions. We used remote sensing to map watershed terrain, drainage networks, soils and terrestrial ecosystems. The watersheds range in size from 3.2 to 12.8 km², with varying catchment characteristics that influence hydrological and biogeochemical responses. Despite local variation, the overall study area is a global hotspot for yields of dissolved organic carbon, dissolved organic nitrogen and dissolved iron at the coastal margin. This observatory helps fill an important gap in the global network of observatories, in terms of spatial location (central coast of BC), climate (temperate oceanic), hydrology (very high runoff, pluvial regime), geology (igneous intrusive, glacially scoured), vegetation (bog rainforest) and soils (large stores of organic carbon).     

Relationship between tilt changes and effusive-explosive episodes at an andesitic volcano: the 2004–2005 eruption at Volcán de Colima,México

Continuous tilt changes during the 2004–2005 effusive-explosive episodes at Volcán de Colima (México) were recorded simultaneously by two tiltmeters installed on opposite sides of the volcano at elevations of 2200 m and 3060 m above sea level. Data indicate that the 2004 lava extrusion was preceded by an inflation accompanied by a deflation. The 2005 explosion sequences were associated with a deflationary–inflationary tilt. The period between the 2004 extrusion and the 2005 explosions was characterized by an inflationary tilt during a 3 month period. Two deformation sources were located. The first was situated at a depth between 300 m and 1800 m beneath the crater at the northern flank of the volcano and was responsible for volcano deformation during the preliminary September 2004 stage, the October 2004 extrusion, and the initial stage of the transition period and the March 2005 explosion sequence. The second source was located at a depth between 1800 m and 2800 m beneath the crater at the southern flank of the volcano and was responsible for volcano deformation during the final stage of the transition period and the May–June 2005 explosion sequence.