Rock mass characterization for the underground cavern design of Khiritharn pumped storage scheme

A general approach to rock engineering designing aspects adopted at the Khiritharn Pumped Storage Scheme is described. The scheme involves excavation of three large caverns and tunnels in jointed sandstone within a suture zone in Southeast Thailand. Geological condition and engineering properties of the sandstone were investigated. Strength and modulus properties of the intact rock were determined from laboratory tests and properties of rock mass were empirically estimated for the design analysis in the de.nite study stage on the basis of three rock mass classi.cation systems namely the Rock Mass Rating (RMR), Geological Strength Index (GSI) and a Japanese system (EPDC). While the GSI gives strength and modulus of deformation values slightly higher than the RMR classi.cation, the EPDC gives a lower value of modulus of deformation but comparable rock mass strength value for the level of con.ning pressures at the depth of the cavern excavation. The results of stress analysis and loosening wedge analysis for the cavern excavations suggest favorable excavation condition.     

Comparative study of multilayer perceptron-stochastic gradient descent and gradient boosted trees for predicting daily suspended sediment load: The case study of the Mississippi River,U.S.

Monitoring sediment transport is essential for managing and maintaining rivers.Estimation of the sediment load in rivers is fundamental for the study of sediment movement,erosion,and flood control.In the current study,three machine learning models-multi-layer perceptron(MLP),multi-layer perceptron-stochastic gradient descent(MLP-SGD),and gradient boosted tree(GBT)-were utilized to estimate the suspended sediment load(SSL)at the St.Louis(SL)and Chester(CH)stations on the Mississippi River,U.S.Four evaluation criteria including the Correlation Coefficient(CC),Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency(NSE),Scatter Index(SI),and Willmott’s Index(WI)were utilized to evaluate the performance of the used models.A sensitivity analysis of the models to the input variables revealed that the current day discharge variable had the most effect on the SSL at both stations,but in the absence of current-day discharge data(Qt),a combination of input parameters including SSL_t-3,SSL_t-2,SSL_t-1,Q_t-3,Q_t-2,Q_t-1 can be used to estimate the SSL.The comparative outcomes indicated the high accuracy of MLP-SGD-5 model with a CC of 0.983,SI of 0.254,WI of 0.991,and NSE of 0.967 at station CH and the MLP-SGD-6 model with a CC of 0.933,SI of 0.576,WI of 0.961,and NSE of 0.867,respectively,at station SL.The results of MLP models were improved by SGD optimization.Therefore,the MLP-SGD method is recommended as the most accurate model for SSL estimation.     

Threat of glacial lake outburst flood to Tehsil Gupis from Khukush Lake, District Ghizer, Gilgit Baltistan, Pakistan

Glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) is a powerful natural phenomenon that is very active in the Karakoram and Himalayas. This paper presents a case study from Gupis Tehsil in northern areas of Pakistan that is exposed to GLOFs from nine different glacial lakes in its upper catchment areas. Khukush Lake being the largest of all the glacial lakes has been studied and a flood attenuation model has been created for the whole Gupis Tehsil. This lake covers almost 2.2 km² of surface area, and its calculated volume is 2.6 × 10⁴ m³. In case of its outburst, the peak flow discharge is calculated to be 7,642 m³/s. The catchment area which contributes water and debris to the lake is 170 km². This lake is dammed by a glacial moraine, which is not strong enough to sustain the pressure for a longer period of time. Other factors that are reducing the reliability of the dam are the secondary hazards which are in direct contact with the lake, and in case of their reactivation, they can put severe impacts on the dam. There are eight potential sites of the snow avalanche activity where debris along with snow may fall directly into the lake producing a strong wave. This strong wave of water will increase the pressure on the dam and ultimately will increase the probability for its outburst. The presense of water springs towards the downstream side of the natural dam also indicate the presence of hidden channels passing through the dam which may weaken the shear strength of the dam. Almost 24 villages settled along either sides of the Gupis River are critically studied for the expected flood from Khukush Lake. With few exceptions, almost 20–25 % area of all the villages will be affected from this flood.     

Characterisation of the Sarcheshmeh copper mine tailings,Kerman province,southeast of Iran

Mineral processing operation at the Sarcheshmeh porphyry copper mine has produced huge quantities of tailings materials containing sulphide minerals in particular pyrite. These tailings materials were geochemically and mineralogically characterised to assess pyrite and chalcopyrite oxidation, acid mine drainage generation, and trace element mobility to lead development of a proper remediation plan. Five vertical trenches up to 4.2 m deep were excavated from the tailings surface, and 70 solid samples were taken in 0.3 m intervals. The samples were first mineralogically analysed. Pyrite was the main sulphide mineral found in the tailings. The gangue minerals include quartz ± muscovite–illite ± chlorite ± albite ± orthoclase ± halite. The samples were geochemically analysed for total concentrations of 62 elements, paste pH, SO₄ ^2?, CO₃ ^2?, and HCO₃ ^?. The maximum concentrations of SO₄ ^2? (1,300, 1,170, 1,852, 1,960 and 837 mg/L) were observed at a depth of 0.9 m in profiles A, B, C, D and E, respectively. The tailings have a high acid-producing potential and low acid-neutralising potential (pyrite 4–6 wt %, calcite 1 wt %). Fe₂(SO₄)₃, CuSO₄, MgSO₄ and MnSO₄ were the dominant secondary sulphate minerals in the tailings. The lowest pH values (2.9, 3 and 3) were measured at a depth of 0.3 m in the profiles A, B and C, 3.9 at a depth of 0.6 m in the profile D and 3 at a depth of 0.9 m in the profile E. The upper portions of the profiles C (1.8 m) and D (2.1 m) were moderately oxidised, while oxidation in the profiles A, B and E did not extend more than 1.2, 1.2 and 1.5 m beneath the tailings surface. Zn, Pb, Rb, U, Hf, Nd, Zr and Ga show almost a constant trend with depth. Cd, Sr, Th, La and Ce increased with increasing depth of the tailings materials while, Co, V, Ti, Cr, Cu, As, Mn, Ag, Mo and Ni exhibit initially a decreasing trend from tailings surface to the depths that vary between 0.9 and 1.2. They then remained constant with the depth. The results show pyrite and chalcopyrite oxidation at surface layers of the tailings and subsequent leaching of the oxidation products and trace elements by infiltrated atmospheric precipitation.     

Evaluating effectiveness of frequency ratio,fuzzy logic and logistic regression models in assessing landslide susceptibility: a case from Rudraprayag district,India

Rudraprayag in Garhwal Himalayan division is one of the most vulnerable districts to landslides in India. Heavy rainfall, steep slope and developmental activities are important factors for the occurrence of landslides in the district. Therefore, specific assessment of landslide susceptibility and its accuracy at regional level is essential for disaster management and proper land use planning. The article evaluates effectiveness of frequency ratio, fuzzy logic and logistic regression models for assessing landslide susceptibility in Rudraprayag district of Uttarakhand state, India. A landslide inventory map was prepared and verified by field data. Fourteen landslide parameters and generated inventory map were utilized to prepare landslide susceptibility maps through frequency ratio, fuzzy logic and logistic regression models. Landslide susceptibility maps generated through these models were classified into very high, high, medium, low and very low categories using natural breaks classification. Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve, spatially agreed area approach and seed cell area index (SCAI) method were used to validate the landslide models. Validation results revealed that fuzzy logic model was found to be more effective in assessing landslide susceptibility in the study area. The landslide susceptibility map generated through fuzzy logic model can be best utilized for landslide disaster management and effective land use planning.     

Exploring Placer Gold Deposits through Integrated Geophysical and Geochemical Techniques at the Confluence of the Indus and Kabul Rivers, NW Pakistan

Analysis of the anomalous magnetic mineral intensities and geochemistry for placer gold deposits are presented for those of the Attock area at the confluence of the Indus and Kabul rivers in northwestern Pakistan. Two grids covering an area of 10x18 m2 and 8x10 m2 were analyzed using a G-858 Cesium Vapor Magnetometer. The anomalous zones obtained were plotted on contour maps, 2D and 3D magnetic intensity maps. Based on the magnetic anomalies, grid-1 of the study area was sampled at three different anomalous zones for geochemical analysis. These zones contain gold concentrations, ranging from 2.11 ppm to 6.109 ppm with an average of 4.01 ppm. Increase in gold concentration in the subsurface within the anomalous zones indicates that magnetometer survey followed by a geochemical analysis can potentially narrow down the gold-bearing anomalous zones.     

Hydro-climatological changes in the Colorado River Basin over a century

This study evaluates changes in streamflow, temperature and precipitation over a time span of 105 years (1906–2010) in the Colorado River Basin (CRB). Monthly precipitation and temperature data for 29 climate divisions, and streamflow data for 29 naturalized gauges were analyzed. Two variations of the Mann-Kendall test, considering lag-1 auto correlation and long-term persistence, and the Pettitt test were employed to assess trends and shifts, respectively. Results indicated that streamflow increased during the winter–spring months and decreased during the summer– autumn period. Decreasing trends in winter precipitation were identified over snow-dominated regions in the upper basin. Significant increases in temperature were detected over several months. Major shifts were noticed in 1964, 1968 and in the late 1920s. Increasing temperature while decreasing streamflow and precipitation were noticed after major shifts in the 1930s, and these shifts coincided with coupled phases of El Niño Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation.

EDITOR A. Castellarin; ASSOCIATE EDITOR R. Hirsch     

Non-parametric seismic hazard analysis in the presence of incomplete data

The distribution of earthquake magnitudes plays a crucial role in the estimation of seismic hazard parameters. Due to the complexity of earthquake magnitude distribution, non-parametric approaches are recommended over classical parametric methods. The main deficiency of the non-parametric approach is the lack of complete magnitude data in almost all cases. This study aims to introduce an imputation procedure for completing earthquake catalog data that will allow the catalog to be used for non-parametric density estimation. Using a Monte Carlo simulation, the efficiency of introduced approach is investigated. This study indicates that when a magnitude catalog is incomplete, the imputation procedure can provide an appropriate tool for seismic hazard assessment. As an illustration, the imputation procedure was applied to estimate earthquake magnitude distribution in Tehran, the capital city of Iran.