Multivariate adaptive regression splines for estimating riverine constituent concentrations

Regression-based methods are commonly used for riverine constituent concentration/flux estimation, which is essential for guiding water quality protection practices and environmental decision making. This paper developed a multivariate adaptive regression splines model for estimating riverine constituent concentrations (MARS-EC). The process, interpretability and flexibility of the MARS-EC modelling approach, was demonstrated for total nitrogen in the Patuxent River, a major river input to Chesapeake Bay. Model accuracy and uncertainty of the MARS-EC approach was further analysed using nitrate plus nitrite datasets from eight tributary rivers to Chesapeake Bay. Results showed that the MARS-EC approach integrated the advantages of both parametric and nonparametric regression methods, and model accuracy was demonstrated to be superior to the traditionally used ESTIMATOR model. MARS-EC is flexible and allows consideration of auxiliary variables; the variables and interactions can be selected automatically. MARS-EC does not constrain concentration-predictor curves to be constant but rather is able to identify shifts in these curves from mathematical expressions and visual graphics. The MARS-EC approach provides an effective and complementary tool along with existing approaches for estimating riverine constituent concentrations.     

基于F型mtDNA D-Loop的厚壳贻贝(Mytilus coruscus)群体遗传多样性研究

为研究东海区厚壳贻贝(Mytilus coruscus)遗传多样性,以厚壳贻贝F mtDNA D-loop为标记,对浙江省舟山嵊山岛、宁波渔山岛、温州南麂岛、福建省宁德湾和莆田南日岛五个海区的厚壳贻贝群体进行了遗传分析。结果表明,厚壳贻贝各群体的遗传多样性差异不明显,在5个群体中,宁德群体的遗传多样性相对最丰富;将5个群体作为一个整体时,呈现出较高的单倍型多样性和较低的核苷酸多样性。对厚壳贻贝5个群体间的遗传分化系数(Fst)和基因流(Nm)进行检测,结果显示群体间Fst值都很低,但Nm值都很高(Nm绝对值1),表明5个群体间存在丰富的基因交流。但宁德群体与浙江沿海的3个群体(嵊山、渔山、温州)的Fst值相对较高,且差异显著(P0.5),表明宁德群体与这3个群体间出现遗传分化。本研究旨在为海洋经济贝类资源的保护管理提供理论依据。     

随机森林模型在遥感水深反演中的应用

随着我国浅海测绘需求的日益增长,文中利用四波段的WorldView-2高分辨率遥感影像,选取我国南海西沙群岛中的甘泉岛和台湾南湾地区作为典型试验区,开展水深反演研究。引入随机森林算法构建了随机森林水深反演模型,并同常用的3种水深反演模型进行精度对比。结果表明,在甘泉岛和南湾地区随机森林模型反演的水深值和真实水深值的RMSE分别为0.85 m和1.59 m,MRE分别为8%和12%,均优于其他3种模型。     

基于大数据分析下的气候模型

为研究全球变暖与极寒天气间的关系，对加拿大13个省代表性测站10年的观测数据进行时空变化趋势分析，采用经验正交函数（EOF）寻找海洋表面温度历史数据的变化规律。另外利用BP神经网络建立了年平均温度、日降水量与地球吸热、散热、海表面温度、当地纬度间的关系，预测未来25年气候的变化，并建立了“极寒天气”与气候变化的关系模型。研究表明：高纬度地区温度、降水量普遍较低，同经度地区的温度差异较小且降水量变化不大；加拿大地区温度呈周期性变化，符合北半球的季节变化特征；北大西洋的东部与其他海洋的温度是反相关的，西太平洋南北回归线附近的海洋表面温度升高；“极寒天气”出现频率与气候变化有一定关系，局地极寒现象与全球变暖的大趋势并不矛盾。本研究为人们认识和理解“全球变暖”提供了一个新的思路。     

Analysis of nonstationarity in low flow in the Loess Plateau of China

An approach for nonstationary low‐flow frequency analysis is developed and demonstrated on a dataset from the rivers on the Loess Plateau of China. Nonstationary low‐flow frequency analysis has drawn significant attention in recent years by establishing relationships between low‐flow series and explanatory variables series, but few studies have tested whether the time‐varying moments of low flow can be fully described by the time‐varying moments of the explanatory variables. In this research, the low‐flow distributions are analytically derived from the 2 basic explanatory variables—the recession duration and the recession coefficient—with the assumption that the recession duration and recession coefficient variables follow exponential and gamma distributions, respectively; the derived low‐flow distributions are applied to test whether the time‐varying moments of explanatory variables can explain the nonstationarities found in the low‐flow variable. The effects of ecosystem construction measures, that is, check dam, terrace, forest, and grassland, on the recession duration and recession coefficient are further discussed. Daily flow series from 11 hydrological stations from the Loess Plateau are used and processed with a moving average technique. Low‐flow data are extracted following the pit under threshold approach. Six of the 11 low‐flow series show significant nonstationarities at the 5% significance level, and the trend curves of the moments of low flow are in close agreement with the curves estimated from the derived distribution with time‐dependent moments of the recession duration and time‐constant moments of the recession coefficient. It is indicated that the nonstationarity in the low‐flow distribution results from the nonstationarity in the recession duration in all 6 cases, and the increase in the recession duration is resulted from large‐scale ecosystem constructions rather than climate change. The large‐scale ecosystem constructions are found to have more influence on the decrease in streamflow than on the increase in watershed storage, thus resulting in the reduction of low flow. A high return period for the initial fixed design value decreases dramatically with an increasing recession duration.     

1995—2015年中国省际人口迁移网络的演化特征——基于异质性劳动力视角

自户籍制度放宽以来,中国经历了大规模的人口迁移。其中,异质性劳动力（高技能劳动力、普通劳动力）在迁移过程中表征出不同的空间格局和网络组织特征,对地区经济发展产生各异的影响。本研究基于人口普查和抽样调查微观抽样数据,使用复杂网络理论对1995—2015年中国异质性劳动力迁移的时空格局和网络演化展开分析,并分析了格局背后的可能成因。研究发现：① 省际高技能和普通劳动力迁移均呈现出持续高度不平衡的空间集聚特征,承载大量人口的迁移流主要由中国中西部地区指向东部沿海地区,但这种空间不平衡特征呈现出一定的减弱趋势。高技能劳动力的平均迁移距离比普通劳动力更长;② 两类劳动力迁移网络中均呈现明显的“小世界”特性,但普通劳动力迁移网络的迁移强度和关联程度均高于高技能劳动力迁移网络;③ 两类劳动力迁移网络均呈现出以北京、上海、广东为主要核心节点的网络结构。高技能劳动力网络结构呈现相对稳定的特征,而普通劳动力网络结构则呈现出变化的趋势;④ 地区经济差异、路径依赖效应、异质性劳动力在就业市场上的差异性以及劳动力市场对异质性劳动力需求的差异是导致两类劳动力迁移格局差异性的重要成因。     

基于大型科研基础设施共享的区域创新网络研究——以山东省为例

在产业革命和科技革命的背景下,创新在区域发展中发挥着越来越重要的作用,网络化创新模式成为当下创新的主流模式之一。基于创新网络视角,利用大型科研仪器共享大数据,对山东省创新网络的空间特征和主体特征进行分析,研究发现：山东省创新网络在形态上呈现出以济南为创新核心辐射带动济宁和淄博等周边边缘城市发展,同时形成东部青岛、威海和烟台作为创新次级核心集中连片发展的空间格局。然而,创新网络的形态核心节点与功能核心节点存在错位,从网络关联的角度出发,山东省区域创新网络节点存在核心、次核心、地方核心、外围4个层级,济南、济宁、淄博、潍坊中心地位明显,并且各级节点数量规模呈现金字塔格局,等级结构完善。网络联系强度最大的主要是济南市向周边辐射的联系,区域政产学研协同创新体系基本确立,存在综合创新模式、异质创新模式、根植创新模式和孤立创新模式四种创新网络模式。通过QAP模型分析表明,行政、交通等因素使得创新合作更倾向于发生在与省会城市之间以及地理接壤、交通条件优越的城市之间。最后,基于研究基础,对山东省创新网络优化、大型科研仪器共享、区域产业发展等提出发展建议。     

新城市贫困空间居住满意度及其影响因素——基于西安市企业社区的实证

研究新城市贫困空间居住满意度,对深入认识城市贫困群体生活状况,提升居住质量,完善居住区理论具有重要意义。论文以西安市主城区典型老旧企业社区为例,基于1010份问卷数据,构建居住满意度结构方程模型,探究居民居住满意度及其影响因素;引入重要性—绩效理论(importance-performance analysis, IPA),甄别企业社区改造重点与次序,指出老旧小区提升建议。结果表明：① 企业社区居住满意度整体“一般”,在李克特五分制量表下均值为3.21;② 居住满意度受居住环境、住房条件及配套设施3个方面影响,与居民搬离意愿呈显著负相关;③ 不同社会经济属性个体的居住满意度在年龄、文化程度、户籍、职业、个人收入、居住时长、住宅产权以及企业运营状况等变量作用下差异显著;④ 企业社区改造亟需优先关注社区休憩活动场所、卫生清洁、适老化医疗护理设施、物业服务、公共服务设施等要素,进而改善居住条件,增强居民的社区归属感与凝聚力。文章提出从创新管理模式、改善居住环境、改造住房条件以及建设配套设施等4个方面实施未来老旧小区改造建议。     

Gas Flow Characteristics and Optimization of Gas Drainage Borehole Layout in Protective Coal Seam Mining: A Case Study from the Shaqu Coal Mine,Shanxi Province,China

With increasing demands for coal resources, coal has been gradually mined in deep coal seams. Due to high gas content, pressure and in situ stress, deep coal seams show great risks of coal and gas outburst. Protective coal seam mining, as a safe and effective method for gas control, has been widely used in major coal-producing countries in the world. However, at present, the relevant problems, such as gas seepage characteristics and optimization of gas drainage borehole layout in protective coal seam mining have been rarely studied. Firstly, by combining with formulas for measuring and testing permeability of coal and rock mass in different stress regimes and failure modes in the laboratory, this study investigated stress–seepage coupling laws by using built-in language Fish of numerical simulation software FLAC^3D. In addition, this research analyzed distribution characteristics of permeability in a protected coal seam in the process of protective coal seam mining. Secondly, the protected coal seam was divided into a zone with initial permeability, a zone with decreasing permeability, and permeability increasing zones 1 and 2 according to the changes of permeability. In these zones, permeability rises the most in the permeability increasing zone 2. Moreover, by taking Shaqu Coal Mine, Shanxi Province, China as an example, layout of gas drainage boreholes in the protected coal seam was optimized based on the above permeability-based zoning. Finally, numerical simulation and field application showed that gas drainage volume and concentration rise significantly after optimizing borehole layout. Therefore, when gas is drained through boreholes crossing coal seams during the protective coal seam mining in other coal mines, optimization of borehole layout in Shaqu Coal Mine has certain reference values.

     

Sentinel-2影像红边谱段对不同生长期区域优势树种识别的影响

以中国东北赤峰市美林地区5种典型优势树种为研究对象,采用与当地森林植被生长期相对应的5景Senti-nel-2影像,借助支持向量机模型(SVM)与递归特征消除算法(RFE),根据可见光-近红外波段(VNIR)与不同红边谱段(RE)及红边指数(REVI)组合条件下的森林优势树种可分性测度及结果精度差异,探讨Sentinel-2影像不同红边谱段及其指数特征对区域优势树种遥感识别的影响.结果表明:Sentinel-2影像红边谱段的不同组合方式对不同生长期优势树种识别影响存在显著差异(P<0.05),其中VNIR+B5+B6为生长盛期的最佳组合方式,能够在VNIR基础上将生长盛期的识别精度均值提升约7.71％;叶全变色期是进行优势树种识别的最佳时期(P<0.05),该时期基于VNIR波段的识别精度均值达71.28％,在叠加红边波段B5+B6后提升至75.41％.此外,采用SVM-RFE算法构建适用于不同生长期的最佳REVI组合,其平均识别精度能够在全年5个生长期达到72.00％～84.31％,相比同时期基于RE+VNIR组合的最优识别结果平均提升了10.77％;在此基础上,构建适用于全生长期的优选植被指数PSRI+mSAVI+CIred-edge时间序列,可实现89.03％的平均识别精度,比单时相最佳REVI组合提升了4.72％～17.03％.研究证明Sentinel-2影像红边谱段及其衍生指数特征在区域森林优势树种识别中具有较高的应用价值,可为快速、准确地提取不同生长期森林植被信息提供技术方法参考.