Uncertainties in simulating regional climate of Southern Africa: sensitivity to physical parameterizations using WRF

This study aims at quantifying seasonal biases of regional climate model outputs during southern African summer, against a dense in situ measurement network (daily rain-gauge and surface air temperature records, and 12?h UTC radiosondes), and uncertainties associated with some physical parameterizations. Using the non-hydrostatic Advanced Research Weather Forecast (WRF) laterally forced by ERA40 reanalysis, twenty-seven experiments configured with three schemes of cumulus (CU), planetary boundary layer (PBL) and microphysics (MP), are performed at 35?km horizontal resolution during the core of a summer rainy season (December 1993 to February 1994 season) representative of the South African rainfall climatology. WRF simulates accurately seasonal large-scale rainfall patterns, as well as seasonal gradients of South African rainfall and 2-m temperature, and seasonal vertical profiles of the air temperature and humidity. However seasonal biases fluctuate strongly from an experiment to another, denoting considerable uncertainties generated by the physical package. Rainfall amounts are the most sensitive parameter to the tested schemes. Their geography, intensity, and intraseasonal characteristics are predominantly sensitive to CU schemes, and much less to PBL and MP schemes. Some CU-PBL combinations produce additive effects, which can dramatically either reduce or increase biases. Satisfactory configurations are found for South African climate, which would not have been possible without testing numerous physical parameterizations.     

Variation in the moisture regime of northeastern interior Alaska and possible linkages to the Aleutian Low: inferences from a late-Holocene δ18O record

Analyses of oxygen and carbon isotopes in bulk carbonate and Chara-stem encrustations, X-ray diffraction, and sediment composition from Keche Lake offer new information on climatic change over the past ~3,400?years in northeastern interior Alaska. The ??¹⁸O and ??D values of water samples from the lake and its inlet streams suggest that evaporation plays an important role in determining the isotopic composition of Keche Lake water at present. However, evaporative enrichment does not appear to be a major driver of the pronounced fluctuations in the bulk-carbonate ??¹⁸O record on the basis of comparison with Chara-??¹⁸O values. The ??¹⁸O values of bulk carbonate in the Keche Lake sediments vary by up to 10??? over the past 3,400?years, with maximum values of ?12??? around 3,400?cal BP and between 2,100 and 1,500?cal BP. High ??¹⁸O peaks are associated with sediments dominated by quartz, feldspar, and clay minerals suggesting the influence of detrital carbonate. Multi-millennial patterns of ??¹⁸O variation at Keche Lake appear to be linked with changes in watershed and sediment-depositional processes, which may be driven by varying moisture abundance associated with the position of the Aleutian Low (AL). The increasing trend of carbonate ??¹⁸O from 3,400 to ~2,100?cal BP probably reflects the increasing importance of a westerly AL, and the high frequency of ??¹⁸O spikes ~2,100?C1,500?cal BP may have resulted from the prevalence of a westerly AL position. Predominance of a westerly AL likely increased snowfall and winter temperature in the region. Such conditions would have promoted soil erosion and thermokarst activity during spring snowmelt, resulting in episodic large influxes of detrital carbonate to Keche Lake and elevating bulk-carbonate ??¹⁸O. Over the past 1,500?years, bulk-carbonate ??¹⁸O remained relatively high at Keche Lake but variation was much less pronounced than before. A broad ??¹⁸O peak centered ~400?cal BP may be related to enhanced winter moisture during the Little Ice Age, although our chronology is inadequate for a rigorous assessment of this interpretation. This study contributes a new ??¹⁸O record and offers additional information on past moisture-regime shifts associated with changing atmospheric-circulation patterns.     

An ~11,200?year paleolimnological perspective for emerging archaeological findings at Quartz Lake, Alaska

Wetlands and lakes in the Tanana Valley, Alaska, have provided important resources for prehistoric humans who inhabited this region. We examine an ~11,200?cal?yr BP record of environmental and paleolimnological changes from Quartz Lake in the middle Tanana Valley. Our data are also presented in the context of recent archaeological findings in the lake??s general vicinity that have 18 associated AMS ¹⁴C dates. We analyzed the stable-carbon and nitrogen isotope composition of total organic matter from the core, coupled with oxygen and carbon isotope analyses of Pisidiidae shells (fingernail clams), in addition to chironomid assemblage changes. Lacustrine sediments began to accumulate at ~11,200?cal?yr BP. Initially, autochthonous production was low and allochthonous organic input was negligible between 11,000 and 10,500?cal?yr BP, and were associated with relatively cool conditions at Quartz Lake at ~10,700?cal?yr BP. After 10,500?cal?yr BP, autochthonous production was higher coincident with a shift to chironomid assemblages dominated by taxa associated with warmer summer climates. A decrease in ??¹³C values of total organic carbon (TOC) and organic content of the sediment between 9,000 and 4,000?cal?yr BP may indicate declining autochthonous primary production. This period ended with an abrupt (~7???) decrease in the ??¹⁸O values from Pisidiidae shells at ~3,000?cal?yr BP, which we hypothesize represented an episodic connection (flood) of the lake with flow from the nearby (~6?km) Tanana River. Our findings coincide with evidence for major flooding at other locations connected to the Tanana River and further afield in Alaska. From ~3,000?cal?yr BP Quartz Lake subsequently appeared to become a relatively closed system, as indicated by the ??¹⁸O_Pisidiidae and ??¹³C_Pisidiidae data that are positively correlated and generally higher, which also correlates with a shift to moderately higher abundances of littoral chironomids. The cause of the transition to closed-basin conditions may have been geomorphic rather than climatic. This evidence of a progressively stronger evaporative influence on the lake??s closed hydrology after ~3,000?cal?yr BP is consistent with our modern ??¹⁸O and ??D water data from Quartz Lake that plot along a regional evaporative line we base on isotopic measurements from other local lakes and rivers.     

Consistency and fidelity of Indonesian-throughflow total volume transport estimated by 14 ocean data assimilation products

Monthly averaged total volume transport of the Indonesian throughflow (ITF) estimated by 14 global ocean data assimilation (ODA) products that are decade to multi-decade long are compared among themselves and with observations from the INSTANT Program (2004–2006). The main goals of the comparisons are to examine the consistency and evaluate the skill of different ODA products in simulating ITF transport. The ensemble averaged, time-mean value of ODA estimates is 13.6 Sv (1 Sv = 10⁶ m³/s) for the common 1993–2001 period and 13.9 Sv for the 2004–2006 INSTANT Program period. These values are close to the 15-Sv estimate derived from INSTANT observations. All but one ODA time-mean estimate fall within the range of uncertainty of the INSTANT estimate. In terms of temporal variability, the scatter among different ODA estimates averaged over time is 1.7 Sv, which is substantially smaller than the magnitude of the temporal variability simulated by the ODA systems. Therefore, the overall “signal-to-noise” ratio for the ensemble estimates is larger than one. The best consistency among the products occurs on seasonal-to-interannual time scales, with generally stronger (weaker) ITF during boreal summer (winter) and during La Nina (El Nino) events. The scatter among different products for seasonal-to-interannual time scales is approximately 1 Sv. Despite the good consistency, systematic difference is found between most ODA products and the INSTANT observations. All but the highest-resolution (18 km) ODA product show a dominant annual cycle while the INSTANT estimate and the 18-km product exhibit a strong semi-annual signal. The coarse resolution is an important factor that limits the level of agreement between ODA and INSTANT estimates. Decadal signals with periods of 10–15 years are seen. The most conspicuous and consistent decadal change is a relatively sharp increase in ITF transport during 1993–2000 associated with the strengthening tropical Pacific trade wind. Most products do not show a weakening ITF after the mid-1970s’ associated with the weakened Pacific trade wind. The scatter of ODA estimates is smaller after than before 1980, reflecting the impact of the enhanced observations after the 1980s. To assess the representativeness of using the average over a three-year period (e.g., the span of the INSTANT Program) to describe longer-term mean, we investigate the temporal variations of the three-year low-pass ODA estimates. The average variation is about 3.6 Sv, which is largely due to the increase of ITF transport from 1993 to 2000. However, the three-year average during the 2004–2006 INSTANT Program period is within 0.5 Sv of the long-term mean for the past few decades.     

Rapid vegetation responses and feedbacks amplify climate model response to snow cover changes

We investigate the response of a climate system model to two different methods for estimating snow cover fraction. In the control case, snow cover fraction changes gradually with snow depth; in the alternative scenarios (one with prescribed vegetation and one with dynamic vegetation), snow cover fraction initially increases with snow depth almost twice as fast as the control method. In cases where the vegetation was fixed (prescribed), the choice of snow cover parameterization resulted in a limited model response. Increased albedo associated with the high snow caused some moderate localized cooling (3–5°C), mostly at very high latitudes (>70°N) and during the spring season. During the other seasons, however, the cooling was not very extensive. With dynamic vegetation the change is much more dramatic. The initial increases in snow cover fraction with the new parameterization lead to a large-scale southward retreat of boreal vegetation, widespread cooling, and persistent snow cover over much of the boreal region during the boreal summer. Large cold anomalies of up to 15°C cover much of northern Eurasia and North America and the cooling is geographically extensive in the northern hemisphere extratropics, especially during the spring and summer seasons. This study demonstrates the potential for dynamic vegetation within climate models to be quite sensitive to modest forcing. This highlights the importance of dynamic vegetation, both as an amplifier of feedbacks in the climate system and as an essential consideration when implementing adjustments to existing model parameters and algorithms.     

Magma batches in the Timber Mountain magmatic system, Southwestern Nevada Volcanic Field, Nevada, USA

The common occurrence of compositionally and mineralogically zoned ash flow sheets, such as those of the Timber Mountain Group, provides evidence that the source magma bodies were chemically and thermally zoned. The Rainier Mesa and Ammonia Tanks tuffs of the Timber Mountain Group are both large volume (1200 and 900 km³, respectively) chemically zoned (57–78 wt.% SiO₂) ash flow sheets. Evidence of distinct magma batches in the Timber Mountain system are based on: (1) major- and trace-element variations of whole pumice fragments; (2) major-element variations in phenocrysts; (3) major-element variations in glass matrix; and (4) emplacement temperatures calculated from Fe-Ti oxides and feldspars. There are three distinct groups of pumice fragments in the Rainier Mesa Tuff: a low-silica group and two high-silica groups (a low-Th and a high-Th group). These groups cannot be related by crystal fractionation. The low-silica portion of the Rainier Mesa Tuff is distinct from the low-silica portion of the overlying Ammonia Tanks Tuff, even though the age difference is less than 200,000 years. Three distinct groups occur in the Ammonia Tanks Tuff: a low-silica, intermediate-silica and a high-silica group. Part of the high-silica group may be due to mixing of the two high-silica Rainier Mesa groups. The intermediate-silica group may be due to mixing of the low- and high-silica Ammonia Tanks groups. Three distinct emplacement temperatures occur in the Rainier Mesa Tuff (869, 804, 723 °C) that correspond to the low-silica, high-Th and low-Th magma batches, respectively. These temperature differences could not have been maintained for any length of time in the magma chamber (cf. Turner, J.S., Campbell, I.H., 1986. Convection and mixing in magma chambers. Earth-Sci. Rev. 23, 255–352; Martin, D., Griffiths, R.W., Campbell, I.H., 1987. Compositional and thermal convection in magma chambers. Contrib. Mineral. Petrol. 96, 465–475) and therefore eruption must have occurred soon after emplacement of the magma batches into the chamber. Emplacement temperatures of the pumice fragments from the Ammonia Tanks Tuff show a continuous gradient of temperatures with composition. This continuous temperature gradient is consistent with the model of storage of magma batches in the Ammonia Tanks group that have undergone both thermal and chemical diffusion.     

Modern saltmarsh diatom distributions of the Outer Banks, North Carolina, and the development of a transfer function for high resolution reconstructions of sea level

We collected modern diatom samples from Currituck Barrier Island, Oregon Inlet and Pea Island marshes, Outer Banks, North Carolina, USA, which have different salinity regimes due to their varying distances from a major barrier island inlet. Multivariate analyses separate the saltmarsh diatom assemblages into distinct elevational zones, dominated by differing abundances of polyhalobous, mesohalobous and oligohalobous taxa, suggesting that the distribution of saltmarsh diatoms is a direct function of elevation, with the most important controlling factors being the duration and frequency of subaerial exposure.We developed the first diatom-based transfer function for the east coast of North America to reconstruct former sea levels based upon the relationship between diatom assemblage and elevation. Results imply that this is possible to a precision of ±0.08 m, superior to most similar studies from temperate, mid-latitude environments. The transfer function is used to construct a relative sea-level curve from fossil assemblages from Salvo, North Carolina. These results suggest a sea-level rise of 0.7 m over the last c. 150 years, at an average of c. 3.7 mm year⁻¹. This is consistent with existing sea-level data, and illustrates the utility of the transfer function approach.