The equivalence of predictions from universal kriging and intrinsic random-function kriging

A proof is provided that the predictions obtained from kriging based on intrinsic random functions of orderk are identical to those obtained from anappropriate universal kriging model. This is a theoretical result based on known variability measures. It does not imply that people performing traditional universal kriging will get the same predictions as those using intrinsic random functions, because traditionally these methods differ in how variability is modeled. For intrinsic random functions, the same proof shows that predictions do not depend on the specific choice of the generalized covariance function. It is argued that the choice between these methods is really one of modeling and estimating the variability in the data.     

A mechanism for preferential H2O leakage from fluid inclusions in quartz,based on TEM observations

Preferential leakage of H₂O from fluid inclusions containing multiple gas components has been suspected in natural metamorphic rocks and has been demonstrated experimentally for synthetic H₂O-CO₂-rich inclusions in natural quartz. Knowledge of the physical and chemical characteristics of the leakage mechanism, which may be very complex, increases the value of natural fluid inclusions to metamorphic geology. It is proposed that crystal defects play a major role in nondecrepitative preferential H₂O leakage through quartz, and remain effective during metamorphism. Inclusions with either an internal overpressure or underpressure produce strain in the adjacent quartz crystal via the nucleation of many dislocations and planar defects (like Dauphiné twin boundaries). These defects allow preferential loss of H₂O from H₂O-CO₂-rich inclusions at supercritical conditions. The transport capacity of this leakage mechanism is enhanced by nucleation of small bubbles on defect structures. The nucleation of these bubbles seems to be a recovery process in strained crystals. Solubility gradients of quartz in water in a crystal with internally underpressurized inclusions may result in optical visible implosion halos in a three dimensional spatial arrangement, caused by the growth of small bubbles at the expense of the larger original fluid inclusion. Natural fluid inclusions from Naxos (Greece) are always associated with numerous interlinked dislocations. These dislocations may have been produced by plastic derormation or by crystal growth related processes (e.g. crack healing). The presence of small bubbles on these dislocations indicates that a similar leakage mechanism for H₂O must have occurred in these rocks.     

The status and prospects of risk assessment

After discussing the changing nature of perceived risk problems, the status of risk assessment is described in relation to its origins and in particular to its roots in the environmental impact statement process. The nature of risk, its component elements and the manner in which existing concepts of risk have been reflected in risk assessment methods are described. The paper considers two emerging schools of thought in current risk assessment studies: one that calls for more accurate measures of risk and increasingly comprehensive event prediction models to determine risk acceptability and another which argues that the acceptance of risk is less dependent on the accuracy of risk analyses than it is on the nature of the decision-making process and in particular on whether compensation is provided for those bearing a disproportionate share of risk.     

A reassessment of the economic effects of global climate change on U.S. agriculture

This study uses recent GCM forecasts, improved plant science and water supply data and refined economic modeling capabilities to reassess the economic consequences of long-term climate change on U.S. agriculture. Changes in crop yields, crop water demand and irrigation water arising from climate change result in changes in economic welfare. Economic consequences of the three GCM scenarios are mixed; GISS and GFDL-QFlux result in aggregate economic gains, UKMO implies losses. As in previous studies, the yield enhancing effects of atmospheric CO₂ are an important determinant of potential economic consequences. Inclusion of changes in world food production and associated export changes generally have a positive affect on U.S. agriculture. As with previous studies, the magnitude of economic effects estimated here are a small percentage of U.S. agricultural value.     

An electrochemical study of Ni2+, Co2+, and Zn2+ ions in melts of composition CaMgSi2O6

Cyclic voltammetry has been done for Ni²⁺, Co²⁺, and Zn²⁺ in melts of diopside composition in the temperature range 1425 to 1575°C. Voltammetric curves for all three ions excellently match theoretical curves for uncomplicated, reversible charge transfer at the Pt electrode. This implies that the neutral metal atoms remain dissolved in the melt. The reference electrode is a form of oxygen electrode. Relative to that reference assigned a reduction potential of 0.00 volt, the values of standard reduction potential for the ions are $\text{E}{}^1\text{(}\text{Ni}{}^{\mathrm{2+}}\text{Ni}{}^0\text{,}\text{diopside}\text{, 1500°C) = ?0.32 ± .01}\text{V}$, $\text{E}{}^1\text{(}\text{Co}{}^{\mathrm{2+}}\text{Co}{}^0\text{,}\text{diopside}\text{, 1500°C) = ?0.45 ± .02}\text{V}$, and $\text{E}{}^1\text{(}\text{Zn}{}^{\mathrm{2+}}\text{Zn}{}^0\text{,}\text{diopside}\text{, 1500°C) = ?0.53 ± .01}\text{V}$. The electrode reactions are rapid, with first order rate constants of the order of 10^?2 cm/sec. Diffusion coefficients were found to be 2.6 × 10^?6 cm²/sec for Ni²⁺, 3.4 × 10^?6 cm²/sec for Co²⁺, and 3.8 × 10^?6 cm²/sec for Zn²⁺ at 1500°C. The value of $\text{E1}$ ($\text{Ni}{}^{\mathrm{2+}}\text{Ni}{}^0$, diopside) is a linear function of temperature over the range studied, with values of ?0.35 V at 1425°C and ?0.29 V at 1575°C. At constant temperature the value of $\text{E}{}^1\text{(}\text{Ni}{}^{\mathrm{2+}}\text{Ni}{}^0\text{, 1525°C}$) was not observed to vary with composition over the range CaO · MgO · 2SiO₂ to CaO·MgO·3SiO₂ or from 1.67 CaO·0.33MgO·2SiO₂ to 0.5 CaO·1.5MgO·2SiO₂. The value for the diffusion coefficient for Ni²⁺ decreased by an order of magnitude at 1525°C over the compositional range CaO · MgO · 1.25SiO₂ to CaO · MgO · 3SiO₂. This is consistent with a mechanism by which Ni²⁺ ions diffuse by moving from one octahedral coordination site to another in the melt, with the same Ni²⁺ species discharging at the cathode regardless of the SiO₂ concentration in the melt.     

The contribution of humic substances to the acidity of colored natural waters

An operationally defined carboxyl content of humic substances extracted from rivers, streams, lakes, wetlands, and groundwaters throughout the United States and Canada is reported. Despite the diversity of the samples, only small variations were observed in this humic carboxyl content. The dissociation behavior of two combined fulvic/humic acid extracts was studied and it was found that the dissociation of the humics varied in a predictable manner with pH. Using a carboxyl content of 10 μeq/ mg humic organic carbon, and mass action quotient calculated from sample pH, the ionic balances of three highly colored Nova Scotia rivers were estimated.     

The weathering of a late Tertiary volcanic ash: Importance of organic solutes

The weathering of a late Tertiary volcanic ash near Jackson, Wyoming, was studied by sampling water percolating through the ash with suction lysimeters, and by examination of the associated solid phases. Soluble organic compounds derived from vegetation control the release and transport of solutes by complexing Al and Fe, and by causing low pH values. The concentrations of Na, K, Ca, and Mg, as well as those of Al and Fe correlate with the dissolved organic carbon concentrations (DOC) and follow an annual cycle with a maximum in spring. DOC concentrations averaged 5O mg C per liter, and values as high as 260 mg/l were observed. Al and Fe concentrations ranged as high as 5 mg/l. The dissolved organic matter was largely in the form of humic acids, although minor amounts of oxalate, acetate, and formate were also present. The pH of the percolating waters ranged from 4.3 to 6.5 with a mean of 5.2.During laboratory weathering experiments with the same ash in the absence of dissolved organic compounds, pH values ranged from 7.3 to 9.5, dissolved Al and Fe concentrations were below the detection limit, and there was little resemblance between the compositions of the solutions and the compositions observed in the field. Any model attempting to describe weathering in a comparable setting must incorporate biological mechanisms as the dominant controls.