An adaptive finite element model for wellbore breakout simulation

A finite element formulation is proposed and implemented for analysing the stability of excavated wells using the DiMaggio-Sandler constitutive elastoplastic model with a typical carbonate reservoir configuration. The quality of the finite element approximation is ensured by applying smooth curved elements adapted to the wellbore geometry, and h − p adaptive finite element meshes in the plastic zone. General purpose procedures are defined to transfer the elastoplastic deformation history to newly created integration points. A breakout damage criterion is proposed based on the second invariant of the deviatoric plastic deformation tensor. This damage criterion is used to apply a mesh movement algorithm to represent material collapse. The automatic successive application of the breakout damage criterion results in elliptical realistically looking geometries obtained in experiments reported in the literature.     

Assessing the effects of land cover and future climate conditions on the provision of hydrological services in a medium‐sized watershed of Portugal

The separated and combined effects of land‐cover scenarios and future climate on the provision of hydrological services were evaluated in Vez watershed, northern Portugal. Soil and Water Assessment Tool was calibrated against daily discharge, sediments and nitrates, with good agreements between model predictions and field observations. Four hypothetical land‐cover scenarios were applied under current climate conditions (eucalyptus/pine, oak, agriculture/vine and low vegetation). A statistical downscaling of four General Circulation Models, bias‐corrected with ground observations, was carried out for 2021–2040 and 2041–2060, using representative concentration pathway 4.5 scenario. Also, the combined effects of future climate conditions were evaluated under eucalyptus/pine and agriculture/vine scenario. Results for land cover revealed that eucalyptus/pine scenario reduced by 7% the annual water quantity and up to 17% in the summer period. Although climate change has only a modest effect on the reduction of the total annual discharge (?7%), the effect on the water levels during summer was more pronounced, between ?15% and ?38%. This study shows that climate change can affect the provision of hydrological services by reducing dry season flows and by increasing flood risks during the wet months. Regarding the combined effects, future climate may reduce the low flows, which can be aggravated with eucalyptus/pine scenario. In turn, peak flows and soil erosion can be offset. Future climate may increase soil erosion and nitrate concentration, which can be aggravated with agriculture scenario. Results moreover emphasize the need to consider both climate and land‐cover impacts in adaptation and land management options at the watershed scale. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Lake sedimentary processes and vegetation changes over the last 45k cal a bp in the uplands of south-eastern Amazonia

This study addresses paleoclimate influences in a southern Amazonia ecotone based on multiproxy records from lakes of the Carajás region during the last 45k cal a bp. Wet and cool environmental conditions marked the initial deposition in shallow depressions with detrital sediments and high weathering rates until 40k cal a bp. Concomitantly, forest and C3 canga plants, along with cool-adapted taxa, developed; however, short drier episodes enabled expansion of C4 plants and diagenetic formation of siderite. A massive event of siderite formation occurred approximately 30k cal a bp under strong drier conditions. Afterwards, wet and cool environmental conditions returned and persisted until the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). The LGM was marked by lake-level lowstands and subaerial exposure. The transition from the LGM to the Holocene is marked by the onset of oscillations in temperature and humidity, with an expansion of forest and canga plants. Cool taxa were present for the last time in the Carajás region ~ 9.5–9k cal a bp. After 10k cal a bp , shallow lakes became upland swamps due to natural infilling processes, but the current vegetation types and structures of the plateaus were acquired only after 3k cal a bp under wetter climatic conditions.     

Early‐middle Holocene land snail shell stable isotope record from Grotta di Latronico 3 (southern Italy)

This paper compares stable isotope (δ¹⁸O and δ¹³C) records of early–middle Holocene land snail shells from the archaeological deposits of Grotta di Latronico 3 (LTR3; southern Italy) with modern shell isotopic data. No substantial interspecific variability was observed in shell δ¹⁸O (δ¹⁸Os) of modern specimens (Pomatias elegans, Cornu aspersum, Eobania vermiculata, Helix ligata and Marmorana fuscolabiata). In contrast, interspecific shell δ¹³C (δ¹³Cs) variability was significant, probably due to different feeding behaviour among species. The δ¹⁸Os values of living land snails suggest that species hibernate for a long period during colder months, so that the signal of ¹⁸O‐depleted winter rainfall in their δ¹⁸Os is lost. This suggests that δ¹⁸Os and δ¹³Cs values of Pomatias elegans from this archaeological succession provide valuable clues for seasonal (spring–autumn) climatic conditions during the early–middle Holocene. The δ¹⁸Os values of fossil specimens are significantly lower than in modern shells and in agreement with other palaeoclimatic records, suggesting a substantial increase of precipitation and/or persistent changes in air mass source trajectories over this region between ca. 8.8 cal ka BP and 6.2–6.7 ka ago. The δ¹³Cs trend suggests a transition from a slightly ¹³C‐enriched to a ¹³C‐depleted diet between early and middle Holocene compared to present conditions. We postulate that this δ¹³Cs trend might reflect changes in the C3 vegetation community, potentially combined with other environmental factors such as regional moisture increase and the progressive decrease of atmospheric CO₂ concentration. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Estimation of transit trip production using Factorial Kriging with External Drift: an aggregated data case study

Studies in transportation planning routinely use data in which location attributes are an important source of information. Thus, using spatial attributes in urban travel forecasting models seems reasonable. The main objective of this paper is to estimate transit trip production using Factorial Kriging with External Drift (FKED) through an aggregated data case study of Traffic Analysis Zones in São Paulo city, Brazil. The method consists of a sequential application of Principal Components Analysis (PCA) and Kriging with External Drift (KED). The traditional Linear Regression (LR) model was adopted with the aim of validating the proposed method. The results show that PCA summarizes and combines 23 socioeconomic variables using 4 components. The first component is introduced in KED, as secondary information, to estimate transit trip production by public transport in geographic coordinates where there is no prior knowledge of the values. Cross-validation for the FKED model presented high values of the correlation coefficient between estimated and observed values. Moreover, low error values were observed. The accuracy of the LR model was similar to FKED. However, the proposed method is able to map the transit trip production in several geographical coordinates of non-sampled values.     

Ontogenic variation and effect of collection procedure on leaf biomechanical properties of Mediterranean seagrass Posidonia oceanica (L.) Delile

Leaf mechanical traits are important to understand how aquatic plants fracture and deform when subjected to abiotic (currents or waves) or biotic (herbivory attack) mechanical forces. The likely occurrence of variation during leaf ontogeny in these traits may thus have implications for hydrodynamic performance and vulnerability to herbivory damage, and may be associated with changes in morphologic and chemical traits. Seagrasses, marine flowering plants, consist of shoot bundles holding several leaves with different developmental stages, in which outer older leaves protect inner younger leaves. In this study we examined the long‐lived seagrass Posidonia oceanica to determine ontogenic variation in mechanical traits across leaf position within a shoot, representing different developmental stages. Moreover, we investigated whether or not the collection procedure (classical uprooted shoot versus non‐destructive shoot method: cutting the shoot without a portion of rhizome) and time span after collection influence mechanical measurements. Neither collection procedure nor time elapsed within 48 h of collection affected measurements of leaf biomechanical traits when seagrass shoots were kept moist in dark cool conditions. Ontogenic variation in mechanical traits in P. oceanica leaves over intermediate and adult developmental stages was observed: leaves weakened and lost stiffness with aging, while mid‐aged leaves (the longest and thickest ones) were able to withstand higher breaking forces. In addition, younger leaves had higher nitrogen content and lower fiber content than older leaves. The observed patterns may explain fine‐scale within‐shoot ecological processes of leaves at different developmental stages, such as leaf shedding and herbivory consumption in P. oceanica.