Growth and mortality of juvenile winter flounder in two New England estuaries

A length-based model for calculating growth and mortality of juvenile winter flounder (Pseudopleuronectes americanus) populations has been developed. This model is based on work by Sullivan et al. (1990) and incorporates the von Bertalanffy growth equation, including stochasticity in growth, and a mortality rate that decreases exponentially with size. The length-based model was fit to observed size-frequency distributions, and model likelihood profiles were generated to produce 95% confidence intervals about parameter estimates. We analyzed size-frequency distributions of 3 to 15 cm juvenile winter flounder, collected with a 1-m beam trawl, at monthly intervals from June to October during 1993 and 1994. Growth rates were higher at a contaminated site, New Haven Harbor, than at a clean site, the Connecticut River estuary, however, the parameter estimates had overlapping 95% confidence intervals. Mortality rates were similar at the two sites.     

A Generic Closed-Loop Contaminant Treatment System Package for MODFLOW 6

We present a contaminant treatment system (CTS) package for MODFLOW 6 that facilitates the simulation of pump-and-treat systems for groundwater remediation. Using the “nonintrusive” MODFLOW 6 application programming interface (API) capability, the CTS package can balance flows between extraction and injection wells within the outer flow solution loop and applies blended concentration/mass treatment efficiency within the outer transport solution loop. The former can be important when the requested extraction rate cannot be satisfied by the current simulated groundwater system conditions, while the latter can be important for simulating incomplete/imperfect treatment schemes. Furthermore, the CTS package allows users to temporally vary all aspects of a simulated CTS system, including the configuration and location of injection and extraction wells, and the CTS efficiency. This flexibility combined with the API-based implementation provide a generic and general CTS package that can be applied across the wide range of MODFLOW 6 simulation options and that evolves in step with MODFLOW 6 code modifications and advancements without needing to update the CTS package itself.     

Towards Improved Remedial Outcomes in Categorical Aquifers with an Iterative Ensemble Smoother

Categorical parameter distributions consisting of geologic facies with distinct properties, for example, high-permeability channels embedded in a low-permeability matrix, are common at contaminated sites. At these sites, low-permeability facies store solute mass, acting as secondary sources to higher-permeability facies, sustaining concentrations for decades while increasing risk and cleanup costs. Parameter estimation is difficult in such systems because the discontinuities in the parameter space hinder the inverse problem. This paper presents a novel approach based on Traveling Pilot Points (TRIPS) and an iterative ensemble smoother (IES) to solve the categorical inverse problem. Groundwater flow and solute transport in a hypothetical aquifer with a categorical parameter distribution are simulated using MODFLOW 6. Heads and concentrations are recorded at multiple monitoring locations. IES is used to generate posterior ensembles assuming a TRIPS prior and an approximate multi-Gaussian prior. The ensembles are used to predict solute concentrations and mass into the future. The evaluation also includes an assessment of how the number of measurements and the choice of the geological prior determine the characteristics of the posterior ensemble and the resulting predictions. The results indicate that IES was able to efficiently sample the posterior distribution and showed that even with an approximate geological prior, a high degree of parameterization and history matching could lead to parameter ensembles that can be useful for making certain types of predictions (heads, concentrations). However, the approximate geological prior was insufficient for predicting mass. The analysis demonstrates how decision-makers can quantify uncertainty and make informed decisions with an ensemble-based approach.     

Evaluating Subsurface Parameterization to Simulate Hyporheic Exchange: The Steinlach River Test Site

Hyporheic exchange is the interaction of river water and groundwater, and is difficult to predict. One of the largest contributions to predictive uncertainty for hyporheic exchange has been attributed to the representation of heterogeneous subsurface properties. Our study evaluates the trade-offs between intrinsic (irreducible) and epistemic (reducible) model errors when choosing between homogeneous and highly complex subsurface parameter structures. We modeled the Steinlach River Test Site in Southwest Germany using a fully coupled surface water-groundwater model to simulate hyporheic exchange and to assess the predictive errors and uncertainties of transit time distributions. A highly parameterized model was built, treated as a “virtual reality” and used as a reference. We found that if the parameter structure is too simple, it will be limited by intrinsic model errors. By increasing subsurface complexity through the addition of zones or heterogeneity, we can begin to exchange intrinsic for epistemic errors. Thus, the appropriate level of detail to represent the subsurface depends on the acceptable range of intrinsic structural errors for the given modeling objectives and the available site data. We found that a zonated model is capable of reproducing the transit time distributions of a more detailed model, but only if the geological structures are known. An interpolated heterogeneous parameter field (cf. pilot points) showed the best trade-offs between the two errors, indicating fitness for practical applications. Parameter fields generated by multiple-point geostatistics (MPS) produce transit time distributions with the largest uncertainties, however, these are reducible by additional hydrogeological data, particularly flux measurements.     

An Open,Object-Based Framework for Generating Anisotropy in Sedimentary Subsurface Models

The spatial distribution of hydraulic properties in the subsurface controls groundwater flow and solute transport. However, many approaches to modeling these distributions do not produce geologically realistic results and/or do not model the anisotropy of hydraulic conductivity caused by bedding structures in sedimentary deposits. We have developed a flexible object-based package for simulating hydraulic properties in the subsurface—the Hydrogeological Virtual Realities (HyVR) simulation package. This implements a hierarchical modeling framework that takes into account geological rules about stratigraphic bounding surfaces and the geometry of specific sedimentary structures to generate realistic aquifer models, including full hydraulic-conductivity tensors. The HyVR simulation package can create outputs suitable for standard groundwater modeling tools (e.g., MODFLOW), is written in Python, an open-source programming language, and is openly available at an online repository. This paper presents an overview of the underlying modeling principles and computational methods, as well as an example simulation based on the Macrodispersion Experiment site in Columbus, Mississippi. Our simulation package can currently simulate porous media that mimic geological conceptual models in fluvial depositional environments, and that include fine-scale heterogeneity in distributed hydraulic parameter fields. The simulation results allow qualitative geological conceptual models to be converted into digital subsurface models that can be used in quantitative numerical flow-and-transport simulations, with the aim of improving our understanding of the influence of geological realism on groundwater flow and solute transport.     

The role of antecedent groundwater heads in controlling transient aquifer storage and flood peak attenuation in karst watersheds

Transient storage of floodwaters in aquifers is known to attenuate peak flows in rivers and drive subsurface dissolution. Transient aquifer storage could be enhanced in watersheds overlying karst aquifers where caves facilitate surface and groundwater exchange. Few studies, however, have examined controls on, or magnitudes of, transient aquifer storage or flood peak attenuation in karstic watersheds. Here we evaluate flood peak attenuation with multiple linear regression analyses of 10 years of river and groundwater data from the Suwannee River, which flows over the karstic upper Floridan aquifer in north-central Florida and experiences frequent flooding. Regressions show antecedent river stage exerts the dominant control on magnitudes of transient aquifer storage, with recharge and time to peak having secondary controls. Specifically, low antecedent stages result in larger magnitudes of transient aquifer storage and thus greater flood attenuation than conditions of elevated antecedent stage. These findings suggest subsurface weathering, including cave formation and enlargement, caused by transient aquifer storage could occur on a more frequent basis in aquifers where groundwater table elevation is lowered due to anthropogenic or climatic influences. Our work also shows that measures of groundwater table elevation prior to an event could be used to improve predictive flood models. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Mineral chemical provenance of Neolithic pitchstone artefacts from Ballygalley,County Antrim,Northern Ireland

A large number of pitchstone fragments and artefacts have recently been discovered at a Neolithic settlement site in Ballygalley, Co. Antrim, Northern Ireland. They consist predominantly of flakes and un‐reworked lumps and cores, with only one complete tool being found. Since no sources of workable pitchstone exist in Ireland, the source must have been the abundant pitchstone volcanic rocks found on the Hebridean Islands of northwest Scotland. The composition of the glass from a number of artefacts is highly siliceous, indicating that they were derived from pitchstones on the Island of Arran; pitchstones from all other Scottish locations are less silica‐rich. In addition, analysis of pyroxene and amphibole microcrystallites within the pitchstone suggests that the Corriegills area of Arran is the most likely source of the Ballygalley artefacts, although the precise outcrop has proved elusive. These finds, and others across Ireland, show that raw materials were being transported and probably traded over considerable distances despite there being suitable alternative sources of material for making tools (flint, etc.) available in the local area. This suggests that the pitchstone had a very specialist use. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

RegCM3区域气候模式对中国气候的模拟

使用RegCM3区域气候模式嵌套ERA40再分析资料,对东亚地区进行了15 a（1987-2001年）时间长度的数值积分试验。结果表明：模式可较好地模拟中国地面气温的分布和季节变化,但存在系统性的冷偏差;对降水的变化模拟也较好,但其地理分布模拟存在一定偏差。     

Decadal Changes in Water Quality and Net Productivity of a Shallow Danish Estuary Following Significant Nutrient Reductions

We utilized an extensive data set (1977–2013) from a water quality monitoring program to investigate the recovery of a Danish estuary following large reductions in total phosphorus (TP) and total nitrogen (TN) loading. Monthly rates of net transport and biogeochemical transformation of dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) and phosphorus (DIP) were computed in two basins of the estuary using a box model approach, and oxygen-based rates of net ecosystem production (NEP) were determined. Since 1990, nutrient loading was reduced by 58 % for nitrogen and 80 % for phosphorus, causing significant decreases in DIN (60 %) and DIP (85 %) concentrations. Reductions in nutrient loadings and concentrations reduced annual chlorophyll levels by 50 % in the inner estuary and improved Secchi depth by approximately 1 m during the same period, particularly in the summer period. In the outer, deeper region of the estuary trends in water quality was less evident. Improvements in the inner estuary were strongly coupled to declines in DIN. Thresholds of DIN and DIP concentrations limiting phytoplankton growth indicated that both regions of the estuary were nitrogen limited. NEP rates indicated the development of more net autotrophic conditions over time that were likely associated with higher benthic primary production stimulated by improved light conditions. Box model computations revealed a modest reduction in summer net production of DIP over time, despite the persistence of elevated fluxes for several years after external loads were reduced. Since the mid-1990s, nutrient loading and transformation were stable while nutrient concentrations continued to decline and water quality improved in the inner estuary. The oligotrophication trajectory involved an initial fast transformation and modest retention of nutrients followed by a gradual decline in the rate of improvement towards a new stable condition.     

A service-based framework for the OAIS model for earth science data management

The Consultative Committee for Space Data Systems (CCSDS), in 2002, released their first version of a Reference Model for an Open Archival Information System (OAIS). In 2003, the model was adopted by the International Standards Organization (ISO) as ISO 14721:2003. The CCSDS document was updated in 2012 with additional focus on verifying the authenticity of data and developing concepts of access rights and a security model. The OAIS model is the basis of research data management systems across institutions and disciplines around the world. The Organization for the Advancement of Structured Information Standards (OASIS), in 2006, released their first version of a Reference Model for Service Oriented Architecture (SOA). OASIS defines the SOA as “a paradigm for organizing and utilizing distributed capabilities that may be under the control of different ownership domains.” Systems designed around the SOA model benefit from improved scalability, flexibility, and agility. This paper applies the SOA model to the OAIS repository to describe how repositories can be implemented and extended through the use of services that may be internal or external to the host institution, including the consumption of network- or cloud-based services and resources. We use the Service Oriented Architecture (SOA) design paradigm to describe a set of potential extensions to OAIS Reference Model: purpose and justification for each extension, where and how each extension connects to the model, and an example of a specific service that meets the purpose.