Predicting the impacts of global warming on wildland fire

Simulations of impacts of a double-CO₂ climate with the Changed Climate Fire Modeling System in Northern California consistently projected increases in area burned and in the frequency of escaped fires compared with simulations of the present climate. However, the magnitude of those increases was strongly influenced by vegetation type, choice of atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) scenario, and choice of climatic forcing variables. The greatest projected increase in fire severity occurred in grasslands, using the Princeton Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory GCM, with wind speed, temperature, humidity and precipitation as driving variables.     

The effect of aqueous metal-chlorophenolate complexation on contaminant transport in groundwater systems

Aqueous metals and chlorophenols are common co-contaminants of groundwater systems. However, the importance of aqueous metal-chlorophenolate complexation cannot be accurately assessed because the stability constants for environmentally important aqueous metal-phenolate and metal-chlorophenolate complexes have not been measured. In order to determine the role these complexes play in contaminant transport, this study applies a correlation technique to the limited data that do exist to estimate the stabilities of metal-chlorophenolate complexes of environmental interest. Speciation calculations that are based on these estimated stability constants indicate that aqueous metal-chlorophenolate complexation may significantly affect both aqueous metal and dissolved chlorophenolate species distributions. Therefore, aqueous metal-chlorophenolate complexation may affect the extent of adsorption of both metals and chlorophenolates onto mineral surfaces. In addition, aqueous complexation may significantly enhance dissolution of aquifer aluminosilicate minerals. This study suggests that aqueous complexation between metals and chlorophenolates can significantly affect the mobility of metal and phenolic contaminants.     

A fracture-mechanical cellular automaton model of seismicity

We present a cellular automaton model which simulates the process of seismogenesis using rules for evolution which are derived from the field of fracture mechanics, and include an interplay of positive and negative feedbacks. We describe the implementation of this model, and its analysis, in a massively parallel environment using the Connection Machine. Starting from a lattice with a fractal distribution of fracture toughnesses, theb value evolves in a way which closely mimics both the evolutions ofb value observed in the laboratory and derived from earthquake catalogues, reaching a broad and irregular maximum in the period preceding a major event, and declining rapidly during catastrophic failure. We conclude that the processes modelled are a reasonable representation of those occurring in Nature, and that the cellular automaton paradigm is a valuable way of simulating these processes on a large scale in an economical manner.     

Risk-Based Decision-Support Groundwater Modeling for the Lower San Antonio River Basin,Texas, USA

A numerical surface-water/groundwater model was developed for the lower San Antonio River Basin to evaluate the responses of low base flows and groundwater levels within the basin under conditions of reduced recharge and increased groundwater withdrawals. Batch data assimilation through history matching used a simulation of historical conditions (2006-2013); this process included history-matching to groundwater levels and base-flow estimates at several gages, and was completed in a high-dimensional (highly parameterized) framework. The model was developed in an uncertainty framework such that parameters, observations, and scenarios of interest are envisioned stochastically as distributions of potential values. Results indicate that groundwater contributions to surface water during periods of low flow may be reduced from 6% to 25% with a corresponding 25% reduction in recharge and a 25% increase in groundwater pumping over an 8-year planning period. Furthermore, results indicate groundwater-level reductions in some hydrostratigraphic units are more likely than in other hydrostratigraphic units over an 8-year period under drought conditions with the higher groundwater withdrawal scenario.     

RegCM3对东亚环流和中国气候模拟能力的检验

使用RegCM3区域气候模式,嵌套ERA40再分析资料,对东亚地区进行了15年（1987～2001年）时间长度的数值积分试验,分析了模式对东亚平均环流及中国地区气温和降水的模拟。结果表明,模式对东亚平均环流的特征和中国地区降水、地面气温的年、季地理分布和季节变化特征均具有一定的模拟能力,对气温和降水年际变率的模拟也较好。此外模式模拟在测站稀少地区,可以提供局地如降水分布更可靠的信息。模式对气温的模拟存在1-3℃的系统性冷偏差;对中国地区降水地理分布的模拟也存在一定偏差,如对年平均降水的模拟中,降水最大值位置与观测有一定差距,特别是对冬季降水中心的模拟存在较大偏差。模式模拟的夏季降水,在中国北方地区总体偏大100-200 mm,南方总体偏小100-200 mm。模式对地面气温的模拟效果好于降水。     

The birthrate of magnetars

Magnetars, neutron stars with ultrastrong magnetic fields  ( B ∼ 10¹⁴−10¹⁵G)  , manifest their exotic nature in the form of soft gamma-ray repeaters and anomalous X-ray pulsars. This study estimates the birthrate of magnetars to be ∼0.22 per century with a Galactic population comprising ∼17 objects. A population synthesis was carried out based on the five anomalous X-ray pulsars detected in the ROSAT All Sky Survey by comparing their number to that of massive OB stars in a well-defined volume. Additionally, the group of seven X-ray dim isolated neutron stars detected in the same survey were found to have a birthrate of ∼2 per century with a Galactic population of ∼22 000 objects.