Pseudo-global warming projections of extreme wave storms in complex coastal regions: the case of the Adriatic Sea

This numerical work aims to better understand the behavior of extreme Adriatic Sea wave storms under projected climate change. In this spirit, 36 characteristic events—22 bora and 14 sirocco storms occurring between 1979 and 2019, were selected and ran in evaluation mode in order to estimate the skill of the kilometer-scale Adriatic Sea and Coast (AdriSC) modelling suite used in this study and to provide baseline conditions for the climate change impact. The pseudo-global warming (PGW) methodology—which imposes an additional climatological change to the forcing used in the evaluation simulations, was implemented, for the very first time, for a coupled ocean–wave–atmosphere model and used to assess the behavior of the selected storms under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 greenhouse gas projections. The findings of this experiment are that, on the one hand, the AdriSC model is found capable of reproducing both the Adriatic waves associated with the 36 storms and the northern Adriatic surges occurring during the sirocco events and, on the other hand, the significant wave heights and peak periods are likely to decrease during all future extreme events but most particularly during bora storms. The northern Adriatic storm surges are in consequence also likely to decrease during sirocco events. As it was previously demonstrated that the Adriatic extreme wind-wave events are likely to be less intense in a future warmer climate, this study also proved the validity of applying the PGW methodology to coupled ocean–wave–atmosphere models at the coastal and nearshore scales.

     

Estimating Sensible and Latent Heat Fluxes over an Inland Water Body Using Optical and Microwave Scintillometers

Boundary-Layer Meteorology - Observations of turbulent heat fluxes over inland water bodies are scarce despite being critical to adequate lake parametrization for numerical weather forecast and...     

Distributing the bigeye conservation burden in the western and central pacific fisheries

The Western and Central Pacific Ocean is home to the world's most productive tuna fisheries, with the majority of tuna catches occurring inside the exclusive economic zones (EEZs) of the region's developing coastal States. It is important that these fisheries are managed effectively throughout their range, both within and between EEZs and on the high seas. Unrestrained exploitation in a particular EEZ or on the high seas has the potential to significantly impact on catches elsewhere with potentially devastating consequences for developing coastal States, some of which have few alternate resources. The Western and Central Pacific Fisheries Commission (WCPFC) was established in 2004 to manage the region's highly migratory tuna fisheries. However, the WCPFC has since repeatedly failed to adopt conservation and management measures that are sufficient to meet the WCPFC's conservation and sustainable use objectives. This paper analyses catch data from the WCPFC and suggests that the weak position of bigeye (in a strategic political context), the unwillingness of members to compromise their interests and the lack of a transparent framework for distributing the burden of conservation are key factors in the WCPFC's failure to adopt sufficiently strong conservation and management measures.     

A New Interlaboratory Characterisation of Silicon,Rare Earth Elements and Twenty‐Two Other Trace Element Concentrations in the Natural River Water Certified Reference Material SLRS‐6 (NRC‐CNRC)

The natural river water reference material SLRS‐6 (NRC‐CNRC) is the newest batch of a quality control material routinely used in many international environmental laboratories. This work presents a nine‐laboratory compilation of measurements of major and trace element concentrations and their related uncertainties, unavailable in the NRC‐CNRC certificate (B, Cs, Li, Ga, Ge, Hf, Nb, P, Rb, Rh, Re, S, Sc, Se, Si, Sn, Th, Ti, Tl, W, Y, Y, Zr and REEs). Measurements were mostly made using inductively coupled plasma‐mass spectrometry. The results are compared with equivalent data for the last batch of the material, SLRS‐5, measured simultaneously with SLRS‐6 in this study. In general, very low concentrations, close to the quantification limits, were found in the new batch. The Sr isotopic ratio is also reported.     

Quantitative assessment on basin-scale hydrological services of wetlands

Despite recognizing the importance of hydrological function of wetlands, basin-scale wetlands services have rarely been investigated. The PHYSITEL/HYDROTEL modelling platform was used to quantitatively assess the impact of wetlands on quickflow and baseflow with paired simulation scenarios in Duobukuli River Basin, namely with wetlands and without wetlands.Simulation results showed that wetlands exert significant impact on basin hydrological processes by decreasing streamflow and altering streamflow regime(magnitude, frequency, duration and time of flow events). The intensity(significant or not) of wetlands influences on quickflow had daily, monthly and annual variation. Wetlands significantly attenuated quickflow during flood season while slightly support daily, monthly and annual baseflow. The average quickflow attenuation and baseflow support of wetlands were 5.89% and 0.83%, respectively. Although the intensity and effect(mitigation or augment) of wetlands on streamflow temporally varied at daily, monthly, seasonal and annual scales, wetland overall mitigated quickflow and augment baseflow in Duobukuli River Basin. Our results could provide insights for future decision-making for rehabilitation and conservation of wetlands as well as integrated basin water resources management.     

Source characterisation by mixing long-running tsunami wave numerical simulations and historical observations within a metamodel-aided ABC setting

Uncertainty related to the source parameters of earthquake can largely impact the tsunami-induced wave characteristics, especially in the case of near-field tsunami source. The combination of numerical simulations and historical eyewitness accounts can be used to better constrain those uncertainties. In the present study, we propose a Bayesian procedure to infer (i.e. learn) the probability distribution of the source parameters of the earthquake. The strategy is based on the combination of: (1) kriging-based metamodelling techniques to overcome the high computation time cost of the numerical simulator; and (2) Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) procedure to perform the Bayesian inference. The procedure is applied to the Ligurian (North West of Italy) 1887 tsunami case, for which tsunami-induced sea surface elevations at the coast have been reported at four locations, namely Marseille, Imperia, Diano-Marina and Genoa. The kriging metamodels are trained using only 300 long-running numerical simulations that were performed using the FUNWAVE-TVD code. Contrary to recent inversion exercises that can benefit from current modern observation networks (like tide gauges, sea bottom pressure gauges, GPS-mounted buoys), the case of historical tsunami like Liguria is complicated by the imprecision and scarcity of the observations: this is accounted for by conducting the combined ABC-kriging procedure a large number of times (i.e. 1000); each time a new set of observations being randomly generated to account for this observational error. The combined analysis of the inference results and of the observation uncertainty reveals that: (1) the coseismic slip is the most important source parameter with a very peaky density distribution around low values ranging from 0.3 to 0.6 m; (2) The fault width has a peaky density distribution around low values ranging from 10 to 12 km; (3) The rake and azimuth distribution only slightly deviate from the uniform prior, hence indicating a low influence of those parameters; (4) The bi-modal distribution of the dip is also evidenced.     

The loess sequence of Dolní Věstonice,Czech Republic: A new OSL‐based chronology of the Last Climatic Cycle

The Dolní Věstonice loess section in the Czech Republic is well known for its high‐resolution loess–palaeosol sequence of the last interglacial–glacial climatic cycle (Upper Pleistocene). The loess section is situated in a climatic transition zone between oceanic and continental climates and is therefore of great value in reconstructing past regional climate conditions and their interaction with climate systems, in particular that of the North Atlantic. Based on a combination of optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) ages, stratigraphic field observations and magnetic susceptibility measurements, a chrono‐climatic interpretation of the Dolní Věstonice loess section is presented. To establish a reliable Upper Pleistocene chronology, a quartz OSL approach was applied for equivalent dose (D_e) determination. Monomineralic quartz extracts of three distinct grain sizes, fine (4–11 μm), middle (38–63 μm) and coarse (90–200 μm), were used and compared. Within error limits, the calculated OSL ages are the same for the different grain sizes, and the OSL ages are in stratigraphic order. The established OSL chronology is in agreement with a Weichselian litho‐ and pedostratigraphy. The Dolní Věstonice loess section is characterized by four pedosedimentary subsequences. At the base of the profile, subsequence I is characterized by a distinct Early Glacial soil complex, OSL‐dated to c. 110 to 70 ka, representing one of the most complete records of environmental change in the European loess belt. Subsequence II is allocated to the Lower Pleniglacial and is characterized by laminated sandy loess. Middle Pleniglacial subsequence III is represented by a brown soil complex, and is followed by the uppermost subsequence IV, characterized by a thick body of laminated sandy loess, indicating strong wind activity and a high sedimentation rate of more than ～1 mm a^?1 during the Upper Pleniglacial. According to the OSL chronology, as well as to the sedimentological and palaeopedological investigations, it is likely that the sequence at Dolní Věstonice has recorded most of the climatic events expressed in the NGRIP δ¹⁸O reference record between 110 and 70 ka.     

Structural controls on mechanical compaction within sandstones: An example from the Apsheron Peninsula,Azerbaijan

Mechanical compaction of sand-rich reservoirs usually occurs during shallow burial and involves the rearrangement of framework grains and the ductile deformation of soft lithoclasts. The reservoir quality (porosity and permeability) of some Neogene sandstones of the South Caspian Basin has, however, been dramatically reduced by mechanical compaction involving extensive grain-fracturing (i.e. porosity collapse). These sandstones were probably susceptible to pervasive grain-fracturing because they were buried rapidly and experienced compressional deformation prior to reaching 80 °C. Consequently, they did not undergo quartz cementation and were therefore exposed to high stresses while they were extremely weak. Grain-size and structural position are also important controls on the distribution of grain fracturing in the onshore analogue in the Apsheron Peninsula. Microstructural analysis confirms that susceptibility to distributed grain-fracturing increases with increasing grain-size. Structural position has also an important impact on the distribution of porosity collapse. In particular, sandstones within the hinges of folded sections have undergone much more extensive grain-fracturing than within the surrounding area; the increased stresses in this structural position have enhanced distributed grain-fracturing and subsequent deformation band development.