Analysis of clustering and selection algorithms for the study of multivariate wave climate

Recent wave reanalysis databases require the application of techniques capable of managing huge amounts of information. In this paper, several clustering and selection algorithms: K-Means (KMA), self-organizing maps (SOM) and Maximum Dissimilarity (MDA) have been applied to analyze trivariate hourly time series of met-ocean parameters (significant wave height, mean period, and mean wave direction). A methodology has been developed to apply the aforementioned techniques to wave climate analysis, which implies data pre-processing and slight modifications in the algorithms. Results show that: a) the SOM classifies the wave climate in the relevant “wave types” projected in a bidimensional lattice, providing an easy visualization and probabilistic multidimensional analysis; b) the KMA technique correctly represents the average wave climate and can be used in several coastal applications such as longshore drift or harbor agitation; c) the MDA algorithm allows selecting a representative subset of the wave climate diversity quite suitable to be implemented in a nearshore propagation methodology.     

Earthquake damage assessment for deterministic scenarios in Iquique,Chile

Risk evaluation and loss analysis is key in foreseeing the impact of disasters caused by natural hazards and may contribute effectively in improving resilience in a community through the pre-evaluation of preparedness and mitigation actions. The pilot study presented herein is for the Chilean city of Iquique, which is located at the core of a seismic gap that extends from south Perú to north Chile, and has strategic geopolitical and economic importance for the country. The region was hit April 1, 2014, by an \(M_\mathrm{w}\) 8.2 earthquake that caused only moderate damage, but seismological evidence suggests that there is still a potential for a much larger event in the region. Therefore, a careful damage assessment study is fundamental to anticipate the possible physical, social, and economic consequences that Iquique may face in the future. In this work, the HAZUS-MH platform was adapted and used to simulate a set of ten plausible physics-based future seismic scenarios with magnitudes ranging from \(M_\mathrm{w}\) 8.40 to \(M_\mathrm{w}\) 8.98, which were proposed based on an analysis of interplate locking and the residual slip potential remaining after the April 1, 2014, earthquake. Successful application of this damage assessment methodology relies on the construction of a comprehensive exposure model that takes into account regional features and a good characterization of the physical vulnerabilities. For Iquique, a large body of public and local data was used to develop a detailed inventory of physical and social assets including an aggregated building count, demographics, and essential facilities. To characterize the response of the built environment to seismic demand, appropriate HAZUS fragility curves were applied, and outcomes were validated against the damage observed in the 2014 earthquake. After satisfactory testing, a deterministic earthquake damage assessment study was carried out for the collection of predictive scenarios aimed to estimate their expected impacts. This analysis provides data for future evaluations of different physical and social mitigation measures for the city.     

Selection criteria for linear regression models to estimate individual tree biomasses in the Atlantic Rain Forest,Brazil

Background

Biomass models are useful for several purposes, especially for quantifying carbon stocks and dynamics in forests. Selecting appropriate equations from a fitted model is a process which can involves several criteria, some widely used and others used to a lesser extent. This study analyzes six selection criteria for models fitted to six sets of individual biomass collected from woody indigenous species of the Tropical Atlantic Rain Forest in Brazil. Six models were examined and the respective fitted equations evaluated by the residual sum of squares, adjusted coefficient of determination, absolute and relative estimates of the standard error of estimate, and Akaike and Schwartz (Bayesian) information criteria. The aim of this study was to analyze the numeric behavior of these model selection criteria and discuss the ease of interpretation of them. The importance of residual analysis in model selection is stressed.

Results

The adjusted coefficient of determination (\( R^{2}_{adj.} \)) and the standard error of estimate in percentage (Syx%) are relative model selection criteria and are not affected by sample size and scale of the response variable. The sum of squared residuals (SSR), the absolute standard error of estimate (Syx), the Akaike information criterion and the Schwartz information criterion, in turn, depend on these quantities. The best fit model was always the same within a given data set regardless the model selection criteria considered (except for SSR in two cases), indicating they tend to converge to a common result. However, such criteria are not always closely related across different data sets. General model selection criteria are indicative of the average goodness of fit, but do not capture bias and outlier effects. Graphical residual analysis is a useful tool to this detection and must always be used in model selection.

Conclusions

It is concluded that the criteria for model selection tend to lead to a common result, regardless their mathematical formulation and statistical significance. Relative measures of goodness of fitting are easier to interpret than the absolute ones. Careful graphical residual analysis must always be used to confirm the performance of the models.

     

The molar volume of FeO–MgO–Fe2O3–Cr2O3–Al2O3–TiO2 spinels

We define and calibrate a new model of molar volume as a function of pressure, temperature, ordering state, and composition for spinels in the supersystem (Mg, Fe²⁺)(Al, Cr, Fe³⁺)₂O₄ ? (Mg, Fe²⁺)₂TiO₄. We use 832 X-ray and neutron diffraction measurements performed on spinels at ambient and in situ high-P, T conditions to calibrate end-member equations of state and an excess volume model for this system. The effect on molar volume of cation ordering over the octahedral and tetrahedral sites is captured with linear dependence on Mg²⁺, Al³⁺, and Fe³⁺ site occupancy terms. We allow standard-state volumes and coefficients of thermal expansion of the end members to vary within their uncertainties during extraction of the mixing properties, in order to achieve the best fit. Published equations of state of the various spinel end members are analyzed to obtain optimal values of the bulk modulus and its pressure derivative, for each explicit end member. For any spinel composition in the supersystem, the model molar volume is obtained by adding excess volume and cation order-dependent terms to a linear combination of the five end-member volumes, estimated at pressure and temperature using the high-T Vinet equation of state. The preferred model has a total of 9 excess volume and order-dependent parameters and fits nearly all experiments to within 0.02 J/bar/mol, or better than 0.5 % in volume. The model is compared to the current MELTS spinel model with a demonstration of the impact of the model difference on the estimated spinel-garnet lherzolite transition pressure.     

Dynamics of inequality and growth in Europe: may spatial models solve the puzzle?

Journal of Geographical Systems - The link between income inequality and economic growth remains poorly understood. The global economic crisis challenged numerous growth studies by highlighting...     

Does the CDM discourage emission reduction targets in advanced developing countries?

Under the Kyoto Protocol, developing countries can voluntarily participate in climate change mitigation through the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), in which industrialized countries, in order to meet their mitigation commitments, can buy emission reduction credits from projects in developing countries. Before its implementation, developing-country experts opposed the CDM, arguing that it would sell-off their countries’ cheapest emission reduction options and force them to invest in more expensive measures to meet their future reduction targets. This ‘low-hanging fruit’ argument is analysed empirically by comparing marginal abatement cost curves. Emissions abatement costs and potentials for CDM projects are estimated for different technologies in eight countries, using capital budgeting tools and information from project documentation. It is found that the CDM is not yet capturing a large portion of the identified abatement potential in most countries. Although the costs of most emissions reduction opportunities grasped are below the average credit price, there are still plenty of available low-cost opportunities. Mexico and Argentina appear to use the CDM predominantly for harvesting the low-hanging fruit, whereas in the other countries more expensive projects are accessing the CDM. This evidence at first sight challenges the low-hanging fruit claim, but needs to be understood in the light of the barriers for the adoption of low-cost abatement options.     

Definition of areas of probable risk to human health posed by As and Pb in soils and ground-level dusts of the surrounding area of an abandoned As-sulfide mine in the north of Portugal: part 1

The aim of this study is to assess the potential health risk posed by As and Pb in the soils of the Pintor mine area. The site was never remediated but a residential area is being constructed in the mine land, next to the smelters, a fact that raised some concern about the probable risk posed by potentially harmful elements in the soil to the health of the residents. 132 samples were collected and analyzed by ICP-MS to determine total metal concentrations. The soluble fraction of As in the soil was obtained using 1 M NH₄ Acetate, pH 4.5. To assess the probable risk, total concentrations are compared with the soil guideline value established for the UK. Exposure through soil ingestion is probable in and around the residential area that has higher As and Pb concentrations, and therefore is classified as area with a potential health risk.     

Low-ionization galaxies and evolution in a pilot survey up to z=1

We present galactic spectroscopic data from a pencil beam of 10.75×7.5 centered on the X-ray cluster RXJ0054.0-2823 at z=0.29.We study the spectral evolution of galaxies from z=1 down to the cluster redshift in a magnitude-limited sample at R≤23,for which the statistical properties of the sample are well understood.We divide emission-line galaxies into star-forming galaxies,Low Ionization Nuclear Emission line Regions(LINERs) ,and Seyferts by using emission-line ratios of[OII],Hβ,and[OIII],and derive stella...     

The effects of meteorite impacts on the availability of bioessential elements for endolithic organisms

Abstract– Meteorite impacts, one of the most ubiquitous processes in the solar system, have the ability to destroy as well as create habitats for life. The impact process can increase the translucency and porosity of the target substrate, as well as mobilize biologically relevant elements within the substrate. For endolithic organisms, this process has important implications, especially in extreme environments where they are forced to seek refuge in the interior of rocks. Here, we show that unshocked target rocks and rocks that have experienced pressures up to about 80 GPa from the Haughton impact structure, Devon Island, Canada, possess a small, but discernible change in bulk chemistry within the major oxide analysis. However, changes in the distribution of elements did occur with increasing shock level for both the sedimentary and crystalline target. Both the crystalline and sedimentary target rocks contain significant amounts of glasses at higher shock levels (up to about 95% by volume), which would improve the availability of these elements to potential microbial endoliths as glasses are more easily dissolved by organic acids. The implication that impact events do not impoverish their capacity to serve as a “substrate” through volatilization is important with respect to analogous impact structures on Mars. After the deleterious effects of the direct meteorite impact, any microorganisms on Mars would have benefited from the input of heat, the mobilization of a possible frozen groundwater system, as well as increased translucency, porosity, and trace nutrient availability of the target substrate.