An investigation of ensemble-based assimilation of satellite altimetry and tide gauge data in storm surge prediction

Cyclogenesis and long-fetched winds along the southeastern coast of South America may lead to floods in populated areas, as the Buenos Aires Province, with important economic and social impacts. A numerical model (SMARA) has already been implemented in the region to forecast storm surges. The propagation time of the surge in such extensive and shallow area allows the detection of anomalies based on observations from several hours up to the order of a day prior to the event. Here, we investigate the impact and potential benefit of storm surge level data assimilation into the SMARA model, with the objective of improving the forecast. In the experiments, the surface wind stress from an ensemble prediction system drives a storm surge model ensemble, based on the operational 2-D depth-averaged SMARA model. A 4-D Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (4D-LETKF) initializes the ensemble in a 6-h cycle, assimilating the very few tide gauge observations available along the northern coast and satellite altimeter data. The sparse coverage of the altimeters is a challenge to data assimilation; however, the 4D-LETKF evolving covariance of the ensemble perturbations provides realistic cross-track analysis increments. Improvements on the forecast ensemble mean show the potential of an effective use of the sparse satellite altimeter and tidal gauges observations in the data assimilation prototype. Furthermore, the effects of the localization scale and of the observational errors of coastal altimetry and tidal gauges in the data assimilation approach are assessed.     

The role of biogenic structures on the biogeochemical functioning of mangrove constructed wetlands sediments - A mesocosm approach

Benthic metabolism (measured as CO₂ production) and carbon oxidation pathways were evaluated in 4 mangrove mesocosms subjected daily to seawater or 60% sewage in the absence or presence of mangrove trees and biogenic structures (pneumatophores and crab burrows). Total CO₂ emission from darkened sediments devoid of biogenic structures at pristine conditions was comparable during inundation (immersion) and air exposure (emersion), although increased 2-7 times in sewage contaminated mesocosms. Biogenic structures increased low tide carbon gas emissions at contaminated (30%) and particularly pristine conditions (60%). When sewage was loaded into the mesocosms under unvegetated and planted conditions, iron reduction was substituted by sulfate reduction and contribution of aerobic respiration to total metabolism remained above 50%. Our results clearly show impacts of sewage on the partitioning of electron acceptors in mangrove sediment and confirm the importance of biogenic structures for biogeochemical functioning but also on greenhouse gases emission.     

Damage seismic scenarios for Angra do Heroísmo, Azores (Portugal)

Angra do Heroísmo, located in Terceira Island, is the main town of the Central Group of Azores Archipelago and it is classified as World Heritage by Unesco. The preservation of this patrimony, located inside a seismic region, includes the implementation of a policy to protect it against earthquakes. The development of credible damage scenarios could help this objective, as they can be used in prevention measures to minimize the impact of future earthquakes. Two methods were used for seismic damage estimation: the capacity spectrum method and a new method, based on the direct response of a 1D non-linear oscillator to simulate the building seismic performance. Both methods seem to overestimate the damages for the near sources, but this could be due to the empirical model used to estimate the input ground motion. Comparison with the damage observed after the January 1st, 1980 earthquake show a large discrepancy with an underestimation bias, which can be explained, mainly, by the difference of building performance and on the plausible hypothesis of 2D site effects.     

Ionospheric Scintillation and Dynamics of Fresnel-Scale Irregularities in the Inner Region of the Equatorial Ionization Anomaly

This paper reports differences in the occurrence statistics of global positioning system (GPS) L-band scintillations at observational sites located in the inner regions of the northern and southern crests of the equatorial ionization anomaly. Ground-based GPS data acquired at the closed magnetically aligned stations of Manaus (3.1°S; 59.9°W; dip lat. 6.2°N) and Cuiabá (15.5°S; 56.1°W; dip. lat. 6.2°S), Brazil, from December 2001 to February 2007 are used in the analysis. The drift dynamics of Fresnel-scale ionospheric irregularities at the southern station of Cuiabá are also investigated. Only geomagnetically quiet days with the sum of daily Kp < 24 were used in the analysis statistics and in the irregularity drift studies. The results reveal a clear dependence of the scintillation occurrence with the solar activity, but there exists an asymmetry in the percentage of scintillation occurrence between the two stations throughout the period analyzed. The nocturnal occurrence of the scintillations over Cuiabá is predominantly larger than over Manaus, but this scenario seems to change with the decline in the solar activity (mainly during local post-midnight hours). A broad minimum and maximum in the scintillation occurrence appears to occur over both the stations, respectively, during the June solstice (winter) and December solstice (summer) months. The dynamics of the Fresnel-scale irregularities, as investigated from the estimations of the mean zonal drift velocities, reveals that the amplitude of the eastward drifts tends to reduce with the decline in the solar activity. The magnitude of the zonal drift velocities during the December solstice months is larger than during the equinoxes, with the differences being more pronounced at solar maximum years. Other relevant aspects of the observations, with complementary data from a low-latitude ionospheric model, are highlighted and discussed.     

The 23 April 1909 Benavente earthquake (Portugal): macroseismic field revision

The 23 April 1909 earthquake, with epicentre near Benavente (Portugal), was the largest crustal earthquake in the Iberian Peninsula during the twentieth century (M _w = 6.0). Due to its importance, several studies were developed soon after its occurrence, in Portugal and in Spain. A perusal of the different studies on the macroseismic field of this earthquake showed some discrepancies, in particular on the abnormal patterns of the isoseismal curves in Spain. Besides, a complete list of intensity data points for the event is unavailable at present. Seismic moment, focal mechanism and other earthquake parameters obtained from the instrumental records have been recently reviewed and recalculated. Revision of the macroseismic field of this earthquake poses a unique opportunity to study macroseismic propagation and local effects in central Iberian Peninsula. For this reasons, a search to collect new macroseismic data for this earthquake has been carried out, and a re-evaluation of the whole set has been performed and it is presented here. Special attention is paid to the observed low attenuation of the macroseismic effects, heterogeneous propagation and the distortion introduced by local amplifications. Results of this study indicate, in general, an overestimation of the intensity degrees previously assigned to this earthquake in Spain; also it illustrates how difficult it is to assign an intensity degree to a large town, where local effects play an important role, and confirms the low attenuation of seismic propagation inside the Iberian Peninsula from west and southwest to east and northeast.     

New friends in new places: Network formation during the migration process among Poles in the UK

This paper contributes to on-going work that seeks to understand the dynamic nature of immigrant social network formation. We explore three propositions, derived from the literature, that might be expected to characterise the ways in which migrant associational ties evolve during and immediately after arrival in their destination country. Evidence is drawn from 42 interviews conducted between January and December 2008 with predominantly Polish migrants to the UK (28) as well as domestic service providers (14). In agreement with the existing literature on immigrant social network formation we find that weak associational ties between migrants are locally dense and rapidly formed. More surprisingly, we also find that the Poles in our sample from lower socio-economic groups tended to rely heavily upon weak associational ties while higher socio-economic group Poles tended to rely on associations made through their employing institutions. This illustrates the importance of socio-economic status in framing co-ethnic migrant network formation. This is significant because we also find that weak associational ties are not unambiguously beneficial to lower socio-economic group migrants who tend to (have to be) more compromising about, and therefore more compromised by, the social ‘friendships’ that result.     

A demonstration of an affinity between pyrite and organic matter in a hydrothermal setting

One of the key-principles of the iron-sulphur world theory is to bring organic molecules close enough to interact with each other, using the surface of pyrite as a substrate in a hydrothermal setting. The present paper explores the relationship of pyrite and organic matter in a hydrothermal setting from the geological record; in hydrothermal calcite veins from Carboniferous limestones in central Ireland. Here, the organic matter is accumulated as coatings around, and through, pyrite grains. Most of the pyrite grains are euhedral-subhedral crystals, ranging in size from ca 0.1-0.5 mm in diameter, and they are scattered throughout the matrix of the vein calcite. The organic matter was deposited from a hydrothermal fluid at a temperature of at least 200°C, and gives a Raman signature of disordered carbon. This study points to an example from a hydrothermal setting in the geological record, demonstrating that pyrite can have a high potential for the concentration and accumulation of organic materials.     

Web-GIS tool for the management of rural land markets

Land abandonment and stagnation of rural markets in the last few years have become one of the main concerns of rural administrations. The use of Web and GIS (Geographic Information System) technologies can help to mitigate the effects of these problems. This paper pro-poses a novel Web-GIS tool with spatial capabilities for the dynamization of rural land markets by encouraging the transfer of land from owners to farmers through the leasing of plots. The system, based on open source software, offers information about the properties, their environment and their owners. It uses standards for handling the geographic information and for communicating with external data sources. This system was used as the basis for the development of SITEGAL, the tool for the management of the Land Bank of Galicia (www.bantegal.com/sitegal). SITEGAL has been operational since 2007 obtaining benefits for both administration and users (farmers and land owners), and promoting the e-Government.