Uncertainty assessment in quantitative rockfall risk assessment

This study shows a quantitative rockfall risk assessment (QRA) for a slope of the Feifeng Mountain (China), including an explicit assessment of the uncertainties. For rockfall risk analysis, the annual probability of occurrence, reach probability, temporal–spatial probability and vulnerability of tourists were calculated for both dry and rainy day conditions. The resulting individual risk for exposed people visiting the historical site can be considered as acceptable for all scenarios, whereas the overall societal risk lies within the as low as reasonably practicable (ALARP) zone and therefore requires some mitigation actions. For the explicit assessment of uncertainty, an error propagation technique (first-order second moment (FOSM)) was adopted, starting from expert knowledge heuristic estimations of the coefficient of variation for each component of the risk analysis procedure. As a result, coefficients of variation of the calculated risk were obtained, ranging from 48 to 132 %, thus demonstrating the importance of accounting for uncertainty in rockfall risk modelling. A multi-criteria methodology is also proposed for the assessment of the standard deviation of the parameters adopted for the stochastic rockfall run-out model.     

Multi-risk governance for natural hazards in Naples and Guadeloupe

Technical and institutional capacities are strongly related and must be jointly developed to guarantee effective natural risk governance. Indeed, the available technical solutions and decision support tools influence the development of institutional frameworks and disaster policies. This paper analyses technical and institutional capacities, by providing a comparative evaluation of governance systems in Italy and France. The focus is on two case studies: Naples and Guadeloupe. Both areas are exposed to multiple hazards, including earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, landslides, floods, tsunamis, fires, cyclones, and marine inundations Cascade and conjoint effects such as seismic swarms triggered by volcanic activity have also been taken into account. The research design is based on a documentary analysis of laws and policy documents informed by semi-structured interviews and focus groups with stakeholders at the local level. This leads to the identification of three sets of governance characteristics that cover the key issues of: (1) stakeholders and governance level; (2) decision support tools and mitigation measures; and (3) stakeholder cooperation and communication. The results provide an overview of the similarities and differences as well as the strengths and weaknesses of the governance systems across risks. Both case studies have developed adequate decision support tools for most of the hazards of concern. Warning systems, and the assessment of hazards and exposure are the main strengths. While technical/scientific capacities are very well developed, the main weaknesses involve the interagency communication and cooperation, and the use and dissemination of scientific knowledge when developing policies and practices. The consequences for multi-risk governance are outlined in the discussion.     

A conceptual hydrogeological model of ophiolitic aquifers (serpentinised peridotite): The test example of Mt. Prinzera (Northern Italy)

The main aim of this study is the experimental analysis of the hydrogeological behaviour of the Mt. Prinzera ultramafic massif in the northern Apennines, Italy. The analysed multidisciplinary database has been acquired through (a) geologic and structural survey; (b) geomorphologic survey; (c) hydrogeological monitoring; (d) physico‐chemical analyses; and (e) isotopic analyses. The ultramafic medium is made of several lithological units, tectonically overlapped. Between them, a low‐permeability, discontinuous unit has been identified. This unit behaves as an aquitard and causes a perched groundwater to temporary flow within the upper medium, close to the surface. This perched groundwater flows out along several structurally controlled depressions, and then several high‐altitude temporary springs can be observed during recharge, together with several perennial basal (i.e., low altitude) springs, caused by the compartmentalisation of the system because of high‐angle tectonic discontinuities.     

Waves generated by a moving point-source within a finite-depth ocean

We consider a flat ocean of finite depth h consisting of an inviscid, incompressible fluid with no surface tension. A source of constant strength moves uniformly in a horizontal direction at a constant depth. We study the wake generated by this moving disturbance.Using the Fourier transform approach, we determine the unique velocity potential for this irrotational, steady motion, subject to the bottom and free-surface boundary conditions and to its vanishing at infinity.     

Weak stability boundary trajectories for the deployment of lunar spacecraft constellations

Suitable lunar constellation coverage can be obtained by separating the satellites in inclinations and node angles. It is shown in the paper that a relevant saving of velocity variation ΔV can be achieved using weak stability boundary trajectories. The weakly stable dynamics of such transfers allows the separation of the satellites from the nominal orbit to the required orbit planes with a small amount of ΔV. This paper also shows that only one different set of orbital parameters at Moon can be reached with the same ΔV manoeuvre starting from a nominal trajectory and ending at a fixed periselenium altitude. In fact, such a feature is proved to be common to other simpler dynamical systems, such as the two- and three-body problems.     

Preliminary Photometric Evidence of Starspot Umbrae and Penumbrae on Late-Type Active Stars

We constrain the properties of the spotted regions on the photosphere of the active late-type star DX Leonis by comparing the observed amplitudes of light and color variations with synthetic amplitudes obtained by means of Dorren's spot model and computed for a grid of values of spot temperatures, areas and latitudes.     

Characterization of the Frictional Behavior of Steel-Polymer Interfaces with Pronounced Stick-Slip Effect for Use in Seismic Isolation

Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering - The frictional behavior of steel-PTFE interfaces for use in seismic isolation has been studied extensively in the past. However, alternative polymers, such as...