Incorporation of ice sheet models into an Earth system model: Focus on methodology of coupling

Elaboration of a modern Earth system model (ESM) requires incorporation of ice sheet dynamics. Coupling of an ice sheet model (ICM) to an AOGCM is complicated by essential differences in spatial and temporal scales of cryospheric, atmospheric and oceanic components. To overcome this difficulty, we apply two different approaches for the incorporation of ice sheets into an ESM. Coupling of the Antarctic ice sheet model (AISM) to the AOGCM is accomplished via using procedures of resampling, interpolation and assigning to the AISM grid points annually averaged meanings of air surface temperature and precipitation fields generated by the AOGCM. Surface melting, which takes place mainly on the margins of the Antarctic peninsula and on ice shelves fringing the continent, is currently ignored. AISM returns anomalies of surface topography back to the AOGCM. To couple the Greenland ice sheet model (GrISM) to the AOGCM, we use a simple buffer energy- and water-balance model (EWBM-G) to account for orographically-driven precipitation and other sub-grid AOGCM-generated quantities. The output of the EWBM-G consists of surface mass balance and air surface temperature to force the GrISM, and freshwater run-off to force thermohaline circulation in the oceanic block of the AOGCM. Because of a rather complex coupling procedure of GrIS compared to AIS, the paper mostly focuses on Greenland.     

Gradient-based Pareto optimal history matching for noisy data of multiple types

The advantages of the simultaneous integration of production and time-lapse seismic data for history matching have been demonstrated in a number of previous studies. Production data provide accurate observations at particular spatial locations (wells), while seismic data enable global, though filtered/noisy, estimates of state variables. In this work, we present an efficient computational tool for bi-objective history matching, in which data misfits for both production and seismic measurements are minimized using an adjoint-gradient approach. This enables us to obtain a set of Pareto optimal solutions defining the optimal trade-off between production and seismic data misfits (which are, to some extent, conflicting). The impact of noise structure and noise level on Pareto optimal solutions is investigated in detail. We discuss the existence of the “best” trade-off solution, or least-conflicting posterior model, which corresponds to the history-matched model that is expected to provide the least-conflicting forecast of future reservoir performance. The overall framework is successfully applied in 2D and 3D compositional simulation problems to provide a single least-conflicting posterior model and, for the 2D case, multiple samples from the posterior distribution using the randomized maximum likelihood method.     

What causes the spread of model projections of ocean dynamic sea-level change in response to greenhouse gas forcing?

Sea levels of different atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) respond to climate change forcing in different ways, representing a crucial uncertainty in climate change research. We isolate the role of the ocean dynamics in setting the spatial pattern of dynamic sea-level (ζ) change by forcing several AOGCMs with prescribed identical heat, momentum (wind) and freshwater flux perturbations. This method produces a ζ projection spread comparable in magnitude to the spread that results from greenhouse gas forcing, indicating that the differences in ocean model formulation are the cause, rather than diversity in surface flux change. The heat flux change drives most of the global pattern of ζ change, while the momentum and water flux changes cause locally confined features. North Atlantic heat uptake causes large temperature and salinity driven density changes, altering local ocean transport and ζ. The spread between AOGCMs here is caused largely by differences in their regional transport adjustment, which redistributes heat that was already in the ocean prior to perturbation. The geographic details of the ζ change in the North Atlantic are diverse across models, but the underlying dynamic change is similar. In contrast, the heat absorbed by the Southern Ocean does not strongly alter the vertically coherent circulation. The Arctic ζ change is dissimilar across models, owing to differences in passive heat uptake and circulation change. Only the Arctic is strongly affected by nonlinear interactions between the three air-sea flux changes, and these are model specific.

     

Scientific program construction principles and time allocation scheme for the World Space Observatory—Ultraviolet mission

We present scientific program construction principles and a time allocation scheme developed for the World Space Observatory—Ultraviolet (WSO-UV) mission, which is an international space observatory for observation in UV spectral range 100–300 nm. The WSO-UV consists of a 1.7 m aperture telescope with instrumentation designed to carry out high resolution spectroscopy, long-slit low resolution spectroscopy and direct sky imaging. The WSO-UV Ground Segment is under development by Spain and Russia. They will coordinate the Mission and Science Operations and provide the satellite tracking stations for the project.     

Vertical profiling of SO2 and SO above Venus’ clouds by SPICAV/SOIR solar occultations

New measurements of sulfur dioxide (SO₂) and monoxide (SO) in the atmosphere of Venus by SPICAV/SOIR instrument onboard Venus Express orbiter provide ample statistics to study the behavior of these gases above Venus’ clouds. The instrument (a set of three spectrometers) is capable to sound atmospheric structure above the clouds in several observation modes (nadir, solar and stellar occultations) either in the UV or in the near IR spectral ranges. We present the results from solar occultations in the absorption ranges of SO₂ (190–230 nm, and at 4 μm) and SO (190–230 nm). The dioxide was detected by the SOIR spectrometer at the altitudes of 65–80 km in the IR and by the SPICAV spectrometer at 85–105 km in the UV. The monoxide’s absorption was measured only by SPICAV at 85–105 km. We analyzed 39 sessions of solar occultation, where boresights of both spectrometers are oriented identically, to provide complete vertical profiling of SO₂ of the Venus’ mesosphere (65–105 km). Here we report the first firm detection and measurements of two SO₂ layers. In the lower layer SO₂ mixing ratio is within 0.02–0.5 ppmv. The upper layer, also conceivable from microwave measurements by Sandor et al. (Sandor, B.J., Todd Clancy, R., Moriarty-Schieven, G., Mills, F.P. [2010]. Icarus 208, 49–60) is characterized by SO₂ increasing with the altitude from 0.05 to 2 ppmv, and the [SO₂]/[SO] ratio varying from 1 to 5. The presence of the high-altitude SO_x species could be explained by H₂SO₄ photodissociation under somewhat warmer temperature conditions in Venus mesosphere. At 90–100 km the content of the sulfur dioxide correlates with temperature increasing from 0.1 ppmv at 165–170 K to 0.5–1 ppmv at 190–192 K. It supports the hypothesis of SO₂ production by the evaporation of H₂SO₄ from droplets and its subsequent photolysis at around 100 km.     

Contributions from the 10th International Conference on Gas in Marine Sediments, Listvyanka (Russia), 6–11 September 2010

The 10th International Conference on Gas in Marine Sediments (GIMS10) took place from 6 to 11 September 2010 in Listvyanka (Russia), on the shores of Lake Baikal. The conference was organized as a double jubilee, celebrating both the fact that it was the 10th event in this series and the 20th anniversary of the series. A total of 72 oral and 47 poster presentations were given in eight thematic sessions and the presentations were discussed by 126 participants from academic, governmental and commercial institutions from 19 countries, consisting of geologists, biologists, microbiologists, geophysicists, geochemists, oceanographers and limnologists. Volume 32(5/6) of Geo-Marine Letters is a double issue containing 16 selected papers from GIMS10, and has been guest edited by M. De Batist and O. Khlystov. The papers reflect the broad-spectrum disciplines represented at the conference and cover a wide range of aspects of gas in marine sediments from many parts of the world, but with a special emphasis on the gas seeps, gas hydrates and mud volcanoes of Lake Baikal.     

Predicting changes in alluvial channel patterns in North-European Russia under conditions of global warming

Global climate change may have a noticeable impact on the northern environment, leading to changes in permafrost, vegetation and fluvial morphology. In this paper we compare the results from three geomorphological models and study the potential effects of changing climatic factors on the river channel types in North-European Russia. Two of the selected models by Romashin [Romashin, V.V., 1968. Variations of the river channel types under governing factors, Annals of the Hydrological Institute, vol. 155. Hydrometeoizdat, Leningrad, pp. 56–63.] and Leopold and Wolman [Leopold, L.B., Wolman, M.G., 1957. River channel pattern: braided, meandering and straight, Physiographic and hydraulic studies of rivers. USA Geological Survey Professional Paper 252, pp. 85–98.] are conventional QS-type models, which predict the existence of either multi-thread or single-tread channel types using data on discharge and channel slope. The more advanced model by Van den Berg [Van den Berg, J.H., 1995. Prediction of alluvial channel pattern of perennial rivers. Geomorphology 12, 259–270.] takes into account the size of the sediment material.We used data from 16 runoff gauges to validate the models and predict the channel types at selected locations under modern and predicted for the future climatic conditions. Two of the three models successfully replicated the currently existing channel types in all but one of the studied sites. Predictive calculations under the hypothetical scenarios of 10%, 15%, 20% and 35% runoff increase gave different results. Van den Berg's model predicted potential transformation of the channel types, from single- to multi-thread, at 4 of 16 selected locations in the next few decades, and at 5 locations by the middle of the 21st century. Each of the QS-type models predicted such transformation at one site only.Results of the study indicate that climatic warming in combination with other environmental changes may lead to transformation of the river channel types at selected locations in north-western Russia. Further efforts are needed to improve the performance of the fluvial geomorphological models and their ability to predict such changes.     

Spectrum of hot water in the 4750–13 000 cm−1 wavenumber range (0.769–2.1 μm)

The high resolution laboratory spectrum of hot water vapour has been recorded in the 500–13 000 cm⁻¹ wavenumber range and we report on the analysis of the 4750–13 000 cm⁻¹ (0.769–2.1 μm) portion. The emission spectrum was recorded using an oxy-acetylene welding torch and a Fourier transform spectrometer. Line assignments in the laboratory spectrum as well as in an absorption spectrum of a sunspot umbra were made with the help of the BT2 line-list. Our torch spectrum is the first laboratory observation of the 9300 Å'steam bands' seen in M-stars and brown dwarfs.