A simple derivation of capture probabilities for the J+1:J and J+2:J orbit-orbit resonance problems

We present a simplified analytic derivation of the capture probabilities for the j+1j and j+2j orbital resonances. We apply Henrard's method which is based on an extension of the theory of adiabatic invariants and recover the results originally obtained by Yoder.Contribution number 3874 from the Division of Geological and Planetary Sciences, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91125, U.S.A.     

Dacite formation on Vesta: Partial melting of the eucritic crust

The Dominion Range 2010 howardite pairing group contains an evolved lithic clast of dacite composition. The dacite contains an assemblage of plagioclase, quartz, and augite, with minor pigeonite, troilite, ilmenite, FeNi metal, K‐feldspar, and phosphates. Primary augite occurs as >1 mm oikocrysts enclosing plagioclase. Quartz is abundant, comprising approximately 30% of the clast. Textural and geochemical characteristics support the hypothesis that the dacite is a primary igneous lithology, and represents a partial melt of the eucritic crust. Numerical modeling (MELTS) suggests 10–20% partial melting of a Juvinas source could have produced the dacite lithology; quantitative trace element modeling further supports crustal partial melting as the magma source for the dacite. The dacite likely formed as evolved‐melt pockets, and thus represents a volumetrically minor lithology in the Vestan crust, although its formation provides direct support for a genetic relationship between Stannern and residual trend eucrites, and is the first identification of residual eucrite complementary melts. We propose the dacite clast is the first characterized sample of tertiary crust on Vesta.     

A phytoplankton class-specific primary production model applied to the Kerguelen Islands region (Southern Ocean)

As part of the KErguelen: compared study of the Ocean and the Plateau in Surface water (KEOPS) project in late summer 2005, we examine the phytoplankton community composition and associated primary production in the waters surrounding the Kerguelen Archipelago, with the emphasis on two contrasted environments: (i) the Kerguelen Plateau, where a large bloom occurs annually, and (ii) the high-nutrient low-chlorophyll (HNLC) offshore waters. A biomarker pigment approach was used to assess the community composition in terms of chlorophyll biomass of three phytoplankton size classes, namely micro-, nano-, and picophytoplankton. The second objective was to evaluate a global class-specific approach for estimating the contribution of the three pigment-based size classes to the primary production in the study area. To do so, primary production rates associated with each phytoplankton class were computed from the class-specific chlorophyll biomass coupled to a class-specific primary production model, and compared with in situ measurements of size-fractionated ¹³C-based primary production. The iron-enriched bloom region was dominated by microphytoplankton (diatoms), which contributed 80–90% to the total primary production (of ≈1 g C m^?2 d^?1). In the HNLC area, the primary production was about 0.30 g C m^?2 d^?1, mainly (65%) achieved by small diatoms and nanoflagellates. The model results show a good overall agreement between predicted and measured total primary production rates. In terms of size classes, agreements were higher for the bloom region than for the HNLC waters. Discrepancies in this complex iron-limited area may be explained essentially by the smaller size of diatoms, or a different set of photophysiological properties.     

What do biphasic flow experiments reveal on the variability of exposure on alluvial fans and which implications for risk assessment result from this?

Sudden avulsions, unexpected channel migrations and backfilling phenomena are autogenic phenomena that can considerably change the propagation patterns of sediment-laden flows on alluvial fans. Once the initial and boundary conditions of the hazard scenario with a given return period are determined, the assessment of the associated exposed areas is based on one numerical, essentially deterministic, process simulation which may not adequately capture the underlying process variability. We generated sediment-laden flows on an experimental alluvial fan by following a “similarity-of-process concept”. Specifically, we considered a convexly shaped alluvial fan model layout featuring a curved guiding channel. As loading conditions, we defined a reference, an increased and a reduced level for the released water volume and the predisposed solid fraction, respectively. Further, we imposed two different stream power regimes and accomplished, for each factor combination, eight experimental runs. The associated exposure areas were recorded by video and mapped in a GIS. We then analysed exposure data and determined exposure probability maps superposing the footprints of the eight repetitions associated with each experimental loading condition. The patterns of exposure referred to the specific loading conditions showed a noticeable variability related to the main effects of the total event volume, the solid fraction, the interactions between them, and the imposed stream power in the feeding channel. Our research suggests that adopting a probabilistic notion of exposure in risk assessment and mitigation is advisable. Further, a major challenge consists in adapting numerical codes to better reflect the stochastics of process propagation for more reliable flood hazard assessments.

     

The anatomy of natural disasters on online media: hurricanes and wildfires

Natural Hazards - Increasing prevalence and scale of natural disasters fuel the need for new approaches to evaluating, and eventually mitigating, their impact. This analysis quantifies and compares...     

A New Natural Secondary Reference Material for Garnet U-Pb Dating by TIMS and LA-ICP-MS

Gem quality andradite-rich garnet (IUC-1), obtained from the Miocene trachyte dome near Ankara city (Turkey), has been identified as a potential natural secondary reference material for U-Pb dating. In this study, U-Pb dating was performed in five different laboratories using isotope dilution TIMS and laser ablation ICP-MS to determine the homogeneity of euhedral garnet crystals. The U-Pb ID-TIMS data for IUC-1 yielded ²⁰⁷Pb/²³⁵U and ²⁰⁶Pb/²³⁸U ages of 20.9 ± 0.4 and 20.6 ± 0.8 Ma respectively, and these values are consistent with U-Pb LA-ICP-MS analyses, in which different garnet crystals yielded ages of 20.8 ± 0.1, 20.7 ± 0.1, 20.7 ± 0.2 and 20.2 ± 0.1 Ma. An andradite (IUC-2) from the Serçeören wollastonite skarn (Turkey) can be used as a secondary reference material provided detailed imaging of the crystals is undertaken. ID-TIMS data yielded ²⁰⁷Pb/²³⁵U and ²⁰⁶Pb/²³⁸U ages of 20.4 ± 0.4 and 20.9 ± 1.0 Ma respectively, and yielded U-Pb ages on different grains of 20.5 ± 0.1, 20.7 ± 1.0, 20.8 ± 1.7 and 20.9 ± 1.6 Ma. The assigned weighted mean age of IUC-1 (20.4 ± 0.5 Ma, 2s) is proposed as a 2023 reference value. IUC-1 garnet is expected to contribute significantly to rapidly developing garnet geochronology in the near future.     

The resilience paradox: flooding experience,coping and climate change mitigation intentions

Climate change is projected to increase the frequency, intensity and unpredictability of extreme weather events across the globe and these events are likely to have significant mental health implications. The mental health literature broadly characterises negative emotional reactions to extreme weather experiences as undesirable impacts on wellbeing. Yet, other research in psychology suggests that negative emotional responses to extreme weather are an important motivation for personal action on climate change. This article addresses the intersection of mental health and functional perspectives on negative emotions, with a specific focus on the potential that reduced negative emotional responses to extreme weather may also translate to diminished motivation to undertake climate change mitigation actions – which we term the ‘resilience paradox’. Using survey data gathered in the aftermath of severe flooding across the UK in winter 2013/2014, we present new evidence indicating that self-appraised coping ability moderates the link between flooding experience and negative emotions and thereby attenuates the indirect link between flooding experience and climate change mitigation intentions. We conclude that support for flood victims should extend beyond addressing emotional, physical and financial stresses to include acknowledgement of the involvement of climate change and communication of the need for action to combat future climate risks.

Key policy insights

• Psychological resilience to flooding and other extreme weather events can translate to diminished motivation to mitigate climate change

• Negative emotional reactions need to occur at an optimal level to enable people to respond appropriately to climate risks.

• Flood victims’ subjective appraisal of their ability to cope does not necessarily encompass consideration of the role played by climate change. Therefore, support for victims of extreme weather should include explicit acknowledgement of the involvement of climate change and the need for action to mitigate future climate risks.

     

Mass and interior of Enceladus from Cassini data analysis

Gravity results are available from radio Doppler data acquired by the Deep Space Network during the encounter of the Cassini spacecraft with Enceladus in February 2005. We report the mass of Enceladus to be (1.0798±0.0016)×¹⁰²⁰ kg, which implies a density of . For a core made of hydrated silicates with a density of 2500 kg m⁻³ the core radius is ∼190 km and the quadrupole moment C₂₂∼1.4×¹⁰⁻³. If Enceladus is in hydrostatic equilibrium, the larger than previously anticipated density implies that the recently proposed secondary spin-orbit resonance cannot be present. Therefore, the source of endogenic activity of Enceladus remains unexplained.     

A procedure to analyze nonlinear density waves in Saturn's rings using several occultation profiles

Cassini radio science experiments have provided multiple occultation optical depth profiles of Saturn's rings that can be used in combination to analyze density waves. This paper establishes an accurate procedure of inversion of the wave profiles to reconstruct the wave kinematic parameters as a function of semi-major axis, in the nonlinear regime. This procedure is established using simulated data in the presence of realistic noise perturbations, to control the reconstruction error. It is then applied to the Mimas 5:3 density wave. There are two important concepts at the basis of this procedure. The first one is that it uses the nonlinear representation of density waves, and the second one is that it relies on a combination of optical depth profiles instead of just one profile. A related method to analyze density waves was devised by Longaretti and Borderies [Longaretti, P.-Y., Borderies, N., 1986. Icarus 67, 211-223] to study the nonlinear density wave associated with the Mimas 5:3 resonance, but the single photopolarimetric profile provided limited constraints. Other studies of density waves analyzing Cassini data [Colwell, J.E., Esposito, L.W., 2007. Bull. Am. Astron. Soc. 39, 461; Tiscareno, M.S., Burns, J.A., Nicholson, P.D., Hedman, M.M., Porco, C.C., 2007. Icarus 189, 14-34] are based on the linear theory and find inconsistent results from profile to profile. Multiple cuts of the rings are helpful in a fundamental way to ensure the accuracy of the procedure by forcing consistency among the various optical depth profiles. By way of illustration we have applied our procedure to the Mimas 5:3 density wave. We were able to recover precisely the kinematic parameters from the radio experiment occultation data in most of the propagation region; a preliminary analysis of the pressure-corrected dispersion allowed us to determine new but still uncertain values for the opacity (K?0.02 cm²/g) and velocity dispersion of (c₀?0.6 cm/s) in the wave region. Our procedure constitutes the first step in our planned analysis of the density waves of Saturn's rings. It is very accurate and efficient in the far-wave region. However, improvements are required within the first wavelength. The ways in which this method can be used to establish diagnostics of ring physics are outlined.     

Reconstructed droughts for the southeastern Tibetan Plateau over the past 568 years and its linkages to the Pacific and Atlantic Ocean climate variability

We present a Palmer Drought Severity Index reconstruction (r = 0.61, P < 0.01) from 1440 to 2007 for the southeastern Tibetan Plateau, based on tree rings of the forest fir (Abies forrestii). Persistent decadal dry intervals were found in the 1440s–1460s, 1560s–1580s, 1700s, 1770s, 1810s, 1860s and 1980s, and the extreme wet epochs were the 1480s–1490s, 1510s–1520s, 1590s, 1610s–1630s, 1720s–1730s, 1800s, 1830s, 1870s, 1930s, 1950s and after the 1990s. Comparisons of our record with those identified in other moisture related reconstructions for nearby regions showed that our reconstructed droughts were relatively consistent with those found in other regions of Indochina, suggesting similar drought regimes. Spectral peaks of 2.3–5.5 years may be indicative of ENSO activity, as also suggested by negative correlations with SSTs in the eastern equatorial and southeastern Pacific Ocean. Significant multidecadal spectral peaks of 29.2–40.9 and 56.8–60.2 years were identified. As indicated by the spatial correlation patterns, the decadal-scale variability may be linked to SST variations in the northern Pacific and Atlantic Oceans.