The Seasonal Prediction of the Exceptional Yangtze River Rainfall in Summer 2020

During June and July of 2020, the Yangtze River basin suffered from extreme mei-yu rainfall and catastrophic flooding. This study explores the seasonal predictability and associated dynamical causes for this extreme Yangtze River rainfall event, based on forecasts from the Met Office GloSea5 operational forecast system. The forecasts successfully predicted above-average rainfall over the Yangtze River basin, which arose from the successful reproduction of the anomalous western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH). Our results indicate that both the Indian Ocean warm sea surface temperature (SST) and local WNP SST gradient were responsible for the westward extension of the WNPSH, and the forecasts captured these tropical signals well. We explore extratropical drivers but find a large model spread among the forecast members regarding the meridional displacements of the East Asian mid-latitude westerly jet (EAJ). The forecast members with an evident southward displacement of the EAJ favored more extreme Yangtze River rainfall. However, the forecast Yangtze River rainfall anomaly was weaker compared to that was observed and no member showed such strong rainfall. In observations, the EAJ displayed an evident acceleration in summer 2020, which could lead to a significant wind convergence in the lower troposphere around the Yangtze River basin, and favor more mei-yu rainfall. The model forecast failed to satisfactorily reproduce these processes. This difference implies that the observed enhancement of the EAJ intensity gave a large boost to the Yangtze River rainfall, hindering a better forecast of the intensity of the event and disaster mitigation.     

Relationship among titanium,rare earth elements,U–Pb ages and deformation microstructures in zircon: Implications for Ti-in-zircon thermometry

A zircon grain in an orthopyroxene–garnet–phlogopite–zircon–rutile-bearing xenolith from Udachnaya, Siberia, preserves a pattern of crystallographic misorientation and subgrain microstructure associated with crystal–plastic deformation. The zircon grain records significant variations in titanium (Ti) from 2.6 to 30 ppm that corresponds to a difference in calculated Ti-in-zircon temperatures of over several hundred degrees Celsius. The highest Ti concentration is measured at subgrain centres (30 ppm), and Ti is variably depleted at low-angle boundaries (down to 2.6 ppm). Variations in cathodoluminescence coincide with the deformation microstructure and indicate localised, differential enrichment of rare earth elements (REE) at low-angle boundaries. Variable enrichment of U and Th and systematic increase of Th/U from 1.61 to 3.52 occurs at low-angle boundaries. Individual SHRIMP-derived U–Pb ages from more deformed zones (mean age of 1799 ± 40, n = 22) are systematically younger than subgrain cores (mean age of 1851 ± 65 Ma, n = 7), and indicate that open system behaviour of Ti–Th–U occurred shortly after zircon growth, prior to the accumulation of significant radiogenic Pb. Modelling of trace-element diffusion distances for geologically reasonable thermal histories indicates that the observed variations are ~ 5 orders of magnitude greater than can be accounted for by volume diffusion. The data are best explained by enhanced diffusion of U, Th and Ti along deformation-related fast-diffusion pathways, such as dislocations and low-angle (< 5°) boundaries. These results indicate chemical exchange between zircon and the surrounding matrix and show that Ti-in-zircon thermometry and U–Pb geochronology from deformed zircon may not yield information relating to the conditions and timing of primary crystallisation.     

New friends in new places: Network formation during the migration process among Poles in the UK

This paper contributes to on-going work that seeks to understand the dynamic nature of immigrant social network formation. We explore three propositions, derived from the literature, that might be expected to characterise the ways in which migrant associational ties evolve during and immediately after arrival in their destination country. Evidence is drawn from 42 interviews conducted between January and December 2008 with predominantly Polish migrants to the UK (28) as well as domestic service providers (14). In agreement with the existing literature on immigrant social network formation we find that weak associational ties between migrants are locally dense and rapidly formed. More surprisingly, we also find that the Poles in our sample from lower socio-economic groups tended to rely heavily upon weak associational ties while higher socio-economic group Poles tended to rely on associations made through their employing institutions. This illustrates the importance of socio-economic status in framing co-ethnic migrant network formation. This is significant because we also find that weak associational ties are not unambiguously beneficial to lower socio-economic group migrants who tend to (have to be) more compromising about, and therefore more compromised by, the social ‘friendships’ that result.     

Sedimentary recycling in arc magmas: geochemical and U–Pb–Hf–O constraints on the Mesoproterozoic Suldal Arc, SW Norway

The Hardangervidda-Rogaland Block within southwest Norway is host to ~1.52 to 1.48 Ga continental building and variable reworking during the ~1.1 to 0.9 Ga Sveconorwegian orogeny. Due to the lack of geochronological and geochemical data, the timing and tectonic setting of early Mesoproterozoic magmatism has long been ambiguous. This paper presents zircon U–Pb–Hf–O isotope data combined with whole-rock geochemistry to address the age and petrogenesis of basement units within the Suldal region, located in the centre of the Hardangervidda-Rogaland Block. The basement comprises variably deformed grey gneisses and granitoids that petrologically and geochemically resemble mature volcanic arc lithologies. U–Pb ages confirm that magmatism occurred from ~1,521 to 1,485 Ma, and conspicuously lack any xenocrystic inheritance of distinctly older crust. Hafnium isotope data range from εHf_(initial) +1 to +11, suggesting a rather juvenile magmatic source, but with possible involvement of late Palaeoproterozoic crust. Oxygen isotope data range from mantle-like (δ¹⁸O ~5 ‰) to elevated (~10 ‰) suggesting involvement of low-temperature altered material (e.g., supracrustal rocks) in the magma source. The Hf–O isotope array is compatible with mixing between mantle-derived material with young low-temperature altered material (oceanic crust/sediments) and older low-temperature altered material (continent-derived sediments). This, combined with a lack of xenoliths and xenocrysts, exposed older crust, AFC trends and S-type geochemistry, all point to mixing within a deep-crustal magma-generation zone. A proposed model comprises accretion of altered oceanic crust and the overlying sediments to a pre-existing continental margin, underthrusting to the magma-generation zone and remobilisation during arc magmatism. The geodynamic setting for this arc magmatism is comparable with that seen in the Phanerozoic (e.g., the Sierra Nevada and Coast Range batholiths), with compositions in the Suldal Sector reaching those of average upper continental crust. As within these younger examples, factors that drive magmatism towards the composition of the average continental crust include the addition of sedimentary material to magma source regions, and delamination of cumulate material. Underthrusting of sedimentary materials and their subsequent involvement in arc magmatism is perhaps a more widespread mechanism involved in continental growth than is currently recognised. Finally, the Suldal Arc magmatism represents a significant juvenile crustal addition to SW Fennoscandia.     

Effect of melt composition on basalt and peridotite interaction: laboratory dissolution experiments with applications to mineral compositional variations in mantle xenoliths from the North China Craton

Interaction between basaltic melts and peridotites has played an important role in modifying the lithospheric and asthenospheric mantle during magma genesis in a number of tectonic settings. Compositions of basaltic melts vary considerably and may play an important role in controlling the kinetics of melt–peridotite interaction. To better understand the effect of melt composition on melt–peridotite interaction, we conducted spinel lherzolite dissolution experiments at 2 GPa and 1,425 °C using the dissolution couple method. The reacting melts include a basaltic andesite, a ferro-basalt, and an alkali basalt. Dissolution of lherzolite in the basaltic andesite and the ferro-basalt produced harzburgite–lherzolite sequences with a thin orthopyroxenite layer at the melt–harzburgite interface, whereas dissolution of lherzolite in the alkali basalt produced a dunite–harzburgite–lherzolite sequence. Systematic variations in mineral compositions across the lithological units are observed. These mineral compositional variations are attributed to grain-scale processes that involve dissolution, precipitation, and reprecipitation and depend strongly on reacting melt composition. Comparison of mineral compositional variations across the dissolution couples with those observed in mantle xenoliths from the North China Craton (NCC) helps to assess the spatial and temporal variations in the extent of siliceous melt and peridotite interaction in modifying the lithospheric mantle beneath the NCC. We found that such melt–rock interaction mainly took place in Early Cretaceous, and is responsible for the enrichment of pyroxene in the lithospheric mantle. Spatially, siliceous melt–peridotite interaction took place in the ancient orogens with thickened lower crust.     

Groundwater supply and demand from southern Africa’s crystalline basement aquifer: evidence from Malawi

Failure of borehole sources in weathered and fractured crystalline basement aquifers in Malawi in southern Africa has been linked with poor borehole design, mechanical failure and badly sited boreholes. However, recent work in Malawi indicates that demand may now exceed long-term resource potential in some places and that this is also a cause of water point failure. An 11-year climate cycle (including a wet and dry period) necessitates overdraft from groundwater storage during the dry-cycle years before episodic rainfall events in the wetter part of the cycle again recharge the aquifers. Data, particularly groundwater hydrograph data, are sparse, but sufficient to evaluate the long-term renewable groundwater potential for both fractured and weathered basement-aquifer types in each of the 15 management areas in Malawi. The groundwater potential or long-term renewable resource (recharge) is given by the sum of Darcian throughflow and dry-season depletion of storage. Estimated rural demand exceeds the renewable resource in the fractured-rock aquifer in two management units and in the weathered-rock aquifer in two other units. Although there is inherent uncertainty in the water-balance estimates, the likelihood that rural demand is exceeding long-term average recharge in some areas is cause for concern.     

Response and recovery of the Eel River, California, and its tributaries to floods in 1955, 1964, and 1997

Northwestern California is prone to regional, high magnitude winter rainstorms, which repeatedly produce catastrophic floods in the basins of the northern Coast Ranges. Major floods on the Eel River in 1955 and 1964 resulted in substantial geomorphic changes to the channel, adjacent terraces, and tributaries. This study evaluated the changes and the effects of a moderate flood in 1997 through field observations and examination of aerial photographs that spanned from 1954 to 1996. The purpose was to document the nature and magnitude of geomorphic responses to these three floods and assess the rates and controls on the recovery of the Eel River and its tributaries. Channel widening from extensive bank erosion was the dominant geomorphic change along the lower Eel River during major floods. As a result of the 1964 flood, the largest amount of widening was 195 m and represented an 80% change in channel width. Channel narrowing characterized the periods after the 1955 and 1964 floods. More than 30 years after the 1964 flood, however, the river had not returned to pre-flood width, which suggests that channel recovery required decades to complete. A long recovery time is unusual given that the Eel River is located in an area with a “superhumid” climate and has an exceptionally high sediment yield. This long recovery time may reflect highly seasonal precipitation and runoff, which are concentrated in 3–5 months each winter. In contrast to the main stem of the Eel River, the dominant effects of floods on the tributaries of the Eel River were rapid aggradation of channel bed and valley floor followed by immediate downcutting. Dendrogeomorphic data, aerial photographs, and field observations indicate that thick wedges of gravel, derived largely from hillslope failures in upper reaches of the tributaries, are deposited at and immediately upstream of the mouths of tributaries as the stage of the Eel River exceeded that of the tributaries during major floods. In the waning stages of the flood, the tributaries cut through the gravel at a rate equal to the lowering of the Eel and generated unpaired terraces and nickpoints. The complete process of deposition and incision can occur within a few days of peak discharge. Although reworking of some sediment on the valley floor may continue for years after large floods, channel morphology in the tributaries appears to be a product of infrequent, high magnitude events. The morphology of the tributary channel also appears to be greatly influenced by the frequency and magnitude of mass wasting in headwater areas of small basins.     

Changes in active eolian sand at northern Coachella Valley, California

Climate variability and rapid urbanization have influenced the sand environments in the northern Coachella Valley throughout the late 20th century. This paper addresses changes in the spatial relationships among different sand deposits at northern Coachella Valley between two recent time periods by using satellite data acquired from the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER). The approach employed here, involving multispectral thermal infrared (TIR) data and spectral mixture analysis, has shown that the major sand deposits can be spatially modeled at northern Coachella Valley. The “coarse-grained (quartz-rich) sand” deposit is associated with active eolian sand, and the “mixed sandy soil” and “fine-grained (quartz-rich) sand” deposits are associated with inactive eolian sand. The fractional abundance images showed a significant decrease between 2000 and 2006 in the percentage of active sand in the major depositional area for fluvial sediment, the Whitewater River, but also in two downwind areas: the Whitewater and Willow Hole Reserves. The pattern of the active sand appears to be related to variations in annual precipitation (wet and dry years) and river discharge in the northern Coachella Valley. We suggest here that recent human modifications to the major watercourses that supply sand affect the capability of fluvial deposition areas to restore sediments over time and consequently the responses of the sand transport system to climate change, becoming more sensitive to dry years where areas of active sand may shrink, degrade, and/or stabilize faster. The approach utilized in this study can be advantageous for future monitoring of sand in the northern Coachella Valley for management of these and similar environments.