Interannual Thermocline Signals and El Nio-La Nia Turnabout in the Tropical Pacific Ocean

One of the fundamental questions concerning the nature and prediction of the oceanic states in the equatorial eastern Pacific is how the turnabout from a cold water state (La Nina) to a warm water state (El Nino) takes place, and vice versa. Recent studies show that this turnabout is directly linked to the interannual thermocline variations in the tropical Pacific Ocean basin. An index, as an indicator and precursor to describe interannual thermocline variations and the turnabout of oceanic states in our previous paper (Qian and Hu, 2005), is also used in this study. The index, which shows the maximum subsurface temperature anomaly (MSTA), is derived from the monthly 21-year (1980-2000) expendable XBT dataset in the present study. Results show that the MSTA can be used as a precursor for the occurrences of El Nino (or La Nina) events. The subsequent analyses of the MSTA propagations in the tropical Pacific suggest a one-year potential predictability for El Nino and La Nina events by identifying ocean temperature anomalies in the thermocline of the western Pacific Ocean. It also suggests that a closed route cycle with the strongest signal propagation is identified only in the tropical North Pacific Ocean. A positive (or negative) MSTA signal may travel from the western equatorial Pacific to the eastern equatorial Pacific with the strongest signal along the equator. This signal turns northward along the tropical eastern boundary of the basin and then moves westward along the north side of off-equator around 16°N. Finally, the signal returns toward the equator along the western boundary of the basin. The turnabout time from an El Nino event to a La Nina event in the eastern equatorial Pacific depends critically on the speed of the signal traveling along the closed route, and it usually needs about 4 years. This finding may help to predict the occurrence of the El Nino or La Nina event at least one year in advance.     

用非线性最优化方法研究El Nio可预报性的进展与前瞻

综述用非线性优化方法研究厄尔尼诺(El Ni~no)南方涛动(ENSO)事件可预报性的进展。针对ENSO可预报性研究中的热点问题———“前期征兆”、“春季可预报性障碍”,以及如何量化研究ENSO可预报性和ENSO的不对称性问题,作者在近年来的工作中先后用理论模式和中等复杂程度ENSO模式研究了ENSO可预报性的动力学,揭示了ENSO的若干重要非线性特征。主要结果如下:(1)条件非线性最优扰动(CNOP)(局部CNOP)比线性奇异向量更易发展成ENSO事件,扮演了ENSO的最优前期征兆。这些ENSO事件关于气候平均态是不对称的。理论分析表明,非线性温度平流过程是造成这种不对称性的重要原因。1980~2002年的海洋再分析资料验证了上述理论结果。(2)ENSO事件CNOP型初始误差的发展有明显的季节依赖性,该误差导致了ENSO事件最显著的春季可预报性障碍(SPB)现象。ENSO事件SPB的发生不仅依赖于气候平均态,而且依赖于ENSO事件本身及其初始误差模态,是三者综合作用的结果。(3)建立了关于ENSO可预报性的最大可预报时间下界、最大预报误差上界和最大允许初始误差下界的三类可预报性问题,分别从三个方面揭示了ENSO事件的春季可预报性障碍现象,比较有效地量化了其可预报性。(4)通过CNOP方法,揭示了非线性温度平流在年代际尺度ENSO不对称性研究中的重要作用,解释了ENSO不对称性的年代际变化,基于所用ENSO模式给出了ENSO不对称性年代际变化的机制。最后,展望了非线性优化方法在ENSO可预报性中应用的前景,并期望该方法能拓展到ENSO第二类可预报性问题的研究中。     

北京市部分地区土壤和植物中多环芳烃的分布

研究了北京市区东部、东南部和西南部不同功能区土壤和绿化植物中多环芳烃（PAHs）的分布特征，讨论了土壤和植物叶片中多环芳烃质量分数的相关性。结果表明：车流量较多的路边土壤PAHs质量分数很高，西城区北京杨叶片中PAHs质量分数较高；相同采样点的土壤与植物叶片中多环芳烃的质量分数相关显著。     

一种基于人工免疫的图像分割算法

图像二维熵分割,一直因耗时长而限制了实际应用。本文借鉴生物免疫思想,提出二维熵图像分割的人工免疫算法。在克隆选择算法中引入疫苗的免疫接种,用于优化最优分割阈值对的搜索过程。在遥感高分辨率图像上的实验显示,该算法不仅能准确搜索到最优阈值对,而且计算时间只有传统算法的1.8%。该算法也验证了人工免疫思想用于图像分割的可行性和有效性。     

惠州市1：5000卫星正射影像图测绘工程研究

我国利用IKONOS卫星影像制作1:5000正射影像图主要是集中在研究领域。惠州市国土资源局于2004年2月利用IKONOS卫星影像制作覆盖惠州市辖区1．2万平方公里的1:5000正射影像图,项目由广东省国土资源信息中心承担。大面积的测区利用IKONOS卫星制作1: 5000正射影像图在国内还属首次。本文探讨该测绘工程的实施技术及质量控制方法。     

矿产资源管理信息系统设计与开发

基于GIS的矿产资源管理信息系统采用地理信息系统(GIS)技术、SQL Server数据库技术以及网络技术,实现了矿产资源信息图形数据与属性数据统一管理,为矿产资源管理工作提供了现代化的科学管理手段和决策支持。本文介绍了系统的设计与实现、系统包含的工作模块、各个模块的功能结构以及采用的技术特点。     

ZHANG Heng’s Seismometer and Longxi earthquake in AD 134

Introduction Houhan Shu?ZHANG Heng Biography written by FAN Ye(AD398?AD445,South-North Dynasties)described about the response of ZHANG Heng’s Seismometer to Longxi earthquake as follows.“On one occasion a dragon dropped a ball without an earthquake being felt.All the scholars in the capital blamed this effect happening without any feelings of the earthquake.Several days later,a messenger arrived reporting that an earthquake really had taken place at Longxi.There-upon people all a…     

Comparison between earthquake magni-tudes determined by China seismograph network and US seismograph network (II): Surface wave magnitude

Introduction Earthquake magnitude is the most common measure of an earthquake′s size,and is one of the basic parameters of an earthquake.There are three most familiar scales of earthquake magnitude:ML(local earthquake magnitude),MS(surface wave magnitude)and mB/mb(body wave magni-tude).Richter(1935)introduced ML when studying earthquakes in Southern California.In1945,Gutenberg(1945a)put forward surface wave magnitude scale to determine earthquake magnitude(MS)using surface waves(20s)of s…     

3-D rheologic model of earthquake prepa-ration (III): Precursor field

Introduction Based on the elastic theory of hard inclusion model proposed by Dobrovolskii (1991), we developed a rheologic inclusion model to study the spatial-temporal variation of earthquake pre-cursor by using the bulk-strain field resulted from rheologic inclusion model (SONG et al, 2000). Based on the elastic inclusion theory, the analytical expressions for the viscoelastic displacement field and strain field of rheologic inclusion model are derived (SONG et al, 2003, 2004). Further-m…