Effect of snow cover on pan-Arctic permafrost thermal regimes

This study quantitatively evaluated how insulation by snow depth (SND) affected the soil thermal regime and permafrost degradation in the pan-Arctic area, and more generally defined the characteristics of soil temperature (T_SOIL) and SND from 1901 to 2009. This was achieved through experiments performed with the land surface model CHANGE to assess sensitivity to winter precipitation as well as air temperature. Simulated T_SOIL, active layer thickness (ALT), SND, and snow density were generally comparable with in situ or satellite observations at large scales and over long periods. Northernmost regions had snow that remained relatively stable and in a thicker state during the past four decades, generating greater increases in T_SOIL. Changes in snow cover have led to changes in the thermal state of the underlying soil, which is strongly dependent on both the magnitude and the timing of changes in snowfall. Simulations of the period 2001–2009 revealed significant differences in the extent of near-surface permafrost, reflecting differences in the model’s treatment of meteorology and the soil bottom boundary. Permafrost loss was greater when SND increased in autumn rather than in winter, due to insulation of the soil resulting from early cooling. Simulations revealed that T_SOIL tended to increase over most of the pan-Arctic from 1901 to 2009, and that this increase was significant in northern regions, especially in northeastern Siberia where SND is responsible for 50 % or more of the changes in T_SOIL at a depth of 3.6 m. In the same region, ALT also increased at a rate of approximately 2.3 cm per decade. The most sensitive response of ALT to changes in SND appeared in the southern boundary regions of permafrost, in contrast to permafrost temperatures within the 60°N–80°N region, which were more sensitive to changes in snow cover. Finally, our model suggests that snow cover contributes to the warming of permafrost in northern regions and could play a more important role under conditions of future Arctic warming.     

Multigroup radiative transfer in supernova shock breakout models

The physical peculiarities of supernova shock breakout are discussed. A number of models for various types of supernovae have been constructed based on multigroup radiative transfer by taking these peculiarities into account. The results of numerical simulations and the influence of the effects of photon scattering by electrons and the thermalization depth on them are considered. It is shown under which conditions the appearance of hard X-ray emission is possible at shock breakout. It is pointed out what refinements are necessary in the computational algorithms for radiative transfer and hydrodynamics.     

Slow and Fast Rotating Coronal Holes from Geomagnetic Indices

The evolution of the 27-day recurrence in the series of two solar indices (Wolf number WN and 10.7 cm radio flux F) and two geomagnetic indices (Dst and ζ, variance of the geomagnetic field recorded at a magnetic observatory) have been studied over the 1957 – 2007 time span. Spectral energies contained in two period domains (25 – 27.3 and 27.3 – 31 days), designated as E ₁ and E ₂, have been computed. Whereas the evolution of E ₁ is the same for the four indices, that of E ₂ is essentially different for WN and F on the one hand, Dst and ζ on the other hand. Some general conclusions on the dynamics of the solar outer layers are inferred from these results. First the solar activity, as measured by WN, and when averaged over a few years, evolves in the same way whatever the latitude. Second, two families of coronal holes (CHs) are identified; the rapidly and the slowly rotating CHs evolve quite differently.     

Machine Learning Feature Selection Methods for Landslide Susceptibility Mapping

This paper explores the use of adaptive support vector machines, random forests and AdaBoost for landslide susceptibility mapping in three separated regions of Canton Vaud, Switzerland, based on a set of geological, hydrological and morphological features. The feature selection properties of the three algorithms are studied to analyze the relevance of features in controlling the spatial distribution of landslides. The elimination of irrelevant features gives simpler, lower dimensional models while keeping the classification performance high. An object-based sampling procedure is considered to reduce the spatial autocorrelation of data and to estimate more reliably generalization skills when applying the model to predict the occurrence of new unknown landslides. The accuracy of the models, the relevance of features and the quality of landslide susceptibility maps were found to be high in the regions characterized by shallow landslides and low in the ones with deep-seated landslides. Despite providing similar skill, random forests and AdaBoost were found to be more efficient in performing feature selection than adaptive support vector machines. The results of this study reveal the strengths of the classification algorithms, but evidence: (1) the need for relying on more than one method for the identification of relevant variables; (2) the weakness of the adaptive scaling algorithm when used with landslide data; and (3) the lack of additional features which characterize the spatial distribution of deep-seated landslides.     

Lake Ladoga ice phenology: Mean condition and extremes during the last 65 years

Winter conditions play an important role for the largest lake in Europe—Lake Ladoga. The ice cover lasts for 171 ± 3 days on average from the early November until the mid‐May. We investigated the ice regime of Lake Ladoga using a constructed ice database of aircraft surveys and satellite images. More than 1250 surveys of the lake's ice cover from 1943 to 2010 were collected and analysed to determine mean and extreme ice conditions for winters of different types of severity. The time series of ice cover percentage over the lake was plotted. On average, 18 observational ice charts were made every winter. Individual ice phenology records show considerable year‐to‐year variation. For this reason, records typically have been combined and analysed as groups (categories). Extremely cold winters were determined as winters with complete ice cover that lasts more than three months which is approximately 90% quartiles from all winters with complete ice cover. The lake surface was completely covered with ice for more than three months during 5 seasons. Extremely warm winters when the maximum ice cover was less than 70% of the lake area occurred during 5 seasons as well. A basic relationship between the winter severity as winter maximum of accumulated freezing degree‐days (AFDD) and the earlier derived Relative Ice Cover Index (RICI) was established. We have used teleconnection indices such as North Atlantic Oscillations (NAO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO) for the period from October to May for estimation of different types of Lake Ladoga's ice conditions. The AO index in winter months and local winter maximum of AFDD explained much of the interannual variation in ice cover. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The non‐igneous genesis of angrites: Support from trace element distribution between phases in D'Orbigny

Abstract— D'Orbigny is an exceptional angrite. Chemically, it resembles other angrites such as Asuka‐881371, Sahara 99555, Lewis Cliff (LEW) 87051, and LEW 86010, but its structure and texture are peculiar. It has a compact and porous lithology, abundant glasses, augite‐bearing druses, and chemical and mineralogical properties that are highly unusual for igneous rocks. Our previous studies led us to a new view on angrites: they can possibly be considered as CAIs that grew to larger sizes than the ones we know from carbonaceous chondrites. Thus, angrites may bear a record of rare and special conditions in some part of the early solar nebula. Here we report trace element contents of D'Orbigny phases. Trace element data were obtained from both the porous and the compact part of this meteorite. We have confronted our results with the popular igneous genetic model. According to this model, if all phases of D'Orbigny crystallized from the same system, as an igneous origin implies, a record of this genesis should be expressed in the distribution of trace elements among early and late phases. Our results show that the trace element distribution of the two contemporaneous phases olivine and plagioclase, which form the backbone of the rock, seem to require liquids of different composition. Abundances of highly incompatible elements in all olivines, including the megacrysts, indicate disequilibrium with the bulk rock and suggest liquids very rich in these elements (>10,000 x CI), which is much richer than any fractional crystallization could possibly produce. In addition, trace element contents of late phases are incompatible with formation from the bulk system's residual melt. These results add additional severe constraints to the many conflicts that existed previously between an igneous model for the origin of angrites and the mineralogical and chemical observations. This new trace element content data, reported here, corroborate our previous results based on the shape, structure, mineralogy, chemical, and isotopic data of the whole meteorite, as well as on a petrographic and chemical composition study of all types of glasses and give strength to a new genetic model that postulates that D'Orbigny (and possibly all angrites) could have formed in the solar nebula under changing redox conditions, more akin to chondritic constituents (e.g., CAIs) than to planetary differentiated rock.     

Application of Theorems on Null-Geodesics on The Solar Limb Effect

A direct and more general calculation of the limb effect connected with red-shift observations is obtained. Result agrees completely, in its general form, with that obtained from observations of the solar spectra but with different value for the maximum effect. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

On the Possibility of Directional Analysis for Geo-neutrinos

The possibility of terrestrial antineutrino directionality studies is considered for future unloaded liquid scintillator detectors. Monte-Carlo simulations suggest that the measurable displacement between prompt and delayed antineutrino signals makes such studies possible. However, it is estimated that on the order of 1000 terrestrial antineutrino events are required to test the simplest models, demanding detectors of 100 kt size to collect sufficient data in a reasonable period of time.