SN 2005cs in M51 – II. Complete evolution in the optical and the near-infrared

We present the results of the one-year long observational campaign of the type II plateau SN 2005cs, which exploded in the nearby spiral galaxy M51 (the Whirlpool galaxy). This extensive data set makes SN 2005cs the best observed low-luminosity, ⁵⁶Ni-poor type II plateau event so far and one of the best core-collapse supernovae ever. The optical and near-infrared spectra show narrow P-Cygni lines characteristic of this SN family, which are indicative of a very low expansion velocity (about  1000 km s⁻¹  ) of the ejected material. The optical light curves cover both the plateau phase and the late-time radioactive tail, until about 380 d after core-collapse. Numerous unfiltered observations obtained by amateur astronomers give us the rare opportunity to monitor the fast rise to maximum light, lasting about 2 d. In addition to optical observations, we also present near-infrared light curves that (together with already published ultraviolet observations) allow us to construct for the first time a reliable bolometric light curve for an object of this class. Finally, comparing the observed data with those derived from a semi-analytic model, we infer for SN 2005cs a ⁵⁶Ni mass of about  3 × 10⁻³ M_⊙  , a total ejected mass of  8–13 M_⊙  and an explosion energy of about  3 × 10⁵⁰ erg  .     

Anatomical variation of five plant species along an elevation gradient in Mexico City basin within the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt,Mexico

Change in environmental conditions with altitudinal gradients induces morpho-anatomical variations in plants that have been poorly documented in intertropical regions. Five species with three life forms, cryptophyte (Alchemilla procumbens, Geranium seemannii), hemicryptophyte (Acaena elongata, Lupinus montanus), and phanerophyte (Symphoricarpos microphyllus), distributed along an altitudinal gradient in the Sierra Nevada of central Mexico, were studied. The aims were to identify and evaluate their morpho-anatomical modifications under the hypothesis that the sizes of individuals and of their wood and leaf cell types decrease as elevation increases. Three individuals per species per site were collected at seven locations along the altitudinal gradient (2949-3952 m). Their morpho-anatomical characters were analyzed through multiple regression analyses. Elevation was the variable that best explained anatomical changes in the leaf and wood of the five species. Canopy density and potassium content in the soil also contributed to explain the variation in anatomical variables along the gradient. As elevation increased a bimodal pattern was observed in various anatomical characters as in the leaf width of A. elongata, A. procumbens and G. seemannii and in the vessel diameter of A. procumbens, G. seemannii, and L. montanus. Other features as the vessel diameter of A. elongata, the fiber length of S. microphyllus, and the ray width of A. elongata increased as the elevation increased. Anatomical traits have a tendency to decrease in size but just toward the end of the gradient, which is probably related to changes in canopy density. The plant response to the altitudinal gradient is more focused on anatomical adaptations than morphological variation; it is also species dependent.     

Fault-slip, bed-length and area variations in experimental rollover anticlines over listric normal faults: influence in extension and depth to detachment estimations

To check the behaviour of physical experiments of simple rollover anticlines over listric normal faults, several fault-slip, bed-length and area parameters are measured for different beds in two stages of evolution of two physical experiments. Given a certain amount of extension, the heave and dip of the displacement vary for different beds, whereas the throw is approximately constant for small amounts of extension and the displacement remains constant for high amounts of extension. Neither bed lengths nor areas beneath beds remain constant with increasing extension. A number of techniques allow amounts of extension and detachment depth to be estimated given one or more marker horizons, the portion of the fault between hanging-wall and footwall cut off points, the depth to detachment and/or the shear angle. These techniques are applied to the physical experiments of listric normal faults analysed. Since many of these techniques rely on parameters measured on the physical experiments such as fault slip, bed length and area, the influence of these parameters on the different magnitudes of extension and detachment depths estimated using different techniques is discussed and the accuracy of the results is compared.     

Radar rainfall uncertainty modelling influenced by wind

Radar‐based estimates of rainfall are affected by many sources of uncertainties, which would propagate through the hydrological model when radar rainfall estimates are used as input or initial conditions. An elegant solution to quantify these uncertainties is to model the empirical relationship between radar measurements and rain gauge observations (as the ‘ground reference’). However, most current studies only use a fixed and uniform model to represent the uncertainty of radar rainfall, without consideration of its variation under different synoptic regimes. Wind is such a typical weather factor, as it not only induces error in rain gauge measurements but also causes the raindrops observed by weather radar to drift when they reach the ground. For this reason, as a first attempt, this study introduces the wind field into the uncertainty model and designs the radar rainfall uncertainty model under different wind conditions. We separate the original dataset into three subsamples according to wind speed, which are named as WDI (0–2 m/s), WDII (2–4 m/s) and WDIII (>4 m/s). The multivariate distributed ensemble generator is introduced and established for each subsample. Thirty typical events (10 at each wind range) are selected to explore the behaviours of uncertainty under different wind ranges. In each time step, 500 ensemble members are generated, and the values of 5th to 95th percentile values are used to produce the uncertainty bands. Two basic features of uncertainty bands, namely dispersion and ensemble bias, increase significantly with the growth of wind speed, demonstrating that wind speed plays a considerable role in influencing the behaviour of the uncertainty band. On the basis of these pieces of evidence, we conclude that the radar rainfall uncertainty model established under different wind conditions should be more realistic in representing the radar rainfall uncertainty. This study is only a start in incorporating synoptic regimes into rainfall uncertainty analysis, and a great deal of more effort is still needed to build a realistic and comprehensive uncertainty model for radar rainfall data. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Climate and human impact on a meromictic lake during the last 6,000 years (Montcortès Lake,Central Pyrenees,Spain)

Sedimentological, mineralogical and compositional analyses performed on short gravity cores and long Kullenberg cores from meromictic Montcortès Lake (Pre-Pyrenean Range, NE Spain) reveal large depositional changes during the last 6,000 cal years. The limnological characteristics of this karstic lake, including its meromictic nature, relatively high surface area/depth ratio (surface area ~0.1 km²; z _max = 30 m), and steep margins, facilitated deposition and preservation of finely laminated facies, punctuated by clastic layers corresponding to turbidite events. The robust age model is based on 17 AMS ¹⁴C dates. Slope instability caused large gravitational deposits during the middle Holocene, prior to 6 ka BP, and in the late Holocene, prior to 1,600 and 1,000 cal yr BP). Relatively shallower lake conditions prevailed during the middle Holocene (6,000–3,500 cal years BP). Afterwards, deeper environments dominated, with deposition of varves containing preserved calcite laminae. Increased carbonate production and lower clastic input occurred during the Iberian-Roman Period, the Little Ice Age, and the twentieth century. Although modulated by climate variability, changes in sediment delivery to the lake reflect modifications of agricultural practices and population pressure in the watershed. Two episodes of higher clastic input to the lake have been identified: 1) 690–1460 AD, coinciding with an increase in farming activity in the area and the Medieval Climate Anomaly, and 2) 1770–1950 AD, including the last phase of the Little Ice Age and the maximum human occupation in late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries.     

Phenology of trees and urbanization: a comparative study between New York City and Ithaca,New York

The ‘global warming’ effect has been found to influence vegetation phenological processes. Heat island phenomenon associated with urbanized area presents a unique place to investigate its local warming effects. This study compares the date of budburst (DOBB) of street London plane trees (Platanus × acerifolia) between highly urbanized New York City (NYC) and relatively less urbanized Ithaca, New York in 2007 and 2008. It also linked DOBB with land surface temperature and fractional vegetation cover derived from Landsat satellite images. The DOBB in NYC and Ithaca differed significantly as budburst occurred 3 and 4 days earlier in NYC than in Ithaca in 2007 and 2008, respectively. The intensity of the heat island effect and its effect on tree phenology were greater in NYC. Results show that DOBB can be explained by temperature, and findings could be extrapolated to make inferences on the potential impact of global warming on vegetation communities.     

Out‐of‐Core GPU‐based Change Detection in Massive 3D Point Clouds

If sites, cities, and landscapes are captured at different points in time using technology such as LiDAR, large collections of 3D point clouds result. Their efficient storage, processing, analysis, and presentation constitute a challenging task because of limited computation, memory, and time resources. In this work, we present an approach to detect changes in massive 3D point clouds based on an out‐of‐core spatial data structure that is designed to store data acquired at different points in time and to efficiently attribute 3D points with distance information. Based on this data structure, we present and evaluate different processing schemes optimized for performing the calculation on the CPU and GPU. In addition, we present a point‐based rendering technique adapted for attributed 3D point clouds, to enable effective out‐of‐core real‐time visualization of the computation results. Our approach enables conclusions to be drawn about temporal changes in large highly accurate 3D geodata sets of a captured area at reasonable preprocessing and rendering times. We evaluate our approach with two data sets from different points in time for the urban area of a city, describe its characteristics, and report on applications.     

Quantitative assessment of short‐term rainfall forecasts from radar nowcasts and MM5 forecasts

Short‐term Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPFs) can be achieved from numerical weather prediction (NWP) models or radar nowcasting, that is the extrapolation of the precipitation at a future time from consecutive radar scans. Hybrid forecasts obtained by merging rainfall forecasts from radar nowcasting and NWP models are potentially more skilful than either radar nowcasts or NWP rainfall forecasts alone. This paper provides an assessment of deterministic and probabilistic high‐resolution QPFs achieved by implementing the Short‐term Ensemble Prediction System developed by the UK Met Office. Both radar nowcasts and hybrid forecasts have been performed. The results show that the performance of both deterministic nowcasts and deterministic hybrid forecasts decreases with increasing rainfall intensity and spatial resolution. The results also show that the blending with the NWP forecasts improves the performance of the forecasting system. Probabilistic hybrid forecasts have been obtained through the modelling of a stochastic noise component to produce a number of equally likely ensemble members, and the comparative assessment of deterministic and probabilistic hybrid forecasts shows that the probabilistic forecasting system is characterised by a higher discrimination accuracy than the deterministic one. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.