Comparison of different methods describing the peak runoff contributing areas during floods

In the last few years, the scientific community has developed several hydrological models aimed at the simulation of hydrological processes acting at the basin scale. In this context, the portion of peak runoff contributing areas represents a critical variable for a correct estimate of surface runoff. Such areas are strongly influenced by the saturated portion of a river basin (influenced by antecedent conditions) but may also evolve during a specific rainfall event. In the recent years, we have developed 2 theoretically derived probability distributions that attempt to interpret these 2 processes adopting daily runoff and flood‐peak time series. The probability density functions (PDFs) obtained by these 2 schematisations were compared for humid river basins in southern Italy. Results highlighted that the PDFs of the peak runoff contributing areas can be interpreted by a gamma distribution and that the PDF of the relative saturated area provides a good interpretation of such process that can be used for flood prediction.     

Faulting on the western flank of Mt Etna and magma intrusions in the shallow crust

Surface deformations on the western flank of Mt Etna volcano, spanning 1980–2004, have been analysed as they pertain to stress interactions between magma intrusions within the shallow crust along the S–SE Rift and faulting sensitivity. During this period, an accurate analysis of strain parameters, computed by inversion of SW electro‐optical distance data, suggested that the observed strong displacements on this flank of the edifice can also be related to dextral shear movements along a roughly NE–SW buried fault crossing the area covered by this network, as supported by seismic observations of the 20–24 April 2001 swarm. Moreover, Coulomb stress change model analysis confirms that the displacement along this fault, heralding the July–August 2001 eruption 2 months earlier can be related to major stresses applied by a dike intrusion at depth along the S–SE Rift, as testified by the microseismicity occurring between November 2000 and 19 April 2001.     

The use of iron chemical analysis of podzols to date the Late Pleistocene–Holocene deglaciation history of the Central Italian Alps

Podzols that have developed on glacial and periglacial features provide the opportunity to reconstruct glacial evolution after the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) using different soil indices. Analysing 17 soils classified as podzol, we used the crystallinity ratio of free iron oxides (CRF) on both the A and Bs horizons, and absolute ages for the same landforms containing the soil profile, to create dating curves. Two equations were generated: age = 4566.9 × ln (CRF) + 1760 (1), and age = 3907 × ln (CRF) + 3508.2 (2). The reliability of the curves was evaluated with the Fe_o/Fe_d ratio, and with the difference of ages calculated using both equations. Equation (2) is considered more reliable because the A horizon may be influenced by new pedogenesis on the pre-existing podzol, leading to the development of a new type of soil. By dating the soils, we reconstructed the glacial history of the three main upper branches of the LGM Adda Glacier in the Central Italian Alps, specifically the Stelvio Pass area (ST), Gavia Pass area (GV), and the Val Viola valley (VV). Seven glacial advances were identified at 16.7–14.7 ka (phase I), 12.3 ka (phase II), 11 ka (phase III), 10–9.7 ka (phase IV), 9 ka (phase V), 7.5 ka (phase VI) and 5.3 ka (phase VII). The first five phases are chronologically similar to the main Late Pleistocene–Early Holocene phases recorded in the Central European Alps. The last two Holocene phases, which are both longer in duration than the Little Ice Age, are recorded in ST and GV. Interestingly, these phases generally are not recorded in the rest of the Central European Alps, where the late Holocene glaciers were smaller than their present size.     

Technological study of “ghiara” mortars from the historical city centre of Catania (Eastern Sicily, Italy) and petro-chemical characterisation of raw materials

This paper presents new petro-chemical data on some typical mortars found in many buildings in the historic city centre of Catania (Eastern Sicily). Extensively used in the architecture of the city from the second half of the nineteenth century until the mid-twentieth century, these mortars are characterised by a particular aggregate locally known as “agghiara” or “ghiara”. This is the product of thermal transformation induced by the heating undergone by palaeo-soils, originally rich in organic matter, covered by lava flows, which change their colour to reddish nuances. The volcanic origin of ghiara is a peculiar feature of the Etnean area. Mixed with lime, it gives to mortars an intense reddish colour, as well as hydraulic properties, which are comparable with those of the historically used pozzolana. This work aimed at complete characterisation of these ghiara mortars, for providing information on several important technological aspects. In order to get information on used raw materials, sampling of some ancient underground quarries, located both in the historic city centre and at the periphery, was also performed. Results led to the complete characterisation of the selected ghiara mortars and yielded information on some technological features and the composition of both newly formed and secondary phases, these latter due to alteration processes. The hydraulic properties of mortars have been related to the occurrence of amorphous phases within the ghiara aggregate, which were identified by means of SEM morphological observations. These phases, formed during the “firing” process of palaeo-soils, react with lime producing hydraulic compounds (C–S–H and C–A–H), which are responsible for the mortars durability.     

Stratospheric temperature trends: impact of ozone variability and the QBO

In most climate simulations used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2007 fourth assessment report, stratospheric processes are only poorly represented. For example, climatological or simple specifications of time-varying ozone concentrations are imposed and the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) of equatorial stratospheric zonal wind is absent. Here we investigate the impact of an improved stratospheric representation using two sets of perturbed simulations with the Hadley Centre coupled ocean atmosphere model HadGEM1 with natural and anthropogenic forcings for the 1979–2003 period. In the first set of simulations, the usual zonal mean ozone climatology with superimposed trends is replaced with a time series of observed zonal mean ozone distributions that includes interannual variability associated with the solar cycle, QBO and volcanic eruptions. In addition to this, the second set of perturbed simulations includes a scheme in which the stratospheric zonal wind in the tropics is relaxed to appropriate zonal mean values obtained from the ERA-40 re-analysis, thus forcing a QBO. Both of these changes are applied strictly to the stratosphere only. The improved ozone field results in an improved simulation of the stepwise temperature transitions observed in the lower stratosphere in the aftermath of the two major recent volcanic eruptions. The contribution of the solar cycle signal in the ozone field to this improved representation of the stepwise cooling is discussed. The improved ozone field and also the QBO result in an improved simulation of observed trends, both globally and at tropical latitudes. The Eulerian upwelling in the lower stratosphere in the equatorial region is enhanced by the improved ozone field and is affected by the QBO relaxation, yet neither induces a significant change in the upwelling trend.     

Chronology and dispersal characteristics of recently (last 5000 years) erupted tephra of Cotopaxi (Ecuador): implications for long-term eruptive forecasting

Cotopaxi, the highest active volcano on earth and one of the most dangerous of Ecuador is constituted by a composite cone made up of lava and tephra erupted from the summit crater. The activity of the present volcano begun with large-volume plinian eruptions followed by a succession of small-volume lava emissions and pyroclastic episodes which led to the edification of a symmetrical cone. The growth of the cone was broken by an episode of slope failure, the scar of which is now obliterated by recent and historical products. Volcanic history, eruptive frequency and characteristics of the activity were investigated by studying the stratigraphy of tephra and carrying out fifteen new ¹⁴C dating on paleosols and charcoals. The investigated period is comprised between the slope failure and the present. The deposit of the volcanic landside (dry debris avalanche of Rio Pita), previously believed to be between 13,000 and 25,000 yr B.P., is now considered to have an age slightly older than 5000 yr B.P. The stratigraphy of tephra of the last 2000 years reveals the existence of 22 fallout layers. Seven of them were dated with ¹⁴C whereas three were ascribed to the eruptions of 1534, 1768 and 1877 on the basis of comparison with historical information.Maximum clast size distribution (isopleths) of 9 tephra layers points out that the sustained explosive eruptions of Cotopaxi during the last 2000 years are characterized by very high dispersive power (plinian plumes with column heights between 28 and 39 km) and high intensity (peak mass discharges from 1.1 to 4.1 × 10⁸kg/s). The magnitude (mass) of tephra fallout deposits calculated from distribution of thickness (isopaches) are, however, moderate (from 0.8 to 7.2 × 10¹¹ kg). The limited volume of magma erupted during each explosive episode is consistent with the lack of caldera collapses. Small-volume pyroclastic flows and surges virtually accompanied all identified tephra fallouts. During such an activity large scale snow/ice melting of the summit glacier produced devastating mudflows comparable in scale to those of 1877 eruption. By assuming a 1:1 correspondence between fallout episodes and generation of large-scale lahar, we have estimated an average recurrence of one explosive, lahartriggering event every 117 years over the last two millennia. This value compares well with that calculated by considering the period since Spanish Conquest. The probability of having an eruption like this in 100 or 200 years is respectively of 0.57 and 0.82. Such an high probability underscores the need for quick actions aimed at the mitigation of Cotopaxi lahar hazard along all the main valleys which originate from the volcano.     

Volcanic hazard assessment at the restless Campi Flegrei caldera

Eruption forecasting and hazard assessments at the restless Campi Flegrei caldera, within the Neapolitan volcanic area, have been performed using stratigraphical, volcanological, structural and petrological data.On the basis of the reconstructed variation of eruption magnitude through time, we hypothesize that the most probable maximum expected event is a medium-magnitude explosive eruption, fed by trachytic magma. Such an eruption could likely occur in the north-eastern sector of the caldera floor that is under a tensile stress regime, when the ongoing deformation will generate mechanical failure of the rocks. A vent could open also in the western sector, at the intersection of two fault systems contemporaneously activated, as happened in the last eruption at Monte Nuovo. The eruption could likely be preceded by precursors apparent to the population, such as ground deformation, seismicity and increase in gas emissions. It will probably alternate between magmatic and phreatomagmatic phases with the generation of tephra fallout, and dilute and turbulent pyroclastic currents. During and/or after the eruption, the re-mobilization of ash by likely heavy rains, could probably generate mud flows.In order to perform a zoning of the territory in relation to the expected volcanic hazards, we have constructed a comprehensive hazard map. On this map are delimited (I) areas of variable probability of opening of a new vent, (II) areas which could be affected by variable load of fallout deposits, and (III) areas over which pyroclastic currents could flow. The areas in which a vent could likely open have been defined on the basis of the dynamics of the ongoing deformation of the caldera floor. To construct the fallout hazard map we have used the frequency of deposition of fallout beds thicker than 10 cm, the frequency of load on the ground by tephra fallout and the direction of dispersal axes of the deposits of the last 5 ka, and the limit load of collapse for the variable types of roof construction. The pyroclastic-current hazard map is based on the areal distribution and frequency of pyroclastic-current deposits of the last 5 ka.Editorial Responsibility: T. Druitt     

A GIS-Coupled Hydrological Model System for the Watershed Assessment of Agricultural Nonpoint and Point Sources of Pollution

This paper introduces AVSWAT, a GIS based hydrological system linking the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) water quality model and ArcView“ Geographic Information System software. The main purpose of AVSWAT is the combined assess‐ment of nonpoint and point pollution loading at the watershed scale. The GIS component of the system, in addition to the traditional functions of data acquisition, storage, organization and display, implements advanced analytical methods with enhanced flexibility to improve the hydrological characterization of a study watershed. Intuitive user friendly graphic interfaces, also part of the GIS component, have been developed to provide an efficient interaction with the model and the associated parameter databases, and ultimately to simplify water quality assessments, while maintaining and increasing their reliability. This is also supported by SWAT, the core of the system, a complex, conceptual, hydrologic, continuous model with spatially explicit parameterization, building upon the United State Department of Agriculture (USDA) modeling experience. A step‐by‐step example application for a watershed in Central Texas is also included to verify the capability and illustrate some of the characteristics of the system which has been adopted by many users around the world.