A fracture-mechanical cellular automaton model of seismicity

We present a cellular automaton model which simulates the process of seismogenesis using rules for evolution which are derived from the field of fracture mechanics, and include an interplay of positive and negative feedbacks. We describe the implementation of this model, and its analysis, in a massively parallel environment using the Connection Machine. Starting from a lattice with a fractal distribution of fracture toughnesses, theb value evolves in a way which closely mimics both the evolutions ofb value observed in the laboratory and derived from earthquake catalogues, reaching a broad and irregular maximum in the period preceding a major event, and declining rapidly during catastrophic failure. We conclude that the processes modelled are a reasonable representation of those occurring in Nature, and that the cellular automaton paradigm is a valuable way of simulating these processes on a large scale in an economical manner.     

Mineralogical and isotopic evidence for phenocryst-matrix disequilibrium in the Garner Mountain andesite

Petrographic, trace element and isotopic evidence demonstrates that magma mixing preceded the eruption of the Garner Mountain andesite. The flow contains reversely zoned plagioclase phenocrysts and amphibole pseudomorphs composed of plagioclase, clinopyroxene, orthopyroxene and opaque oxides. Partially resorbed quartz grains are also present. In contrast to the isotopically uniform matrix, plagioclase phenocrysts have ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios that correlate negatively with matrix Sr and positively with matrix Rb abundances. These observations demonstrate increasing isotopic disequilibrium between the plagioclase and matrix in the more evolved varieties of the flow.Plagioclase phenocrysts and matrix are assumed to record fractionation-assimilation events in different parts of the magma chamber. Early formed plagioclase phenocrysts crystallized under AFC conditions close to the roof of the chamber and were subsequently entrained in a liquid mixture composed of evolved interstitial liquid held in the partly crystallized roof zone and newly injected parental magma.     

Natural levee deposition during the 2005 flood of the Saskatchewan River

In summer 2005, a controlled flood of the Saskatchewan River (east-central Saskatchewan, Canada) resulted in general floodplain inundation and extensive natural levee deposition along a 60-km reach extending from 40 km below the E.B. Campbell dam to Cumberland Lake. Levee crests along channel banks were inundated for up to 7 weeks in some areas of the floodplain. New deposits on levee crests varied from 0 to 70 cm in thickness, displaying large variations both along reach and in opposing sites across channels. Mean grain sizes, mainly silt and very fine sand, likewise varied considerably among sample sites.Pre- and post-flood surveys of channel cross sections along the flooded reach permitted assessments of relationships between channel-area changes and patterns of levee sedimentation in this system in which virtually all new flood sediment was derived by channel scour. Results show that both net deposition and net erosion occurred within the channel cross sections, but that on average, net channel enlargement of 4.2% prevailed over the entire survey reach when weighted by cross-section size. Over the 60-km flooded reach, zones of thick levee deposition occur at or just downstream of two areas of major channel enlargement, and an intermediate zone of thin levee deposits is associated with an intermediate area of net channel aggradation. This bimodal distribution of flood-deposit thickness is inferred to have resulted from differences in sediment supply produced locally by the different extents of channel-perimeter erosion. Two other factors—(1) position of interfacial zones between clear floodbasin water and turbid channel water, and (2) difference in pre-flood levee heights—contributed to the poor correspondence in thickness and grain size between opposing levees at some sites. Additional features of the new levee deposits, including increases in transverse slopes, abrupt basinward fining, and paucity of deposition in distal areas due to clear floodbasin waters, are characteristic of strong front loading that results when suspended sediment production is restricted to channel erosion processes.     

Depositional development of the Muskeg Lake crevasse splay in the Cumberland Marshes (Canada)

Crevasse splays are common geomorphological features in alluvial and deltaic floodplains. Although crevasse splays can develop into full avulsions, thereby transforming large areas of floodbasins, little is known about their sedimentary and geomorphological development at the decadal scale and their avulsion potential. We used aerial photography and lithological cross‐sections to reconstruct crevasse‐splay formation in the largely unmanaged floodplain of the Saskatchewan River in the Cumberland Marshes (Saskatchewan, Canada). Based on surface geomorphology and subsurface deposits, various stages of crevasse‐splay development were described which were linked to both external forcing and internal morphodynamics. Initial splay deposition, following a levee breach during a large flood, occurred as a broad but relatively thin sandy sheet in a down‐basin direction in the receiving backswamp area. In a next phase, these primary crevasse‐splay deposits blocked local down‐basin flow, thereby forcing the crevasse‐splay channel in a direction perpendicular to the parent channel and original floodbasin gradient. This created an asymmetrical splay sequence composition, which differs in appearance from more commonly observed dendritic crevasse splays. It is concluded that sedimentation patterns in the splay have been influenced by inherited effects of previously formed deposits. Feedbacks of the original floodbasin gradient and earlier stages of splay formation are suggested as prominent mechanisms in creating the current morphology, orientation, and architecture of its deposits. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Climate Change Impacts for the Conterminous USA: An Integrated Assessment

Human activities have altered the distribution and quality of terrestrial ecosystems. Future demands for goods and services from terrestrial ecosystems will occur in a world experiencing human-induced climate change. In this study, we characterize the range in response of unmanaged ecosystems in the conterminous U.S. to 12 climate change scenarios. We obtained this response by simulating the climatically induced shifts in net primary productivity and geographical distribution of major biomes in the conterminous U.S. with the BIOME 3 model. BIOME 3 captured well the potential distribution of major biomes across the U.S. under baseline (current) climate. BIOME 3 also reproduced the general trends of observed net primary production (NPP) acceptably. The NPP projections were reasonable for forests, but not for grasslands where the simulated values were always greater than those observed. Changes in NPP would be most severe under the BMRC climate change scenario in which severe changes in regional temperatures are projected. Under the UIUC and UIUC + Sulfate scenarios, NPP generally increases, especially in the West where increases in precipitation are projected to be greatest. A CO₂-fertilization effect either amplified increases or alleviated losses in modeled NPP. Changes in NPP were also associated with changes in the geographic distribution of major biomes. Temperate/boreal mixed forests would cover less land in the U.S. under most of the climate change scenarios examined. Conversely, the temperate conifer and temperate deciduous forests would increase in areal extent under the UIUC and UIUC + Sulfate scenarios. The Arid Shrubland/Steppe would spread significantly across the southwest U.S. under the BMRC scenario. A map overlay of the simulated regions that would lose or gain capacity to produce corn and wheat on top of the projected distribution of natural ecosystems under the BMRC and UIUC scenarios (Global mean temperature increase of +2.5 °C, no CO₂ effect) helped identify areas where natural and managed ecosystems could contract or expand. The methods and models employed here are useful in identifying; (a) the range in response of unmanaged ecosystem in the U.S. to climate change and (b) the areas of the country where, for a particular scenario of climate change, land cover changes would be most likely.     

Stress and Flow beneath Island Arcs

Summary. The flow pattern, stress distribution, topography, and gravity anomalies were computed from numerical models having density and viscosity distributions resemblant to the Aleutian arc. The results were compatible with the hypothesis that the excess density of the slab drives its descent and that hydrodynamic forces are responsible for topographic and gravity highs over the outer rise seaward of the trench and the frontal arc and lows over the trench. In models with simple distributions of rheological parameters, the force from the slab was transmitted directly upward producing a negative gravity anomaly over the arc. Material with low resistance to flow was needed along the fault plane above the slab or within the crust of the frontal arc and within the wedge of asthenosphere above the slab to reduce that force and to allow the horizontal lithosphere to move with the slab. Models with the resistance to flow thus reduced had outer rises, deep trenches, horizontal tension seaward of the trench, horizontal compression under the trench, and downdip tension in the slab. Free air gravity anomalies, which are the sum of between deflections of the free surface due to hydrodynamic forces and direct attractions from the masses driving the flow, were not fit excellently by any of the models, in part because the coarse grid used precluded accurate representation of the fault zone above the slab and the frontal arc. An alternate to the hypothesis that about 5 kb of stress on the fault plane is needed to produce an outer rise is offered by these models. Shear stress between the slab and the island arc was always below 700 bars in the more successful models if the density distribution was scaled to match the topography of the trench. This is much less than the 2000 bars stresses needed if frictional heating causes island arc volcanism.     

Potassium-argon ages and strontium isotope ratio measurements from volcanic rocks in northeastern Nigeria

The Cenozoic volcanic activity in northeastern Nigeria began with the intrusion into the Benue trough of a trachyte-phonolite suite of plugs 22-11 m.y. ago. Later activity, which was more widespread and dominantly basaltic in character, began some 7 m.y. ago and has continued until very recent times. It resulted in basaltic plugs and lava plateaux within the Benue trough, and cinder cones and lavas on the Jos Plateau.The initial ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios of nine of the fifteen analyzed basic and alkalic rocks lie in the range 0.7025–0.7032, and the highest ratio measured is 0.7129.The main group of trachytes and phonolites are considered to be fractional melts derived from the upper mantle, modified in small part by potassium feldspar crystal fractionation. Two Sr-rich phonolite plugs may have a separate origin from the main group of trachytes and phonolites.The Cenozoic volcanic activity in northeastern Nigeria is probably related to the nearby Cameroun volcanic line. The concentration of plugs within the Benue trough may reflect internal adjustments along old lines of weakness within the African lithosphere plate, in response to synchronous changes affecting the plate's external dimensions and internal structure, such as the growth of the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, and the volcanism of the east African rift valley.