四川汶川8级大地震灾害损失快速评估研究/

地震发生之后,在没有开展地震现场调查之前,迅速对地震造成的人员伤亡、直接经济损失等进行评估,对地震应急救援决策非常重要．本文叙述了基于宏观经济指标的地震灾害损失评估方法,根据我国1989——2004年地震现场灾害损失调查资料重新确定的地震易损性模型,给出了汶川8级大地震发生后依据估计的经验地震烈度图得到的地震损失快速评估结果,并与依据现场调查确定的地震烈度分布图给出的地震损失评估结果进行了比较．表明根据近20年我国实际地震震例确定的地震易损性模型具有较好的适用性,损失评估结果的最大不确定来自于对地震影响场的估计．      

Primary Quantitative Study on Earthquake Damage Extracted from Remote Sensing Imagery——A Case Study of Seismic Damage in the Urban Area of Dujiangyan due to the M_S8.0 Wenchuan Earthquake

The fast developing remote sensing techniques play an increasingly important role in earthquake emergency response, disaster survey and loss estimation. As there is a lack of quantitative studies on seismic damage based on remote sensing, its practicality in seismic disaster management has usually been questioned. The paper introduces the essential quantitative study idea, the concept of the remote sensing seismic damage index (DRS_I RS) and analysis models, demonstrates the seismic damage indices (DG_IC) of buildings obtained from ground surveying and its quantitative relation to DRS_I RS in Dujiangyan city, Sichuan Province, which was destroyed by the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake with M_S8.0. The primary results show that an obvious relationship exists between the DRS_I RS of buildings obtained from the high resolution satellite or aerial remote sensing images and DG_I C or the building collapse ratio obtained through ground survey, which suggests that the quantitative study on seismic damage based on remote sensing will provide an effective method for seismic damage survey and loss estimation.     

水库地震预测与风险评估系统研制

水库地震预测与风险评估系统(RISaRiskAS 2007 for Window),是专门用于水库地震数据管理和信息查询、最大震级预测和潜在地震危险性与风险分析的系统,该系统具有很强的分析处理功能,可用于水库地震研究、大坝安全运行决策辅助支持和水库地震应急信息查询等。文中介绍了该系统的设计思路和主要功能     

中亚干旱区咸海的湖面变化及其环境效应

由于气候和人类活动的影响,近百年来成海水位出现了明显的波动,湖泊面积波动幅度近6×10<'4>km<'2>,由此产生了严重的区域生态环境问题.尤其是近50年来,随着流域人口增加、社会经济发展、工农业及生活用水造成的流域水资源匮乏,导致成海面积快速萎缩,引起一系列区域环境问题,威胁当地居民的生存.成海水位下降、面积萎缩主要引发了两个方面的生态环境效应:(1)绿洲的荒漠化.干涸的湖底直接成为荒地,形成新的沙源地;同时,区域地下水位下降,植被退化,草地沙化,加之风力从干涸湖底及临近沙漠区带来的风沙覆盖,形成新的沙漠带.改变的下垫面,影响湖泊对气候的调节功能,造成流域人居环境的恶化.(2)湖滨湿地的消失及湖水的成化,使得湿地资源与渔业资源等周围居民赖以生存的经济来源消失,同时由于来自裸露湖底的污染尘暴影响,使得流域原有土地功能退化.另外,污染的空气与饮用水直接威胁当地居民的健康.     

Application and comparison of two prediction models for groundwater levels: A case study in Western Jilin Province,China

Evaluation and prediction of groundwater levels through specific model(s) helps in forecasting of groundwater resources. Among the different robust tools available, the Integrated Time Series (ITS) and Back-Propagation Artificial Neural Network (BPANN) models are commonly used to empirically forecast hydrological variables. Here, we discuss the modeling process and accuracy of these two methods in assessing their relative advantages and disadvantages based on Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and coefficient of efficiency (CE). The arid and semi-arid areas of western Jilin province of China were chosen as study area owing to the decline of groundwater levels during the past decade mainly due to overexploitation. The simulation results indicated that both ITS and BPANN are accurate in reproducing (fitting) the groundwater levels and the CE are 0.98 and 0.97, respectively. In the validation phase, the comparison of the prediction accuracy of the BPANN and ITS models indicated that the BPANN models is superior to the ITS in forecasting the groundwater levels time series in term of the RMSE, MAE and CE.     

龙木错—双湖—澜沧江缝合带中段双湖地区地球物理特征

龙木错—双湖—澜沧江板块缝合带位于青藏高原羌塘中部至藏东一带,相关研究将其厘定为冈瓦纳板块的北界,对探讨青藏高原早期形成与演化历史及区域资源勘查与评价有重要的地质意义.本文结合区域重磁数据、大地电磁数据对该缝合带地球物理特征进行分析论证.首先基于WGM2012全球重力场模型网格化数据,利用垂向一阶导数计算、构造增强滤波等处理方法,推测龙木错—双湖—澜沧江缝合带异常的空间分布.计算的区域莫霍面在缝合带南北两侧深度存在较大差异.重力数据及其处理结果论证了龙木错—双湖—澜沧江缝合带存在的可能性.其次,选取了龙木错—双湖—澜沧江缝合带中段双湖地区的高质量大地电磁数据进行反演解释,电阻率反演结果表明缝合带南北存在较大的电性差异,结合区域地质情况,推测缝合带是不同地质体的分界线.最后,对缝合带地球物理响应特征和地质认识进行了讨论.通过对地球物理数据分析处理,为进一步讨论缝合带形成提供了有利的科学依据.     

基于SVG的高速公路横断面交互式可视化研究

高速公路建成后,养护、管理或改建时快速查看横断面结构、构造物等信息是十分重要的。本文以伊辽高速为例,通过数据提取、处理,实时生成高速公路横断面数据;并通过数据解析,使横断面数据成为SVG绘图的数据源,进而实现了Web下交互式横断面的绘制,从而直观地展现了道路、路基、道路附属设施、道路构造物等信息,便于高速公路管理和养护决策。     

郯庐断裂带安徽段土壤气体的地球化学特征

在郯庐断裂带安徽段由北向南分别于泗县、明光、肥东、桐城布设了4个测区,每个测区各布设了4条跨断层土壤气测量剖面,测量土壤气Rn、Hg和CO_2的浓度。根据16条跨断层土壤气剖面的测量结果,对郯庐断裂带安徽段的3种土壤气体的释放特征及其与断层空间位置间的关系进行了初步分析。结果表明,气体在断裂带附近较为富集,对断层位置有一定指示作用;气体的富集程度与断裂的活动性、该区段断层岩性及地质环境有一定关系。该结果对于认识测量区域气体的积累特征及构造地球化学研究有一定意义。