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61.
Self-organizing map (SOM) is used to simulate summer daily precipitation over the Yangtze–Huaihe river basin in Eastern China, including future projections. SOM shows good behaviors in terms of probability distribution of daily rainfall and spatial distribution of rainfall indices, as well as consistency of multi-model simulations. Under RCP4.5 Scenario, daily rainfall at most sites (63%) is projected to shift towards larger values. For the early 21st century (2016–2035), precipitation in the central basin increases, yet decreases occur over the middle reaches of the Yangtze River as well as a part of its southeast area. For the late 21st century (2081–2100), the mean precipitation and extreme indices experience an overall increase except for a few southeast stations. The total precipitation in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River and in its south area is projected to increase from 7% at 1.5 °C global warming to 11% at 2 °C, while the intensity enhancement is more significant in southern and western sites of the domain. A clustering allows to regroup all SOM nodes into four distinct regimes. Such regional synoptic regimes show remarkable stability for future climate. The overall intensification of precipitation in future climate is linked to the occurrence-frequency rise of a wet regime which brings longitudinally closer the South Asia High (eastward extended) and the Western Pacific Subtropical High (westward extended), as well as the reduction of a dry pattern which makes the two atmospheric centers of action move away from each other. 相似文献
62.
Climate variability and trends in downscaled high-resolution simulations and projections over Metropolitan France 总被引:2,自引:1,他引:1
Robert Vautard Thomas Noël Laurent Li Mathieu Vrac Eric Martin Philippe Dandin Julien Cattiaux Sylvie Joussaume 《Climate Dynamics》2013,41(5-6):1419-1437
In order to fulfill the society demand for climate information at the spatial scale allowing impact studies, long-term high-resolution climate simulations are produced, over an area covering metropolitan France. One of the major goals of this article is to investigate whether such simulations appropriately simulate the spatial and temporal variability of the current climate, using two simulation chains. These start from the global IPSL-CM4 climate model, using two regional models (LMDz and MM5) at moderate resolution (15–20 km), followed with a statistical downscaling method in order to reach a target resolution of 8 km. The statistical downscaling technique includes a non-parametric method that corrects the distribution by using high-resolution analyses over France. First the uncorrected simulations are evaluated against a set of high-resolution analyses, with a focus on temperature and precipitation. Uncorrected downscaled temperatures suffer from a cold bias that is present in the global model as well. Precipitations biases have a season- and model-dependent behavior. Dynamical models overestimate rainfall but with different patterns and amplitude, but both have underestimations in the South-Eastern area (Cevennes mountains) in winter. A variance decomposition shows that uncorrected simulations fairly well capture observed variances from inter-annual to high-frequency intra-seasonal time scales. After correction, distributions match with analyses by construction, but it is shown that spatial coherence, persistence properties of warm, cold and dry episodes also match to a certain extent. Another aim of the article is to describe the changes for future climate obtained using these simulations under Scenario A1B. Results are presented on the changes between current and mid-term future (2021–2050) averages and variability over France. Interestingly, even though the same global climate model is used at the boundaries, regional climate change responses from the two models significantly differ. 相似文献
63.
Large-Scale Structures over a Single Street Canyon Immersed in an Urban-Type Boundary Layer 总被引:2,自引:2,他引:0
An analysis of the dynamics of the flow over a street canyon immersed in an atmospheric boundary layer is presented, using particle image velocimetry measurements in a wind tunnel. Care was taken to generate a 1:200 model scale urban type boundary layer that is correctly scaled to the size of the canyon buildings. Using proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) of the velocity field and conditional averaging techniques, it is first shown that the flow above the opening of the canyon consists of a shear layer separating from the upstream obstacle, animated by a coherent flapping motion and generating large-scale vortical structures. These structures are alternately injected into the canyon or shed off the obstacle into the outer flow. It is shown that unsteady fluid exchanges between the canyon and the outer flow are mainly driven by the shear layer. Finally, using POD, the non-linear interaction between the large-scale structures of the oncoming atmospheric boundary layer and the flow over the canyon is demonstrated. 相似文献
64.
Austin H. Becker Michele Acciaro Regina Asariotis Edgard Cabrera Laurent Cretegny Philippe Crist Miguel Esteban Andrew Mather Steve Messner Susumu Naruse Adolf K. Y. Ng Stefan Rahmstorf Michael Savonis Dong-Wook Song Vladimir Stenek Adonis F. Velegrakis 《Climatic change》2013,120(4):683-695
With 80 % of world trade carried by sea, seaports provide crucial linkages in global supply-chains and are essential for the ability of all countries to access global markets. Seaports are likely to be affected directly and indirectly by climatic changes, with broader implications for international trade and development. Due to their coastal location, seaports are particularly vulnerable to extreme weather events associated with increasing sea levels and tropical storm activity, as illustrated by hurricane “Sandy”. In view of their strategic role as part of the globalized trading system, adapting ports in different parts of the world to the impacts of climate change is of considerable importance. Reflecting the views of a diverse group of stakeholders with expertise in climate science, engineering, economics, policy, and port management, this essay highlights the climate change challenge for ports and suggests a way forward through the adoption of some initial measures. These include both “soft” and “hard” adaptations that may be spearheaded by individual port entities, but will require collaboration and support from a broad range of public and private sector stakeholders and from society at large. In particular, the essay highlights a need to shift to more holistic planning, investment and operation. 相似文献
65.
Florence Habets Julien Boé Michel Déqué Agnès Ducharne Simon Gascoin Ali Hachour Eric Martin Christian Pagé Eric Sauquet Laurent Terray Dominique Thiéry Ludovic Oudin Pascal Viennot 《Climatic change》2013,121(4):771-785
This study presents an analysis of climate-change impacts on the water resources of two basins located in northern France, by integrating four sources of uncertainty: climate modelling, hydrological modelling, downscaling methods, and emission scenarios. The analysis focused on the evolution of the water budget, the river discharges and piezometric heads. Seven hydrological models were used, from lumped rainfall-discharge to distributed hydrogeological models, and led to quite different estimates of the water-balance components. One of the hydrological models, CLSM, was found to be unable to simulate the increased water stress and was, thus, considered as an outlier even though it gave fair results for the present day compared to observations. Although there were large differences in the results between the models, there was a marked tendency towards a decrease of the water resource in the rivers and aquifers (on average in 2050 about ?14 % and ?2.5 m, respectively), associated with global warming and a reduction in annual precipitation (on average in 2050 +2.1 K and ?3 %, respectively). The uncertainty associated to climate models was shown to clearly dominate, while the three others were about the same order of magnitude and 3–4 times lower. In terms of impact, the results found in this work are rather different from those obtained in a previous study, even though two of the hydrological models and one of the climate models were used in both studies. This emphasizes the need for a survey of the climatic-change impact on the water resource. 相似文献
66.
67.
Laurent Koechlin Denis Serre Gerald K. Skinner Peter Von Ballmoos Thomas Crouzil 《Experimental Astronomy》2005,20(1-3):307-315
The light deviation caused by the gravitational potential in the vicinity of the sun could be used as a means of focussing radiation that cannot be focussed easily otherwise. The gravitational lens formed by the sun is not stigmatic, but does have the advantage of being achromatic and acts identically on all types of mass-less radiations. For a source at infinity, its geometrical characteristics present a “caustic” line starting at 550 astronomical units (UA) downstream from the sun. In a plane perpendicular to that caustic line, images of distant objects are formed.The perturbations by the solar corona plasma will significantly blur electromagnetic radiation for wavelengths longer than those of the IR domain. At shorter wavelengths, for example the γ domain, the focussing process could lead to 108 amplification factors. In order to reach the regions where images are formed, long distance space missions are necessary. Once launched, missions of this type would be dedicated to a single field. Some possible targets are considered, such as Sagitarius A observed in X and γ rays.In this paper we study the point spread function (PSF) of the sun as a gravitational lens. Taking into account perturbations by the planets, the non sphericity of the sun and coronal plasma index, we derive limits within which such observations could be possible. 相似文献
68.
Spurious diapycnal mixing in terrain-following coordinate models: The problem and a solution 总被引:5,自引:0,他引:5
In this paper, we identify a crucial numerical problem in sigma coordinate models, leading to unacceptable spurious diapycnal mixing. This error is a by-product of recent advances in numerical methods, namely the implementation of high-order diffusive advection schemes. In the case of ROMS, spurious mixing is produced by its third-order upwind advection scheme, but our analysis suggests that all diffusive advection schemes would behave similarly in all sigma models. We show that the common idea that spurious mixing decreases with resolution is generally false. In a coarse-resolution regime, spurious mixing increases as resolution is refined, and may reach its peak value when eddy-driven lateral mixing becomes explicitly resolved. At finer resolution, diffusivities are expected to decrease but with values that only become acceptable at resolutions finer than the kilometer. The solution to this problem requires a specifically designed advection scheme. We propose and validate the RSUP3 scheme, where diffusion is split from advection and is represented by a rotated biharmonic diffusion scheme with flow-dependent hyperdiffusivity satisfying the Peclet constraint. The rotated diffusion operator is designed for numerical stability, which includes improvements of linear stability limits and a clipping method adapted to the sigma-coordinate. Realistic model experiments in a southwest Pacific configuration show that RSUP3 is able to preserve low dispersion and diffusion capabilities of the original third-order upwind scheme, while preserving water mass characteristics. There are residual errors from the rotated diffusion operator, but they remain acceptable. The use of a constant diffusivity rather than the Peclet hyperdiffusivity tends to increase these residual errors which become unacceptable with Laplacian diffusion. Finally, we have left some options open concerning the use of time filters as an alternative to spatial diffusion. A temporal discretization approach to the present problem (including implicit discretization) will be reported in a following paper. 相似文献
69.
70.
The new target of the Rosetta mission is comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko (hereafter 67P/C-G). In order to support the planning of the mission, in particular the strategy during the mapping and landing phases, we have performed numerical simulations of the rotational evolution of a comet in the orbit of 67P/C-G. In these simulations, the currently known observational constraints have been taken into account and a large set of initial conditions were considered. For most of the simulations, we observe that the sublimation-induced torques produce significant changes in the rotational parameters of a 67P/C-G-like comet. Typical rates of change for the spin period from the rendezvous up to the end of the nominal mission range from 0.001 to depending on different circumstances as described in the text. At perihelion, rates of change of the orientation of the angular momentum vector amount to about 0.01-. These simulations suggest that a specific strategy should be defined in order to monitor likely variations of the rotational parameters. As an example we show a possible optimized schedule for observations with the OSIRIS instrument to determine the rotational parameters of comet 67P/C-G and their possible evolution. 相似文献