Future emissions of marine halogenated very-short lived substances under climate change

Halogenated Very Short-lived Substances (VSLS), such as bromoform, dibromomethane and methyl iodide, are naturally produced in the oceans and are involved in ozone depletion in the troposphere and the stratosphere. The effect of climate change on the oceanic emissions of these compounds is not well quantified. Based on present-day observed global oceanic and atmospheric concentrations, and historic and future data from three CMIP5 models, past and future sea-to-air fluxes of these VSLS are calculated. The simulations are used to infer possible effects of projected changes of physical forcing on emissions in different oceanic regimes. CMIP5 model output for 1979–2100 from the historical scenario and the RCP scenarios 2.6 and 8.5 are used as input data for the emission calculations. Of the parameters that have the main influence on the sea-to-air fluxes, the global sea surface temperatures show a steady increase during the twenty-first century, while the projected changes of sea surface wind speed is very small. The calculated emissions based on the historical CMIP5 model runs (1979–2005) increased over the 26 year period and agree well with the emissions based on ERA-Interim data. The future sea-to-air fluxes of VSLS generally increase during the twenty-first century under the assumption of constant concentration fields in the ocean and atmosphere. The multi-model mean global emissions of bromoform increase by 29.4% (9.0%) between 1986 and 2005 and 2081–2100 under RCP 8.5 (2.6) and dibromomethane and methyl iodide emissions increase by 23.3% (6.4%) and 5.5% (1.5%), respectively. Uncertainties of the future emission estimates, driven by ongoing environmental changes such as changing oceanic productivity (not considered in this study) are discussed.     

Sub-recent nitrogen-isotope trends in sediments from Skagerrak (North Sea) and Kattegat: Changes in N-budgets and N-sources?

We determined ¹⁵N/¹⁴N ratios of total nitrogen in surface sediments and dated sediment cores to reconstruct the history of N-loading of the North Sea. The isotopic N composition in modern surface sediments is equivalent to and reflects the isotopic mixture of oceanic nitrate on the one hand (δ¹⁵N = 5‰) and the imprint of river-borne nitrogen input into the SE North Sea (δ¹⁵N up to 12‰ in estuaries of the SE North Sea) on the other hand. We compare the results with δ¹⁵N records from pre-industrial sediment intervals in cores from the Skagerrak and Kattegat areas, which both constitute significant depositional centres for N in the North Sea and the Baltic Sea/North Sea transition. As expected, isotopically enriched anthropogenic nitrogen was found in the two records from the Kattegat area, which is close to eutrophication sources on land. Enrichment of δ¹⁵N in cores from the Skagerrak – the largest sediment sink for nitrogen in the entire North Sea – was not significant and values were similar to those found in sediment layers representing pre-industrial conditions. We interpret this isotopic uniformity as an indication that most riverine reactive nitrogen with its characteristic isotopic signature is removed by denitrification in shallow shallow-water sediments before reaching the main sedimentary basin of the North Sea.     

News coverage of drought impacts and vulnerability in the US Carolinas, 1998–2007

Regional newspaper coverage from 1998 to 2007 is examined to expand our understanding of the complexity of drought impacts and vulnerability in the Carolinas. Coverage at the height of two droughts reports drought effects extending beyond first-order impacts on broadly recognized sectors, such as agriculture, livestock, and water supplies to recreation and tourism and impacts on businesses, manufacturing, and households. Impacts were accompanied by social controversies with near-term and long-term planning and development implications. Key concepts in vulnerability analysis were used to structure the review of vulnerability reporting. The coverage of differential vulnerability, although limited, identified individual, household, local, and cross-scale factors that influenced the severity of impacts. Articles also highlighted additional interacting stresses in some sectors contributing to the severity of impacts experienced. An elaborated understanding of drought impacts and vulnerabilities is a necessary, early step in advancing efforts to developing a risk-based drought management approach.     

Radiative transfer in disc galaxies – I. A comparison of four methods to solve the transfer equation in plane-parallel geometry

Accurate photometric and kinematic modelling of disc galaxies requires the inclusion of radiative transfer models. Because of the complexity of the radiative transfer equation (RTE), sophisticated techniques are required. Various techniques have been employed for the attenuation in disc galaxies, but a quantitative comparison of them is difficult, because of the differing assumptions, approximations and accuracy requirements that are adopted in the literature. In this paper, we present an unbiased comparison of four methods to solve the RTE, in terms of accuracy, efficiency and flexibility. We apply them all to one problem that can serve as a first approximation of large portions of disc galaxies: a one-dimensional plane-parallel geometry, with both absorption and multiple scattering taken into account, with arbitrary vertical distributions of stars and dust and an arbitrary angular redistribution of the scattering. We find that the spherical harmonics method is by far the most efficient way to solve the RTE, whereas both Monte Carlo simulations and the iteration method, which are straightforward to extend to more complex geometries, have a cost that is about 170 times larger.     

Developing a long-term outlook for the Great Barrier Reef,Australia: A framework for adaptive management reporting underpinning an ecosystem-based management approach

The Great Barrier Reef Outlook Report 2009 was the first produced in response to a newly legislated requirement for five-yearly reports on the status of and outlook for the Great Barrier Reef. It adopted an ecosystem approach, assessing all habitats and species, ecosystem processes and major uses. By then considering the factors affecting the ecosystem, coupled with an assessment of management effectiveness, it provided a risk-based forward-looking projection for the ecosystem. Rarely has such a comprehensive, ecosystem-based report been produced to guide government action. With no pre-determined path to follow for interpreting the legislative requirements, the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority (GBRMPA) developed a repeatable structure and method for Great Barrier Reef Outlook Reports that impartially and consistently considers the evidence and clearly presents the findings. The GBRMPA worked closely with relevant Australian and Queensland Government agencies as well as researchers, industry representatives and the community while developing the report. That such a report must be produced every five years allows an overview of the effectiveness of management responses to be regularly assessed. It also provides a transparent means of highlighting and tracking emerging risks facing the Great Barrier Reef.     

Radium Sampling Methods and Residence Times in St. Andrew Bay,Florida

Activity ratios (AR) of radium isotopes have been used with success to constrain estimates of water ages and to approximate residence times in coastal waters. We compared two common radium sampling methods (grab sampling and stationary moorings) to estimate water ages and the residence time of St. Andrew Bay waters in northwest Florida, USA. Both sampling methods utilize manganese dioxide fibers (“Mn fibers”) to adsorb dissolved radium from the water column. Grab samples capture radium activities at a discrete time while moorings integrate radium activities over longer deployments. The two methods yielded similar results in this study and thus both approaches are useful for water age comparisons and residence time approximations. However, since radium often varies as a function of tidal stage, deploying moorings over a complete tidal cycle is the preferred approach. An estimated residence time for North Bay and West Bay of 8–11 days was approximated using ARs for both ex²²⁴Ra/²²³Ra and ex²²⁴Ra/²²⁸Ra. Some complications were introduced as St. Andrew Bay is a tidally dominated, rather than a river-dominated bay system where this method has previously been applied. The largest freshwater source to this bay system is from a man-made reservoir, with an average freshwater flow of only 20 m³ s^?1. The activity concentrations and ARs measured by both sampling methods suggest that while the reservoir is the prominent radium source, it is not the only radium source. Nonetheless, a tidal mixing model applied to the western half of the system yielded an approximate flushing time of 10–12 days, similar to that derived from our radium-based water age approach.     

Nitrogen cycling in the German Bight (SE North Sea) — Clues from modelling stable nitrogen isotopes

Nitrogen isotope values (δ¹⁵N) of surface sediments in the German Bight of the North Sea exhibit a significant gradient from values of 5–6‰ of the open shelf sea to values above 11‰ in the German Bight. This signal has been attributed to high reactive N (N_r) loading enriched in ¹⁵N from rivers and the atmosphere. To better understand the processes that determine the intensity and spatial distribution of δ¹⁵N anomalies in surface sediments, and to explore their usefulness for reconstructions of pristine N-input from rivers, we modeled the cycling of the stable isotopes ¹⁴N and ¹⁵N in reactive nitrogen through the ecosystem of the central and southern North Sea (50.9–57.3°N, 3.4°W−9.2°E) for the year 1995. The 3D-ecosystem model ECOHAM amended with an isotope-tracking module was validated by δ¹⁵N data of surface sediments within the model domain. A typical marine value (δ¹⁵N_nitrate=5‰) was prescribed for nitrate advected into the model domain at the seaside boundaries, whereas δ¹⁵N_nitrate of river inputs were those measured bi-monthly over 1 year; δ¹⁵N values of atmospheric deposition were set to 6‰ and 7‰ for NO_x and NH_y, respectively. The simulated δ¹⁵N values of different nitrogen compounds in the German Bight strongly depend on the mass transfers in the ecosystem. These fluxes, summarized in a nitrogen budget for 1995, give an estimate of the impacts of hydrodynamical and hydrological boundary conditions, and internal biogeochemical transformations on the nitrogen budget of the bight.