Examination of Winter Circulation in a Northern Gulf of Mexico Estuary

Numerical model experiments were conducted to examine how estuarine circulation and salinity distribution in the Calcasieu Lake Estuary (CLE) of southwest Louisiana respond to the passage of cold fronts. River runoff, local wind stress, and tides from December 20, 2011, to February 1, 2012, were included as input. The experiments showed an anticyclonic circulation in the eastern CLE, a cyclonic circulation in West Cove, and a saltwater conduit in the navigation channel between these circulation cells. Freshwater from the river and wetlands tends to flow over the shallow shoals toward the ocean, presenting a case of the conventional estuarine circulation with shallow water influenced by river discharge and with weak tidally-induced motion, enhanced by wind. The baroclinic pressure gradient is important for the circulation and saltwater intrusion. The effect of remote wind-driven oscillation plays an important role in circulation and salinity distribution in winter. Unless it is from the east, wind is found to inhibit saltwater intrusion through the narrow navigation channel, indicating the effect of Ekman setup during easterly wind. A series of north-south oriented barrier islands in the lake uniquely influenced water level and salinity distribution between the shallow lake and deep navigation channel. The depth of the navigation channel is also crucial in influencing saltwater intrusion: the deeper the channel, the more saltwater intrusion and the more intense estuarine circulation. Recurring winter storms have a significant accumulated effect on the transport of water and sediment, saltwater intrusion, and associated environmental and ecosystem effects.     

Indices based on silicoflagellate assemblages offer potential for paleo-reconstructions of the main oceanographic zones of the Southern Ocean

This study reports detailed silicoflagellate assemblage composition and annual seasonal flux from sediment traps at four locations along a transect across the Southern Ocean frontal systems. The four traps sampled the central Subantarctic Zone (SAZ, 47°S site), the Subantarctic Front (SAF, 51°S site), the Polar Frontal Zone (54°S site) and the Antarctic Zone (61°S site) across the 140°E longitude. Annual silicoflagellate fluxes to the deep ocean exhibited a similar latitudinal trend to those of diatom fluxes reported in previous work, with maxima in the Antarctic Zone and minima in the Subantarctic Zone. The data suggest that, along with diatoms, silicoflagellates are important contributors to biogenic silica export at all sites, particularly in the Subantarctic Zone. Two main silicoflagellate genera were observed, with Stephanocha sp. (previously known as Distephanus) dominating polar waters and Dictyocha sp. important in sub-polar waters. This is consistent with previous use of the Dictyocha / Stephanocha ratio to infer paleotemperatures and monitor shifts in the position of the Polar Frontal Zone in the sedimentary record. It appears possible to further refine the application of this approach by using the ratio between two Dictyocha species, because Dictyocha aculeata dominated at the Subantarctic Front, while Dictyocha stapedia dominated in the central Subantarctic Front. Given the well-defined environmental affinities of both species, a new SAF silicoflagellate index (SAF-SI) based on this ratio is proposed as a useful diagnostic for SAF and SAZ water mass signatures in the Plio-Pleistocene and Holocene sedimentary record.     

A Causality-guided Statistical Approach for Modeling Extreme Mei-yu Rainfall Based on Known Large-scale Modes—A Pilot Study

Extreme Mei-yu rainfall (MYR) can cause catastrophic impacts to the economic development and societal welfare in China. While significant improvements have been made in climate models, they often struggle to simulate local-to-regional extreme rainfall (e.g., MYR). Yet, large-scale climate modes (LSCMs) are relatively well represented in climate models. Since there exists a close relationship between MYR and various LSCMs, it might be possible to develop causality-guided statistical models for MYR prediction based on LSCMs. These statistical models could then be applied to climate model simulations to improve the representation of MYR in climate models. In this pilot study, it is demonstrated that skillful causality-guided statistical models for MYR can be constructed based on known LSCMs. The relevancy of the selected predictors for statistical models are found to be consistent with the literature. The importance of temporal resolution in constructing statistical models for MYR is also shown and is in good agreement with the literature. The results demonstrate the reliability of the causality-guided approach in studying complex circulation systems such as the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM). Some limitations and possible improvements of the current approach are discussed. The application of the causality-guided approach opens up a new possibility to uncover the complex interactions in the EASM in future studies.     

The ocean response to climate change guides both adaptation and mitigation efforts

The ocean's thermal inertia is a major contributor to irreversible ocean changes exceeding time scales that matter to human society. This fact is a challenge to societies as they prepare for the consequences of climate change, especially with respect to the ocean. Here the authors review the requirements for human actions from the ocean's perspective. In the near term (～2030), goals such as the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) will be critical. Over longer times (～2050–2060 and beyond), global carbon neutrality targets may be met as countries continue to work toward reducing emissions. Both adaptation and mitigation plans need to be fully implemented in the interim, and the Global Ocean Observation System should be sustained so that changes can be continuously monitored. In the longer-term (after ～2060), slow emerging changes such as deep ocean warming and sea level rise are committed to continue even in the scenario where net zero emissions are reached. Thus, climate actions have to extend to time scales of hundreds of years. At these time scales, preparation for “high impact, low probability” risks — such as an abrupt showdown of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, ecosystem change, or irreversible ice sheet loss — should be fully integrated into long-term planning.摘要在全球变化背景下, 海洋的很多变化在人类社会发展的时间尺度上 (百年至千年) 具有不可逆转性, 海洋巨大的热惯性是造成该不可逆性的主要原因. 这个特征为人类和生态系统应对海洋变化提出一系列挑战. 本文从海洋变化的角度总结了人类应对气候变化的要求, 提出需要进行多时间尺度的规划和统筹. 在近期 (到2030年) , 实现联合国可持续发展目标至关重要. 在中期 (2050–2060年前后) , 全球需要逐步减排并实现碳中和目标. 同时, 适应和减缓气候变化的行动和措施必须同步施行; 全球海洋观测系统需要得以维持并完善以持续监测海洋变化. 在远期 (在2060年之后) , 即使全球达到净零排放, 包括深海变暖和海平面上升在内的海洋变化都将持续, 因此应对全球变化的行动需持续数百年之久. 在该时间尺度, 应对“低概率, 高影响”气候风险 (即发生的可能性较低, 但一旦发生影响极大的事件带来的风险, 例如: 大西洋经圈反转环流突然减弱, 海洋生态系统跨过临界点, 无可挽回的冰盖质量损失等) 的准备应充分纳入长期规划.     

Pacific variability reconciles observed and modelled global mean temperature increase since 1950

Global mean temperature change simulated by climate models deviates from the observed temperature increase during decadal-scale periods in the past. In particular, warming during the ‘global warming hiatus’ in the early twenty-first century appears overestimated in CMIP5 and CMIP6 multi-model means. We examine the role of equatorial Pacific variability in these divergences since 1950 by comparing 18 studies that quantify the Pacific contribution to the ‘hiatus’ and earlier periods and by investigating the reasons for differing results. During the ‘global warming hiatus’ from 1992 to 2012, the estimated contributions differ by a factor of five, with multiple linear regression approaches generally indicating a smaller contribution of Pacific variability to global temperature than climate model experiments where the simulated tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) or wind stress anomalies are nudged towards observations. These so-called pacemaker experiments suggest that the ‘hiatus’ is fully explained and possibly over-explained by Pacific variability. Most of the spread across the studies can be attributed to two factors: neglecting the forced signal in tropical Pacific SST, which is often the case in multiple regression studies but not in pacemaker experiments, underestimates the Pacific contribution to global temperature change by a factor of two during the ‘hiatus’; the sensitivity with which the global temperature responds to Pacific variability varies by a factor of two between models on a decadal time scale, questioning the robustness of single model pacemaker experiments. Once we have accounted for these factors, the CMIP5 mean warming adjusted for Pacific variability reproduces the observed annual global mean temperature closely, with a correlation coefficient of 0.985 from 1950 to 2018. The CMIP6 ensemble performs less favourably but improves if the models with the highest transient climate response are omitted from the ensemble mean.

     

The hazard exposure of the Maltese Islands

International comparisons of disaster risk frequently classify Malta as being one of the least hazard exposed countries. Such rankings may be criticised because: (1) they fail to take into account historic increases in population and its seasonal variation; (2) they are based on inadequately researched and incomplete historical catalogues of damaging events; and (3), for small island states like Malta, they do not take into account the implications of restricted land area, which can be disproportionately impacted by even small hazardous events. In this paper, we draw upon a variety of data to discuss disaster risk in the Maltese Islands. In particular, the notion that Malta is one of the ‘safest places on earth’ is not only misleading, but also potentially dangerous because it engenders a false sense of security amongst the population. We argue that Malta is exposed to a variety of extreme events, which include: the distal effects of major earthquakes originating in southern Italy and Greece, plus their associated tsunamis; major ash producing eruptions of Mount Etna (Sicily) and their putative impacts on air transport; storm waves; coastal/inland landslides; karstic collapse; flooding and drought. In criticising international rankings of the islands’ exposure, we highlight the issues involved in formulating hazard assessments, in particular incomplete catalogues of extreme natural events. With Malta witnessing swelling resident, seasonal (i.e. tourist) plus foreign-born populations and increases in the urban area, further research into hazards is required in order to develop evidence-based policies of disaster risk reduction (DRR).     

Pedestrian network repair with spatial optimization models and geocrowdsourced data

Pedestrian infrastructure is an essential part of the urban fabric. Typically, it is carefully planned and maintained by governments and local experts, who recognize the benefits to health, well-being, and even economics associated with a walkable environment. Pedestrian walkway characteristics, including running slope, cross slope, curb cuts, cross walks, sidewalk widths, and signalization are a part of the comprehensive design elements used by most municipalities. However, barriers or obstacles, including temporary obstructions, construction detours, and surface irregularities make this infrastructure difficult for individuals with a mobility impairment or vision impairment to use. Crowdsourcing can assist these individuals by providing information about transient and permanent navigation obstacles, through an accessibility mapping system. Accessibility mapping systems, several examples of which are discussed in this paper, provide routing functions to make navigation easier for individuals with a mobility impairment or vision impairment. A geocrowdsourced accessibility system can also identify deficiencies in a pedestrian network dynamically, and can provision routing and obstacle avoidance functions in real-time, with data about transient events provided by the public. This paper is based upon previous geocrowdsourced data quality studies, and presents a modeling methodology to identify high-value routing corridors in a dynamic geocrowdsourced accessibility system. The corridor measurement can help civic employees from city public works and transportation departments prioritize maintenance of a pedestrian infrastructure, including the rectification of obstacles identified through crowdsourcing. In this paper, we augment geocrowdsourcing data quality metrics with input from subject matter experts trained in orientation and mobility services, and discuss the accessibility elements that could directly influence the usability of the pedestrian infrastructure. We also present a cost optimization model to measure the value of a pedestrian network segment. Lastly, this paper analyzes how the value of a network segment in a geocrowdsourced accessibility system changes with network conditions and how this relates to prioritization of maintenance tasks through optimization criteria.     

How Well Do Restored Intertidal Oyster Reefs Support Key Biogeochemical Properties in a Coastal Lagoon?

The restoration of dead/degraded oyster reefs is increasingly pursued worldwide to reestablish harvestable populations or renew ecosystem services. Evidence suggests that oysters can improve water quality, but less is known about the role of associated benthic sediments in promoting biogeochemical processes, such as nutrient cycling and burial. There is also limited understanding of if, or how long postrestoration, a site functions like a natural reef. This study investigated key biogeochemical properties (e.g., physiochemical properties, nutrient pools, microbial community size and activity) in the sediments of dead reefs; 1-, 4-, and 7-year-old restored reefs; and natural reference reefs of the eastern oyster, Crassostrea virginica, in Mosquito Lagoon (FL, USA). Results indicated that most of the measured biogeochemical properties (dissolved organic carbon (C), NH₄ ⁺, total C, total nitrogen (N), and the activity of major extracellular enzymes involved in C, N, and phosphorus (P) cycling) increased significantly by 1-year postrestoration, relative to dead reefs, and then remained fairly constant as the reefs continued to age. Few differences were observed in biogeochemical properties between restored reefs of any age (1 to 7 years) and natural reference reefs. Variability among reefs of the same treatment category was often correlated with differences in the number of live oysters, reef thickness, and/or the availability of C and N in the sediments. Overall, this study demonstrates the role of live intertidal oyster reefs as biogeochemical hot spots for nutrient cycling and burial and the rapidity (within 1 year) with which biogeochemical properties can be reestablished following successful restoration.     

On Integrating Groundwater Transport Models with Wireless Sensor Networks

The emerging technology of wireless sensor networks (WSNs) is an integrated, distributed, wireless network of sensing devices. It has the potential to monitor dynamic hydrological and environmental processes more effectively than traditional monitoring and data acquisition techniques by providing environmental information at greater spatial and temporal resolutions. Furthermore, due to continuing high-performance computing development, these data may be introduced into increasingly robust and complex numerical models; for instance, the parameters of subsurface transport simulators may be automatically updated. Early field deployments and laboratory experiments conducted using in situ sensor technology and WSNs indicated significant fundamental issues concerning sensor and network hardware reliability—suggesting that investigations should first be conducted in controlled environments before field deployment. A first step in this validation process involves evaluating the predictive capability of a computational advection-dispersion transport model when incorporating concentration data from a WSN simulation. Data quality is a major concern, especially when sensor readings are automatically fed into data assimilation procedures. The appropriate employment of an independent WSN fault detection service can ensure that erroneous data (e.g., missing or anomalous values) do not mislead the model. Parameter estimation regularization techniques may then deal with remaining data noise. The primary purpose of this study is to determine the suitability of WSNs (and other in situ data delivery technologies) for use in contaminant transport modeling applications by conducting research in a realistic simulative environment.