Climate change and future flows of Rocky Mountain rivers: converging forecasts from empirical trend projection and down‐scaled global circulation modelling

To predict future river flows, empirical trend projection (ETP) analyses and extends historic trends, while hydroclimatic modelling (HCM) incorporates regional downscaling from global circulation model (GCM) outputs. We applied both approaches to the extensively allocated Oldman River Basin that drains the North American Rocky Mountains and provides an international focus for water sharing. For ETP, we analysed monthly discharges from 1912 to 2008 with non‐parametric regression, and extrapolated changes to 2055. For modelling, we refined the physical models MTCLIM and SNOPAC to provide water inputs into RIVRQ (river discharge), a model that assesses the streamflow regime as involving dynamic peaks superimposed on stable baseflow. After parameterization with 1960–1989 data, we assessed climate forecasts from six GCMs: CGCM1‐A, HadCM3, NCAR‐CCM3, ECHAM4 and 5 and GCM2. Modelling reasonably reconstructed monthly hydrographs (R² about 0·7), and averaging over three decades closely reconstructed the monthly pattern (R² = 0·94). When applied to the GCM forecasts, the model predicted that summer flows would decline considerably, while winter and early spring flows would increase, producing a slight decline in the annual discharge (?3%, 2005–2055). The ETP predicted similarly decreased summer flows but slight change in winter flows and greater annual flow reduction (?9%). The partial convergence of the seasonal flow projections increases confidence in a composite analysis and we thus predict further declines in summer (about ? 15%) and annual flows (about ? 5%). This composite projection indicates a more modest change than had been anticipated based on earlier GCM analyses or trend projections that considered only three or four decades. For other river basins, we recommend the utilization of ETP based on the longest available streamflow records, and HCM with multiple GCMs. The degree of correspondence from these two independent approaches would provide a basis for assessing the confidence in projections for future river flows and surface water supplies. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Selection and quality assessment of Landsat data for the North American forest dynamics forest history maps of the US

Using the NASA Earth Exchange platform, the North American Forest Dynamics (NAFD) project mapped forest history wall-to-wall, annually for the contiguous US (1986–2010) using the Vegetation Change Tracker algorithm. As with any effort to identify real changes in remotely sensed time-series, data gaps, shifts in seasonality, misregistration, inconsistent radiometry and cloud contamination can be sources of error. We discuss the NAFD image selection and processing stream (NISPS) that was designed to minimize these sources of error. The NISPS image quality assessments highlighted issues with the Landsat archive and metadata including inadequate georegistration, unreliability of the pre-2009 L5 cloud cover assessments algorithm, missing growing-season imagery and paucity of clear views. Assessment maps of Landsat 5–7 image quantities and qualities are presented that offer novel perspectives on the growing-season archive considered for this study. Over 150,000+ Landsat images were considered for the NAFD project. Optimally, one high quality cloud-free image in each year or a total of 12,152 images would be used. However, to accommodate data gaps and cloud/shadow contamination 23,338 images were needed. In 220 specific path-row image years no acceptable images were found resulting in data gaps in the annual national map products.     

Drivers of ecosystem and climate change in tropical West Africa over the past ∼540 000 years

A paucity of empirical non‐marine data means that uncertainty surrounds the impact of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems in tropical regions beyond the last glacial period. The sedimentary fill of the Bosumtwi impact crater (Ghana) provides the longest continuous Quaternary terrestrial archive of environmental change in West Africa, spanning the last ～1.08 million years. Here we explore the drivers of change in ecosystem and climate in tropical West Africa for the past ～540 000 years using pollen analysis and the nitrogen isotope composition of bulk organic matter preserved in sediments from Lake Bosumtwi. Variations in grass pollen abundance (0?99%) indicate transitions between grassland and forest. Coeval variations in the nitrogen isotopic composition of organic matter indicate that intervals of grassland expansion coincided with minimum lake levels and low regional moisture availability. The observed changes responded to orbitally paced global climate variations on both glacial–interglacial and shorter timescales. Importantly, the magnitude of ecosystem change revealed by our data exceeds that previously determined from marine records, demonstrating for the first time the high sensitivity of tropical lowland ecosystems to Quaternary climate change.

     

Modeling the risk of spread and establishment for Asian longhorned beetle (Anoplophora glabripennis) in Massachusetts from 2008-2009

Land managers responsible for invasive species removal in the USA require tools to prevent the Asian longhorned beetle (Anoplophora glabripennis) (ALB) from decimating the maple-dominant hardwood forests of Massachusetts and New England. Species distribution models (SDMs) and spread models have been applied individually to predict the invasion distribution and rate of spread, but the combination of both models can increase the accuracy of predictions of species spread over time when habitat suitability is heterogeneous across landscapes. First, a SDM was fit to 2008 ALB presence-only locations. Then, a stratified spread model was generated to measure the probability of spread due to natural and human causes. Finally, the SDM and spread models were combined to evaluate the risk of ALB spread in Central Massachusetts in 2008–2009. The SDM predicted many urban locations in Central Massachusetts as having suitable environments for species establishment. The combined model shows the greatest risk of spread and establishment in suitable locations immediately surrounding the epicentre of the ALB outbreak in Northern Worcester with lower risk areas in suitable locations only accessible through long-range dispersal from access to human transportation networks. The risk map achieved an accuracy of 67% using 2009 ALB locations for model validation. This model framework can effectively provide risk managers with valuable information concerning the timing and spatial extent of spread/establishment risk of ALB and potential strategies needed for effective future risk management efforts.     

Assessment of Submarine Groundwater Discharge (SGD) as a Source of Dissolved Radium and Nutrients to Moorea (French Polynesia) Coastal Waters

Previous work has documented large fluxes of freshwater and nutrients from submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) into the coastal waters of a few volcanic oceanic islands. However, on the majority of such islands, including Moorea (French Polynesia), SGD has not been studied. In this study, we used radium (Ra) isotopes and salinity to investigate SGD and associated nutrient inputs at five coastal sites and Paopao Bay on the north shore of Moorea. Ra activities were highest in coastal groundwater, intermediate in coastal ocean surface water, and lowest in offshore surface water, indicating that high-Ra groundwater was discharging into the coastal ocean. On average, groundwater nitrate and nitrite (N + N), phosphate, ammonium, and silica concentrations were 12, 21, 29, and 33 times greater, respectively, than those in coastal ocean surface water, suggesting that groundwater discharge could be an important source of nutrients to the coastal ocean. Ra and salinity mass balances indicated that most or all SGD at these sites was saline and likely originated from a deeper, unsampled layer of Ra-enriched recirculated seawater. This high-salinity SGD may be less affected by terrestrial nutrient sources, such as fertilizer, sewage, and animal waste, compared to meteoric groundwater; however, nutrient-salinity trends indicate it may still have much higher concentrations of nitrate and phosphate than coastal receiving waters. Coastal ocean nutrient concentrations were virtually identical to those measured offshore, suggesting that nutrient subsidies from SGD are efficiently utilized.     

Variable Nitrification Rates Across Environmental Gradients in Turbid,Nutrient-Rich Estuary Waters of San Francisco Bay

Understanding rates of nitrogen cycling in estuaries is crucial for understanding their productivity and resilience to eutrophication. Nitrification, the microbial oxidation of ammonia to nitrite and nitrate, links reduced and oxidized forms of inorganic nitrogen and is therefore an important step of the nitrogen cycle. However, rates of nitrification in estuary waters are poorly characterized. In fall and winter of 2011–2012, we measured nitrification rates throughout the water column of all major regions of San Francisco Bay, a large, turbid, nutrient-rich estuary on the west coast of North America. Nitrification rates were highest in regions furthest from the ocean, including many samples with rates higher than those typically measured in the sea. In bottom waters, nitrification rates were commonly at least twice the magnitude of surface rates. Strong positive correlations were found between nitrification and both suspended particulate matter and ammonium concentration. Our results are consistent with previous studies documenting high nitrification rates in brackish, turbid regions of other estuaries, many of which also showed correlations with suspended sediment and ammonium concentrations. Overall, nitrification in estuary waters appears to play a significant role in the estuarine nitrogen cycle, though the maximum rate of nitrification can differ dramatically between estuaries.     

Stock-Specific Movement and Distribution of Juvenile Chinook Salmon, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Oncorhynchus tshawytscha</Emphasis>, in Sandy Beach Surf Zones of Oregon and Washington,USA

Sandy beach surf zones serve as alternative nursery habitats for juvenile Chinook salmon (0 age) during their early marine residency, a period considered critical due to high and variable mortality rates. Despite the importance of early marine residence, the extent of juvenile salmon surf zone use and movement along sandy beaches is not well understood. Juvenile Chinook salmon distribution and movement were studied in shallow surf zone habitats by sampling from 2006 to 2010 with a beach seine 11 beaches adjacent and distant to four estuary mouths in Oregon and Washington, USA. The estuary of origin of each juvenile was determined using genetic stock identification methods and coded wire tags. Surf zones sampled were within littoral cells, which are stretches of the coastline bordered by rocky headlands, and included estuaries with and without Chinook salmon populations. Juvenile salmonids were only collected at littoral cells with Chinook-inhabited watersheds. Most juveniles (95 %) were present at sandy beaches adjacent (<500 m from estuary mouth) to their estuary of origin. Few Chinook salmon (5 %) were collected at littoral cells that contained non-natal estuaries. These results indicate that juvenile Chinook salmon inhabiting surf zones mostly use beaches adjacent to their estuaries of origin, but some juveniles may reside in beaches distant from their point of ocean entry.