A multi-sensor evaluation of precipitation uncertainty for landslide-triggering storm events

Extreme precipitation can have profound consequences for communities, resulting in natural hazards such as rainfall-triggered landslides that cause casualties and extensive property damage. A key challenge to understanding and predicting rainfall-triggered landslides comes from observational uncertainties in the depth and intensity of precipitation preceding the event. Practitioners and researchers must select from a wide range of precipitation products, often with little guidance. Here we evaluate the degree of precipitation uncertainty across multiple precipitation products for a large set of landslide-triggering storm events and investigate the impact of these uncertainties on predicted landslide probability using published intensity–duration thresholds. The average intensity, peak intensity, duration, and NOAA-Atlas return periods are compared ahead of 177 reported landslides across the continental United States and Canada. Precipitation data are taken from four products that cover disparate measurement methods: near real-time and post-processed satellite (IMERG), radar (MRMS), and gauge-based (NLDAS-2). Landslide-triggering precipitation was found to vary widely across precipitation products with the depth of individual storm events diverging by as much as 296 mm with an average range of 51 mm. Peak intensity measurements, which are typically influential in triggering landslides, were also highly variable with an average range of 7.8 mm/h and as much as 57 mm/h. The two products more reliant upon ground-based observations (MRMS and NLDAS-2) performed better at identifying landslides according to published intensity–duration storm thresholds, but all products exhibited hit ratios of greater than 0.56. A greater proportion of landslides were predicted when including only manually verified landslide locations. We recommend practitioners consider low-latency products like MRMS for investigating landslides, given their near-real time data availability and good performance in detecting landslides. Practitioners would be well-served considering more than one product as a way to confirm intense storm signals and minimize the influence of noise and false alarms.     

The Wave Glider: enabling a new approach to persistent ocean observation and research

The Wave Glider^TM wave-powered unmanned maritime vehicle represents a novel and unique approach to persistent ocean presence. Wave Glider is a hybrid sea-surface and underwater vehicle in that it is comprised of a submerged “glider” attached via a tether to a surface float. The Wave Glider vehicle is propelled by the purely mechanical conversion of ocean wave energy into forward thrust, independent of wave direction. In this paper, we provide an overview of the design of this new platform and present results from the engineering sea trials conducted with several prototype and production versions of the vehicle. In addition to the Wave Glider technology, we present results from ongoing scientific demonstration programs. Results from test deployments of a conductivity–temperature–depth sensor and its applicability to oceanography are discussed. An evaluation of horizontal current profiles and current velocity estimation from a Wave Glider operating in Monterey Bay (California, USA) are presented.     

Distribution and characteristics of PAHs in sediments from the Mediterranean coastal environment of Egypt

To assess the contamination of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in the Mediterranean coastal environment of Egypt, 26 sediment samples from the coastline, harbours, estuaries and coastal lakes were collected and analyzed. The sediment PAH concentrations of thirty-nine 2-6 ring PAHs ranged from 13.5 to 22,600 ng/g. PAH profiles varied according to the nature of the site and its proximity to sources. Industrialized and urbanized region showed high level of PAHs contamination. In general, the contamination levels of PAHs were similar to those observed in contaminated and slightly contaminated sediments of the Mediterranean Sea. Molecular indices based on ratios of selected PAH concentrations were used to differentiate PAHs from pyrogenic and petrogenic and mixed origins. Good correlations were observed between the petrogenic index, MP/P, A-PAHs/P-PAHs and HMW/LMW. Finally, PAH levels in sediments were compared with Sediments Quality Guidelines (ERM-ERL) for evaluation of probable toxic effects on organism.     

A physicochemical framework for interpreting the biological calcification response to CO2-induced ocean acidification

A generalized physicochemical model of the response of marine organisms’ calcifying fluids to CO₂-induced ocean acidification is proposed. The model is based upon the hypothesis that some marine calcifiers induce calcification by elevating pH, and thus Ω_A, of their calcifying fluid by removing protons (H⁺). The model is explored through two end-member scenarios: one in which a fixed number of H⁺ is removed from the calcifying fluid, regardless of atmospheric pCO₂, and another in which a fixed external-internal H⁺ ratio ([H⁺]_E/[H⁺]_I) is maintained. The model is able to generate the full range of calcification response patterns observed in prior ocean acidification experiments and is consistent with the assertion that organisms’ calcification response to ocean acidification is more negative for marine calcifiers that exert weaker control over their calcifying fluid pH. The model is empirically evaluated for the temperate scleractinian coral Astrangia poculata with in situ pH microelectrode measurements of the coral’s calcifying fluid under control and acidified conditions. These measurements reveal that (1) the pH of the coral’s calcifying fluid is substantially elevated relative to its external seawater under both control and acidified conditions, (2) the coral’s [H⁺]_E/[H⁺]_I is approximately the same under control and acidified conditions, and (3) the coral removes fewer H⁺ from its calcifying fluid under acidified conditions than under control conditions. Thus, the carbonate system dynamics of A. poculata’s calcifying fluid appear to be most consistent with the fixed [H⁺]_E/[H⁺]_I end-member scenario. Similar microelectrode experiments performed on additional taxa are required to assess the model’s general applicability.     

Effect of chlorine on near‐liquidus crystallization of olivine‐phyric shergottite NWA 6234 at 1 GPa: Implication for volatile‐induced melting of the Martian mantle

Martian magmas are thought to be rich in chlorine compared with their terrestrial counterparts. Here, we experimentally investigate the effect of chlorine on liquidus depression and near‐liquidus crystallization of olivine‐phyric shergottite NWA 6234 and compare these results with previous experimental results on the effect of chlorine on near‐liquidus crystallization of the surface basalts Humphrey and Fastball. Previous experimental results showed that the change in liquidus temperature is dependent on the bulk composition of the basalt. The effect of chlorine on liquidus depression is greater for lower SiO₂ and higher Al₂O₃ magmas than for higher SiO₂ and lower Al₂O₃ magmas. The bulk composition for this study has lower Al₂O₃ and higher FeO contents than previous work; therefore, we provide additional constraints on the effect of the bulk composition on the influence of chlorine on near‐liquidus crystallization. High pressure and temperature crystallization experiments were performed at 1 GPa on a synthetic basalt, of the bulk composition of NWA 6234, with 0–4 wt% Cl added to the sample as AgCl. The results are consistent with previous notions that with increasing wt% Cl in the melt, the crystallization temperature decreases. Importantly, our results have a liquidus depression ?T (°C) from added chlorine that is consistent with the difference in bulk composition and suggest a dependence on both the bulk Al₂O₃ and FeO content. Our results suggest that the addition of chlorine to the Martian mantle may lower magma genesis temperatures and potentially aid in the petrogenesis of Martian magmas.     

A priori testing of sparse adaptive polynomial chaos expansions using an ocean general circulation model database

This work explores the implementation of an adaptive strategy to design sparse ensembles of oceanic simulations suitable for constructing polynomial chaos surrogates. We use a recently developed pseudo-spectral algorithm that is based on a direct application of the Smolyak sparse grid formula and that allows the use of arbitrary admissible sparse grids. The adaptive algorithm is tested using an existing simulation database of the oceanic response to Hurricane Ivan in the Gulf of Mexico. The a priori tests demonstrate that sparse and adaptive pseudo-spectral constructions lead to substantial savings over isotropic sparse sampling in the present setting.     

Crime on the edges: patterns of crime and land use change

ABSTRACT

Criminologists have long-known that different locations have varying levels of risk for criminal victimization. Based on the geometry of crime and its corresponding crime generators and crime attractors, edges (boundaries between relatively homogeneous neighborhoods) are locations with an elevated risk of criminal victimization. In this article, we investigate the importance of edges. We find that criminal victimization rates are 2–3 times on an edge compared to elsewhere. However, this effect decreases very quickly moving away from these locations, with the effect gone at 40 meters. This general effect is identified in a number of contexts and locations.     

Subregionalization of Low-Frequency Summer Drought Variability in the Southeastern United States

Freshwater resources are particularly limited in the Southeastern United States. In recent years, severe summer droughts have placed substantial strain on municipal and industrial water resources, emphasizing the need for further research on the causes of long-term moisture deficits. Previous research has identified a Southeast drought region and specific low-frequency ocean-atmosphere influences on drought. In this article, we identify three distinct subregions of low-frequency summer drought variability in the Southeastern United States using principal components analysis. Multidecadal drought variability is most pronounced in the Southeastern Atlantic Coastal States (SEACS) subregion. The SEACS drought variability is significantly associated with ocean-atmosphere variability in the Atlantic and Pacific basins. The significance of ocean-atmosphere influences on drought in the Southeast is spatially confined within only the SEACS subregion. The Eastern Gulf States (EGS) subregion exhibits a long-term increase in summer moisture that is significantly associated with Northern Hemisphere surface temperature increases during the last century. The peninsular Florida subregion is characterized by high-frequency drought variability that is not associated with any of the climate indexes included in this study.