中国春季气温异常变率的非线性特征

运用一种基于神经网络的非线性主成分分析法(NLPCA)对中国1951-2003年53 a春季气温距平场进行分析,结果表明,春季气温异常变率具有显著的非线性特征,当非线性主元u分别取最大值和最小值时,对应的空间气温异常分布型具有显著的非对称性.     

"7.6"川西川南暴雨天气过程分析

本文利用2006年7月5日到6日的高空资料对7月6日到7日发生在四川省西部、南部的暴雨天气过程成因进行分析,利用24小时降水实况对中尺度雨团的移动做了分析,对数值预报产品的可预报性进行了检验.分析表明:高空低值系统的相互作用、地面冷空气的入侵、中低层能量以及水汽的聚集是这次过程产生的关键.     

"2007.4.1"四川盆地强寒潮天气过程分析

利用T213 1°×1°和欧洲中心实时资料,对2007年4月l～3日四川盆地区域性寒潮天气过程的环流背景及影响系统进行了分析,结果表明:500 hPa乌拉尔山到贝加尔湖以东为宽广深厚的低压带,地面上巴湖附近为冷高压,此冷高压在500 hPa脊前西北气流的引导下东移南压,是造成此次寒潮大风天气的主要原因;而且低空急流也对降温有一定的作用.     

高放废物地质处置库北山预选区地下水的形成和分布

本文论述北山地区不同类型地下水的形成和赋存规律。松散岩类孔隙水主要分布于沟谷和洼地，主要为潜水。沟谷潜水的形成以基岩裂隙水的侧向补给及洪流渗漏补给为主，洼地潜水可由沟谷潜水、断裂带或基岩裂隙水、古洪积扇潜水侧向补给，也可由地表洪流渗入补给；碎屑岩类孔隙-裂隙水主要分布在由自垩系或第三系砂砾石构成的山间沉积盆地中，以承压水为主，洪水下渗和盆地周围基岩裂隙水的侧向径流是此类地下水的主要补给来源；基岩裂隙水主要赋存于变质岩、岩浆岩、碎屑岩、碳酸盐岩节理、裂隙中，以潜水为主。降水垂直渗入、侧向补给或洪流渗漏补给为其主要来源。     

Deformation Mechanism and Stability of a Rocky Slope

A high slope is located on the side of the spillway at a hydropower station in Southwest China, which has some weak inter-layers inclining outwards. Parts of the slope show heavy weathering and unloading. There appeared deformation and tensile crack either on the surface or on the afteredge of the slope during excavation, and under a platform （elev. 488 m）, two levels of slopes collapsed on the downriver side. Based on the investigation in situ and the analysis of the geological structure, the conceptual model of deformation and failure mechanism was erected for this slope. Furthermore, the deformation characteristics were studied with FLAC^3D numerical simulation. Comprehensive analysis shows that the whole deformation of the slope is unloading rebound in certain depth scope and the whole body does not slide along any weak interlayer. In addition, two parts with prominent local deformation in the shallow layer of the slope show the models of ＂creep sfiding-tensile cracking＂ and ＂slidlng-tensile cracking＂, respectively. Based on the above analysis, the corresponding project of support and reinforcement is proposed to make the slope more stable.     

文安5.1级地震的一些异常特征

对文安5.1级地震的一些异常进行了分析和总结,认为地震逆时针方向迁移可能是地震空间活动的一个基本特征,其可作为背景异常。震前,地磁交汇法出现的异常,再次显示出该方法对地点预测的最大优势,交汇点附近即是未来震中区。这些异常特征对我们认识地震和预测地震都具有一定意义。     

东亚夏季风强弱年大气环流和热源异常对比分析

根据黄刚等定义的东亚夏季风指数, 对强、弱东亚夏季风年大气环流、大气热源和外强迫源SST的差异进行分析, 结果表明:强 (弱) 东亚夏季风年前期冬季到夏季, 太平洋SSTA为La Ni?a (El Ni?o) 型分布, 西太平洋暖池SST暖 (冷), 使得暖池附近对流活动较强 (较弱)。与此同时, 南亚大陆从印度半岛、青藏高原南部、中南半岛至华南大气异常加热 (变冷), 并且海陆热力对比加强 (减弱), 有利于出现强 (弱) 的东亚夏季风。此外, 由于暖池附近对流活动强 (弱), 该地区上升气流较强 (弱), Walker环流增强 (减弱), 当强 (弱) 的东亚夏季风向北推进时, 副热带西风急流北撤位置偏北 (南), 副热带高压位置也偏北 (南), 7月至8月华北 (江淮流域) 位于副热带西风急流南侧, 降水偏多, 江淮流域 (华北) 降水偏少。并给出与东亚夏季风年际变异有关的大气环流和SST异常的物理图像。     

“2007.4.1”四川盆地强寒潮天气过程分析

利用T2131°×1°和欧洲中心实时资料,对2007年4月1～3日四川盆地区域性寒潮天气过程的环流背景及影响系统进行了分析,结果表明:500hPa乌拉尔山到贝加尔湖以东为宽广深厚的低压带,地面上巴湖附近为冷高压,此冷高压在500hPa脊前西北气流的引导下东移南压,是造成此次寒潮大风天气的主要原因;而且低空急流也对降温有一定的作用。     

中国春季气温异常变率的非线性特征

运用一种基于神经网络的非线性主成分分析法(NLPCA)对中国1951-2003年53 a春季气温距平场进行分析,结果表明,春季气温异常变率具有显著的非线性特征,当非线性主元u分别取最大值和最小值时,对应的空间气温异常分布型具有显著的非对称性。     

Climate change and critical thresholds in China’s food security

Identification of ‘critical thresholds’ of temperature increase is an essential task for inform policy decisions on establishing greenhouse gas (GHG) emission targets. We use the A2 (medium-high GHG emission pathway) and B2 (medium-low) climate change scenarios produced by the Regional Climate Model PRECIS, the crop model – CERES, and socio-economic scenarios described by IPCC SRES, to simulate the average yield changes per hectare of three main grain crops (rice, wheat, and maize) at 50 km × 50 km scale. The threshold of food production to temperature increases was analyzed based on the relationship between yield changes and temperature rise, and then food security was discussed corresponding to each IPCC SRES scenario. The results show that without the CO₂ fertilization effect in the analysis, the yield per hectare for the three crops would fall consistently as temperature rises beyond 2.5 ^{^}C; when the CO₂ fertilization effect was included in the simulation, there were no adverse impacts on China’s food production under the projected range of temperature rise (0.9–3.9 ^{^}C). A critical threshold of temperature increase was not found for food production. When the socio-economic scenarios, agricultural technology development and international trade were incorporated in the analysis, China’s internal food production would meet a critical threshold of basic demand (300 kg/capita) while it would not under A2 (no CO₂ fertilization); whereas basic food demand would be satisfied under both A2 and B2, and would even meet a higher food demand threshold required to sustain economic growth (400 kg/capita) under B2, when CO₂ fertilization was considered.