A polygon-based modeling approach to assess exposure of resources and assets to wildfire

Spatially explicit burn probability modeling is increasingly applied to assess wildfire risk and inform mitigation strategy development. Burn probabilities are typically expressed on a per-pixel basis, calculated as the number of times a pixel burns divided by the number of simulation iterations. Spatial intersection of highly valued resources and assets (HVRAs) with pixel-based burn probability estimates enables quantification of HVRA exposure to wildfire in terms of expected area burned. However, statistical expectations can mask variability in HVRA area burned across all simulated fires. We present an alternative, polygon-based formulation for deriving estimates of HVRA area burned. This effort enhances investigations into spatial patterns of fire occurrence and behavior by overlaying simulated fire perimeters with mapped HVRA polygons to estimate conditional distributions of HVRA area burned. This information can be especially useful for assessing risks where cumulative effects and the spatial pattern and extent of area burned influence HVRA response to fire. We illustrate our modeling approach and demonstrate application across real-world landscapes for two case studies: first, a comparative analysis of exposure and area burned across ten municipal watersheds on the Beaverhead-Deerlodge National Forest in Montana, USA, and second, fireshed delineation and exposure analysis of a geographically isolated and limited area of critical wildlife habitat on the Pike and San Isabel National Forests in Colorado, USA. We highlight how this information can be used to inform prioritization and mitigation decisions and can be used complementarily with more traditional pixel-based burn probability and fire intensity metrics in an expanded exposure analysis framework.     

Remnant riparian vegetation,sediment and nutrient loads,and river rehabilitation in subtropical Australia

A decline in the ecosystem health of Australia's Moreton Bay, a Ramsar wetland of international significance, has been attributed to sediments and nutrients derived from catchment sources. To address this decline the regional management plan has set the target of reducing the loads by 50%. Reforestation of the channel network has been proposed as the means to achieve this reduction, but the extent of revegetation required is uncertain. Here we test the hypothesis that sediment and nutrient loads from catchments decrease proportionally with the increasing proportion of the stream length draining remnant vegetation. As part of a routine regional water quality monitoring program sediment and nutrient loads were measured in 186 flow events across 22 sub‐catchments with different proportions of remnant woodland. Using multiple linear regression analysis we develop a predictive model for pollutant loads. Of the attributes examined a combination of runoff and the proportion of the stream length draining remnant vegetation was the best predictor. The sediment yield per unit area from a catchment containing no remnant vegetation is predicted to be between 50 and 200 times that of a fully vegetated channel network; total phosphorus between 25 and 60 times; total nitrogen between 1.6 and 4.1 times. There are ~48 000 km of streams in the region of which 32% drain areas of remnant vegetation. Of these 17 095 km are above the region's water storage dams. We estimate that decreasing the sediment and phosphorus loads to Moreton Bay by 50% would involve rehabilitating ~6350 km of the channel network below the dams; halving the total nitrogen load would require almost complete restoration of the channel network. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

On the upper bounding approach to thermal convection at moderate rayleigh numbers

Abstract

Two upper bounding problems for thermal convection in a layer of fluid contained between perfectly conducting stress-free boundaries are treated numerically. Since the Euler equations resulting from this variational approach are simpler than the Navier-Stokes equations, they allow numerical calculations to be carried out economically to fairly large values of the Rayleigh number. The upper bounding problem formulated by Howard (1963), which yields a Nusselt number independent of Prandtl number, diverges from the correct behavior as the Rayleigh number increases. In hopes of coming closer to results of previous investigations of the Boussinesq equations of motion, a more restrictive upper bounding problem is formulated. For large Prandtl numbers the momentum equation is linearized and is used as an explicit side constraint on the variational problem, thereby forcing the solutions to more closely resemble the solutions of the Boussinesq equations. Numerical calculations at values of the Rayleigh number up to 1.5 × 10⁵ indicate that the additional constraint decreases the upper bound on the Nusselt number; it appears that this upper bound differs by only a multiplicative factor from that calculated from solutions of the full equations of motion and may be a reasonable approximation for large Rayleigh numbers.     

Radiants of the Leonids 1999 and 2001 Obtained by Lltv Systems Using Automatic Software Tools

Both amateur and professional meteor groups are more frequently using Low-Light level TV (LLTV) systems to record meteors. Double-station observations can yield orbit data. However, data analysis normally is still done by hand and thus time consuming. This paper addresses the question of whether available automated tools can be used to determine reasonably accurate orbits with minimum human intervention. The European Space Agency performed several observing campaigns to observe the Leonid meteor stream. In November 1999, the ESA meteor group was stationed at two locations in Southern Spain, in November 2001 at two stations close to Broome in North-Western Australia. Double-station observations with LLTV systems were conducted. The data was recorded on S-VHS video tapes. The tapes were processed using automatic detection software from which meteor heights, velocities and radiants were computed. This paper shows the results for the two maximum nights. The radiants determined in 1999 show a very large scatter due to unfortunate observing geometry and inaccurate position determination since one of the cameras was moving because of the wind. The 2001 data is excellent and the radiant was determined to be at RA = 153.96°±0.3° and Dec = 21.09°±0.2°. The error bars for individual meteor radiants are about 0.2° to 0.4°. This demonstrates that is indeed possible to determine good radiant positions using totally automated tools. Orbits, on the other hand, are not well defined due to the fact that the velocity of individual meteors shows large errors. Reasons for this are described.     

A note on the multi-α solutions of the upper bounding problem for thermal convection

The transition to “multi-α” solutions of the upper bounding problem for thermal convection is discussed. For convection in a fluid contained between parallel stress-free perfectly conducting boundaries, the “single-α” solutions of Straus (1973) are used to determine the Rayleigh number R at which the first transition occurs. Two upper bounding problems are treated: one valid for all values of the Prandtl number and one valid only for large Prandtl numbers. A significant difference between the two problems is noted. The former has a transition at R ～ 28200; the latter has no transition within the range of Rayleigh numbers treated here: R ? 2.3 · 10⁵.     

Consequences of Water Level Drops for Soft Sediment Deformation and Vertical Fluid Leakage

Both water level drops and erosion have previously been suggested as causes of fluid overpressures in the subsurface. Quantification of the relevance of these processes to supra-lithostatic fluid pressure formation with a wide selection of input parameters is lacking, and thus desired. The magnitudes and drop times that are required for water level drops to result in supra-lithostatic pore pressures in a variety of situations are calculated. Situations with pore fluids consisting of water, water with dissolved methane, water with a gas hydrate layer and dissolved methane in the underlying sediments, and water with dissolved methane, a gas hydrate layer, and free gas accumulation below the hydrate layer are separately addressed. The overpressure formation from reservoir gas expansion is also simulated. The simulation results demonstrate that high fluid overpressures can develop in a rock as a response to a water level drop without the presence of gas, provided that the rock has a sufficiently low compressibility. The contribution to fluid overpressuring is however dramatically increased if the pore water is saturated with methane prior to the water level drop, and is further amplified by the presence of gas hydrates and free gas accumulations beneath such hydrates. Gas expansion in reservoirs should be expected to significantly increase the fluid overpressures in shallow, sealed pressure compartments that experience erosion or water level drops, even if the water level drop duration exceeds one million years. Enough relationships between the calculated overpressure formation and the main controlling factors are provided in order to enable readers to make inferences about a variety of geological settings. Analyses of simulation results prompt us to suggest that pockmarks are likely to be triggered by gas expansion in vertical fluid migration pathways, that the giant craters at the seabed west of Albatross South in the Barents Sea result from hydrate dissociation, and that overpressure build-up due to gas expansion has contributed to reservoir overpressuring in many eroded basins, including the Hammerfest Basin in the Barents Sea.     

Channel evolution of Des Moines Lobe till drainage ditches in southern Minnesota (USA)

Some drainage ditches in the intensively managed row-crop agricultural region of southern Minnesota evolved from a trapezoidal form to multi-staged channel forms similar to natural streams. Older ditches constructed in cohesive sediment of the Des Moines Lobe till tend to follow a channel evolution model developed by Simon and Hupp. Site cross sections, longitudinal water and bed profiles and bed material particle size were determined according to Harrelson and others at 24 older ditch reaches, 5 newly constructed ditch reaches and 13 natural stream reaches. Morphological features were hypothesized to change from trapezoidal form to flat bench banks, similar to benches found in natural stream channels. All data were statistically analyzed with respect to drainage area using regression, because channel form is directly related to drainage area for a given climate, geology and land use. Results show similar regression slope and intercept for bankfull channel width and bankfull cross-sectional area (CSA) of older ditches and natural streams compared to typical trapezoidal designed ditches. Evolved ditches developed a small floodplain bench above the ditch bed and adjusted their bankfull widths similar to natural stream channels with respect to drainage area. Old ditches showed a relatively strong R ² (0.82, 0.68) for channel CSA and width, a weaker R ² (0.45) for water surface slope, and little to no correlation with bed particle size. Channel form appears to have adjusted more quickly than bed facets and/or bed particle size distribution. However, stepwise regression determined that D₈₄, width/depth ratio and mean bankfull depth explained 83?% of the variability of channel features across varying drainage areas. Findings suggest a possible reduction of long-term maintenance costs if older ditches are allowed to evolve over time. A stable ditch form similar to natural streams is typically self-sustaining, suggesting that prior to a scheduled clean-out, the ditch should be examined for hydraulic capacity, sediment transport and bank stability.     

Effect of groundwater pH and ionic strength on strontium sorption in aquifer sediments: Implications for Sr mobility at contaminated nuclear sites

Strontium-90 is a beta emitting radionuclide produced during nuclear fission, and is a problem contaminant at many nuclear facilities. Transport of ⁹⁰Sr in groundwaters is primarily controlled by sorption reactions with aquifer sediments. The extent of sorption is controlled by the geochemistry of the groundwater and sediment mineralogy. Here, batch sorption experiments were used to examine the sorption behaviour of ⁹⁰Sr in sediment–water systems representative of the UK Sellafield nuclear site based on groundwater and contaminant fluid compositions. In experiments with low ionic strength groundwaters (<0.01 mol L⁻¹), pH variation is the main control on sorption. The sorption edge for ⁹⁰Sr was observed between pH 4 and 6 with maximum sorption occurring (K_d ∼ 10³ L kg⁻¹) at pH 6–8. At ionic strengths above 10 mmol L⁻¹, and at pH values between 6 and 8, cation exchange processes reduced ⁹⁰Sr uptake to the sediment. This exchange process explains the lower ⁹⁰Sr sorption (K_d ∼ 40 L kg⁻¹) in the presence of artificial Magnox tank liquor (IS = 29 mmol L⁻¹). Strontium K-edge EXAFS spectra collected from sediments incubated with Sr²⁺ in either HCO₃-buffered groundwater or artificial Magnox tank liquor, revealed a coordination environment of ∼9 O atoms at 2.58–2.61 Å after 10 days. This is equivalent to the Sr²⁺ hydration sphere for the aqueous ion and indicates that Sr occurs primarily in outer sphere sorption complexes. No change was observed in the Sr sorption environment with EXAFS analysis after 365 days incubation. Sequential extractions performed on sediments after 365 days also found that ∼80% of solid associated ⁹⁰Sr was exchangeable with 1 M MgCl₂ in all experiments. These results suggest that over long periods, ⁹⁰Sr in contaminated sediments will remain primarily in weakly bound surface complexes. Therefore, if groundwater ionic strength increases (e.g. by saline intrusion related to sea level rise or by design during site remediation) then substantial remobilisation of ⁹⁰Sr is to be expected.