Satellite estimates and subpixel variability of rainfall in a semi-arid grassland

卫星估雨精度的不确定性受到当地降雨类型和像元内降雨非均匀性影响,而结合这两个关键因素开展半干旱草原卫星估雨的研究有限.2009年夏,我们在中国锡林郭勒半干旱草原用多部微雨雷达和雨量计构建了9 km卫星像元降雨观测网,观测了像元内降雨非均匀性(空间变异系数CV),并评估了卫星估雨精度.结果表明:(1)CV值受像元内平均降雨量,降雨类型,降雨云面积及移向等影响,如高Cv值的降雨过程大多为平均降雨量小,对流性降雨过程,降雨云边缘像元CV值较高;(2)TRMM 3B42V7卫星估雨产品适用性较好,CMORPH和PERSIANN次之,但TRMM 3B42V7易在半干旱草原湖泊处高估降雨.     

Carbon costs and benefits of France’s biomass energy production targets

Background

Concern about climate change has motivated France to reduce its reliance on fossil fuel by setting targets for increased biomass-based renewable energy production. This study quantifies the carbon costs and benefits for the French forestry sector in meeting these targets. A forest growth and harvest simulator was developed for French forests using recent forest inventory data, and the wood-use chain was reconstructed from national wood product statistics. We then projected wood production, bioenergy production, and carbon balance for three realistic intensification scenarios and a business-as-usual scenario. These intensification scenarios targeted either overstocked, harvest-delayed or currently actively managed stands.

Results

All three intensification strategies produced 11.6–12.4 million tonnes of oil equivalent per year of wood-based energy by 2026, which corresponds to the target assigned to French wood-energy to meet the EU 2020 renewable energy target. Sustaining this level past 2026 will be challenging, let alone further increasing it. Although energy production targets can be reached, the management intensification required will degrade the near-term carbon balance of the forestry sector, compared to continuing present-day management. Even for the best-performing intensification strategy, i.e., reducing the harvest diameter of actively managed stands, the carbon benefits would only become apparent after 2040. The carbon balance of a strategy putting abandoned forests back into production would only break even by 2055; the carbon balance from increasing thinning in managed but untended stands would not break even within the studied time periods, i.e. 2015–2045 and 2046–2100. Owing to the temporal dynamics in the components of the carbon balance, i.e., the biomass stock in the forest, the carbon stock in wood products, and substitution benefits, the merit order of the examined strategies varies over time.

Conclusions

No single solution was found to improve the carbon balance of the forestry sector by 2040 in a way that also met energy targets. We therefore searched for the intensification scenario that produces energy at the lowest carbon cost. Reducing rotation time of actively managed stands is slightly more efficient than targeting harvest-delayed stands, but in both cases, each unit of energy produced has a carbon cost that only turns into a benefit between 2060 and 2080.

     

Geoarchaeological evidence on a Late Bronze Age earthquake,Ohrid Basin (North Macedonia)

Geoarchaeological investigations on the northeastern shore of Lake Ohrid revealed 3.5 m thick deepwater lacustrine sediments overlying terrestrial vegetation macrofossils, worked wood and abundant potsherds dated to the Late Bronze Age (LBA). Distinct contact of deepwater sediment with the sub-aerial weathered limestone bedrock point to a sudden increase in lake level. According to radiocarbon data, catastrophic flooding occurred shortly after 1214 yr bc. Because the area is located in a highly active seismic zone, we propose that this event was caused by tectonically induced, metre-scale coseismic subsidence related to faults bordering the Ohrid alluvial plain. Moreover, this event coincides well with a dramatic switch in the habitation and settlement strategy in the region. More important, however, is the finding that the age of the proposed massive tectonic event and change in habitation lies within the interval of the proposed ‘earthquake storm’ in the eastern Mediterranean dated to 1225–1175 bc. As the Ohrid-Korça zone belongs to the same tectonic province, a relationship between the abovementioned earthquakes and the proposed event can be expected. This research therefore might provide the first direct evidence of a large-scale earthquake event linkable to the LBA collapse of Europe's first urban civilisation in the Aegean.     

Impoverishment of recent floodplain forest mollusc fauna in the lower Ohře River (Czech Republic) as a result of prehistoric human impact

Analyses of fossil mollusc successions have rarely been used to study the development of floodplain forests during the Holocene. The Oh?e River, located in a prehistorically settled chernozem area in the Czech Republic, is partly situated in Cretaceous marlstones, yielding sediments suitable for fossilization directly in floodplain deposits. We analysed five fossil mollusc successions situated in the lower stretch of the Oh?e River and compared the results with recent mollusc assemblages studied along the entire 256 km of the river. Fossil samples were composed mostly of open‐country species throughout the Holocene or the whole preserved succession. Only some samples also contained woodland assemblages, but these were always greatly impoverished, with a very low frequency of strictly woodland species. Although the natural‐looking appearance of the present‐day floodplain forests of the lower river stretch has resulted in its being declared a nature reserve, modern floodplain forest mollusc assemblages there are also impoverished. This reduction in the distribution of strictly woodland species compared with modern assemblages in the upper stretch of the river seems to be the result of an ancient human settlement and continuous disturbances of the floodplain forest development since the Neolithic. Thus, fully developed floodplain forest assemblages occur recently only in the upper non‐impacted stretch of the river. Based on the studied fossil successions we can conclude that the lower Oh?e River floodplain was probably a mosaic of open and disturbed forest habitats throughout the Holocene. This area is part of a central European landscape island, where forests probably never fully developed and open patches from the early Holocene continually developed into an agricultural landscape.     

Evaluating coastal scenery using fuzzy logic: Application at selected sites in Western Black Sea coastal region of Turkey

Coastal areas of the world are under treat due to the conflicting requirements of functions such as habitation and/or recreation, which affect the strategic asset of coastal scenery itself. Coastal managers, together with planners, need coastal landscape inventories, where the quality of coastal scenery is a part of the inventory. In order to provide an evidence-based approach for sound coastal management decisions, [Ergin et al., 2004] and [Ergin et al., 2006] developed a novel technique ‘coastal scenic evaluation’ (CSE), which addresses the evaluation of coastal scenery. The CSE technique utilizes fuzzy logic to derive values obtained from a checklist of 26 physical and human parameters. The methodology enables the calculation of an evaluation index (D), which categorizes the scenic values of coastal sites into five distinct classes. Using this technique, coastal scenic evaluations were carried out at 34 selected sites on the Western Black Sea coast of Turkey. Based on the calculated D values, a five-class differentiation was obtained for the selected sites, to provide baseline information for any envisaged subsequent management plans for these areas.     

GIS-based assessment of landslide susceptibility on the base of the Weights-of-Evidence model

The major scope of the study is the assessment of landslide susceptibility of Flysch areas including the Penninic Klippen in the Vienna Forest (Lower Austria) by means of Geographical Information System (GIS)-based modelling. A statistical/probabilistic method, referred to as Weights-of-Evidence (WofE), is applied in a GIS environment in order to derive quantitative spatial information on the predisposition to landslides. While previous research in this area concentrated on local geomorphological, pedological and slope stability analyses, the present study is carried out at a regional level. The results of the modelling emphasise the relevance of clay shale zones within the Flysch formations for the occurrence of landslides. Moreover, the distribution of mass movements is closely connected to the fault system and nappe boundaries. An increased frequency of landslides is observed in the proximity to drainage lines, which can change to torrential conditions after heavy rainfall. Furthermore, landslide susceptibility is enhanced on N-W facing slopes, which are exposed to the prevailing direction of wind and rainfall. Both of the latter geofactors indirectly show the major importance of the hydrological conditions, in particular, of precipitation and surface runoff, for the occurrence of mass movements in the study area. Model performance was checked with an independent validation set of landslides, which are not used in the model. An area of 15% of the susceptibility map, classified as highly susceptible, “predicted” 40% of the landslides.     

Stick-slip unstable shear failure as a source of high frequency elastic radiation

Summary The results of laboratory measurements on square perspex models with a stress concentrator under uniaxial compression are presented. An attempt was made to interpret these results in order to determine the mutual relations between the mechanical parameters characterizing the treated models, including their focal zones, parameters of model loading, parameters of seismogenic displacement and parameters of radiated elastic pulses. Particular attention was given to the study of slip displacement, slip velocity, rupture velocity, nucleation points of rupture propagation, nucleation points of elastic radiation and to the frequency analysis of radiated pulses. Measurements of the displacement in the focal zone enabled us to determine the source function, to construct theoretical seismograms in a far field and to compare them with the real pulses from ultrasonic transducers located there. This allowed testing theoretical and experimental approaches to the study of how slip displacement, slip velocity and rupture velocity are related to the parameters of radiated pulses.     

Statistical analysis of values measured in condensating geodetic nets

Summary Procedure for verifying the agreement between parameters common to the basic and connecting trigonometric net. Procedure of determining the accuracy of the connecting net. This determination concerns not only the relativized accuracy of the points of the connecting network, but also the mutual accuracy of the points of the basic net relative to the points of the connecting net and the global accuracy of the resultant net. The procedure takes into account the accuracy of the points of the basic net which remain unchanged in computing the coordinates of new points.

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