里下河地区极端降水时空变化及未来趋势分析

随着全球变暖,极端天气事件逐渐增加,影响着社会经济发展,揭示区域极端降水时空变化对防洪减灾具有重要意义。基于1960—2019年的逐日降水,通过MK趋势检验、小波分析、重标极差以及克里金插值方法,从强度、频率和持续性三方面分析里下河地区的极端降水指数,并进一步探究其未来趋势变化。结果表明：（1）里下河地区多年平均降水为1017.25 mm,呈不显著增加趋势;空间分布差异明显,总体呈自西北向东南逐渐增加的分布。（2）研究区内各站点极端降水指数变化不同,总体而言,极端降水强度、频率均呈现增加趋势,持续性呈减少趋势。（3）极端降水指数变化过程中存在3类尺度的周期性变化,在整个时间尺度上存在3个偏多中心和2个偏少中心。（4）除R10mm和R20mm未来变化趋势与过去趋势相反且呈弱持续性,其他极端降水指数未来变化趋势与过去相一致,且过去总体趋势对未来趋势的影响时间长度在9~16年左右。研究结果为里下河地区科学合理应对气象灾害、合理配置水资源提供依据。     

国外钻井工具与仪器新进展及国内发展建议

页岩气、致密油气、深井超深井油气和深水油气的勘探开发对钻井工具与仪器提出了更高要求。本文介绍了国外钻井工具与仪器的新进展,钻井工具包括高效破岩钻头（Aegis铠装合金钻头、Crush＆Shear?混合式钻头、智能自适应钻头、StrataBlade*凹面金刚石元件钻头和HyperBlade*双曲面金刚石元件钻头）、辅助破岩工具（Navi-Drill DuraMax井下马达、NitroForce?高性能螺杆和耐温300 ℃螺杆钻具）和循环短节（iCWD智能循环短节、iDisc智能循环和丢手工具、MOCS G2循环短节和JetStream?RFID循环短节）,而钻井仪器包括旋转导向工具（Lucida高端旋转导向系统、RST旋转导向系统、VectorEDGE旋转导向系统、HALO高性能旋转导向系统和NeoSteer@bit导向系统）和随钻测量仪器（TruLink*高分辨率动态MWD、IriSphere*随钻前视LWD、HEX200℃高温LWD和Quest^TM随钻陀螺测斜仪）。在此基础上,对国内钻井工具与仪器的未来发展提出了建议。最后指出我国应尽快完成核心钻井工具与仪器的国产化,继续加大低成本替代技术的研究力度,以实现经济有效开发。     

热力学计算模拟对初始月幔结构的约束SCIEI北大核心CSCD

月球岩浆洋结晶形成的初始月球内部结构是其后续演化过程的开端,其结晶过程受月球岩浆洋的初始深度和物质组成这两个参数的制约。由于缺少直接来自月球深部的岩石样品,目前关于月球岩浆洋演化过程的探讨主要依赖实验和计算模拟手段。岩浆洋模型中形成的月壳厚度是否与探测结果一致是月球岩浆洋演化模型合理性的重要约束。最新的GRAIL(Gravity Recovery and Interior Laboratory)探测数据推算月壳厚度为34~43km,低于阿波罗时期认为的约70km,这对已有的月球岩浆洋演化模型提出了挑战。本文采用并修正FXMOTR程序包,针对月球岩浆洋在不同的初始深度和物质组成情况下的结晶过程,进行了一系列热力学计算模拟。通过量化月球岩浆洋的初始深度和物质组成对月壳厚度的影响,结合关于月球内部微量元素分配的研究结果,对比了月球岩浆洋结晶后期的残余熔体与原始克里普组分(urKREEP)的成分。本文的模拟结果显示,一个全月幔熔融且初始成分为月球初始上月幔组成(LPUM)的岩浆洋将在其深部结晶2.5%石榴子石,形成的月壳厚度符合GRAIL的约束,并且结晶出了合适的urKREEP成分。在此模型的基础上获取了月球初始的内部成分和密度结构,并对后期月幔翻转(Overturn)的程度进行了探讨。     

Ore-forming Fluid Characteristics of the Saishitang Cu-polymetallic Deposit in Qinghai Province, China

Saishitang Cu-polymetallic deposit is located in the southeast section of Late Paleozoic arcfold in the southeastern margin of Qaidam platform. Accoring to the geological process of the deposit,four mineralization episodes were identified: melt/fluid coexisting period(O),skarn period(A),first sulfide period(B) and second sulfide period(C),and 10 stages were finally subdivided. Three types of inclusions were classified in seven stages,namely crystal bearing inclusions(type I),aqueous inclusions(type II) and pure liquid inclusions(type III). Type I and II inclusions were observed in stage O1,having homogenization temperature from 252 to 431°C,and salinities ranging from 24.3% to 48.0%. Type I inclusion was present in stage A1,having homogenization temperature from 506 to 548°C,and salinities ranging from 39.4% to 44.6%. In stage B1,type II and III inclusions were observed,with homogenization temperature concentrating between 300–400°C,and salinities from 0.4% to 4.3%. Type II inclusions were present in stage B2,with homogenization temperature varying from 403 to 550°C. In stage C1,type I and II inclusion commonly coexisted,and constituted a boiling inclusion group,having homogenization temperatures at 187–463°C,and salinities in a range of 29.4%–46.8% and 2.2%–11.0%. Type II and III inclusions were developed in stage C2,having homogenization temperature at 124–350°C,and salinities ranging between 1.6% and 15.4%. In stage C3,type II and III inclusions were presented,with a homogenization temperature range of 164–360°C,and salinities varying from 4.0% to 11.0%. The results of micro-thermal analysis show that fluids are characterized by high temperature and high salinity in stage O1 and A1,and experienced slight decrease in temperature and dramatic decrease in salinity in stage B1 and B2. In stage C1,the salinity of fluid increased greatly and a further decrease of temperature and salinity occurred in stage C2 and C3. Fluids boiled in stage C1. With calculated pressure of 22 MPa from the trapping temperature of 284–289°C,a mineralization depth of 2.2 km was inferred. Results of Laser Raman Spectroscopy show high density of H2 O,CH4 and CO2 were found as gas composition. H-O isotope study indicates the oreforming fluids were the mixture of magmatic water and meteoric water. Physicochemical parameters of fluids show oxygen and sulfur fugacity experienced a decrease,and redox state is weakly reducing. Along with fluid evolution,oxidation has increased slightly. Comprehensive analysis shows that melt exsolution occurred during the formation of quartz diorite and that metal elements existed and migrated in the form of chlorine complex. Immiscible fluid separation and boiling widely occurred after addition of new fluids,bringing about dissociation of chlorine-complex,resulting in a great deal of copper precipitation. In conclusion,Saishitang deposit,controlled by regional tectonics,is formed by metasomatism between highly fractionated mineralization rock body and wall rock,and belongs to banded skarn Cu-polymetallic deposit.     

一种面向异常检测的高光谱图像降维算法

针对高光谱数据预处理中传统降维算法的不足,文章提出采用线性局部切空间排列(LLTSA)算法进行降维,并在低维空间中,以数据点到背景流形的最小距离为度量进行异常目标检测。面向异常目标检测问题的降维算法,需要考虑计算量和异常污染两个问题:为减少计算量,选择图像中一部分具有代表性的训练数据进行LLTSA降维并求取用于泛化的投影矩阵;为避免异常信息对背景特性的影响,应该选择不含异常的背景训练数据建立背景流形。背景训练点的选择基于递归多层分割算法,结合分割块的大小和分割块被近邻点重构的误差,去除分割结果中可能包含异常的区域并尽可能多地保留背景信息。实验结果表明LLTSA可以利用少数特征有效区分背景和异常,基于LLTSA的检测算法比经典RX和核RX算法具有更好的异常检测性能。     

浙江省国内旅游流系统网络结构演变研究

运用社会网络理论的块模型、网络密度、网络中心性,结合锡尔指数、ArcGIS空间分析方法,基于省外客流的面板数据,研究近十年来浙江省大尺度国内旅游流系统网络结构演变特征。结果发现:1)旅游流网络系统整体变化缓慢,局部变化明显。客源网络系统与目的地网络系统联系在加强,客流有向主要客源地和主要目的地集中态势。目的地地带间网络中心性整体锡尔系数呈现先降后升,总体处于波动增加趋势。2)客源地、目的地中心性与块的密度值呈正比例关系。旅游流网络空间系统演变过程,体现了总体稳定性和自相似性的空间等级特征。3)浙江省省外旅游流目的地系统网络结构,形成了"一个核心—边缘旅游带,四级城市,五级旅游区"的空间等级结构。客源地网络空间格局具有明显的"核心—边缘,圈层等级扩散"特征。     

在海洋环境中的酵母菌分布与多样性

最近几年作者对不同海洋环境中的酵母资源、分布和多样性进行的大量研究,从中发现了22属63种1051株。并且发现这些广泛分布在海水、海泥、高盐海水、深海、各种大型海藻表面、各种海鱼体表和体内和红树林生态系统中。不同种的酵母可以产生蛋白酶、脂酶、植酸酶、菊糖酶、纤维素酶、β-1,3-葡聚酶、嗜杀因子、核黄素、铁载体等活性产物,所以这些酵母菌具有广泛的实际用途。     

THE RELATIONSHIP OF THE PRECEDING WINTER MJO ACTIVITIES AND THE SUMMER PRECIPITATION IN YANGTZE-HUAIHE RIVER BASIN OF CHINA

The first two series(RMM1 and RMM2) of RMM Index(all-Season Real-time Multivariate MJO Index) are computed to obtain the interannual variation of the preceding winter(preceding December to current February) MJO strength,according to which active(or inactive) years of preceding winter MJO are divided.By utilizing the data provided by NCEP/NCAR,CMAP and China’s 160 stations from 1979 to 2008,we studied the preceding winter MJO strength and discovered that the summer precipitation in the basin are of significantly negative correlation,i.e.when the preceding winter MJO is relatively active,the summer precipitation in the basin decreases,and vise verse.We also analyzed the causes.When the preceding winter MJO is relatively active,its release of potential heat facilities Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone(ITCZ) to strengthen and locate northward in winter and propagate northeastward.This abnormal situation lasts from winter to summer.In mid-May,ITCZ jumps northward to the South China Sea,the western Pacific subtropical high withdraws eastward,and the South China Sea summer monsoon sets off and strengthens.In summer,ITCZ propagates to South China Sea-subtropical western Pacific,the zonal circulation of subtropical Pacific strengthens,and a local meridional circulation of the South China Sea to the basin area forms,giving rise to the East Asia Pacific teleconnection wave-train.An East Asian monsoon trough and the Meiyu front show opposite features from south to north,the East Asian summer monsoon strengthens and advances northward.As a result,the summer monsoon is weakened as the basin is controlled by the subtropical high continually,with less rain in summer.On the contrary,when the preceding winter MJO is inactive,ITCZ weakens and is located southward,the subtropical high is located southward in summer,and the basin is in a region of ascending airflow with prevailing southwest wind.The East Asian monsoon trough and EASM weaken so that summer monsoon is reduced in the basin where precipitation increases.     

导线覆冰极值的概率分布模拟及其应用试验

利用南方地区多个气象站和电力部门观冰站的导线覆冰逐日冰厚资料,将广义极值分布和广义帕雷托分布引入导线覆冰的概率模型研究中,通过超门限覆冰次数的泊松分布拟合检验,结合H ill图解,提出了基于超门限峰值法门限值的确定方法;对两种分布在导线覆冰极值模型拟合的适用性研究表明,广义帕雷托分布对各站覆冰冰厚极值的拟合精度最高;重现期冰厚极值估计随样本长度的变化分析表明,广义帕雷托分布模型极值估计的稳定性比广义极值分布强,一般样本容量达到25 a左右时,广义帕雷托分布重现期冰厚极值的估计趋于稳定,可以作为短序列下估计导线覆冰极值的较好方法。     

一次梅雨锋暴雨云物理特征的数值模拟研究

利用中尺度数值模式MM5(V3.6),选用模式中不同的显式云物理方案,对2003年7月4-5日发生在江淮流域的梅雨锋暴雨过程进行了数值模拟,并根据模拟结果对造成此次暴雨过程的对流云团的微物理特征进行了分析.研究结果表明:(1) 具有详细云物理过程的中尺度模式MM5对短时强降水过程具有较好的模拟能力,提高MM5模式的分辨率,可以更好地模拟短时梅雨锋暴雨过程,模式中的Goddard云物理方案的模拟结果要优于Reisner方案和Schultz方案.(2) 梅雨锋对流云团是一种复杂的固、液、气三相混合体结构,在云体区域内的平均质量密度分布中,水汽的质量密度最大,其次是霰,而冰晶、雪、云水和雨水的质量密度较小且数值大小彼此接近,各种相态粒子质量密度峰值出现的高度随时间无明显变化.雨水、云冰和霰的质量密度随时间演变规律与地面降水强度的变化特征相一致,近地面层水汽密度随时间的演变规律比地面降水强度提前1-2个小时,水汽通量的辐合对暴雨时段内水汽的补充和维持起到了重要的作用.(3) 除了最基本的云水向雨水转化的云微物理过程之外,此次降水过程还显示,在中层500-700 hPa范围内雪、冰晶等冰相粒子首先转化为霰粒子,而霰和云水的结合进一步加速(剧)云水向雨水的转换,成为短时特大暴雨形成不可或缺的动力机制,云物理过程中的相变潜热与对流运动的正反馈机制是促进暴雨维持和发展的最重要热力因子.