Traversing nature's danger zone: getting up close with Sumatra's volcanoes

The Indonesian island of Sumatra, located in one of the most active zones of the Pacific Ring of Fire, is characterized by a chain of subduction‐zone volcanoes which extend the entire length of the island. As a group of volcanic geochemists, we embarked upon a five‐week sampling expedition to these exotic, remote, and in part explosive volcanoes (SAGE 2010; Sumatran Arc Geochemical Expedition). We set out to collect rock and gas samples from 17 volcanic centres from the Sumatran segment of the Sunda arc system, with the aim of obtaining a regionally significant sample set that will allow quantification of the respective roles of mantle versus crustal sources to magma genesis along the strike of the arc. Here we document our geological journey through Sumatra's unpredictable terrain, including the many challenges faced when working on active volcanoes in pristine tropical climes.     

Forecasting flows in Apalachicola River using neural networks

Forecasting river flow is important to water resources management and planning. In this study, an artificial neural network (ANN) model was successfully developed to forecast river flow in Apalachicola River. The model used a feed‐forward, back‐propagation network structure with an optimized conjugated training algorithm. Using long‐term observations of rainfall and river flow during 1939–2000, the ANN model was satisfactorily trained and verified. Model predictions of river flow match well with the observations. The correlation coefficients between forecasting and observation for daily, monthly, quarterly and yearly flow forecasting are 0·98, 0·95, 0·91 and 0·83, respectively. Results of the forecasted flow rates from the ANN model were compared with those from a traditional autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) forecasting model. Results indicate that the ANN model provides better accuracy in forecasting river flow than does the ARIMA model. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Extended time weather forecasts contributes to agricultural productivity estimates

Weather conditions in critical periods of the vegetative crop development influence crop productivity, thus being a basic parameter for crop forecast. Reliable extended period weather forecasts may contribute to improve the estimation of agricultural productivity. The production of soybean plays an important role in the Brazilian economy, because this country is ranked among the largest producers of soybeans in the world. This culture can be significantly affected by water conditions, depending on the intensity of water deficit. This work explores the role of extended period weather forecasts for estimating soybean productivity in the southern part of Brazil, Passo Fundo, and Londrina (State of Rio Grande do Sul and Paraná, respectively) in the 2005/2006 harvest. The goal was to investigate the possible contribution of precipitation forecasts as a substitute for the use of climatological data on crop forecasts. The results suggest that the use of meteorological forecasts generate more reliable productivity estimates during the growth period than those generated only through climatological information.     

The loss of New Zealand's active dunes and the spread of marram grass (Ammophila arenaria)

Abstract:  This article examines the decline of New Zealand's active dunes in relation to the introduction of marram grass ( Ammophila arenaria ). The area of active dunes in New Zealand declined from 129 000 ha in the early 1900s to about 39 000 ha in 2000; a reduction of 70%. The extent of active dunes has declined since the 1950s in all regions, particularly in Northland, Auckland and the Manawatu. The loss of active dunes on the west coast of the North Island resulted primarily from the introduction of marram grass, followed by the establishment of Pinus radiata plantations and extensive pastoral farming. Between 1985 and 2005 marram grass extended its range to the detriment of the indigenous foredune flora. Conservation and resource management agencies should urgently identify dune systems for conservation management and marram grass eradication.     

The CO2-He-Ar-H2O systematics of the manus back-arc basin: resolving source composition from degassing and contamination effects

We report new stepped heating He, Ar, CO₂ and water data on a petrogenetically diverse suite of lavas from the Manus back-arc basin, where a plume component has previously been identified. The aim of this study is to evaluate the superimposed effects of degassing and contamination in order to identify mantle source characteristics. CO₂ abundances and carbon isotopes in both the vesicle ([CO₂] up to 180ppm; δ¹³C as low as -33.6 ‰) and glass ([CO₂] up to 270ppm; δ¹³C as low as -34.3 ‰) phases reveal that samples have been modified by varying degrees of degassing. High water concentration samples (back-arc basin basalts (BABB) and arc type samples) show the highest degrees of degassing (i.e. lower δ¹³C values and lower CO₂ contents). The results are modelled for both the glass and vesicle phases using batch and fractional degassing models. Parental melt compositions can be constrained to show the following CO₂ concentration trend: arc-type > BABB s.r. (southern rift) > MORB-2, E-MORB, X-BABB (extreme BABB), BABB > MORB-1 and MORB-smt. ⁴He/⁴⁰Ar∗ ratios of samples (14.6-1100) are consistent with residual volatiles from a degassed source. Variations in CO₂/³He values are likely due to degassing, followed by contamination from a crustal source (either the subducting Solomon Sea Plate or the pre-existing crust through which the lavas erupt), as evidenced by high K₂O/TiO₂ ratios and low δ¹³C. The CO₂/³He of the Manus plume is best estimated by the MORB-smt and MORB-1 samples at 3.1 ± 0.6 x 10⁹. This value is similar to previous estimates of plume CO₂/³He values, which are either equal to or slightly greater than the upper mantle average of 2 x 10⁹.     

The residential segregation of San Antonio,Texas in 1910: an analysis of ethno-racial and occupational spatial patterns with the colocation quotient

The segregation of cities can be traced to a time when the compartmentalization of space and people was based on factors other than race. In segregation research, one of the limiting factors has always been the geographic scale of the data, and the limited knowledge that exists of segregation patterns when the household is the unit of analysis. Historical census data provides the opportunity to analyze the disaggregated information, and this paper does so with San Antonio during 1910. A spatial analysis of residential segregation based on race, ethnicity, and occupations is carried out with the colocation quotient to map and measure the attraction of residents. Results reveal the presence of residential segregation patterns on different sectors of the city based on households’ ethno-racial and occupational attributes; therefore, providing evidence of the existence of residential segregation prior to the commonly cited determinants of segregation of the 20th century.     

Achieving development and mitigation objectives through a decarbonization development pathway in South Africa

Achieving the international 2 °C limit climate policy requires stringent reductions in GHG emissions by mid-century, with some countries simultaneously facing development-related challenges. South Africa is a middle-income developing country with high rates of unemployment and high levels of poverty, as well as an emissions-intensive economy. South Africa takes into account an assessment of what a fair contribution to reducing global emissions might be, and is committed to a ‘peak, plateau and decline' emissions trajectory with absolute emissions specified for 2025 and 2030, while noting the need to address development imperatives. This work utilizes an economy-wide computable general equilibrium model (e-SAGE) linked to an energy-system optimization model (TIMES) to explore improving development metrics within a 14 GtCO₂e cumulative energy sector carbon constraint through to 2050 for South Africa. The electricity sector decarbonizes by retiring coal-fired power plants or replacing with concentrated solar power, solar photovoltaics and wind generation. Industry and tertiary-sector growth remains strong throughout the time period, with reduced energy intensity via fuel-switching and efficiency improvements. From 2010 to 2050, the model results in the unemployment rate decreasing from 25% to 12%, and the percentage of people living below the poverty line decreasing from 49% to 18%. Total energy GHG emissions were reduced by 39% and per capita emissions decreased by 62%.

Policy relevance

Lower poverty and inequality are goals that cannot be subordinated to lower GHG emissions. Policy documents in South Africa outline objectives such as reducing poverty and inequality with a key focus on education and employment. In its climate policy and Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC), South Africa is committed to a peak, plateau and decline GHG emissions trajectory. As in many developing countries, these policy goals require major transformations in the energy system while simultaneously increasing affordable access to safe and convenient energy services for those living in energy poverty. The modelled scenario in this work focuses on employment and poverty reduction under a carbon constraint, a novel combination with results that can provide information for a holistic climate and development policy framework. This study has focused on the long term, which is important in generating clear policy signals for the necessary large-scale investments.     

WHEN THE URBAN FRINGE IS NOT SUBURBAN*

Research on the history of suburbs tends to either disregard the fringe of urban development or locate it beyond the city limits. In this article I argue that compounding fringe and suburban development misrepresents the real differences between the two. I then examine the metropolitan regions of three major U.S. cities‐Baltimore, Buffalo, and Saint Louis in 1880 for evidence of how they differed. A consistent difference emerged between the residents of the suburban districts of a city and those of the presumed location of the fringe.     

Geochemical Monitoring of Geothermal Waters (2002–2004) along the North Anatolian Fault Zone, Turkey: Spatial and Temporal Variations and Relationship to Seismic Activity

A total of nine geothermal fields located along an 800-km long E-W transect of the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ), Turkey were monitored for three years (2002–2004 inclusive; 3-sampling periods per year) to investigate any possible relationship between seismic activity and temporal variations in the chemistry and isotope characteristics of waters in the fields. The geothermal fields monitored in the study were, from west to east, Yalova, Efteni, Bolu, Mudurnu, Seben, Kur?unlu-Çank?r?, Hamamözü, Gözlek and Re?adiye. The chemical (major anion-cation contents) and isotopic (¹⁸O/¹⁶O, D/H, ³H) compositions of hot and cold waters of the geothermal sites were determined in order to both characterize the chemical nature of the individual fields and identify possible temporal variations associated with localized seismic activity. The geothermal waters associated with the NAFZ are dominantly Na-HCO₃, whereas the cold waters are of the Ca-HCO₃ type. The oxygen- and hydrogen-isotope compositions reveal that the hot waters are meteoric in origin as are their cold water counterparts. However, the lower δ¹⁸O, δD and ³H contents of the hot waters point to the fact that they are older than the cold waters, and that their host aquifers are recharged from higher altitudes with virtually no input from recent (post-bomb) precipitation. Although no major earthquakes (e.g., with M ≥ 5) were recorded along the NAFZ during the course of the monitoring period, variations in the chemical and isotopic compositions of some waters were observed. Indeed, the timing of the chemical/isotopic changes seems to correlate with the occurrence of seismic activity of moderate magnitude (3 < M < 5) close to the sampling sites. In this respect, Cl, ³H and Ca seem to be the most sensitive tracers of seismically-induced crustal perturbations, and the Yalova and Efteni fields appear to be the key localities where the effects of seismic activity on the geothermal fluids are most pronounced over the monitoring period. The present study has produced a ‘baseline’ database for future studies directed at characterizing the effects of moderate-major earthquakes on the composition of geothermal waters along the NAFZ. Future work involving longer monitoring periods with more frequent sampling intervals should lead to a better understanding of the underlying mechanism(s) producing the observed chemical and isotopic variations.