Future cereal production in China: The interaction of climate change,water availability and socio-economic scenarios

Food production in China is a fundamental component of the national economy and driver of agricultural policy. Sustaining and increasing output to meet growing demand faces significant challenges including climate change, increasing population, agricultural land loss and competing demands for water. Recent warming in China is projected to accelerate by climate models with associated changes in precipitation and frequency of extreme events. How changes in cereal production and water availability due to climate change will interact with other socio-economic pressures is poorly understood. By linking crop and water simulation models and two scenarios of climate (derived from the Regional Climate Model PRECIS) and socio-economic change (downscaled from IPCC SRES A2 and B2) we demonstrate that by the 2040s the absolute effects of climate change are relatively modest. The interactive effects of other drivers are negative, leading to decreases in total production of ?18% (A2) and ?9% (B2). Outcomes are highly dependent on climate scenario, socio-economic development pathway and the effects of CO₂ fertilization on crop yields which may almost totally offset the decreases in production. We find that water availability plays a significant limiting role on future cereal production, due to the combined effects of higher crop water requirements (due to climate change) and increasing demand for non-agricultural use of water (due to socio-economic development). Without adaptation, per capita cereal production falls in all cases, by up to 40% of the current baseline.By simulating the effects of three adaptation scenarios we show that for these future scenarios China is able to maintain per capita cereal production, given reasonable assumptions about policies on land and water management and progress in agricultural technology. Our results are optimistic because PRECIS simulates much wetter conditions than a multi-model average, the CO₂ crop yield response function is highly uncertain and the effects of extreme events on crop growth and water availability are likely to be underestimated.     

Performance and Sustainability of District-Scale Ground Coupled Heat Pump Systems

This study proposes a solution to the problem of maintaining the performance and sustainability of district-scale, cooling-dominated ground coupled heat pump (GCHP) systems. These systems tend to overheat because heat dissipates slowly in relation to the size of the borefields. To demonstrate this problem, a 2000-borehole field is considered at a district-scale GCHP system in the Upper Midwest, US. The borefield’s ground and fluid temperature responses to its design heating and cooling loads are simulated using computational fluid dynamics implemented by applying the finite volume method. The ground temperature is predicted by applying the thermal loads uniformly over the borefield and simulating heat dissipation to the surrounding geology through conduction coupled with advection due to groundwater flow. The results show that a significant energy imbalance will develop in the ground after the first few years of GCHP operation, even with high rates of groundwater flow. The model presented in this study predicts that the temperature at the center of the borefield will reach 18 °C after 5 years and approximately 50 °C after 20 years of operation in the absence of any mitigation strategies. The fluid temperature in the boreholes is then simulated using a single borehole model to estimate the heat pump coefficient of performance, which decreases as the modeled system heats up. To balance the energy inputs/outputs to the ground—thus maintaining the system’s performance—an operating scheme utilizing cold-water circulation during the winter is evaluated. Under the simulated conditions, this mitigation strategy carries the excess energy out of the borefield. Therefore, the proposed mitigation strategy may be a viable measure to sustaining the operating efficiency of cooling-dominated, district-scale borefields in climates with cold winters.     

Individual lava flow thicknesses in Oceanus Procellarum and Mare Serenitatis determined from Clementine multispectral data

We use multispectral reflectance data from the lunar Clementine mission to investigate the impact ejecta deposits of simple craters in two separate lunar mare basalt regions, one in Oceanus Procellarum and one in Mare Serenitatis. Over 100 impact craters are studied, and for a number of these we observe differences between the TiO₂ (and FeO) contents of their ejecta deposits and the lava flow units in which they are located. We demonstrate that, in the majority of cases, these differences cannot plausibly be attributed to uncorrected maturity effects. These observations, coupled with morphometric crater relationships that provide maximum crater excavation depths, allow the investigation of sub-surface lava flow stratigraphy. We provide estimated average thicknesses for a number of lava flow units in the two study regions, ranging from ∼80 m to ∼600 m. In the case of the Serenitatis study area, our results are consistent with the presence of sub-surface horizons inferred from recent radar sounding measurements from the JAXA Kaguya spacecraft. The average lava flow thicknesses we obtain are used to make estimates of the average flux of volcanic material in these regions. These are in broad agreement with previous studies, suggesting that the variation in mare basalt types we observe with depth is similar to the lateral variations identified at the surface.     

Asteroseismology of solar and stellar models

I discuss several asteroseismology diagnostic techniques that can be applied to the high quality data on stellar oscillations obtained, and to be obtained in the future, from ground based and space based experiments. In particular I discuss techniques using the representation of oscillation frequencies in terms of inner and outer phase shifts which can be used both for model fitting and inversion procedures to probe the inner structure of stars, and hence to test and improve our modelling.     

Diadromy and longitudinal patterns of upstream penetration of freshwater fish in Taranaki,New Zealand

Diadromous fish species dominate the New Zealand freshwater fish fauna and make up 15 of the 17 native fish species found on the Taranaki Ring Plain. Trajectories of occurrence in relation to elevation and distance from the sea are described for 11 diadromous and 2 non‐diadromous species using data from the New Zealand Freshwater Fish Database and data collected over the summer of 1997/ 98. Distinctive distributions were found for most of the species related to their differing migratory strategies and abilities. The species were ranked based on components of these trajectories to compare their penetrative ability. Comparison of the ranking methods used revealed they produced similar results. The ranking of the 11 diadromous species in Taranaki relative to each other revealed similar rankings to those for the same species from the West Coast of the South Island. The non‐migratory native fish, Cran's bully (Gobiomorphus basalis), was not found on the western side of the mountain. This distribution is thought to be the result of the local extinction of non‐migratory species in high gradient or unstable streams.     

Sea Surface Height Variability in the Indian Ocean from TOPEX/POSEIDON Altimetry and Model Simulations

Sea Surface Height (SSH) variability in the Indian Ocean during 1993-1995 is studied using TOPEX/POSEIDON (T/P) altimetry data. Strong interannual variability is seen in the surface circulation of the western Arabian Sea, especially in the Somali eddy structure. During the Southwest (SW) monsoon, a weak monsoon year is characterized by a single eddy system off Somalia, a strong or normal monsoon year by several energetic eddies. The Laccadive High (LH) and Laccadive Low (LL) systems off southwest India are observed in the altimetric SSH record. The variability of the East India Coastal Current (EICC), the western boundary current in the Bay of Bengal, is also detected. Evidence is found for the propagation of Kelvin and Rossby waves across the northern Indian Ocean; these are examined in the context of energy transfer to the western boundary currents, and associated eddies. A simple wind-driven isopycnal model having three active layers is implemented to simulate the seasonal changes of surface and subsurface circulation in the North Indian Ocean and to examine the response to different wind forcing. The wind forcing is derived from the ERS-1 scatterometer wind stress for the same period as the T/P altimeter data, enabling the model response in different (active/weak) monsoon conditions to be tested. The model output is derived in 10-day snapshots to match the time period of the T/P altimeter cycles. Complex Principal Component Analysis (CPCA) is applied to both altimetric and model SSH data. This confirms that long Rossby waves are excited by the remotely forced Kelvin waves off the southwest coast of India and contribute substantially to the variability of the seasonal circulation in the Arabian Sea.     

Wind-Direction Effects on Urban-Type Flows

Practically all extant work on flows over obstacle arrays, whether laboratory experiments or numerical modelling, is for cases where the oncoming wind is normal to salient faces of the obstacles. In the field, however, this is rarely the case. Here, simulations of flows at various directions over arrays of cubes representing typical urban canopy regions are presented and discussed. The computations are of both direct numerical simulation and large-eddy simulation type. Attention is concentrated on the differences in the mean flow within the canopy region arising from the different wind directions and the consequent effects on global properties such as the total surface drag, which can change very significantly—by up to a factor of three in some circumstances. It is shown that for a given Reynolds number the typical viscous forces are generally a rather larger fraction of the pressure forces (principally the drag) for non-normal than for normal wind directions and that, dependent on the surface morphology, the average flow direction deep within the canopy can be largely independent of the oncoming wind direction. Even for regular arrays of regular obstacles, a wind direction not normal to the obstacle faces can in general generate a lateral lift force (in the direction normal to the oncoming flow). The results demonstrate this and it is shown how computations in a finite domain with the oncoming flow generated by an appropriate forcing term (e.g. a pressure gradient) then lead inevitably to an oncoming wind direction aloft that is not aligned with the forcing term vector.     

Orebody Modelling for Exploration: The Western Mineralisation, Broken Hill, NSW

The Western Mineralisation in the Broken Hill deposit was studied to identify the zonation sequence of lithogeochemical haloes along and across the strike of the orebody. Samples used are from 77 drill holes and the samples were assayed for Pb, Zn, Fe, S, Cu, Ag, Cd, Sb, Bi and As. Variogram analyses were calculated for all the elements and kriging was used to construct the 3D block model. Analysis of cross sections along and across the strike of the orebody shows that Bi and Sb form broader halos around sulphide masses and this suggests that they are pathfinder elements for the Pb and Zn elements of this orebody. The threshold concentrations (minimum anomaly) of the 10 elements were determined using the concentration-area analysis. On east?Cwest vertical cross sections, the values of linear productivity, variability gradient and zonality index were calculated for each element. Based on the maximum zonality index of each element, the sequence of geochemical zonation pattern was determined from top to bottom of the orebody. The result shows that S, Pb, Zn and Cd tend to concentrate in the upper part of the mineralisation whereas Ag, Cu, Bi and As have a tendency to concentrate in the lower part of the mineralised rocks. Also, an empirical product ratio index was developed based on the position of the elements in the zonation sequence. The methods and results of this research are applicable to exploration of similar Zn and Pb sulphide ore deposits.     

The hydromagnesite playas of Atlin, British Columbia, Canada: A biogeochemical model for CO2 sequestration

Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions may be offset by sequestering carbon dioxide (CO₂) through the carbonation of magnesium silicate minerals to form magnesium carbonate minerals. The hydromagnesite [Mg₅(CO₃)₄(OH)₂·4H₂O] playas of Atlin, British Columbia, Canada provide a natural model to examine mineral carbonation on a watershed scale. At near surface conditions, CO₂ is biogeochemically sequestered by microorganisms that are involved in weathering of bedrock and precipitation of carbonate minerals. The purpose of this study was to characterize the weathering regime in a groundwater recharge zone and the depositional environments in the playas in the context of a biogeochemical model for CO₂ sequestration with emphasis on microbial processes that accelerate mineral carbonation.Regions with ultramafic bedrock, such as Atlin, represent the best potential sources of feedstocks for mineral carbonation. Elemental compositions of a soil profile show significant depletion of MgO and enrichment of SiO₂ in comparison to underlying ultramafic parent material. Polished serpentinite cubes were placed in the organic horizon of a coniferous forest soil in a groundwater recharge zone for three years. Upon retrieval, the cube surfaces, as seen using scanning electron microscopy, had been colonized by bacteria that were associated with surface pitting. Degradation of organic matter in the soil produced chelating agents and acids that contributed to the chemical weathering of the serpentinite and would be expected to have a similar effect on the magnesium-rich bedrock at Atlin. Stable carbon isotopes of groundwater from a well, situated near a wetland in the southeastern playa, indicate that  12% of the dissolved inorganic carbon has a modern origin from soil CO₂.The mineralogy and isotope geochemistry of the hydromagnesite playas suggest that there are three distinct depositional environments: (1) the wetland, characterized by biologically-aided precipitation of carbonate minerals from waters concentrated by evaporation, (2) isolated wetland sections that lead to the formation of consolidated aragonite sediments, and (3) the emerged grassland environment where evaporation produces mounds of hydromagnesite. Examination of sediments within the southeastern playa–wetland suggests that cyanobacteria, sulphate reducing bacteria, and diatoms aid in producing favourable geochemical conditions for precipitation of carbonate minerals.The Atlin site, as a biogeochemical model, has implications for creating carbon sinks that utilize passive microbial, geochemical and physical processes that aid in mineral carbonation of magnesium silicates. These processes could be exploited for the purposes of CO₂ sequestration by creating conditions similar to those of the Atlin site in environments, artificial or natural, where the precipitation of magnesium carbonates would be suitable. Given the vast quantities of Mg-rich bedrock that exist throughout the world, this study has significant implications for reducing atmospheric CO₂ concentrations and combating global climate change.     

In situ U-Pb, O and Hf isotopic compositions of zircon and olivine from Eoarchaean rocks, West Greenland: New insights to making old crust

The sources and petrogenetic processes that generated some of the Earth’s oldest continental crust have been more tightly constrained via an integrated, in situ (U-Pb, O and Hf) isotopic approach. The minerals analysed were representative zircon from four Eoarchaean TTG tonalites and two felsic volcanic rocks, and olivine from one harzburgite/dunite of the Itsaq Gneiss Complex (IGC), southern West Greenland. The samples were carefully chosen from localities with least migmatisation, metasomatism and strain. Zircon was thoroughly characterized prior to analysis using cathodoluminescence, scanning electron, reflected and transmitted light imaging. The zircon from all but one sample showed only minor post-magmatic recrystallisation. ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁶Pb dating of oscillatory-zoned zircon using SHRIMP RG (n = 142) indicates derivation of the felsic igneous rocks from different batches of magma at 3.88, 3.85, 3.81, 3.80 and 3.69 Ga.Analyses of ¹⁸O/¹⁶O compositions of olivine from a harzburgite/dunite (n = 8) using SHRIMP II in multi-collector mode, indicate that the oxygen isotopic composition of this sample of Eoarchaean mantle (δ¹⁸O_Ol = 6.0 ± 0.4‰) was slightly enriched in ¹⁸O, but not significantly different from that of the modern mantle. Zircon δ¹⁸O measurements from the six felsic rocks (n = 93) record mean or weighted mean compositions ranging from 4.9 ± 0.7‰ to 5.1 ± 0.4‰, with recrystallised domains showing no indication of oxygen isotopic exchange during younger tectonothermal events. δ¹⁸O_Zr compositions indicate that the primary magmas were largely in equilibrium with the mantle or mantle-derived melts generated at similar high temperatures, while calculated tonalite δ¹⁸O_WR compositions (6.7-6.9‰) resemble those of modern adakites.LA-MC-ICPMS zircon ¹⁷⁶Hf/¹⁷⁷Hf analyses were obtained from six samples (n = 122). Five samples record weighted mean initial ε_Hf compositions ranging from to 0.5 ± 0.6 to −0.1 ± 0.7 (calculated using λ¹⁷⁶Lu = 1.867 × 10⁻¹¹ yr⁻¹), while one sample records a composition of 1.3 ± 0.7, indicating the magmas were generated from a reservoir with a time averaged, near chondritic Lu/Hf. The derivation of TTG magmas from a chondritic Lu/Hf source implies either that there was not voluminous continental crustal growth nor major mantle differentiation leading to Lu/Hf fractionation during the Hadean or Eoarchaean, or alternatively that rapid recycling of an early formed crust allowed the early mantle to maintain a chondritic Lu/Hf.Previous studies have demonstrated that ancient TTG rocks were mostly produced by dehydration melting of mafic rocks within the stability field of garnet, probably in flatly-subducted or buried oceanic crust. The oxygen isotopic signatures measured here at high spatial resolution allow the source materials to be better defined. Melting of a mixed mafic source consisting of ∼80% unaltered gabbro (δ¹⁸O_WR = 5.5‰) with ∼20% hydrothermally altered gabbro/basalt (δ¹⁸O_WR = 4.0‰) would produce tonalite magmas within the average compositional range observed. ¹⁸O-enriched components such as altered shallow basaltic oceanic crust and pelagic or continental sediments were not present in the sources of these TTG melts. The absence of high ¹⁸O signatures may indicate either the rarity of low temperature altered sediments, or their effective removal from the down-going slab.