Semi-empirical prediction method for monthly precipitation prediction based on environmental factors and comparison with stochastic and machine learning models

ABSTRACT

Precipitation prediction is central in hydrology and water resources planning and management. This paper introduces a semi-empirical predictive model to predict monthly precipitation and compares its predictive skill with those of machine learning (ML) methods. The stochastic method presented herein estimates monthly precipitation with one-step-ahead prediction properties. The ML predictive skill of the algorithms is evaluated by predicting monthly precipitation relying on the statistical association between precipitation and environmental and topographic factors. The semi-empirical predictive model features non-negative matrix factorization (NMF) for investigating the influence of multiple predictor variables on precipitation. The semi-empirical predictive model’s parameters are optimized with the hybrid genetic algorithm (GA) and Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm (LM), or GALMA, yielding a validated model with high predictive skill. The methodologies are illustrated with data from Hubei Province, China, which comprise 27 meteorological station datasets from 1988–2017. The empirical results provide valuable insights for developing semi-empirical rainfall prediction models.     

Can climate variability information constrain a hydrological model for an ungauged Costa Rican catchment?

Long‐term hydrological data are key to understanding catchment behaviour and for decision making within water management and planning. Given the lack of observed data in many regions worldwide, such as Central America, hydrological models are an alternative for reproducing historical streamflow series. Additional types of information—to locally observed discharge—can be used to constrain model parameter uncertainty for ungauged catchments. Given the strong influence that climatic large‐scale processes exert on streamflow variability in the Central American region, we explored the use of climate variability knowledge as process constraints to constrain the simulated discharge uncertainty for a Costa Rican catchment, assumed to be ungauged. To reduce model uncertainty, we first rejected parameter relationships that disagreed with our understanding of the system. Then, based on this reduced parameter space, we applied the climate‐based process constraints at long‐term, inter‐annual, and intra‐annual timescales. In the first step, we reduced the initial number of parameters by 52%, and then, we further reduced the number of parameters by 3% with the climate constraints. Finally, we compared the climate‐based constraints with a constraint based on global maps of low‐flow statistics. This latter constraint proved to be more restrictive than those based on climate variability (further reducing the number of parameters by 66% compared with 3%). Even so, the climate‐based constraints rejected inconsistent model simulations that were not rejected by the low‐flow statistics constraint. When taken all together, the constraints produced constrained simulation uncertainty bands, and the median simulated discharge followed the observed time series to a similar level as an optimized model. All the constraints were found useful in constraining model uncertainty for an—assumed to be—ungauged basin. This shows that our method is promising for modelling long‐term flow data for ungauged catchments on the Pacific side of Central America and that similar methods can be developed for ungauged basins in other regions where climate variability exerts a strong control on streamflow variability.     

Transportation mode-based segmentation and classification of movement trajectories

The knowledge of the transportation mode used by humans (e.g. bicycle, on foot, car and train) is critical for travel behaviour research, transport planning and traffic management. Nowadays, new technologies such as the Global Positioning System have replaced traditional survey methods (paper diaries, telephone) because they are more accurate and problems such as under reporting are avoided. However, although the movement data collected (timestamped positions in digital form) have generally high accuracy, they do not contain the transportation mode. We present in this article a new method for segmenting movement data into single-mode segments and for classifying them according to the transportation mode used. Our fully automatic method differs from previous attempts for five reasons: (1) it relies on fuzzy concepts found in expert systems, that is membership functions and certainty factors; (2) it uses OpenStreetMap data to help the segmentation and classification process; (3) we can distinguish between 10 transportation modes (including between tram, bus and car) and propose a hierarchy; (4) it handles data with signal shortages and noise, and other real-life situations; (5) in our implementation, there is a separation between the reasoning and the knowledge, so that users can easily modify the parameters used and add new transportation modes. We have implemented the method and tested it with a 17-million point data set collected in the Netherlands and elsewhere in Europe. The accuracy of the classification with the developed prototype, determined with the comparison of the classified results with the reference data derived from manual classification, is 91.6%.     

Trace-element heterogeneity in rutile linked to dislocation structures: Implications for Zr-in-rutile geothermometry

The trace-element composition of rutile is commonly used to constrain P–T–t conditions for a wide range of metamorphic systems. However, recent studies have demonstrated the redistribution of trace elements in rutile via high-diffusivity pathways and dislocation-impurity associations related to the formation and evolution of microstructures. Here, we investigate trace-element migration in low-angle boundaries formed by dislocation creep in rutile within an omphacite vein of the Lago di Cignana unit (Western Alps, Italy). Zr-in-rutile thermometry and inclusions of quartz in rutile and of coesite in omphacite constrain the conditions of rutile deformation to around the prograde boundary from high pressure to ultra-high pressure (~2.7 GPa) at temperatures of 500–565°C. Crystal-plastic deformation of a large rutile grain results in low-angle boundaries that generate a total misorientation of ~25°. Dislocations constituting one of these low-angle boundaries are enriched in common and uncommon trace elements, including Fe and Ca, providing evidence for the diffusion and trapping of trace elements along the dislocation cores. The role of dislocation microstructures as fast-diffusion pathways must be evaluated when applying high-resolution analytical procedures as compositional disturbances might lead to erroneous interpretations for Ca and Fe. In contrast, our results indicate a trapping mechanism for Zr.