An Overview of Nowcasting Development, Applications, and Services in the Hong Kong Observatory

The Hong Kong Observatory （HKO） has been developing a suite of nowcasting systems to support op- erations of the forecasting center and to provide a variety of nowcasting services for the general public and specialized users. The core system is named the Short-range Warnings of Intense Rainstorm of Localized Systems （SWIRLS）, which is a radar-based nowcasting system mainly for the automatic tracking of the movement of radar echoes and the short-range Quantitative Precipitation Forecast （QPF）. The differential, integral （or variational）, and object-oriented tracking algorithms were developed and integrated into the nowcasting suite. In order to predict severe weather associated with intense thunderstorms, such as high gust, hail, and lightning, SWIRLS was enhanced to SWIRLS-II by introduction of a number of physical models, especially the icing physics as well as the thermodynamics of the atmosphere. SWIRLS-Ⅱ was further enhanced with non-hydrostatic, high resolution numerical models for extending the forecast range up to 6h ahead. Meanwhile, SWIRLS was also modified for providing nowcasting services for aviation community and specialized users. To take into account the rapid development of lightning events, ensemble nowcasting techniques such as time-lagged and weighted average ensemble approaches were also adopted in the nowcasting system. Apart from operational uses in Hong Kong, SWIRLS/SWIRLS-Ⅱ was also exported to other places to participate in several international events such as the WMO/WWRP Forecast Demon- stration Project （FDP） during the Beijing 2008 Olympics Games and the Shanghai Expo 2010. Meanwhile, SWIRLS has also been transferred to various regional meteorological organizations for establishing their nowcasting infrastructure. This paper summarizes the history and the technologies of SWIRLS/SWIRLS-Ⅱ and its variants and the associated nowcasting applications and services provided by the HKO since the mid 1990s.     

POSITION OF ARSENIC MINERALS IN THE METALLOGENIC SERIES.

The fact that there is certain definite order in the distribution of metallic ores around a central magma has now been generally recognized by economic geologists and its effects on the geographic distribution as well as     

ON THE MAGNESIAN CONTENT OF THE PRE-GAMBRIAN MARBLE IN NORTH CHINA.

The senior author has, since several years,~1 pointed out the high magnesian content in the upper Wutai formation in which frequently occur     

L''■GE DU MARBRE DE FANG CHAN ET SA TENEUR EN MAGNESIE

Le beau marbre qui entre dans une si grande proportion dans la construction des palais et des monuments a Peking vient d'une region situee a 60 kilometres environ (a vol d'oiseau) au sud-ouest de la Capitable. C'est une partie du plateau qui borde immediatement la plaine alluviable qu'on     

L''INFLUENCE SEISMOGENIQUE DE CERTAINES STRUCTURES GEOLOGIQUES EN CHINE.

Ⅰ. LES MATERIAUX ET LA METHODE D'ETUDE. LES TREMBLEMENTS DE TERRE EN CHINE. Le comte de Montessus de Ballore a fait, dans sa geographie seismolo-gique, les plus expresses reserves sur la seismicite de la Chine. Il croit     

粤港澳大湾区发展的理论框架与发展战略探究

粤港澳大湾区是在“一带一路”倡议下,由珠三角经济圈的强化合作而产生的新地理概念。作为新兴的全球化港湾,粤港澳大湾区如何突破新自由主义框架理论,探索出符合社会主义市场经济体制的发展路径,是当前决策者和规划者需要思考的重要问题。本文简要梳理了现有的城市群、区域增长极理论,新经济地理集群理论,全球产业链网络理论并结合大湾区现状优势,对湾区发展战略定位与发展路径进行探究,认为可通过粤港澳三方通力合作,创造一个内生型的经济与产业本土增长模式为主要方向。具体表现为：首先,要以先进制造业为立足点、实现自我创新的产业升级,形成完善的制造业产业链,并成为全球生产网络的重要节点与区域性枢纽;其次,大湾区还应利用自身的科研与教育、金融与创新资源优势,推进“一国两制三关税区”、尤其是与香港在大湾区建设中的全方位参与联动,完善产权制度,加强合规和规则经济的市场经济体系建设,将大湾区打造为中国的科创中心及全球性金融中心。     

Comparison of a Manual and an Automated Tracking Method for Tibetan Plateau Vortices

Tibetan Plateau vortices(TPVs) are mesoscale cyclones originating over the Tibetan Plateau(TP) during the extended summer season(April–September).Most TPVs stay on the TP,but a small number can move off the TP to the east.TPVs are known to be one of the main precipitation-bearing systems on the TP and moving-off TPVs have been associated with heavy precipitation and flooding downstream of the TP(e.g.,in Sichuan province or over the Yangtze River Valley).Identifying and tracking TPVs is difficult because of their comparatively small horizontal extent(400–800 km) and the limited availability of soundings over the TP,which in turn constitutes a challenge for short-term predictions of TPV-related impacts and for the climatological study of TPVs.In this study,(i) manual tracking(MT) results using radiosonde data from a network over and downstream of the TP are compared with(ii) results obtained by an automated tracking(AT) algorithm applied to ERA-Interim data.Ten MT-TPV cases are selected based on method(i) and matched to and compared with the corresponding AT-TPVs identified with method(ii).Conversely,ten AT-TPVs are selected and compared with the corresponding MT-TPVs.In general,the comparison shows good results in cases where the underlying data are in good agreement,but considerable differences are also seen in some cases and explained in terms of differences in the tracking methods,data availability/coverage and disagreement between sounding and ERA-Interim data.Recommendations are given for future efforts in TPV detection and tracking,including in an operational weather forecasting context.     

城市化视角下北京农村居住用地非正规市场的形成机理

针对北京快速城市化影响下的农村居住用地大量非法流转、亟待规范管理等现状特点,选择海淀区肖家河城中村和通州区张家湾镇小产权房分别作为非正规住房租赁市场和非正规土地交易市场,开展微观案例研究。结果表明:城乡二元土地制度是农村居住用地非正规市场形成与发育的制度根源,城市化快速发展与低价住房供应严重不足为其宏观背景,农民对现行土地征用与补偿制度的日益不满和主动争取分享土地增值收益的强烈意愿是其内在原因。非正规市场采用"低成本-低地租-高利润"的微观运作机理,市场参与个体(农民与消费者)可获得较好的经济收益,但也要承担较高的风险;对于城市与社区,非正规市场则会带来较严重的经济社会与资源环境等方面的负面影响。     

Recognition of disturbances with specified morphology in time series. Part 1: Spikes on magnetograms of the worldwide INTERMAGNET network

The International Real-time Magnetic Observatory Network (INTERMAGNET) is the world’s biggest international network of ground-based observatories, providing geomagnetic data almost in real time (within 72 hours of collection) [Kerridge, 2001]. The observation data are rapidly transferred by the observatories participating in the program to regional Geomagnetic Information Nodes (GINs), which carry out a global exchange of data and process the results. The observations of the main (core) magnetic field of the Earth and its study are one of the key problems of geophysics. The INTERMAGNET system is the basis of monitoring the state of the Earth’s magnetic field; therefore, the information provided by the system is required to be very reliable. Despite the rigid high-quality standard of the recording devices, they are subject to external effects that affect the quality of the records. Therefore, an objective and formalized recognition with the subsequent remedy of the anomalies (artifacts) that occur on the records is an important task. Expanding on the ideas of Agayan [Agayan et al., 2005] and Gvishiani [Gvishiani et al., 2008a; 2008b], this paper suggests a new algorithm of automatic recognition of anomalies with specified morphology, capable of identifying both physically- and anthropogenically-derived spikes on the magnetograms. The algorithm is constructed using fuzzy logic and, as such, is highly adaptive and universal. The developed algorithmic system formalizes the work of the expert-interpreter in terms of artificial intelligence. This ensures identical processing of large data arrays, almost unattainable manually. Besides the algorithm, the paper also reports on the application of the developed algorithmic system for identifying spikes at the INTERMAGNET observatories. The main achievement of the work is the creation of an algorithm permitting the almost unmanned extraction of spike-free (definitive) magnetograms from preliminary records. This automated system is developed for the first time with the application of fuzzy logic system for geomagnetic measurements. It is important to note that the recognition of time disturbances is formalized and identical. The algorithm presented here appreciably increases the reliability of spike-free INTERMAGNET magnetograms, thus increasing the objectivity of our knowledge of the Earth’s magnetic field. At the same time, the created system can accomplish identical, formalized, and retrospective analysis of large archives of digital and digitized magnetograms, accumulated in the system of Worldwide Data Centers. The relevant project has already been initiated as a collaborative initiative of the Worldwide Data Center at Geophysical Center (Russian Academy of Sciences) and the NOAA National Geophysical Data Center (Unite States). Thus, by improving and adding objectivity to both new and historical initial data, the developed algorithmic system may contribute appreciably to improving our understanding of the Earth’s magnetic field.     

Application of a multi‐temporal,LiDAR‐derived,digital terrain model in a landslide‐volume estimation

Sediments produced by landslides are crucial in the sediment yield of a catchment, debris flow forecasting, and related hazard assessment. On a regional scale, however, it is difficult and time consuming to measure the volumes of such sediment. This paper uses a LiDAR‐derived digital terrain model (DTM) taken in 2005 and 2010 (at 2 m resolution) to accurately obtain landslide‐induced sediment volumes that resulted from a single catastrophic typhoon event in a heavily forested mountainous area of Taiwan. The landslides induced by Typhoon Morakot are mapped by comparison of 25 cm resolution aerial photographs taken before and after the typhoon in an 83.6 km² study area. Each landslide volume is calculated by subtraction of the 2005 DTM from the 2010 DTM, and the scaling relationship between landslide area and its volume are further regressed. The relationship between volume and area are also determined for all the disturbed areas (V_L = 0.452A_L^1.242) and for the crown areas of the landslides (V_L = 2.510A_L^1.206). The uncertainty in estimated volume caused by use of the LiDAR DTMs is discussed, and the error in absolute volume estimation for landslides with an area >10⁵ m² is within 20%. The volume–area relationship obtained in this study is also validated in 11 small to medium‐sized catchments located outside the study area, and there is good agreement between the calculation from DTMs and the regression formula. By comparison of debris volumes estimated in this study with previous work, it is found that a wider volume variation exists that is directly proportional to the landslide area, especially under a higher scaling exponent. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.