Influence of uncertain boundary conditions and model structure on flood inundation predictions

In this study, the GLUE methodology is applied to establish the sensitivity of flood inundation predictions to uncertainty of the upstream boundary condition and bridges within the modelled region. An understanding of such uncertainties is essential to improve flood forecasting and floodplain mapping. The model has been evaluated on a large data set. This paper shows uncertainty of the upstream boundary can have significant impact on the model results, exceeding the importance of model parameter uncertainty in some areas. However, this depends on the hydraulic conditions in the reach e.g. internal boundary conditions and, for example, the amount of backwater within the modelled region. The type of bridge implementation can have local effects, which is strongly influenced by the bridge geometry (in this case the area of the culvert). However, the type of bridge will not merely influence the model performance within the region of the structure, but also other evaluation criteria such as the travel time. This also highlights the difficulties in establishing which parameters have to be more closely examined in order to achieve better fits. In this study no parameter set or model implementation that fulfils all evaluation criteria could be established. We propose four different approaches to this problem: closer investigation of anomalies; introduction of local parameters; increasing the size of acceptable error bounds; and resorting to local model evaluation. Moreover, we show that it can be advantageous to decouple the classification into behavioural and non-behavioural model data/parameter sets from the calculation of uncertainty bounds.     

Importance of geochemical transformations in determining submarine groundwater discharge-derived trace metal and nutrient fluxes

Seasonal (Spring and Summer 2002) concentrations of dissolved (<0.22 μm) trace metals (Ag, Al, Co, Cu, Mn, Ni, Pb), inorganic nutrients (NO₃, PO₄, Si), and DOC were determined in groundwater samples from 5 wells aligned along a 30 m shore-normal transect in West Neck Bay, Long Island, NY. Results show that significant, systematic changes in groundwater trace metal and nutrient composition occur along the flowpath from land to sea. While conservative mixing between West Neck Bay water and the groundwaters explains the behavior of Si and DOC, non-conservative inputs for Co and Ni were observed (concentration increases of 10- and 2-fold, respectively) and removal of PO₄ and NO₃ (decreases to about half) along the transport pathway. Groundwater-associated chemical fluxes from the aquifer to the embayment calculated for constituents not exhibiting conservative behavior can vary by orders of magnitude depending on sampling location and season (e.g. Co, 3.4 × 10²– 8.2 × 10³ μmol d⁻¹). Using measured values from different wells as being representative of the true groundwater endmember chemical composition also results in calculation of very different fluxes (e.g., Cu, 6.3 × 10³ μmol d⁻¹ (inland, freshwater well) vs. 2.1 × 10⁵ μmol d⁻¹(seaward well, S = 17 ppt)). This study suggests that seasonal variability and chemical changes occurring within the subterranean estuary must be taken into account when determining the groundwater flux of dissolved trace metals and nutrients to the coastal ocean.     

The influence of human activity in the Arctic on climate and climate impacts

Human activities in the Arctic are often mentioned as recipients of climate-change impacts. In this paper we consider the more complicated but more likely possibility that human activities themselves can interact with climate or environmental change in ways that either mitigate or exacerbate the human impacts. Although human activities in the Arctic are generally assumed to be modest, our analysis suggests that those activities may have larger influences on the arctic system than previously thought. Moreover, human influences could increase substantially in the near future. First, we illustrate how past human activities in the Arctic have combined with climatic variations to alter biophysical systems upon which fisheries and livestock depend. Second, we describe how current and future human activities could precipitate or affect the timing of major transitions in the arctic system. Past and future analyses both point to ways in which human activities in the Arctic can substantially influence the trajectory of arctic system change.     

Current Convenience,Desperate Deforestation: Ghana's AdjustmentProgram and the Forestry Sector

Since the early 1980s, most Sub-Saharan African countries have resorted to structural adjustment programs to reform their ailing economies. Adjustment, however, may provide a convenient means for governments of the adjusting economies and international capital to meet their current economic and political interests, usually by sacrificing the physical environment, with huge environmental costs for the adjusting country. This paper uses Ghana's forestry sector, which has been characterized by a dramatic increase in woodexports since adjustment, to demonstrate a direct link between adjustment and environmental destruction. Ghana's dramatic increase in wood exports, involving a rapid and extensive deforestation, results from the government's need to meet its increasing external debt service obligations, and is exacerbated by the series of massive local currency devaluation required under adjustment “to get prices right.” The systematic reduction in government revenue from devaluation to amortize the increasing debts, keeps the government and indebted wood processing firms on a treadmill of export-based extraction/deforestation.     

Magnesium self-diffusion in orthoenstatite

Magnesium self-diffusion coefficients were determined experimentally for diffusion parallel to each of the three crystallographic directions in natural orthoenstatite (En₈₈Fs₁₂). Experiments were conducted at 1 atm in CO-CO₂ gas mixing furnaces, which provided oxygen fugacities equivalent to the iron-wüstite buffer. Diffusion of ²⁵Mg was induced in polished samples of oriented orthoenstatite using a film of isotopically enriched ²⁵MgO as the source material. Very short (<0.15 μm) diffusional penetration profiles were measured by ion microprobe depth profiling. The diffusion coefficients determined for four temperatures (900, 850, 800, 750 °C) provide the activation energies, E _a , and frequency factors, D _o, where D = D _o exp (−E _a /RT) for Mg self-diffusion parallel to each crystallographic direction: a-axis, E _a  = 360 ± 52 kJ/mole and D _o = 1.10 × 10⁻⁴ m²/s; b-axis, E _a  = 339 ± 77 kJ/mole and D _o = 6.93 × 10⁻⁶ m²/s and c-axis, E _a  = 265 ± 66 kJ/mole and D _o = 4.34 × 10⁻⁹ m²/s. In this temperature range, any possible anisotropy of cation diffusion is very small, however the activation energy for diffusion parallel to the c-axis (001) is the lowest and the activation energies for diffusion parallel to the a-axis (100) and b-axis (010) are higher. Application of these diffusion results to the silicate phases of the Lowicz mesosiderite meteorite provides cooling rates for the silicate portion of the meteorite (4–11 °C/100 years) that are similar, although slower, to previous estimates. These silicate cooling rates are still several orders of magnitude faster than the cooling rates (0.1 °C/10⁶ years) for the metal portions. Received: 22 January 1997 / Accepted: 2 October 1997     

Seasonal dynamics of aggregates and their typical biocoenosis in the Elbe Estuary

In 1995, an extensive investigation was carried out in the Elbe Estuary in Germany. Special attention was paid to organisms, including bacteria, amoebae, ciliates, flagellates, rotifers, larvae ofDreissena polymorpha, and nematodes, dispersed in the water column and associated firmly or loosely with different types of aggregates. The abundance, size, and colonization by microorganisms of the aggregates varied during the seasons. The largest aggregates were found during spring and summer, when diatoms, rotifers, and crustaceans were present. The most aggregates were encountered in spring and from summer to autumn. Most of the species observed during the study were more common in pelagic habitats than in benthic ones. However, the presence of ciliates in the groups Hypotrichida and Sessilida as well as as flagellates in the groups Biosoecida, Cercomonadida, Choanoflagellida, Chrysomonadida, Kinetoplastida, and amoebae and some nematodes in the open water depends, upon the availability of surfaces, because they are sessile or poor swimnters, and some flagellates and amoebae need to attach themselves to an object to feed. Most organisms were much more abundant in or on aggregates than in the surrounding water during spring and summer, which indicates that aggregates enhance the habitat and promote the development of the organisms. From spring through autumn, the structure of the community associated with the aggregates is influenced by the pelagic environment. The presence of the species in the benthic community was detected only during summer.     

Optical, infrared and radio observations of the Seyfert galaxy Markarian 315

We report on new optical, infrared and radio observations of the Seyfert galaxy Markarian 315. We confirm the detection at all wavelengths of a secondary peak of emission, which lies ≈ 2 arcsec east of the Seyfert nucleus. Moreover, we detect a chain-like structure which surrounds the active nucleus, with peculiar behaviour westward of the nucleus. We consider different interpretations for the origin of the secondary peak emission.     

Climate response to astronomical forcing

Power spectrum analysis of the oxygen isotopic records of deep-sea cores cannot be directly used for correlation studies with the astronomical forcing functions because of the rapidity of the major deglaciations. The ensuing step change in the isotopic curves, repeated at somewhat irregular intervals, produces, in fact, substantial spectral energy in a wide frequency band that includes the frequencies of the precessional parameters.The isotopic fluctuations within the ramp sections of a composite core curve have been found to be highly correlated with the precessional parameters, indicating a linear response of climate to these parameters and verifying, at the same time, the essential correctness of the time scale adopted.A direct correlation of eccentricity with the major glacial/interglacial cycle is doubtful because some of the eccentricity minima have absolute values of the same order as some of the maxima, while the isotopic amplitude remains essentially constant. In order to test if the major cycle could be related to a terrestrial parameter exhibiting an asymmetric relaxation fluctuation, we have added an asymmetric saw-tooth function to an artificial curve constructed from the precessional parameters on the basis of optimal response amplitude. The curve thus generated reproduces the original isotopic curve with a similarity sufficient to warrant a close search and analysis of the relaxation process.     

Lunar glass compositions: Apollo 16 core sections 60002 and 60004

Approximately 500 glasses between 1 mm and 125 μm in size have been analyzed from fourteen samples from the Apollo 16 core sections 60002 and 60004. The majority of glasses have compositions comparable to those found in previous studies of lunar surface soils; however, two new and distinct glass compositions that are probably derived in part from mare material occur in the core samples. The major glass composition in all samples is that of Highland Basalt glass, but it also appears that high-K Fra Mauro Basalt (KREEP) glass is more common at the Apollo 16 site than was previously thought. The relative abundance of glasses within the core samples is random in distribution: each sample is characterized by a particular assemblage and distribution of the constituent glass compositions.