Downward migration of Chernobyl-derived radionuclides in soils in Poland and Sweden

Vertical profiles of ¹³⁷Cs and ^239,240Pu were measured in soils collected from two sites in southern Sweden and three sites in southern Poland and were modeled using both a solute transport model and a bioturbation model to better understand their downward migration. A time series of measured ¹³⁷Cs profiles indicates that ¹³⁷Cs from Chernobyl was found at the soil surface in 1986 but it has migrated progressively downward into the soil 4.5-25.5 cm since. However, because of dispersion during the migration and mixing following Chernobyl deposition and the much higher activities of ¹³⁷Cs from Chernobyl, stratospheric fallout of ¹³⁷Cs from the 1960s cannot be identified as a second ¹³⁷Cs activity maximum lower in the soil column at any of the sites. Conversely, the ²⁴⁰Pu/²³⁹Pu ratio indicates that no Chernobyl-derived Pu is present in any of the cores with the exception of one sample in Sweden. This difference may be attributed to the nature of the release from Chernobyl. Cesium volatilized at the reactor temperature during the accident, and was released as a vapor whereas Pu was not volatile and was only released in the form of minute fuel particles that traveled regionally. Both the solute diffusion and the bioturbation models accurately simulate the downward migration of the radionuclides at some sites but poorly describe the distributions at other sites. The distribution coefficients required by the solute transport model are about 100 times lower than reported values from the literature indicating that even though the solute transport model can simulate the profile shapes, transport as a solute is not the primary mechanism governing the downward migration of either Cs or Pu. The bioturbation model uses reported values from the literature of the distribution coefficients and can simulate the downward migration because that model buries the fallout by placing soil from depth on top and mixing it slightly throughout the mixing zone (0.6-2% per year of mixing). However, mixing in that model predicts concentrations in the top parts of the soil profiles which are too high in many cases. Future progress at understanding the downward migration of radionuclides and other tracers will require a more comprehensive approach, combining solute transport with bioturbation and including other important soil processes.     

Ecosystem-based marine spatial management: Review of concepts, policies, tools, and critical issues

Conventional sectoral management and piecemeal governance are considered less and less appropriate in pursuit of sustainable development. Ecosystem based marine spatial management (EB-MSM) is an approach that recognizes the full array of interactions within an ecosystem, including human uses, rather than considering single issues, species, or ecosystem services in isolation. Marine spatial planning and ocean zoning are emerging concepts that can support EB-MSM. EB-MSM is driven by high-level goals that managers aim to achieve through the implementation of measures. High-level goals and objectives need to be translated into more operational objectives before specific targets, limits and measures can be elaborated.Monitoring, evaluation and adaptation are necessary to ensure that marine management measures are both effective and efficient. Solid monitoring frameworks are the foundation of adaptive management, as they provide the necessary information to evaluate performance and the effectiveness of management actions. Marine protected areas (MPAs) - possibly set up in networks - constitute a key component in EB-MSM policies and practises and have been applied as a cornerstone in conservation of marine biodiversity, management of fish populations, development of coastal tourism, etc. Moreover, MPA experiences have provided methods and concepts (such as zoning) to a wider EB-MSM context. The assignment of values to biophysical features of the marine environment allows the direct assessment of related management choices and may assist EB-MSM.A range of monetary valuation techniques have been proposed to reduce attributes of goods and services to a single metric. However, in the marine environment such an approach is often over simplistic, and thus less reductive techniques may be necessary. Rather than producing a single metric, the results of non-monetary assessments guide policy allowing weight to be given as necessary to potential areas of conflict and consensus.Strategies to take into account climate change effects and geohazard risks in EB-MSM have been applied or proposed worldwide. EB-MSM regimes must be alert to such risks and flexible to account for changes.     

Key factors affecting the future provision of tree-based forest ecosystem goods and services

The continuous provisioning of forest ecosystem goods and services (EGS) is of considerable interest to society. To provide insights on how much EGS provision will change with a changing climate and which factors will influence this change the most, we simulated forest stands on six climatically different sites in Central Europe under several scenarios of species diversity, management, and climate change. We evaluated the influence of these factors on the provision of a range of tree-based EGS, represented by harvested basal area, total biomass, stand diversity, and productivity. The most influential factor was species diversity, with diverse forest stands showing a lower sensitivity to climate change than monocultures. Management mainly influenced biomass, with the most intensively managed stands retaining more of their original biomass than others. All three climate-change scenarios yielded very similar results. We showed that (1) only few factor combinations perform worse under climate-change conditions than others, (2) diversity aspects are important for adaptive management measures, but for some indicators, management may be more important than diversity, and (3) at locations subject to increasing drought, the future provision of EGS may decrease regardless of the factor combination. This quantitative evaluation of the influence of different factors on changes in the provision of forest EGS with climate change represents an important step towards the design of more focused adaptation strategies and highlights key factors that should be considered in simulation studies under climate change.     

The importance of health co-benefits in macroeconomic assessments of UK Greenhouse Gas emission reduction strategies

We employ a single-country dynamically-recursive Computable General Equilibrium model to make health-focussed macroeconomic assessments of three contingent UK Greenhouse Gas (GHG) mitigation strategies, designed to achieve 2030 emission targets as suggested by the UK Committee on Climate Change. In contrast to previous assessment studies, our main focus is on health co-benefits additional to those from reduced local air pollution. We employ a conservative cost-effectiveness methodology with a zero net cost threshold. Our urban transport strategy (with cleaner vehicles and increased active travel) brings important health co-benefits and is likely to be strongly cost-effective; our food and agriculture strategy (based on abatement technologies and reduction in livestock production) brings worthwhile health co-benefits, but is unlikely to eliminate net costs unless new technological measures are included; our household energy efficiency strategy is likely to breakeven only over the long term after the investment programme has ceased (beyond our 20 year time horizon). We conclude that UK policy makers will, most likely, have to adopt elements which involve initial net societal costs in order to achieve future emission targets and longer-term benefits from GHG reduction. Cost-effectiveness of GHG strategies is likely to require technological mitigation interventions and/or demand-constraining interventions with important health co-benefits and other efficiency-enhancing policies that promote internalization of externalities. Health co-benefits can play a crucial role in bringing down net costs, but our results also suggest the need for adopting holistic assessment methodologies which give proper consideration to welfare-improving health co-benefits with potentially negative economic repercussions (such as increased longevity).     

A comment on an analytical stellar model

Recently, an analytical stellar model was presented. We show that the results are incorrect as they stand.     

Thermodynamics of Geysers: Application to Titan

General constraints on geyser phenomena are developed and applied to speculative methane geysers on Titan. Variation of boiling point with depth of ethane-methane-nitrogen fluids is found to be of order 0.3 K m⁻¹, in contrast with around 2 K m⁻¹ for water on Earth. It is found that geysers are possible on Titan but require enhancements of ∼100 above global-average geothermal heat flux, a factor similar to that required on Earth. Eruption velocities of order 25 m s⁻¹ appear to be typical for 10-m-deep geyser vents on both Earth and Titan. While eruption velocities on Earth are usually limited by the low sound speed in water-steam mixtures, sound speeds in Titan fluids are higher and the Titan limit is imposed by the available energy in the boiling fluid. Eruption intervals should be nearly the same for geysers with equivalent plumbing. There is an interesting symmetry between geysers on Titan and those on Earth: The volatility of the relevant fluid scales with the available heat flow.     

Metallographic cooling rates of group IIF iron meteorites

Abstract— Metallographic cooling rates have been calculated for all five members of the iron meteorites group IIF using two different techniques. We have determined cooling rates of ～5 °C/Ma based on Ni profiles through the taenite rim enclosing kamacite spindles. Ni profiles through the kamacite phase are less precise cooling rate indicators, but suggest a cooling rate of ～1 °C/Ma within an order of magnitude at lower temperatures (360–400 °C). Based on the kamacite bandwidth and the Ni profiles through the taenite, we estimate that the kamacite nucleated 130–200 °C below the temperature predicted from the phase diagram. The size of and the distance between the large kamacite spindles is found to be consistent with the thermal history that we have determined on the basis of Ni profiles in kamacite and taenite. We find that previously published kamacite bandwidth cooling rates for the five group IIF members are most likely in error because of the presence of large schreibersite spindles in some kamacite spindles and because undercooling of kamacite was ignored. Contrary to previous workers we find that the metallographic cooling rates are consistent with cooling in a common core.     

Warming permafrost in European mountains

Here we present the first systematic measurements of European mountain permafrost temperatures from a latitudinal transect of six boreholes extending from the Alps, through Scandinavia to Svalbard. Boreholes were drilled in bedrock to depths of at least 100 m between May 1998 and September 2000. Geothermal profiles provide evidence for regional-scale secular warming, since all are nonlinear, with near-surface warm-side temperature deviations from the deeper thermal gradient. Topographic effects lead to variability between Alpine sites. First approximation estimates, based on curvature within the borehole thermal profiles, indicate a maximum ground surface warming of +1 °C in Svalbard, considered to relate to thermal changes in the last 100 years. In addition, a 15-year time series of thermal data from the 58-m-deep Murtèl–Corvatsch permafrost borehole in Switzerland, drilled in creeping frozen ice-rich rock debris, shows an overall warming trend, but with high-amplitude interannual fluctuations that reflect early winter snow cover more strongly than air temperatures. Thus interpretation of the deeper borehole thermal histories must clearly take account of the potential effects of changing snow cover in addition to atmospheric temperatures.