El Niño–Southern Oscillation diversity and Southern Africa teleconnections during Austral Summer

Climate Dynamics - A wide range of sea surface temperature (SST) expressions have been observed during the El Niño–Southern Oscillation events of 1950–2010, which have occurred...     

The regional forcing of Northern hemisphere drought during recent warm tropical west Pacific Ocean La Niña events

Northern Hemisphere circulations differ considerably between individual El Niño-Southern Oscillation events due to internal atmospheric variability and variation in the zonal location of sea surface temperature forcing over the tropical Pacific Ocean. This study examines the similarities between recent Northern Hemisphere droughts associated with La Niña events and anomalously warm tropical west Pacific sea surface temperatures during 1988–1989, 1998–2000, 2007–2008 and 2010–2011 in terms of the hemispheric-scale circulations and the regional forcing of precipitation over North America and Asia during the cold season of November through April. The continental precipitation reductions associated with recent central Pacific La Niña events were most severe over North America, eastern Africa, the Middle East and southwest Asia. High pressure dominated the entire Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes and weakened and displaced storm tracks northward over North America into central Canada. Regionally over North America and Asia, the position of anomalous circulations within the zonal band of mid-latitude high pressure varied between each La Niña event. Over the northwestern and southeastern United States and southern Asia, the interactions of anomalous circulations resulted in consistent regional temperature advection, which was subsequently balanced by similar precipitation-modifying vertical motions. Over the central and northeastern United States, the spatial variation of anomalous circulations resulted in modest inter-seasonal temperature advection variations, which were balanced by varying vertical motion and precipitation patterns. Over the Middle East and eastern Africa, the divergence of moisture and the advection of dry air due to anomalous circulations enhanced each of the droughts.     

La Niña diversity and Northwest Indian Ocean Rim teleconnections

The differences in tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) expressions of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events of the same phase have been linked with different global atmospheric circulation patterns. This study examines the dynamical forcing of precipitation during October–December (OND) and March–May (MAM) over East Africa and during December–March (DJFM) over Central-Southwest Asia for 1950–2010 associated with four tropical Pacific SST patterns characteristic of La Niña events, the cold phase of ENSO. The self-organizing map method along with a statistical distinguishability test was used to isolate La Niña events, and seasonal precipitation forcing was investigated in terms of the tropical overturning circulation and thermodynamic and moisture budgets. Recent La Niña events with strong opposing SST anomalies between the central and western Pacific Ocean (phases 3 and 4), force the strongest global circulation modifications and drought over the Northwest Indian Ocean Rim. Over East Africa during MAM and OND, subsidence is forced by an enhanced tropical overturning circulation and precipitation reductions are exacerbated by increases in moisture flux divergence. Over Central-Southwest Asia during DJFM, the thermodynamic forcing of subsidence is primarily responsible for precipitation reductions, with moisture flux divergence acting as a secondary mechanism to reduce precipitation. Eastern Pacific La Niña events in the absence of west Pacific SST anomalies (phases 1 and 2), are associated with weaker global teleconnections, particularly over the Indian Ocean Rim. The weak regional teleconnections result in statistically insignificant precipitation modifications over East Africa and Central-Southwest Asia.     

Melting phase relations of a mica–clinopyroxenite from the Milk River area, southern Alberta, Canada

Melting experiments were conducted on a mica–clinopyroxenite xenolith brought up in a minette dyke in southern Alberta, Canada, near Milk River. Both the minettes and mica–clinopyroxenite xenoliths were studied by Buhlmann et al. (Can J Earth Sci 37:1629–1650, 2000), who hypothesized that the minettes formed by partial melting of a mantle source containing clinopyroxene + phlogopite ± olivine, at pressures ≥1.7 GPa. In liquidus experiments performed on the most primitive minette in our previous study (Funk and Luth in Contrib Mineral Petrol 164:999–1009, 2012), we found a multiple saturation point where olivine and orthopyroxene coexisted with liquid at 1.77 GPa and 1,350 °C. We argued that the minette originally formed by partial melting of clinopyroxene + phlogopite, but had re-equilibrated with a harzburgite during ascent. In the current study, we wanted to test both the source region hypothesis of Buhlmann et al. and our re-equilibration hypothesis by studying the near-solidus phase equilibria of a mica + clinopyroxene assemblage. We found the solidus for our xenolith has a steep slope in P–T space and lies at temperatures above those of a normal cratonic geotherm, implying that this mica–clinopyroxenite is stable in the cratonic mantle. Melting could occur at greater depths, where the solidus is extrapolated to cross the geotherm or must be induced either by raising the temperatures of the surrounding rocks or by introducing hydrous fluids into the source. Our melts are in equilibrium with clinopyroxene and olivine. The compositions of the liquids derived from melting this xenolith are similar to madupitic lamproites from the Leucite Hills, Wyoming, studied by Carmichael (Contrib Mineral Petrol 15:24–66, 1967) and Barton and Hamilton (Contrib Mineral Petrol 66:41–49, 1978; Contrib Mineral Petrol 69:133–142, 1979). Barton and Hamilton (Contrib Mineral Petrol 69:133–142, 1979) proposed that the madupitic lamproites may have come from a source containing mica and pyroxene. This study supports their hypothesis. The composition of the most primitive minette from southern Alberta lies between our experimental melt and a population of representative mantle orthopyroxenes. We conclude from our study that the Milk River minettes were likely derived from a source containing phlogopite, clinopyroxene and trace amounts of apatite, which formed olivine upon melting. During ascent, the melts changed composition by reacting with orthopyroxene.     

Exchange orbits: an interesting case of co-orbital motion

In this investigation we treat a special configuration of two celestial bodies in 1:1 mean motion resonance namely the so-called exchange orbits. There exist—at least—theoretically—two different types: the exchange-a orbits and the exchange-e orbits. The first one is the following: two celestial bodies are in orbit around a central body with almost the same semi-major axes on circular orbits. Because of the relatively small differences in semi-major axes they meet from time to time and exchange their semi-major axes. The inner one then moves outside the other planet and vice versa. The second configuration one is the following: two planets are moving on nearly the same orbit with respect to the semi-major axes, one on a circular orbit and the other one on an eccentric one. During their dynamical evolution they change the characteristics of the orbit, the circular one becomes an elliptic one whereas the elliptic one changes its shape to a circle. This ‘game’ repeats periodically. In this new study we extend the numerical computations for both of these exchange orbits to the three dimensional case and in another extension treat also the problem when these orbits are perturbed from a fourth body. Our results in form of graphs show quite well that for a large variety of initial conditions both configurations are stable and stay in these exchange orbits.     

Recent summer precipitation trends in the Greater Horn of Africa and the emerging role of Indian Ocean sea surface temperature

We utilize a variety of climate datasets to examine impacts of two mechanisms on precipitation in the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) during northern-hemisphere summer. First, surface-pressure gradients draw moist air toward the GHA from the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Congo Basin. Variability of the strength of these gradients strongly influences GHA precipitation totals and accounts for important phenomena such as the 1960s–1980s rainfall decline and devastating 1984 drought. Following the 1980s, precipitation variability became increasingly influenced by the southern tropical Indian Ocean (STIO) region. Within this region, increases in sea-surface temperature, evaporation, and precipitation are linked with increased exports of dry mid-tropospheric air from the STIO region toward the GHA. Convergence of dry air above the GHA reduces local convection and precipitation. It also produces a clockwise circulation response near the ground that reduces moisture transports from the Congo Basin. Because precipitation originating in the Congo Basin has a unique isotopic signature, records of moisture transports from the Congo Basin may be preserved in the isotopic composition of annual tree rings in the Ethiopian Highlands. A negative trend in tree-ring oxygen-18 during the past half century suggests a decline in the proportion of precipitation originating from the Congo Basin. This trend may not be part of a natural cycle that will soon rebound because climate models characterize Indian Ocean warming as a principal signature of greenhouse-gas induced climate change. We therefore expect surface warming in the STIO region to continue to negatively impact GHA precipitation during northern-hemisphere summer.     

Neubenennungen lithostratigraphischer Einheiten in der Helvetischen Kreide

In September 2007 Föllmi and coauthors requested the approval of four lithostratigraphic terms of the Swiss Committee of Stratigraphy (SCS). These terms were to be used in their publication on the Cretaceous in the Helvetic realm (Föllmi et al. 2007). At its meeting on October 18, 2007, the SCS decided the following: The Tierwis Formation (replacing the Drusberg Formation) was accepted, with the reserve that a section at Tierwis should be published in the near future. For the former “Lower Orbitolina Beds” the term Rawil Member was accepted, but here too a better type section than the one at Rawil Pass should be published. The term Rohrbachstein bed should not be used as a formal unit because it describes only a minor lithologic variation within the Grünten Member. The term Plaine Morte bed for a thin condensed horizon can not be accepted due to the fact that its definition is based mainly on biostratigraphy. Furthermore, the duplication a locality term which is in use for a previously established lithostratigraphic unit should be avoided.     

Late Pleistocene raised beaches of coastal Estremadura,central Portugal

We present new stratigraphic, sedimentological, and chronological data for a suite of tectonically raised beaches dating to Marine Isotope Stages 5, 4, and 3 along the Estremadura coast of west-central Portugal. The beach deposits are found in association with ancient tidal channels and coastal dunes, pollen bearing mud and peat, and Middle Paleolithic archaeological sites that confirm occupation of the coastal zone by Neanderthal populations. The significance of these deposits is discussed in terms of the archaeological record, the tectonic and geomorphic evolution of the coast, and correlation with reconstructions of global climate and eustatic sea-level change. Direct correlation between the Estremadura beach sections is complicated by the tectonic complexity of the area and the age of the beach deposits (which are near or beyond the limit of radiocarbon dating). Evidence from multiple sites dated by AMS radiocarbon and optical luminescence methods suggests broad synchroneity in relative sea-level changes along this coast during Marine Isotope Stage 3. Two beach complexes with luminescence and radiocarbon age control date to about 35 ka and 42 ka, recording a rise in relative sea level around the time of Heinrich Event 4 at 39 ka. Depending on assumptions about eustatic sea level at the time they were deposited, we estimate that these beaches have been uplifted at rates of 0.4–4.3 mm yr^?1 by the combined effects of tectonic, halokinetic, and isostatic processes. Uplift rates of 1–2 mm yr^?1 are likely if the beaches represent sea level stands at roughly 40 m below modern, as suggested by recent eustatic sea level reconstructions. Evidence from coastal bluffs and the interior of the study area indicates extensive colluvial, fluvial, and aeolian sedimentation beginning around 31 ka and continuing into the Holocene. These geomorphic adjustments are related to concomitant changes in climate and sea level, providing context that improves our understanding of Late Pleistocene landscape change and human occupation on the western Iberian margin.     

Resonances in Multiple Planetary Systems

Since the first extrasolar planet was discovered about 10 years ago, a major point of dynamical investigations was the determination of stable regions in extrasolar planetary systems where additional planets may exist. Using numerical methods, we investigate the dynamical stability in known multiple planetary systems (HD74156, HD38529, HD168443, HD169830) with special interest on the region between the two known planets and on the mean motion resonances inside this region. As a dynamical model we take the restricted 4-body problem containing the host star, the two planets and massless test-planets. For our numerical integrations, we used the Lie-integrator and additionally the Fast Lyapunov Indicators as a tool for detecting chaotic motion. We also investigated the inner resonances with the outer planet and the outer resonances with the inner planet with test-planets located inside the resonances.     

Developing seasonal rainfall scenarios for food security early warning

Rainfed agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa accounts for 95 % of the local cereal production, impacting hundreds of millions of people. Early identification of poor rainfall conditions is a critical indicator of food security. As such, monitoring accumulated seasonal rainfall gives an important mid-season estimate of final accumulated totals. However, characterizing the remaining uncertainty in a season has largely been ignored by the food security community. This paper presents a new technique describing rainfall conditions over the duration of a crop-growing cycle by combining estimated rainfall-to-date with potential scenarios for the remaining season based on available satellite rainfall estimates, the common tool for rainfall analysis in Africa. The limited historical record provided by satellite rainfall estimates using previous seasons provides only a coarse view of likely seasonal totals. To combat this, scenarios developed by bootstrapping dekadal data to create synthetic seasons allow for a finer understanding of potential seasonal accumulations. Updating this throughout the season shows a narrowing envelope of seasonal totals, converging on the final seasonal result. The resulting scenarios inform the expectations for the final seasonal rainfall accumulation, allowing analysts to quantify and visualize the uncertainty in seasonal totals. Giving decision makers a tool for understanding the likelihood of specific rainfall amounts provides additional time to enact and mobilize efforts to reduce the impact of agricultural drought.